This draw looks truly open. Even though six of the top ten won’t play, there are ten players in the draw that have won slam titles, totalling 47 slams (almost half by Serena Williams). Meanwhile those six of the top ten that aren’t playing, hold only four slam titles. We are certainly going to miss Ashleigh Barty and Simona Halep, the world’s top two, but neither have won at the US Open before, and as for last year’s champ, Bianca Andreescu... much as I would love to see her play again, it appears it is injury keeping her out so she wasn’t going to play anyway, regardless of covid protocols. Even if everyone were playing, my top two picks would be the same. All of this makes it pretty tough to say that this US Open will deserve an asterisk of any kind.
Top Quarter
World #3 Karolina Pliskova lands as the top seed. She is obviously good and reasonably consistent to get to where she is. But since her run to the US Open final in 2016, she seems to get tight in the latter stages of slams, so she is far from my top pick.
Angelique Kerber (17th seed) will be trying to add to her impressive three slam titles – still fourth highest among active players now that Clijsters is back and Sharapova is gone. If she gets hot she could feasibly make the semi in this weakish quarter. She did make the fourth round at the Australian Open, but mostly underperformed last year.
Petra Martic (8) is the next highest seed in this quarter, and I’d give her about equal chance with Marketa Vondrousova (12), Yulia Putintseva (23), and Kristina Mladenovic (30) to make the quarter-finals.
Other players to watch in this quarter: Caroline Garcia, Jennifer Brady (28), Allison Riske (13).
KaPliskova def. Putintseva
Second Quarter
Here’s where things start to get a bit denser. Naomi Osaka (4) is one tough customer. She’s lost only twice on hard courts since the US Open last year. She also took a stand for Jacob Blake and single-handedly delayed for a day the Cincinnati tournament (actually played in New York this year) for both women and men. Will she be too distracted to concentrate on her tennis effectively? Will she pull out at the US Open in protest? If the two-time slammer plays she will be hard for anyone to handle.
Looming as a potential third round opponent is the precocious Coco Gauff, now at the advanced age of 16. It was Gauff who took Osaka out of Australia, at exactly this stage. For all her speed, defensive ability, and focus, I think Gauff’s game will continue to grow in aggression as she matures. And then watch out! But she has a tough opener against the variety of Anastasia Sevastova (31).
Anett Kontaveit (14) seems capable of beating almost anyone, but has been to the quarters of a slam only once in 20 attempts. That QF was in Australia this year, so perhaps the break through is coming. She did reasonably well in Palermo in early August, making the final, and she tore through three matches in “Cincy” before a hard-fought 7-5 in-the-third loss to Osaka.
Petra Kvitova (6) is capable of great things at slams as two Wimbledon titles attest, and she’s been to two US Open quarters before. Her first round loss at “Cincy” this week is hardly encouraging, but this is the WTA, so it probably means nothing.
Other players to watch: Elena Rybakina (11) who started the year on a tear making four finals in the first two months, Dayana Yastremska (19) – her determination impresses me, Camila Giorgi, and Danielle Collins.
Osaka def. Kvitova
Third Quarter
Here we find the legendary Serena Williams, seeded 3rd. She’s played two warm-up tournaments and the results have not been heartening, going out to Rogers and Sakkari. She’s become a step slow when she gets pulled wide and the rest of the tour is on to it. But a lot of Serena’s troubles seem to stem from her mind. She’s still absolutely formidable, and can beat anyone when she’s on and believing in herself. Her timing and power are still enviable. Will she believe?
Former US Open finalist Madison Keys (7) seems to be on a slow descent since her peak in 2017. Still only 25 years old, she will likely turn it around at some point. Garbine Muguruza (10) made the final in Australia in January, and owns two slam titles. But her results seem wildly erratic. Will the winner or the self-doubter show up in New York? Her draws looks manageable.
Other players to watch: Maria Sakkari (15), Amanda Anisimova (22), Sloane Stephens (26) – who likely won’t last long.
SWilliams def. Muguruza
Bottom Quarter
There are lots of interesting names in this quarter, like Victoria Azarenka, Kim Clijsters, Venus Williams, and Sophia Kenin (2). They have 14 slams together, and for good measure there is two-time slam finalist Vera Zvonareva in the midst of a comeback, about to turn 36 and with a ranking of 270. Zvonareva opens against promising young Canadian Leylah Fernandez who was rocketing up the rankings before covid intervened.
Kenin won the Australian Open with a seeding of 14. She did not look good in losing her first match at “Cincy”, but then playing Alize Cornet who defeated her, is often tricky. Kim Clijsters looked very strong in the off-season playing team tennis. She will have good memories of this slam, site of three titles and her victorious comeback in 2009.
Victoria Azarenka has gotten stronger all week in “Cincy” and is in the final at time of writing. She has the bad luck to possibly run into compatriot Aryna Sabalenka (5) in the second round. Azarenka’s hard-hitting game looks textured compared to Sabalenka’s sledgehammers.
Venus Williams has a very tough opener against the talented Karolina Muchova (2). Their winner could possibly play Johanna Konta (9) in the third round. Konta was strong in making the semis of “Cincy” this week, and tends to do well in slams.
Other players to watch: Taylor Townsend – who served and volleyed past Halep last year, Elise Mertens (16), Ons Jabeur (27) – quarter finalist in Australia, and Kaia Kanepi who has been in six slam quarter finals.
Konta def. Clijsters
Semi-finals
I have a lot of doubts about Serena Williams. She looked unfocussed in both the Australian and “Cincy” – prone to mental collapse. I think she will put that behind her. But I think Osaka is the woman to beat. Her intensity and ability have her at the top of the pecking order for me.
Osaka def. KaPliskova, SWilliams def. Konta
Final
Osaka def. SWilliams
Expert Picks
Osaka – 5 picks – Joel Drucker (tennis.com), Steve Flink (tennis.com), Cale Hammond (tennis.com), Jordaan Sanford (tennis.com), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated)
Kvitova – 2 picks – Ed McGrogan (tennis.com), Matt Fitzgerald (tennis.com)
Muguruza – 1 pick – Steve Tignor (tennis.com)
Mertens – 1 pick – Nina Pantic (tennis.com)
Odds
Decimal odds from oddschecker.com on 28 Aug 2020
|
1 |
Osaka |
5 |
|
2 |
SWilliams |
6 |
|
3 |
KaPliskova |
9 |
|
4 |
Kenin |
12 |
|
5 |
Kvitova |
13 |
|
6 |
Muguruza |
17 |
|
7 |
Konta |
17 |
|
8 |
Keys |
19 |
|
9 |
Sabalenka |
19 |
|
10 |
Mertens |
21 |
|
11 |
Brady |
21 |
|
12 |
Azarenka |
21 |
|
13 |
Kontaveit |
23 |
|
14 |
Gauff |
26 |
|
15 |
Rybakina |
26 |
|
16 |
Yastremska |
34 |
|
17 |
Kerber |
34 |
|
18 |
Sakkari |
34 |
|
19 |
Muchova |
34 |
|
20 |
Martic |
41 |
|
21 |
Vondrousova |
41 |
|
22 |
Swiatek |
41 |
|
23 |
Jabeur |
46 |
|
24 |
Stephens |
51 |
|
25 |
Teichmann |
51 |
|
26 |
Alexandrova |
67 |
|
27 |
Riske |
67 |
|
28 |
Pegula |
67 |
|
29 |
Vekic |
67 |
|
30 |
Putintseva |
67 |
|
31 |
Sevastova |
67 |
|
32 |
Clijsters |
81 |
|
33 |
VWilliams |
81 |
|
34 |
Bellis |
81 |
|
35 |
Giorgi |
101 |
|
36 |
Garcia |
101 |
|
37 |
Mladenovic |
101 |
|
38 |
Sasnovich |
101 |
|
39 |
Collins |
101 |
|
40 |
Tomljanovic |
101 |
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