French Open – Women’s Preview – 21 May 2010

French Open – Women’s Preview – 21 May 2010

The anticipation before the start of any Grand Slam is palpable.  A world of possibility exists.  Who will rise to the top, who will seize the opportunity for greatness?  Possibly because it seems the Williams sisters weakest surface, the French in particular has seemed the most open and up for grabs of the female GS events.  At least since its domination by Justine Henin and her three straight titles.  Now that she’s back, can Henin build on her 21 match undefeated streak here?

First Quarter

Everyone knows Justine is a favourite at the French, perhaps THE favourite.  The bookies have her pegged at the top, followed closely by Serena.  So it is undoubtedly a shame that these two land in the same quarter.  The ranking/seeding system in women’s tennis just can’t handle situations like this.  Surely there must be some way to build in a little more flexibility for tournament directors when it comes to seeding.

At least the fateful clash between Henin and Serena isn’t likely to happen until the quarters.  But are they really both likely to make it that far?  Henin looked very shaky in a loss to a having-the-week-of-her-life Rezai in Madrid.  And her first round opponent, Pironkova, took out Dementieva this week in Warsaw.  Should Henin survive that, she may face dangerous veteran Zakopalova in the second round, who has wins over Safina and Serena on clay.  Henin could then get Sharapova in round 3 (a finalist in Warsaw this week), and last year’s semifinalist, Stosur, in the round of 16.  Stosur has to be considered among the top picks for this year’s tournament and wants to improve on last year’s fine performance.  In this quarter her work is cut out for her.

Serena seems to have a much easier draw:  a potential third-rounder against Pavlyuchenkova might be the only real test.  So when it comes time to meet Henin in the QF, should they both make it that far, Henin will likely be more tested, but Serena may be fresher.  Serena has been making noise about wanting a 2^nd French title.  She looks determined.  Which is fearsome.

Still, it’s hard to argue against the superiority of Henin’s gorgeous clay game, drenched in variety and thoughtful shot selection.  At this level in sports it usually comes down to heart.

S Williams def Henin

Second quarter

The top seeds in this quarter are Jankovic and Agnieszka Radwanska, but there are other dangerous players here as well, including slumping two-time finalist Safina, resurfacing 2008 champion Ivanovic, the always unpredictable Zvonareva, up and coming Yanina Wickmayer, and potential spoilers Kleybanova and Suarez Navarro. 

Safina has an excellent draw and a natural clay game.  She has descended sharply since her 26 weeks at #1 last year and may be playing closer to #50 than her current ranking of #9.  If she can get some wins under belt, she could yet prove dangerous.  The same is true of Ivanovic, who showed promise in reaching the semis in Rome.

Radwanska is a model of consistency but doesn’t seem to have the big weapons to beat the best players – still it might be enough to get her deep into this quarter.  Mercurial and talented, Zvonareva made the final at Charleston.  What she may do here is anyone’s guess.

With a win at Indian Wells, a runner-up in Rome, and the resultant re-ascent to #4 in the rankings, Jankovic is the likely favourite for this quarter.

Jankovic def Zvonareva

Third Quarter

Possibly the most wide open, this quarter features last year’s winner Kuznetsova and last year’s US Open finalist Wozniacki as the top seeds.  Their choice as likely quarter-final opponents would be easy were it not for the shocking form of Kuznetsova this year and the recent re-injury to Wozniacki’s ankle.

Kuznetsova’s win-loss tally this year is an abysmal sub-.500 at 8-9, with only one win on clay.  She clearly has the talent to do well here, but her mind seems to be elsewhere.   She faces the dangerous Cirstea in the first round and could run into Vesnina or Petkovic in the second round, both of whom have the talent to beat her.

Wozniacki’s ankle forced her retirement in Warsaw, just days before the French kicks off and makes her a very risky choice to advance far here.

A possible third-rounder for Wozniacki is Dulgheru who is into her second straight final in Warsaw, after winning there last year.  The Romanian has shown the ability to win some big matches with victories over Safina and Dementieva this year.  Safarova, Pennetta, and the talented youngster Hercog are also in her section.

Schiavone or Li may well be the favourites in this quarter, given the question marks around the other seeds, but they are in the same half.

Dulgheru def Schiavone

Fourth Quarter

The four highest seeds in this quarter are VWilliams, Dementieva, Azarenka, and Rezai, and unlike the previous, they may actually be the favourites here.

Venus has the tour’s best winning percentage this year.  But she has a tough first rounder in wily veteran Patty Schnyder.  By the fourth round she could run into Rezai who defeated her in the Madrid final, or the always dangerous Petrova.

Azarenka could face Rome winner Martinez Sanchez in an exciting R32 clash.  Meanwhile, Dementieva has a reasonable draw through to the fourth round.  Given her talent, Dementieva could go all the way here, but she seems to have fallen off a little this year and one always suspects the head as she gets deeper into GS events.

Despite the snares in Venus’ path, no one else seems a likely winner here.

V Williams def Dementieva

First Semi

If Serena can make it out of her murderous quarter she has an excellent chance to go all the way, however a confident and in form Jankovic should not be under-estimated.  Again, it comes down to heart.

S Williams def Jankovic

Second Semi

Given the inexplicably bad losses Venus has suffered this year, predicting her going deep here seems  perilous, but the field in the bottom half of the draw does not seem strong.  I expect I’m wrong about both semi-finalists, but in the absence of a crystal ball...

V Williams def Dulgheru

Final

Venus would dearly like revenge for her final round loss here to little sister in 2002 but I doubt she will get it.

S Williams def V Williams

Average odds from bookies.com just before the draw was posted

1.       Henin 3.01

2.       S Williams 6.23

3.       Jankovic 7.24

4.       V Williams 11.95

5.       Stosur 15.70

6.       Rezai 17.64

7.       Dementieva 20.74

8.       Kuznetsova 23.11

9.       Azarenka 23.75

10.   Wozniacki 24.44

11.   Martinez Sanchez 27.82

12.   Ivanovic 30.08

13.   Safina 32.67

14.   Wickmayer 32.97

15.   Zvonareva 40.11

16.   Sharapova 47.56