2016 Wimbledon Women's Preview

Wimbledon 2016 –Women’s Preview

What does Garbine Muguruza’s victory at Roland Garros mean for tennis? Will she be able to play at a high level for Wimbledon?  Is she a legitimate contender for Serena Williams’ role as #1?  Is Serena done winning majors, or is she just ‘resting’?

Muguruza’s victory at Roland Garros was surprising but not a complete shock.  Beforehand, she was deemed fourth-most likely by the bookies to take the tournament, pegged at 10:1 odds.  Anytime we welcome a new slam champion to the fold is a cause for celebration... especially a young one like Garbine, only 22.  She displaces Petra Kvitova as the last-born person to win a slam.

Muguruza is one of 11 active players to have won a singles major:  Serena, Venus, Sharapova, Azarenka, Kvitova, Kuznetsova, Ivanovic, Kerber, Schiavone, and Stosur.   (There would be four more if it were not for the retirements in the last four years of Li, Bartoli, Clijsters, and Pennetta.)  These 11 players are probably the best bet to win this Wimbledon, even if we have had a new winner in each of the last three slams (Muguruza, Kerber, and Pennetta).

Sharapova is out with a drug suspension. Azarenka has withdrawn because of injury.  Ivanovic last made a major final in 2008, and Kuznetsova in 2009.  Neither of them has been past the 4^th round at Wimbledon since 2007, so they can safely be counted out.  Schiavone has only made it past the 4^th round once (2009) and is now 36 years old.  Stosur is a more reasonable 32, but despite a game seemingly well-suited for grass, has never made it past the 3^rd round.

That leaves five of our slam winners.  Two of them have not won Wimbledon before: Muguruza and Kerber.  Kerber had deep runs to the quarters in 2014 and to the semis in 2015, so she can play on grass.  She’s been a little up and down this year since her break through win in Australia, but that’s hardly unexpected.  As of Jun 17, the bookies have her as their 5^th favourite at 20:1 odds.  She is a wild card, but not an unreasonable one.

Muguruza, the newly crowned French Open champ was also last year’s Wimbledon runner up.  If she were to follow up her first slam victory with another victory in the next slam it would not be unprecedented, but it is definitely uncommon.  It’s been done by Venus Williams, Mandlikova, Evert, and Goolagong in the open era.  Muguruza has the talent to go all the way at this Wimbledon, but I would be very surprised if she does.  It’s a lot to sort out mentally in three weeks.  Looking at her longer term, she could become a multi-slam winner like Kvitova, Azarenka, or maybe even Sharapova.  But she has not demonstrated the consistency of a Serena or Henin when they were her age. But times are changing, so perhaps anything is possible for her.  The bookies have her as their #2 at 5:1.

Kvitova has two Wimbledon titles and her go for broke style is well-suited to the lawns.  Her woeful inconsistency, however, means it’s anyone’s guess whether she will sweep gloriously to victory or slink out of an early round.  She’s #3 with the bookies at 6:1

That leaves the Williams sisters.  Venus is an elderly 36 but back in the top 10 at #9.  Despite five Wimbledon titles, she has not been to the semis this decade.  When everything clicks, she can still beat anyone, but to do it seven matches in a row seems like asking too much.  The bookies have her ranked only #20 at 50:1 odds.

For Serena anything is possible.  Will she match Graf with major #22?  Anything less will seem like a failure.  She’s been to both slam finals this year, an accomplishment that would be heralded for anyone else, but the tennis community is asking if this is the end for her.  She’s still #1 in the rankings, and #1 in the yearly race.  She may or may not win this Wimbledon, but she is far from done.

First Quarter

Serena could run into Kristina Mladenovic (seed #31) or Heather Watson in the third round and Sloane Stephens (#18) in the fourth.  All three are dangerous.  Timea Bacsinszky (#11) made the quarters last year but standing in her way in the fourth round this year could be grass-savant Coco Vandeweghe (#27) recent winner at ‘s-Hertogenbosch.  Former #1 Wozniacki is unseeded and could upset Kuznetsova (#13) in the first round in a clash of former top 2 players.

SWilliams d. Vandeweghe

Second Quarter

This quarter is a viper’s nest of grass court specialists, headlined by Aggie Radwanska (#3).  The 2012 runner up thrives on grass, but just lost this week in the quarters of Eastbourne to Dominika Cibulkova (#19).  The two could meet again in the fourth round of Wimbledon.  Aggie’s third round could bring up Caroline Garcia (#30) who won the grass event in Mallorca last week.

Cibulkova faces former Wimby semifinalist Lucic-Baroni in the first, and in the third could meet former finalist Bouchard (unseeded) or Johanna Konta (16) who upset Kvitova en route to the Eastbourne semis.

The bottom half of this section features two-time champion Kvitova (#10), former quarter-finalists Makarova, Strycova (24), Paszek, and Pironkova, as well as rising teen Belinda Bencic (#7).  Seeing any of these names in the semis would not be a surprise and the quarter seems ripe for upsets. 

On balance I have to go with the frightening inconsistency of the powerful Kvitova.  When she’s on, nothing on grass can stand in her way...

Kvitova d. ARadwanska

Third Quarter

Madison Keys (#9) could meet 2014 semi-finalist Simona Halep (5) in the fourth round.  Keys won the tune-up in Birmingham and has the sort of big game that can go far on grass.  Only Serena won more slam rounds than Keys in 2015, and Madison was a quarterfinalist here last year.

Australian champ, Angelique Kerber (#4), could go out to dangerous Laura Robson in the first.  Or she could go all the way to final, but she may first have to overcome the redoubtable grass skills of Karolina Pliskova (#15).  Pliskova is into the final of Eastbourne this week.

Keys d. KaPliskova

Fourth Quarter

Five-time champ, Venus Williams is seeded #8 this year and looks to have a favourable draw.  If she can keep the matches short and get a high percentage of first serves in she is always a threat on grass, despite recent middling results.  She looks to have a fairly clear path to the fourth round where she could face clay-loving Suarez Navarro (#12).

Sabine Lisicki is a former finalist, and unseeded this year.  She could give Stosur (#14) nightmares in the second round and could go for a deep run.  We will soon see the mental state of Muguruza (#2) when she faces big-hitting Camila Giorgi in the first.  She’s slated for a third rounder with Safarova (#28) who made the semis two years ago.  Garbine should get by Lisicki, but it’s no gimme.  Muguruza has the game to take the title, but I think that will be too much to ask so soon after her French victory.  She could well lose early, but I think it more likely she will take this quarter.

Muguruza d. VWilliams

Semis

I think it’s highly doubtful that Kvitova will actually make the semis, but she has the best game in her quarter to do so.  A decisive victory over Serena would not be unprecedented despite Serena’s victories in their two previous Wimbledon tussles, but given Kvitova’s inconsistency, Serena should make it through to the final.

SWilliams d. Kvitova

Keys has only once been to a slam semi-final.  But her talent is evident and Serena dubbed her a future champion after they played in Rome this year.  Muguruza seems to have the mentality and game to take her to many more major championship finals in the future.  But I suspect the timing, on the heels of Roland Garros, will favour Keys.

Keys d. Muguruza

Final

Coming into 2015 Serena had lost only four slam finals versus 21 wins.  Having now lost two finals this year, surely Serena will not fall victim a third time?!  Nothing is certain in sport, and especially in women’s tennis these days.  

Slam final record of the most prolific slam winners

Player	Titles	Runner-up’s
Court	24	5
Graf	22	9
SWilliams	21	6
Wills	20	3
Navratilova	18	14
Evert	18	16

Keys has the talent to pull this off, but she has not often been to the winner’s circle in tournaments at any level, let alone the highest echelon of the sport.  She only has two tournament victories, although the same could be said of Stosur when she beat Serena in the 2011 US Open final; and Li and Muguruza both had only 3 previous titles before their first slam wins.  But it would be crazy to bet against Serena.

SWilliams d. Keys

Odds from bet365.com on 17 Jun 2016

1	SWilliams	2.5
2	Muguruza	6
3	Kvitova	7
4	Azarenka	9
5	Kerber	21
6	Keys	21
7	Halep	26
8	ARadwanska	26
9	Bencic	26
10	KaPliskova	34
11	Bouchard	34
12	Vandeweghe	34
13	Safarova	41
14	Stephens	41
15	Bacsinszky	41
16	Lisicki	41
17	Wozniacki	51
18	Ivanovic	51
19	Konta	51
20	VWilliams	51
21	Mladenovic	67
22	Konjuh	67
23	Makarova	101
24	Jankovic	101
25	Babos	101
26	Svitolina	101
27	Ostapenko	101
28	Pironkova	101
29	Garcia	101
30	Petkovic	151
31	Pavlyuchenkova	151
32	Siegemund	151