French Open Preview – 22 Apr 2015
No discussion about Roland Garros can avoid Rafael Nadal. He is the lynchpin. After 9 French crowns, can he do it again? His form in 2015 has been highly suspect, with losses to Berrer, Fognini, and Verdasco, among others. Does this constitute an opening for the rest of the field? Or only for Novak Djokovic?
Despite the seeming endless dominance exerted by Serena Williams over her opponents, Maria Sharapova has featured in the last 3 Roland Garros finals, winning 2 of them. Is she the favourite at the 2015 edition?
The Women
She seems without rival. There is apparently nothing stopping Serena Williams from sailing to victory in every tournament she enters, save herself. At time of writing she has lost only 3 times since Wimbledon last year: to her sister, Simona Halep, and a first set retirement against Alize Cornet.
The current era reminds me a little of the lop-sidedness that Steffi Graf enjoyed after the Seles stabbing. However, there was a time when Serena was clearly not dominant in the group of Venus, Henin, Clijsters, Capriati, Davenport, and Hingis. Henin especially had her on the run, beating Serena in 3 consecutive slam quarter-finals in 2007. But to her credit, Serena has out-lasted them all and has a losing head-to-head against none of her major rivals, (although she was 3-4 vs Arantxa Sanchez Vicario, 10 years her senior).
And the current generation, led by Maria Sharapova, has been woeful in her presence. Her most significant recent rivals, Sharapova (2-17), Li (1-11), Azarenka (3-14), Kvitova (0-5), Halep (1-5), Wozniacki (1-10), and Ivanovic (1-8), are a combined 9-70 against the mighty queen.
But despite being the ‘real’ #1 in 6 of the last 7 years (except 2011 due to injury), Serena has not come close to winning a real Grand Slam. In fact, despite 5 previous Australian Open titles, she has never won the first two slams in a calendar year. Some of this may be due to not excelling on clay, but some may also owe to the incredible pressure that winning that first slam leg exerts on a player.
Will her sixth attempt succeed? There are only six players who have ever won the first two majors in a year, and half of them went on, at some point, to win a calendar Grand Slam.
Players winning first two Majors of the year:
Slam winner in bold Years winning first 2 Majors
Capriati Once 2001
Seles Twice 1991, 1992
Graf Once 1988
Navratilova Twice 1982, 1984
Court 5 times 1962, 1965, 1969, 1970, 1973
Connolly Once 1953
Of course Serena did join Navratilova in winning four consecutive majors, in 2002-03, and this is perhaps no less an accomplishment than the calendar slam.
Maria Sharapova has clearly come to love clay courts, despite calling herself a “cow on ice” early in her career. She has taken 8 of her last 12 titles on clay (since 2011), including two French titles. During that time she has faced Serena three times on clay, losing them all and standing 0-5 lifetime vs Serena on the terre. So should they meet at Roland Garros, Serena would have to be the favourite.
A meeting between the two would likely be in the final (by current rankings), but it is Serena perhaps who is less likely to make it that far. It would not be illogical to assert that Sharapova’s success on clay may be partially attributed to Serena’s relative weakness on the surface. When Serena fumbles, Maria is there to scoop up the hardware.
Are there other contenders? Simona Halep’s name looms large. She was last year’s finalist, surrendering a close contest 4-6 to Sharapova in the third set. Her ascendance has been dramatic. Her last three year-end rankings: 2012 – #47, 2013 – #12, 2014 - #3. She shelled Serena 6-0, 6-2 in the yearend championships and her ambition seems to know no limit.
Halep looked a little shaky in Australia, going down 0 and 4 to Makarova, but rebounded to win Indian Wells and gave Serena a terrific tussle in Miami, losing 5-7 in the third set. She seems the most credible threat to the top since Azarenka, or perhaps even Sharapova. Halep has struggled against Sharapova, 0- 5 H2H, but the matches have been extremely close. Halep is still improving, I can’t see her being denied a slam title much longer.
And what of the field? Petra Kvitova is plagued by terminal inconsistency, ditto Ana Ivanovic. Wozniacki and Radwanska lack the weapons to win big. Bouchard is in a sophomore slump. Venus seems past her prime. Azarenka is still re-finding top form after an injury-plagued 2014. Stosur, despite a significant clay court resume and a leprechaun-rare slam-final win aganst Serena, is very far from her best. That leaves the youngsters. Or perhaps Martina Hingis will come out of retirement a 4th (?) time and finally complete the career slam...
But what of the youngsters? The short list includes Garbine Muguruza, Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina, Caroline Garcia, and Belinda Bencic. Muguruza took out Serena at the French last year, reached the QF, and should be feared by everyone in the draw. Keys is at least the third Aus Open SF-breakthrough-phenom of the last 3 years; Stephens and Bouchard precede her. Will she do them one better and take a slam? Svitolina has been vaulting up the rankings and pushed Serena to 3 sets in Australia. Garcia has wins over Ivanovic, Venus, Radwanska, and Bouchard. Bencic grabbed attention last year in a QF showing at the US Open as a 17 year old.
Of the lot, Keys has perhaps the most long term potential. Her powerful serving and stroking can take her very far. I’m not sure clay is her best surface, but a title is not unthinkable, even if it is unlikely. Svitolina shows admirable Halep-like determination. Bencic is a bit of an unknown quantity whose game is still maturing in the crucible of the tour.
To these names three slightly older contenders should be added: Ekaterina Makarova, Karolina Pliskova, and Timea Bacsinszky. All three are having standout 2015’s. Makarova, age 26, has made SF of the last two slams, and QF at Wimbledon before that. Pliskova, age 23, has already racked up 23 match wins this year. Bacsinszky, age 25, claimed two titles in a 15 match win streak that was finally halted by Serena in two close sets at Indian Wells.
I would not be surprised to see any of these three go deep at Roland Garros. Ditto for the youngsters. But at the end of the day, Serena is the favourite for the Suzanne Lenglen Cup. If she should falter, I think it’s a dead heat between Sharapova and Halep. The rest of the field will need to hope for three upsets in order to have a chance at the title.
The Men
Much as Roger Federer’s dominance eventually slipped and he was relegated to the status of very, very good, seriously-to-be-considered, and definitely-cannot-be overlooked contender, so too must Rafael Nadal’s dominance on clay eventually follow. Are we there yet?
The first chink in the armor was Novak Djokovic’s two clay victories over Rafa in 2011. From 2011 onward Rafa and Novak are 5-5 on clay. Then in 2013 Rafa’s Monte Carlo kingdom fell. After 8 consecutive titles, Djokovic wrested the crown away. But Nadal went on to win Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, and Paris all on clay that year.
And last year the wheels seemed to really fall off for Nadal. He defended his title in Madrid, but lost in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome, three places he had won a combined 23 titles. Even the Madrid win looked to be a loss until Nishikori, seemingly firmly in control, became injured and had to retire. But despite those cracks in the facade and the call by many predictors for Djokovic to be considered the favourite, when crunch time came, Nadal claimed an unbelievable 9th Coupe des Mousquetaires trophy at Paris in 2014.
After the first four months of 2015, the questions around Nadal’s game have only increased. It seems perhaps that clay in general is not the last bastion of Nadalism, only Roland Garros remains. And if Nadal should happen to lose Roland Garros this year, the spectre that casts may be very dark. Will it demoralize him? Will he have the heart to continue the fight? Could it spell the end of his career? Nadal currently holds the all-time record for most consecutive years with a slam title at 10 years, among men; (Chris Evert has 13.) Roger Federer and Pete Sampras both lived to win again after 8 year reigns. Bjorn Borg did not. To be honest, I’m not convinced that the psychological wound of being beaten at Roland Garros – and not just a flukey loss like to Robin Soderling in 2009, but a loss to a serious rival like Djokovic – is something from which Nadal can recover.
Everything we know about Nadal says he is a fighter, reputed to be one of the most mentally tough players ever. Will taking away his ever-present talisman undermine that? We may not need to find out this year. Whatever losses he may incur before alighting in Paris as his sign, Gemini, dawns, the bounce of the red clay there and the necessity to win best 3 of 5 sets have favoured him. I expect a formidable charge from Djokovic. Novak may well be at the very peak of his powers. Next year he will be 29, and his skills may (may!) start to decay a little. He’s lost six times to Nadal at Roland Garros. Is this a battle he can ever win?
Despite the slight lead Nadal enjoys in their head to head, 23-20, the story has been rather different since 2011. That was the year Novak claimed pre-eminence, beat Nadal six times, claimed three slam titles, and finished, for the first time, as yearend #1. From 2011 onwards, Djokovic leads the rivalry 12- 7. That breaks down to 4-4 in clay finals and 7-1 in hard court finals. Nadal still holds an edge on clay since 2011, 4-3 in best-of-five set matches.
Perhaps one of the more alarming factors to consider is that with Nadal’s ranking in free fall, a potential clash between the #1 and the clay #1 could happen well before the final. Certainly a SF is possible, since Nadal cannot catch Federer at #2 before Paris, but a QF might also be possible. Nadal’s ranking dipped below #4 in April and if he posts only ‘solid’ results in May, SF’s or QF’s say, he will be hard-pressed to avoid a #5-8 seeding at the tournament formerly known as the ‘Nadal Invitational.’
For his part, Djokovic has looked all but invincible this year. All his strokes are strong. His serve is a weapon, his return is an even bigger weapon. His speed around the court is legendary and his bodily flexibility and ability to reach impossible shots is perhaps unparalleled. He is patient, mentally tough, confident, and determined. In almost any setting he must be favoured.
But Roland Garros is not any setting. It is Nadal’s turf. I expect Nadal to round into form with perfect timing for the French and to fight tooth and nail with Djokovic. It will probably be enough to give him the crown. But there is uncertainty in my mind. If they play in Paris, and if the match is close, I give a razor’s edge to Nadal. But it could turn into a rout for Novak as well.
And what of the great maestro, Roger Federer? He’s at #2 in the rankings, second only in age to the mighty Ken Rosewall in the era of computer rankings.
Highest age of #2 or better ranking
Rosewall 40.7
Federer 33.7
Agassi 33.3
Ashe 33.0
Connors 32.6
Newcombe 30.9
Lendl 30.4
Roger may be the third best clay player, behind Nadal and Djokovic, and has played the French final five times. But he is not showing the consistency he did as a younger man. This year he has made 3 finals but also lost in 3R twice. He is prone now to odd, unforeseen defeats. While either Rafa or Novak would certainly be favoured against Roger at Garros, now Federer is far from a sure thing against the likes of Nishikori, Ferrer, Berdych, and even Monfils (after Monte Carlo). Claiming a second French crown is not unthinkable for Roger, but it would likely mean Nadal and Djokovic both suffering upsets to other players in order to clear a path for Federer.
Probably the next most interesting player to me is Kei Nishikori. His best previous Roland Garros result is 4R (round of 16) in 2013, going down with only 8 games to Nadal. While this is not promising, he showed he can go deep on the big stage with his US Open finalist performance last summer. He also made finals on clay last year in Barcelona and Madrid. He won Barcelona and was winning Madrid, when, up a set and a break against Nadal, he injured his back and had to retire. Kei has shown fragility in the past and inconsistency at the slams, but he clearly has the talent to do major damage if he can hold his head together.
David Ferrer must not be overlooked. He was finalist just two years ago to Nadal. After dropping to a yearend ranking of #10 in 2014, he has rebounded with three titles this year. No one will look forward to playing him, but he probably lacks the weapons to take out an in-form Nadal or Djokovic. He thrives on clay but, like Federer, will require others to clear a path for him to the title.
Tomas Berdych has had his best results off clay, but did make SF at Garros in 2010 and QF last year. He has shown renewed dedication under ex-Murray coach Dani Vallverdu. Finally defeating Nadal, this year at the Australian, and making the Monte Carlo final where he gave Djokovic a good fright preclude discounting him as a threat for this major.
Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils, and Stan Wawrinka all have excellent results on clay. With some luck they could sneak into the final, but QF are probably more reasonable goals for them. Del Potro has been injured and should not be considered a threat.
And the field is chock-a-block with other dangerous vegetables like Grigor Dimitrov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Fabio Fognini, Ernests Gulbis, and even John Isner; not to mention a burgeoning youth brigade. The triple Aussie threat of Kyrgios, Tomic, and Kokkinakis look to become a major force over the next few years, but are not particularly favoured on clay at the present time. Borna Coric, age 18, from Croatia, looks to have groundstrokes well-suited for clay, but probably needs more match- and tour-maturity before storming the bastille. Andrey Rublev, only 17, from Russia, has caught my attention with dramatic gains this year, but will do well to make it into and through qualifying, such is his ranking, now in the 200’s.
Summation
Serena will be the favourite for the women’s crown. Should she falter, it will likely be extremely close between Sharapova and Halep; based on past record a thin margin must be accorded Sharapova. Then again... this is women’s tennis on clay and has been anything but predictable since Henin retired.
Muguruza anyone?
Despite his travails and the recent dominance of Djokovic, I still believe a slight edge must be conferred to Nadal. The bookies disagree with me. Maybe the best thing for Novak would be to meet Nadal before the final when the pressure is just slightly less. I would be truly surprised if either did not win the title.
Odds from bet365.com on 22 April 2015
Rank Player Decimal Odds
1 SWilliams 3.75
2 Sharapova 5.00
3 Halep 5.50
4 Azarenka 8.00
5 Bouchard 9.00
6 Muguruza 11
7 Kvitova 15
8 Wozniacki 21
9 Ivanovic 23
10 ARadwanska 26
11 Petkovic 34
11 Stephens 34
11 Errani 34
14 Suarez Navarro 41
15 KaPliskova 51
15 Keys 51
15 Kuznetsova 51
15 Kerber 51
Rank Player Decimal Odds
1 Djokovic 2.10
2 Nadal 2.62
3 Federer 21
3 Wawrinka 21
3 Nishikori 21
3 Murray 21
7 Del Potro 26
7 Ferrer 26
9 Dimitrov 34
9 Monfils 34
11 Cilic 41
12 Tsonga 51
12 Gulbis 51
12 Raonic 51
12 Berdych 51
May 24, 2015
Now that the draw has been released, and in light of the last month of tennis, I’ll make some concrete
(although equally unreliable) predictions.
Women’s draw
Quarters
Serena (1) will have her hands full with Azarenka (27) in 3R and sister Venus in the 4th. It’s a toss up between 2012 finalist Errani (17) and Wozniacki (5) in the neighbouring 4R. Serena d. Wozniacki.
Kvitova (4) upped her stock considerably by taking out Serena in Madrid on clay, but the faster conditions there that favour her game mitigate the impact of that win. Begu (30) in 3R for Kvitova, and Bacsinszky (23) or Keys (16) in 4R cannot be taken for granted. Next door all four seeds are accomplished claycourters that would not surprise with QF showings: Pliskova (12), Kuznetsova (18), Diyas (32), Bouchard (6). Kvitova d. Kuznetsova
Ivanovic (7) has been woeful this year, Garcia (31) has been rising. It adds up to another good opportunity for Makarova (9). ARadwanska (14) has slipped this year and is not great on clay, while Svitolina (19) is on the rise. Cornet (29) can bother anyone, but Halep (3) should be too strong for the lot. Halep d. Makarova
Former finalist Stosur (26) might take out Sharapova (2) in 3R. Suarez Navarro (8) is having a career year and should overcome Pennetta (28) in 3R and clay-tough Muguruza (21) or Kerber (11) in 4R. In a squeaker, Sharapova d. Suarez Navarro.
Semis
Serena rarely loses to the same player twice in a row, Cornet notwithstanding. Would love to see super- Petra show up, but even that may not be enough from a determined Williams. SWilliams d. Kvitova.
Sharapova barely eked out the title over Halep in last year’s final. Halep may have improved this year
but hard-hitting Maria is not a great matchup for her. Sharapova d. Halep.
Final
Serena d. Sharapova. Serena may be most vulnerable in the early rounds, but if she gets this far she’s
money.
Men’s draw
Quarters
While Tomic (27) could pose an actual threat in 3R to Djokovic (1), Gasquet (20) and Anderson (15) in 4R do not. Next door, all names pale beside 9-time champion Nadal’s (6). A QF matchup is almost unthinkable for the top two bookies’ favourites, but so the draw gods have decreed. Meeting before the final should help Djokovic as Nadal may not yet have reached full French form. Despite 6 wins to no losses for Nadal, this ‘match of the tournament’ probably goes to Djokovic, despite what I’ve written above. Novak has just been too strong, and Nadal too shaky for me to see it any other way… although it’s far from a sure thing. Djokovic d. Nadal.
His first two clay titles, including a win over Nadal, mean Murray (3) is a serious contender for the title. Kyrgios (29) is young, explosive, and cannot be underestimated in possible 3R. Ferrer (7) is the most likely QF opponent, and has owned Murray on clay. The old Murray, that is. Murray d. Ferrer.
Nishikori (5) could face trouble in 3R at the hands of Verdasco (32). Nearby, Berdych (4) newly minted at #4 in the rankings has a dicey 4R with Tsonga (14). Nishikori has the skills to take this, but generally struggles at majors, while Berdych has shown tremendous form this year. Berdych d. Nishikori.
Federer (2) has lost his last two on clay to Monfils (13) and this year’s 4R could be no different. Seeing the rest of the Big 4 piled up on the other half of the draw prompted Federer to say he has a chance to go very deep this year – pretty much guaranteeing he will not. Wawrinka (8) needs to finally beat Garcia-Lopez in 3R to go deep, himself. Wawrinka d. Monfils.
Semis
If he can get by Nadal, no one will stop him, especially Murray who crumples in his presence. Djokovic d. Murray.
Berdych has not thriven on clay, but this is his year. Berdych d. Wawrinka.
Final
I’m predicting a re-match of the Monte Carlo final. Berdych made it close for a while, but in the end, Novak won. Djokovic d. Berdych.
No discussion about Roland Garros can avoid Rafael Nadal. He is the lynchpin. After 9 French crowns, can he do it again? His form in 2015 has been highly suspect, with losses to Berrer, Fognini, and Verdasco, among others. Does this constitute an opening for the rest of the field? Or only for Novak Djokovic?
Despite the seeming endless dominance exerted by Serena Williams over her opponents, Maria Sharapova has featured in the last 3 Roland Garros finals, winning 2 of them. Is she the favourite at the 2015 edition?
The Women
She seems without rival. There is apparently nothing stopping Serena Williams from sailing to victory in every tournament she enters, save herself. At time of writing she has lost only 3 times since Wimbledon last year: to her sister, Simona Halep, and a first set retirement against Alize Cornet.
The current era reminds me a little of the lop-sidedness that Steffi Graf enjoyed after the Seles stabbing. However, there was a time when Serena was clearly not dominant in the group of Venus, Henin, Clijsters, Capriati, Davenport, and Hingis. Henin especially had her on the run, beating Serena in 3 consecutive slam quarter-finals in 2007. But to her credit, Serena has out-lasted them all and has a losing head-to-head against none of her major rivals, (although she was 3-4 vs Arantxa Sanchez Vicario, 10 years her senior).
And the current generation, led by Maria Sharapova, has been woeful in her presence. Her most significant recent rivals, Sharapova (2-17), Li (1-11), Azarenka (3-14), Kvitova (0-5), Halep (1-5), Wozniacki (1-10), and Ivanovic (1-8), are a combined 9-70 against the mighty queen.
But despite being the ‘real’ #1 in 6 of the last 7 years (except 2011 due to injury), Serena has not come close to winning a real Grand Slam. In fact, despite 5 previous Australian Open titles, she has never won the first two slams in a calendar year. Some of this may be due to not excelling on clay, but some may also owe to the incredible pressure that winning that first slam leg exerts on a player.
Will her sixth attempt succeed? There are only six players who have ever won the first two majors in a year, and half of them went on, at some point, to win a calendar Grand Slam.
Players winning first two Majors of the year:
Slam winner in bold Years winning first 2 Majors
Capriati Once 2001
Seles Twice 1991, 1992
Graf Once 1988
Navratilova Twice 1982, 1984
Court 5 times 1962, 1965, 1969, 1970, 1973
Connolly Once 1953
Of course Serena did join Navratilova in winning four consecutive majors, in 2002-03, and this is perhaps no less an accomplishment than the calendar slam.
Maria Sharapova has clearly come to love clay courts, despite calling herself a “cow on ice” early in her career. She has taken 8 of her last 12 titles on clay (since 2011), including two French titles. During that time she has faced Serena three times on clay, losing them all and standing 0-5 lifetime vs Serena on the terre. So should they meet at Roland Garros, Serena would have to be the favourite.
A meeting between the two would likely be in the final (by current rankings), but it is Serena perhaps who is less likely to make it that far. It would not be illogical to assert that Sharapova’s success on clay may be partially attributed to Serena’s relative weakness on the surface. When Serena fumbles, Maria is there to scoop up the hardware.
Are there other contenders? Simona Halep’s name looms large. She was last year’s finalist, surrendering a close contest 4-6 to Sharapova in the third set. Her ascendance has been dramatic. Her last three year-end rankings: 2012 – #47, 2013 – #12, 2014 - #3. She shelled Serena 6-0, 6-2 in the yearend championships and her ambition seems to know no limit.
Halep looked a little shaky in Australia, going down 0 and 4 to Makarova, but rebounded to win Indian Wells and gave Serena a terrific tussle in Miami, losing 5-7 in the third set. She seems the most credible threat to the top since Azarenka, or perhaps even Sharapova. Halep has struggled against Sharapova, 0- 5 H2H, but the matches have been extremely close. Halep is still improving, I can’t see her being denied a slam title much longer.
And what of the field? Petra Kvitova is plagued by terminal inconsistency, ditto Ana Ivanovic. Wozniacki and Radwanska lack the weapons to win big. Bouchard is in a sophomore slump. Venus seems past her prime. Azarenka is still re-finding top form after an injury-plagued 2014. Stosur, despite a significant clay court resume and a leprechaun-rare slam-final win aganst Serena, is very far from her best. That leaves the youngsters. Or perhaps Martina Hingis will come out of retirement a 4th (?) time and finally complete the career slam...
But what of the youngsters? The short list includes Garbine Muguruza, Madison Keys, Elina Svitolina, Caroline Garcia, and Belinda Bencic. Muguruza took out Serena at the French last year, reached the QF, and should be feared by everyone in the draw. Keys is at least the third Aus Open SF-breakthrough-phenom of the last 3 years; Stephens and Bouchard precede her. Will she do them one better and take a slam? Svitolina has been vaulting up the rankings and pushed Serena to 3 sets in Australia. Garcia has wins over Ivanovic, Venus, Radwanska, and Bouchard. Bencic grabbed attention last year in a QF showing at the US Open as a 17 year old.
Of the lot, Keys has perhaps the most long term potential. Her powerful serving and stroking can take her very far. I’m not sure clay is her best surface, but a title is not unthinkable, even if it is unlikely. Svitolina shows admirable Halep-like determination. Bencic is a bit of an unknown quantity whose game is still maturing in the crucible of the tour.
To these names three slightly older contenders should be added: Ekaterina Makarova, Karolina Pliskova, and Timea Bacsinszky. All three are having standout 2015’s. Makarova, age 26, has made SF of the last two slams, and QF at Wimbledon before that. Pliskova, age 23, has already racked up 23 match wins this year. Bacsinszky, age 25, claimed two titles in a 15 match win streak that was finally halted by Serena in two close sets at Indian Wells.
I would not be surprised to see any of these three go deep at Roland Garros. Ditto for the youngsters. But at the end of the day, Serena is the favourite for the Suzanne Lenglen Cup. If she should falter, I think it’s a dead heat between Sharapova and Halep. The rest of the field will need to hope for three upsets in order to have a chance at the title.
The Men
Much as Roger Federer’s dominance eventually slipped and he was relegated to the status of very, very good, seriously-to-be-considered, and definitely-cannot-be overlooked contender, so too must Rafael Nadal’s dominance on clay eventually follow. Are we there yet?
The first chink in the armor was Novak Djokovic’s two clay victories over Rafa in 2011. From 2011 onward Rafa and Novak are 5-5 on clay. Then in 2013 Rafa’s Monte Carlo kingdom fell. After 8 consecutive titles, Djokovic wrested the crown away. But Nadal went on to win Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, and Paris all on clay that year.
And last year the wheels seemed to really fall off for Nadal. He defended his title in Madrid, but lost in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome, three places he had won a combined 23 titles. Even the Madrid win looked to be a loss until Nishikori, seemingly firmly in control, became injured and had to retire. But despite those cracks in the facade and the call by many predictors for Djokovic to be considered the favourite, when crunch time came, Nadal claimed an unbelievable 9th Coupe des Mousquetaires trophy at Paris in 2014.
After the first four months of 2015, the questions around Nadal’s game have only increased. It seems perhaps that clay in general is not the last bastion of Nadalism, only Roland Garros remains. And if Nadal should happen to lose Roland Garros this year, the spectre that casts may be very dark. Will it demoralize him? Will he have the heart to continue the fight? Could it spell the end of his career? Nadal currently holds the all-time record for most consecutive years with a slam title at 10 years, among men; (Chris Evert has 13.) Roger Federer and Pete Sampras both lived to win again after 8 year reigns. Bjorn Borg did not. To be honest, I’m not convinced that the psychological wound of being beaten at Roland Garros – and not just a flukey loss like to Robin Soderling in 2009, but a loss to a serious rival like Djokovic – is something from which Nadal can recover.
Everything we know about Nadal says he is a fighter, reputed to be one of the most mentally tough players ever. Will taking away his ever-present talisman undermine that? We may not need to find out this year. Whatever losses he may incur before alighting in Paris as his sign, Gemini, dawns, the bounce of the red clay there and the necessity to win best 3 of 5 sets have favoured him. I expect a formidable charge from Djokovic. Novak may well be at the very peak of his powers. Next year he will be 29, and his skills may (may!) start to decay a little. He’s lost six times to Nadal at Roland Garros. Is this a battle he can ever win?
Despite the slight lead Nadal enjoys in their head to head, 23-20, the story has been rather different since 2011. That was the year Novak claimed pre-eminence, beat Nadal six times, claimed three slam titles, and finished, for the first time, as yearend #1. From 2011 onwards, Djokovic leads the rivalry 12- 7. That breaks down to 4-4 in clay finals and 7-1 in hard court finals. Nadal still holds an edge on clay since 2011, 4-3 in best-of-five set matches.
Perhaps one of the more alarming factors to consider is that with Nadal’s ranking in free fall, a potential clash between the #1 and the clay #1 could happen well before the final. Certainly a SF is possible, since Nadal cannot catch Federer at #2 before Paris, but a QF might also be possible. Nadal’s ranking dipped below #4 in April and if he posts only ‘solid’ results in May, SF’s or QF’s say, he will be hard-pressed to avoid a #5-8 seeding at the tournament formerly known as the ‘Nadal Invitational.’
For his part, Djokovic has looked all but invincible this year. All his strokes are strong. His serve is a weapon, his return is an even bigger weapon. His speed around the court is legendary and his bodily flexibility and ability to reach impossible shots is perhaps unparalleled. He is patient, mentally tough, confident, and determined. In almost any setting he must be favoured.
But Roland Garros is not any setting. It is Nadal’s turf. I expect Nadal to round into form with perfect timing for the French and to fight tooth and nail with Djokovic. It will probably be enough to give him the crown. But there is uncertainty in my mind. If they play in Paris, and if the match is close, I give a razor’s edge to Nadal. But it could turn into a rout for Novak as well.
And what of the great maestro, Roger Federer? He’s at #2 in the rankings, second only in age to the mighty Ken Rosewall in the era of computer rankings.
Highest age of #2 or better ranking
Rosewall 40.7
Federer 33.7
Agassi 33.3
Ashe 33.0
Connors 32.6
Newcombe 30.9
Lendl 30.4
Roger may be the third best clay player, behind Nadal and Djokovic, and has played the French final five times. But he is not showing the consistency he did as a younger man. This year he has made 3 finals but also lost in 3R twice. He is prone now to odd, unforeseen defeats. While either Rafa or Novak would certainly be favoured against Roger at Garros, now Federer is far from a sure thing against the likes of Nishikori, Ferrer, Berdych, and even Monfils (after Monte Carlo). Claiming a second French crown is not unthinkable for Roger, but it would likely mean Nadal and Djokovic both suffering upsets to other players in order to clear a path for Federer.
Probably the next most interesting player to me is Kei Nishikori. His best previous Roland Garros result is 4R (round of 16) in 2013, going down with only 8 games to Nadal. While this is not promising, he showed he can go deep on the big stage with his US Open finalist performance last summer. He also made finals on clay last year in Barcelona and Madrid. He won Barcelona and was winning Madrid, when, up a set and a break against Nadal, he injured his back and had to retire. Kei has shown fragility in the past and inconsistency at the slams, but he clearly has the talent to do major damage if he can hold his head together.
David Ferrer must not be overlooked. He was finalist just two years ago to Nadal. After dropping to a yearend ranking of #10 in 2014, he has rebounded with three titles this year. No one will look forward to playing him, but he probably lacks the weapons to take out an in-form Nadal or Djokovic. He thrives on clay but, like Federer, will require others to clear a path for him to the title.
Tomas Berdych has had his best results off clay, but did make SF at Garros in 2010 and QF last year. He has shown renewed dedication under ex-Murray coach Dani Vallverdu. Finally defeating Nadal, this year at the Australian, and making the Monte Carlo final where he gave Djokovic a good fright preclude discounting him as a threat for this major.
Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils, and Stan Wawrinka all have excellent results on clay. With some luck they could sneak into the final, but QF are probably more reasonable goals for them. Del Potro has been injured and should not be considered a threat.
And the field is chock-a-block with other dangerous vegetables like Grigor Dimitrov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Fabio Fognini, Ernests Gulbis, and even John Isner; not to mention a burgeoning youth brigade. The triple Aussie threat of Kyrgios, Tomic, and Kokkinakis look to become a major force over the next few years, but are not particularly favoured on clay at the present time. Borna Coric, age 18, from Croatia, looks to have groundstrokes well-suited for clay, but probably needs more match- and tour-maturity before storming the bastille. Andrey Rublev, only 17, from Russia, has caught my attention with dramatic gains this year, but will do well to make it into and through qualifying, such is his ranking, now in the 200’s.
Summation
Serena will be the favourite for the women’s crown. Should she falter, it will likely be extremely close between Sharapova and Halep; based on past record a thin margin must be accorded Sharapova. Then again... this is women’s tennis on clay and has been anything but predictable since Henin retired.
Muguruza anyone?
Despite his travails and the recent dominance of Djokovic, I still believe a slight edge must be conferred to Nadal. The bookies disagree with me. Maybe the best thing for Novak would be to meet Nadal before the final when the pressure is just slightly less. I would be truly surprised if either did not win the title.
Odds from bet365.com on 22 April 2015
Rank Player Decimal Odds
1 SWilliams 3.75
2 Sharapova 5.00
3 Halep 5.50
4 Azarenka 8.00
5 Bouchard 9.00
6 Muguruza 11
7 Kvitova 15
8 Wozniacki 21
9 Ivanovic 23
10 ARadwanska 26
11 Petkovic 34
11 Stephens 34
11 Errani 34
14 Suarez Navarro 41
15 KaPliskova 51
15 Keys 51
15 Kuznetsova 51
15 Kerber 51
Rank Player Decimal Odds
1 Djokovic 2.10
2 Nadal 2.62
3 Federer 21
3 Wawrinka 21
3 Nishikori 21
3 Murray 21
7 Del Potro 26
7 Ferrer 26
9 Dimitrov 34
9 Monfils 34
11 Cilic 41
12 Tsonga 51
12 Gulbis 51
12 Raonic 51
12 Berdych 51
May 24, 2015
Now that the draw has been released, and in light of the last month of tennis, I’ll make some concrete
(although equally unreliable) predictions.
Women’s draw
Quarters
Serena (1) will have her hands full with Azarenka (27) in 3R and sister Venus in the 4th. It’s a toss up between 2012 finalist Errani (17) and Wozniacki (5) in the neighbouring 4R. Serena d. Wozniacki.
Kvitova (4) upped her stock considerably by taking out Serena in Madrid on clay, but the faster conditions there that favour her game mitigate the impact of that win. Begu (30) in 3R for Kvitova, and Bacsinszky (23) or Keys (16) in 4R cannot be taken for granted. Next door all four seeds are accomplished claycourters that would not surprise with QF showings: Pliskova (12), Kuznetsova (18), Diyas (32), Bouchard (6). Kvitova d. Kuznetsova
Ivanovic (7) has been woeful this year, Garcia (31) has been rising. It adds up to another good opportunity for Makarova (9). ARadwanska (14) has slipped this year and is not great on clay, while Svitolina (19) is on the rise. Cornet (29) can bother anyone, but Halep (3) should be too strong for the lot. Halep d. Makarova
Former finalist Stosur (26) might take out Sharapova (2) in 3R. Suarez Navarro (8) is having a career year and should overcome Pennetta (28) in 3R and clay-tough Muguruza (21) or Kerber (11) in 4R. In a squeaker, Sharapova d. Suarez Navarro.
Semis
Serena rarely loses to the same player twice in a row, Cornet notwithstanding. Would love to see super- Petra show up, but even that may not be enough from a determined Williams. SWilliams d. Kvitova.
Sharapova barely eked out the title over Halep in last year’s final. Halep may have improved this year
but hard-hitting Maria is not a great matchup for her. Sharapova d. Halep.
Final
Serena d. Sharapova. Serena may be most vulnerable in the early rounds, but if she gets this far she’s
money.
Men’s draw
Quarters
While Tomic (27) could pose an actual threat in 3R to Djokovic (1), Gasquet (20) and Anderson (15) in 4R do not. Next door, all names pale beside 9-time champion Nadal’s (6). A QF matchup is almost unthinkable for the top two bookies’ favourites, but so the draw gods have decreed. Meeting before the final should help Djokovic as Nadal may not yet have reached full French form. Despite 6 wins to no losses for Nadal, this ‘match of the tournament’ probably goes to Djokovic, despite what I’ve written above. Novak has just been too strong, and Nadal too shaky for me to see it any other way… although it’s far from a sure thing. Djokovic d. Nadal.
His first two clay titles, including a win over Nadal, mean Murray (3) is a serious contender for the title. Kyrgios (29) is young, explosive, and cannot be underestimated in possible 3R. Ferrer (7) is the most likely QF opponent, and has owned Murray on clay. The old Murray, that is. Murray d. Ferrer.
Nishikori (5) could face trouble in 3R at the hands of Verdasco (32). Nearby, Berdych (4) newly minted at #4 in the rankings has a dicey 4R with Tsonga (14). Nishikori has the skills to take this, but generally struggles at majors, while Berdych has shown tremendous form this year. Berdych d. Nishikori.
Federer (2) has lost his last two on clay to Monfils (13) and this year’s 4R could be no different. Seeing the rest of the Big 4 piled up on the other half of the draw prompted Federer to say he has a chance to go very deep this year – pretty much guaranteeing he will not. Wawrinka (8) needs to finally beat Garcia-Lopez in 3R to go deep, himself. Wawrinka d. Monfils.
Semis
If he can get by Nadal, no one will stop him, especially Murray who crumples in his presence. Djokovic d. Murray.
Berdych has not thriven on clay, but this is his year. Berdych d. Wawrinka.
Final
I’m predicting a re-match of the Monte Carlo final. Berdych made it close for a while, but in the end, Novak won. Djokovic d. Berdych.
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