Men – Yearend 2011 and 2012 Predictions

Men – Yearend 2011 and 2012 Predictions

Has tennis ever been played better?  There is no doubt that Novak Djokovic is #1 for 2011.  He was simply spectacular in winning 3 majors and 10 titles overall.  But how does his year stack up to past greats?  And can he keep it up?  He was fading at the end of the year.  Was it just injuries or is he burnt out?  Who will be #1 in 2012?

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic lost in his last four tournaments of 2010. He then led his country to victory in the Davis Cup.  Who would have thought this would be the impetus to launch one of the most successful seasons in professional tennis?  He seemed to gain momentum after his Australian victory and fought his way through two 3-set victories over Nadal in Indian Wells and Miami. 

But the clay season was still to come.  Had Djokovic raised his game or was Nadal losing confidence, or a combination of both?  Novak proceeded to score straight set victories over Nadal in Madrid and Rome, Rafa’s first clay losses since Soderling beat him at the French in 2009.  Novak became the favourite for Roland Garros.  But an old wisdom was lurking.  Roger Federer showed his velvet fist, ending a 43 match win streak and came within a point of derailing him again at the US Open.

But Djokovic added the Wimbledon and US Open titles to his haul, totalling 10 titles for the year to that point.  He had lost only twice, the second time a retirement to Murray in the Cincinnati final.  This bettered Federer’s 2005 to date in which Roger lost 3 times before the US Open (but only 4 times all year) and 2006 (5 losses before the USO and all year) and equalled John McEnroe’s two losses in 1984 also at the French and Cincinnati coincidentally, although McEnroe would finish the year with only 3 losses.  But losses piled up in the yearend swing.  At yearend, Djokovic’s 2011 ranks 11^th in the Open era (since 1968) for match win-loss percentage.

Here are the top 5 years and the bests of some notable pros.

Rank	Player	Year	Wins	Losses	%	Titles	GS Titles
1	McEnroe	1984	82	3	96.5	13	2
2	Federer	2005	81	4	95.3	11	2
3	Federer	2006	92	5	94.8	12	3
4	Connors	1974	94	6	94.0	14	3
5	Borg	1979	84	6	93.3	12	2
6	Connors	1976	90	7	92..8	12	1
7	Federer	2004	74	6	92.5	11	3
7	Lendl	1986	74	6	92.5	9	2
11	Djokovic	2011	70	6	92.1	10	3
17	Vilas	1977	145	14	91.2	17	2
25+	Nadal*	2010	71	10	87.7	7	3
30+	Laver	1969	106	16	86.9	17	4
30+	Sampras	1994	77	12	86.5	10	2

* Nadal’s best % was 88.8 in 2005 with 11 titles but only 1 GS

I would argue that Connors in 1974 and Federer in 2006 had more desirable years than Djokovic based on the same number of slams, but greater winning percentages and more overall tournament victories.  I’d also give the nod to Laver in 1969 for winning the Grand Slam and 17 titles, despite the greater number of losses.  But it’s close to a toss up for me between Djokovic’s 2011 and McEnroe’s 1984.  The preponderance of 3 slams could tip the balance for Djokovic’s 2011, but McEnroe’s uncanny refusal to lose in 1984 argues that the dominance he exerted over his rivals (he lost only 4 games in the Wimbledon final, for example) was not matched by Novak.  I’d rate Federer’s 2004 slightly behind because I don’t think Federer exhibited quite the sustained dominance that Novak did this year through the USO.  So overall Djokovic’s 2011 rates 5^th in my books.

Novak claims to have embarked on a gluten-free diet and found a self-belief that allowed him to finally rise to the top and demonstrate the depth of his potential.  For most of the year he was a paragon of fitness outlasting the fierce tenaciousness of Nadal and Federer when the chips were down.  But he seemed to fade toward the end of the year, retiring to Murray and Del Potro, fading against Nishikori, withdrawing midway through the Paris 1000, and then losing to Ferrer and Berdych at the YEC.

Is the tiredness mental or physical?  Certainly he played a lot of matches, but 70 in a year is not crippling, and the above table would back that up.  He does play a very physical game unmatched in body-pounding by past decades’ play, but I’d be hard-pressed to say that it’s harder than Nadal’s.  Is his body giving out?

I suspect more likely it is the mind and will that have become exhausted by toughing out 6 victories over Nadal and 4 over Federer during the course of a long season.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Djokovic emerges refreshed and eager for 2012 at the Australian.  I think that the gains his game made in 2011 are real and see no reason why they should not translate into 2012.  Of course the perpetual hunger that is Nadal will be in hotter pursuit than ever, and old man Federer will have the increasing urgency of decrepitude urging him to squeeze the utmost from his talent while he can.  So while I don’t expect Djokovic to play any worse than he did in 2011, it wouldn’t surprise me if the same level of play did not yield an equal number of titles in 2012.  I put him as the slightest of favourites for Wimbledon and the US Open, but I expect 2012 to be a brutal cage fight among the big four, the blood and honours flowing almost equally among them.

Rafael Nadal

After the splendour of 2010, only the boldest of seers would have prophesied only 3 overall titles for this all-time great at his physical peak (age 25).  But the numbers deceive.  Nadal featured in three slam finals (claiming the French) and 10 finals overall, losing 6 times to Djokovic and once to Murray.  Any other man making 3 slam finals would count it a banner year.  But after finally freeing himself from the long shadow of Federer, his time in the sun was unexpectedly darkened by the emergence of Djokovic.  Nadal’s career has indeed been situated in perilous times.

He has shown every indication that the #2 slot inspires him, pushes him toward more determination and improved play.  And this is exactly what I will expect from him in 2012.  His ace in the hole is the clay swing.  He won’t be the favourite in Australia, and he may or may not cop a 1000 in the southern US, but come clay time, he will be the favourite, with 7 consecutive victories at Monte Carlo poised to propel him to an 8^th, resulting in a wave of confidence that he will surf through Roland Garros and maybe beyond.  He is already tied with Borg in holding a record 6 French titles and will be the odds on favourite to claim another title and stand alone with 7 titles.

As comprehensive as Djokovic’s clay victories looked last year, Nadal is still king of the sand-box.  I’ll change my tune if Novak hoists the Coupe des Mousquetaires, but I expect clay is the first place that Djokovic will lose ground in 2012.

On the whole however, I expect that Nadal’s future highs will not match what has gone before.  Certainly the trend among multiple slam winners is to peak at age 25 at the latest.  The following chart can look a bit bewildering, but pick a colour and follow it across and it’s not so bad.

The message of this chart (which perahps can't be seen - depending on your browser) is that all of these greats, all of whom have won more than 7 GS titles (except McEnroe at 7), had their best match winning percentage at age 25 or earlier.  The Age axis signals the end of year winning percentage for the year in which the player turned that age.  It shows that the peak year for winning percentage was at age 25 for McEnroe, Lendl, and Agassi.  Federer peaked at 24, Borg and Sampras peaked at age 23, and Connors at 22.  Nadal’s best year on this scale was at age 19 (2005) although few would argue that his best year overall was likely 2010 (age 24) when he won 3 GS titles.  Nadal could certainly regain #1 and win more slams, but overall, I expect he will be declining slightly from now on.

Regardless, Nadal will be among the favourites at Wimbledon.  He’s been in the final the last 5 times he’s played.  At the USO, Nadal has made the last two finals and won or lost to the eventual champion the last 3 years.  The least stumble from Djokovic and Nadal could have a 3 GS, 10 tournament year of his own.  His career is far from over.

Roger Federer

2011 was the first year since 2003 that Federer did not win a GS title.  His 8 consecutive years winning a major is tied only by Sampras and Borg.  Federer’s 432 consecutive weeks in the top 3 on the computer ended in Oct.  This is the second longest streak of all time, bested only by Ivan Lendl who notched about 460 straight weeks in the 1980’s, and ahead of Sampras with 391 consecutive weeks in the 90’s.  Federer’s streak of 346 weeks in the top 2 ended July 2010 and is well ahead of the second best number posted by Jimmy Connors at around 290. 

These are career accomplishments and their very existence signals a career that is likely nearing its end.  But Federer is unusually talented and it would surprise no one if he were to rise up again and claim a slam title, even if he never again musters the week-in week-out consistency to claim #1.  Federer looks healthy and hungrier than Sampras at the same stage of his career.  Sampras won zero titles in the year he turned 30, but Federer surged at the end of this year winning 15 straight matches to raise his yearend title count to four.  Federer was actually a fairly late starter when it comes to winning GS titles.  Sampras won the 8^th GS event he entered, Nadal his 6^th.  Maybe Federer will extend his career longer because of his late start.

	GS events to first GS win
Wilander	3
Becker	4
Borg	5
Nadal	6
McEnroe	7
Sampras	8
Connors	10
Agassi	15
Federer	17
Lendl	18

Assessing his chances at the slams, I think he will fare best on hard courts.  Despite the 6 titles at Wimbledon, he has managed only QF there the last two years.  Overall Federer may still be close to best in the world indoors.  It seems the more predictable the conditions the better he plays, and in the outdoor environment hard courts probably offer the least variation – especially at the Australian Open where he may play indoors.  Maybe he should pray for a rainy Wimbledon and a chance to play under the roof.  Although he likely won’t be the favourite at any of the slams, there’s no reason he couldn’t win any of them.  The battle he gave Nadal in the French final this year was memorable.

Interesting stat:  Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal have similar results in the last 4 US Opens.  All have one win, one runner –up, and two semi-final finishes.

Record watch:  Federer is just 5 matches from overtaking Jimmy Connors as the winner of the greatest number of GS matches for all time.

Andy Murray

It must be flattering to be considered part of the Big 4 for Andy Murray, but also frustrating – he is the only one not to have a Major singles title.  He is playing in the time of (possibly) three of the all-time greats[1] and there simply is not a lot of room at the top.  Yet this marks his 4^th yearend top 4 finish and in some ways has been his best year so far.  Murray made at least the SF at all four majors this year, by far his most consistent year at the slams.

	Australian Open	Roland Garros	Wimbledon	US Open	Matches played
2011	RU	SF	SF	SF	25
2010	RU	4R	SF	3R	21
2009	4R	QF	SF	4R	19
2008	1R	3R	QF	RU	16
2007	4R	-	-	3R	7
2006	1R	1R	4R	4R	10
2005	-	-	3R	2R	5

If he is going to take the next step, 2012 looks like the most likely time for it.  It is also the year he turns 25.  This may not signify his potential peak as for Nadal or Djokovic, since Murray is not a multi-slam (7+) winner and he may peak later, like Nastase, Gomez, or Fish.

There really has been very little to separate the Big 4 over the last few years, except in the GS title department – in the words of Federer, “It’s crazy how small the margins are in tennis,” (18 Nov 2011).  Roger is now finding out what it means to be on the lower edge of these margins and how little separates a grand slam winner from a finalist.  The smallness of the margins may be more evident in how tournament titles have been shared over the last three years.

	Tournament Titles 2009-2011
Djokovic	17
Nadal	15
Murray	13
Federer	13

There is very little to choose among them.  At both slam and non-slam events Murray seems to be closing whatever tiny margin has separated him from major hardware and will be hoping that translates into slam success in 2012.  I’d expect that the AO where he has been finalist the last 2 years is his best bet, although he has claimed he thinks the USO is his best shot.  On the other hand, he’s been most consistent at Wimbledon, so a triumph at any of the 3 seems possible. 

If Murray does breakthrough to the big time (and it’s a big IF), I’d expect at least a 6 month regrouping time from him, before he can be focussed enough to threaten for further majors.  As it stands, he is probably the best in the Open Era not to win a major.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Second on the list of best Open Era players not to win a major is Tsonga... at least according to this criterion:

Match Winning Percentage at Grand Slam Events (Players without a GS singles title)

	Wins	Losses	W-L %
Murray	78	25	76.5
Tsonga	50	17	74.6
Nalbandian	85	33	72.0
Okker	73	29	71.6
Metreveli	52	23	69.3
Mecir	50	23	68.5
Solomon	58	27	68.2
Martin, Todd	102	48	68.0
Krickstein	73	35	67.6
Ferrer	74	36	67.3

Tsonga may not have finished at #5 on the computer but I think if any of the current crop has the potential to break the top 4 hegemony it is he.  This year he won two tournaments and made the final of the YEC.  He’s 26, near the end of his prime years, but he was a late starter, really only playing main tour events from 2007 on, so he’s still on an upward arc.  He made the Aus Open final in only his 5^th GS tournament.  He may not make #1 but he may have the talent to peak for 2 weeks and claim a slam.  His record at the AO is his best among the majors, however his best shot may be at Wimbledon where he beat Federer and made the semis this year.

For 2012 he will do well to consolidate his position in the top 6 or so and try for a slam or maybe a second Masters 1000 title.

David Ferrer

Ferrer had his best year since 2007 when he finished at 5 in the world, won 3 tournaments, and was runner-up at the yearend championships.  He nearly replicated that performance this year, finishing at #5, winning two tournaments and making the SF at the YEC where he beat both Murray and Djokovic.  His ability to stay with the big boys has been almost surprising given his small stature and the lack of a big weapon in his game.  He plays solid big-hitting tennis, and even without the eye-popping weapons of some flashier players he manages to win with forcing shots and consistency. 

He turns 30 in 2012 so he won’t likely be improving his game and may even lose some ground.  It appears unlikely he will ever win a slam, and will do well to make a SF at one of the majors next year.  He made his 2^nd and 3^rd Masters 1000 finals in 2011 at Shanghai and Monte Carlo.  Winning a 1000 in 2012 would be a lofty goal and one that would mark a huge accomplishment for him. 

Tomas Berdych

After the heart-breaking loss of a match point and the match against Djokovic in the first round of the YEC, Berdych righted the ship to make the semi-finals of that event.  He also won the 500 in Beijing in what is probably his most consistent year.  He did not fare as well at the slams as 2010’s standout French SF and Wimbledon RU, but he did make the QF or better at six 1000 events.  He turns 27 in 2012 and is probably in the peak years of his career.

When Berdych is “on” he can beat anyone; he has 3 wins over Nadal and 4 over Federer.  He seems to stroke winners effortlessly from either wing to any place on the court.  But he is not always able to channel his best game, just like the rest of us.  If he can keep his head on and has a good day, he is always a threat.  A major may be just within his capability, but he will need the draw, the upsets, and the stars to align to make it happen.  I could see him in another major SF in 2012 or grabbing another 1000 title, (he won Paris 2005).

Mardy Fish

Without doubt this has been Fish’s best year.  He finished 8 in the world and made the YEC for the first time.  He will be 30 for most of 2012 and one wonders if he might have been challenging for slams had he gotten into this current headspace in his physical prime around 25 or 26 years old.  His backhand bears comparison to anyone’s and his movement, aggression, and net play are formidable.  He will soon begin to feel that his time is limited and hopefully this will help him focus at the majors.  He has the potential to go very deep on hard courts, his native surface, so a SF at the AO or USO should be within reach.  He has been in four Masters 1000 finals and pushing on to that first 1000 win in 2012 would be a worthy goal and likely a career achievement for Fish.

Janko Tipsarevic

Tipsarevic finishes the year at #9, his best ever – significantly improving on the previous best #38 finish he had in 2009.  He made 5 tournament finals in 2011, finally won his first at Kuala Lumpur, and followed it up with another title in Moscow a month later.  He will turn 28 in June and is probably at or near his peak.  He should come close to maintaining this level next year, but the competition is fierce so he may slip a bit.  Top 10 players like Henman, Ljubicic, and Fernando Gonzalez all had their best yearend finishes in the rankings at age 27 or later, and he will do well to aspire to the highs they reached.  Attaining a SF at a slam or winning a 1000 would be big achievements for Tisparevic.

Robin Soderling

Soderling started off with one of his best years ever, adding 4 titles to the 6 he had won previously in his career.  Unfortunately he did not play after July when he revealed a diagnosis of mononucleosis.  The consequent lack of play caused him to fall in the rankings from the #5 spot he held for the first half of the year to #13 at yearend. 

He will have his work cut out for him to get back to #5 in 2012.  He has all his points to defend in the first half of the year.  He could fall below fifty if he struggles to work his way back into form.  But if he can play for the whole year, he should be able to regain the top ten.  He must always be considered an outside threat at Roland Garros where he has twice made the final and is the only player ever to beat Nadal.

Juan Martin Del Potro

2011 was Del Potro’s comeback year and he fought back to #11 at yearend from a low of 485 in January.  He started strongly, winning Delray Beach and Estoril, and making the SF at Indian Wells.  But he struggled at the slams – his best was a 4R at Wimbledon – and his performance in the last half of the year was tepid.  Hopes that he and Argentina could find redemption in the Davis Cup final against Spain were probably not realistic in the face of the juggernaut that Spain has become.

For 2012 Del Potro will try to take the next step back toward becoming a slam contender once again.  The hard courts of the US Open where he won in 2009 are probably his best bet.  His only other slam SF was at the French in 2009 and his career won-lost record is actually slightly better on clay than hard courts – which means he could threaten at Roland Garros.  Were it not for the awesome dominance of Nadal, he would be given good odds of triumphing there.  I’d expect he will rejoin the top 10 in 2012 and may be ready to challenge for the title by the USO.

Andy Roddick

Roddick falls out of the yearend top 10 for the first time since 2002.  He turns 30 in 2012 and will be looking to make a last push for another slam.  This will likely come at Wimbledon where he has made the final three times – all losses to Federer.  He’s on a run of 9 years winning a tournament on the main tour, and if he can extend that for another year, he will have done well.  For 2012 a deep run at Wimbledon to QF or SF could be possible, although a title is probably permanently out of grasp.

Up and Comers

Alexandr Dolgopolov (rank 16, age 23 as of Nov 2011) burst on the scene with a QF run at the Australian Open, taking out Soderling and Tsonga before losing to Murray in 4 sets.  He went on to the title in Umag.  He’s a fascinating player to watch with the full tool kit of shots and then some.  Channelling all that talent will always be a challenge for him.  The next step for him will be making a slam SF or a 1000 final, then we will know more about he will react under greater pressure – will he use his immense talent to play smart tennis or wander into a blind alley of flashy low percentage shots?

Kei Nishikori (rank 25, age 22 as of Dec 2011) finally played healthy for a whole year and started to live up to the billing his talent has been garnering.  He beat Djokovic in Basel, Tsonga in Shanghai, and Fish in Houston.  The next steps will be to put together some consistent results at the 250 and 500 level and work on a good run at the slams.  His best showing so far was a 4R at USO 2008.  If he can make a major QF or SF this year it may propel him to the next level.

Milos Raonic (rank 31, age 21 as of Dec 2011) entered public consciousness with a 4R showing at the AO.  In February he went on a tear, winning San Jose then making the final in Memphis.  But he retired injured in the 2R at Wimbledon and didn’t play another tournament until October.  For 2012, hopefully he will be able to play injury-free, and if so, could threaten the top 10.  Much has been made of his talent and “hands” but he does not possess the movement of another 6’5”er, Tomas Berdych, and without it I do not foresee slam hardware in his future.

Bernard Tomic (rank 42, age 19 as of Oct 2011) finally showed the talent many have been claiming for him by winning 7 straight matches at Wimbledon to make the QF (out of the qualies) where he lost in 4 sets to Djokovic, taking out Soderling along the way.  His results turned soft for most of the rest of the year, except for Shanghai where he took out Mardy Fish.  He did much to silence critics among his countryman with these performances and especially by beating Wawrinka in Davis Cup against Switzerland.  His game is unorthodox, but if he can harness the latent genius this betells, he could become a major force in the post-Djokovic-Nadal age.  A slam semi or a deep run at a 1000 tournament should be within reach for 2012 and would be encouraging signposts toward future slam success.

Grigor Dimitrov (rank 76, age 21 as of May 2012) made good progress in 2011, gaining a 100 or so places in the rankings.  His success has long been forecast, and he is figuring out that talent does not necessarily equal success.  Hard work and careful thinking are also required.  He made QF in Munich, Eastbourne, Bangkok, and Stockholm – a promising start – and more will be expected for 2012.  He has not really shown his hand at the slams yet, and his performance at these in 2012 will be good indications of his future.

Ryan Harrison (rank 79, age 20 as of May 2012) made 4R at Indian Wells, then SF at Atlanta and Los Angeles in July.  He seems most comfortable on American hard courts, although he also notched 3 wins in making the 2R at Wimbledon.  He has a strong all around game without significant weaknesses, but equally without a killer weapon.  This may make reaching the top 20 a great accomplishment for his career, although he is certainly too young for such predictions to be made with any certainty.  The talent of will is the most important of all and is not always easy to foretell.

Cedrik-Marcel Stebe (rank 81, age 21 as of Oct 2011) started the year with 17 straight victories to claim two Futures tournaments in Turkey, before playing out of the qualifying at a Challenger in Kyoto all the way to the final.  He improved his ranking by over 300 places and ended the year by winning the ATP Challenger Tour Finals in Brazil, an 8-man round robin like the WTF.  In the meantime he notched wins over Ferrero and Davydenko in Hamburg.  We should soon start to see how he handles the pressure of main tour events.  Top 40 may be within reach in 2012.

Vasek Pospisil (rank 119, age 22 as of Jun 2012) knocked about 200 places off his ranking in 2011, playing mostly on the Challenger and Future circuits.  At these he won 10 matches in Canada during July before winning a main tour match at the Canadian Open in Montreal.  He then won 4 matches out of qualifying at USO to make the 2R, losing a tight 4-setter to Feliciano Lopez.  He went on to score two victories over Israel in Davis Cup to propel Canada into the main group against France for 2012.  Reaching top 50 in 2012 would a worthy goal for him, but if he can handle big-match pressure, he may go further.

Pablo Carrena-Busta (rank 136, age 21 as of Jul 2012) won an astonishing 5 tournaments at the Futures and Challenger level in 2011.  He also knocked about 200 places off his ranking.  If he can carry this success forward he should start to make an impact on public consciousness in 2012 and gain admission to the main draws of slams.

Yearend Rankings and Predictions

(last year’s rank in brackets):

Charles’ 2011 rank	ATP 2011 rank	Charles’ 2012 projection
1.       Djokovic (3)	1.       Djokovic (3)	1.  Djokovic (3)
2.       Nadal (1)	2.       Nadal (1)	2.  Nadal (1)
3.       Federer (2)	3.       Federer (2)	3.  Murray (4)
4.       Murray (4)	4.       Murray (4)	4.  Federer (2)
5.       Ferrer (7)	5.       Ferrer (7)	5.  Tsonga (9)
6.       Tsonga ()	6.       Tsonga (13)	6.  Del Potro (5)
7.       Soderling (5)	7.       Berdych (6)	7.  Berdych (7)
8.       Berdych (6)	8.       Fish (16)	8.  Ferrer ()
9.       Fish ()	9.       Tipsarevic (49)	9.  Soderling (6)
10.   Tipsarevic ()	10.   Almagro (15)	10. Tomic ()

2012 Grand Slam predictions (top 6)

AO (Charles) – Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Nadal, Tsonga, Ferrer
AO (bookies[2]) – Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga

FO (Charles) – Nadal, Djokovic, Federer, Murray, Soderling, Del Potro
FO (bookies) – Nadal, Djokovic, Del Potro, Federer, Murray, Ferrer

Wim (Charles) – Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Federer, Roddick, Tsonga
Wim (bookies) – Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga

USO (Charles) – Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga
USO (bookies) – Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga

[1] My list of all-time greats includes Tilden, Budge, Kramer, Gonzalez, Rosewall, Laver, Borg, Sampras, Federer, and Nadal.  Djokovic still has a chance to add his name to the list.

[2] Average of bookies reporting at bookies.com on 1 Dec 2011

---