There’s been an exodus of top men from the draw in Miami, especially, it seems, slam winners. Of the eight active players who have won slams, only one is playing Miami, and he is ranked only #45, Marin Cilic. Without the Big Four (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray), Wawrinka, Del Potro, and Thiem, we get a chance to look into the future. Opportunity knocks for the Next Gen to prove themselves in Miami, a tournament that features the largest draw of the year outside of the slams.
First Quarter
The top seed is world #2 Daniil Medvedev. Astonishingly, if Medvedev makes the semis he would overtake Djokovic for #1 in the non-adjusted rankings. But because of the special rankings due to covid, Djokovic’s record-setting tenure atop the official rankings (he’s just passed Federer for top spot in total weeks, at 313) looks to be safe till at least Wimbledon, maybe even the end of the year. Medvedev has been on a tear since the Paris Masters last November. I expect it to continue.
Medvedev’s quarter looks fairly soft. Felix Auger-Aliassime (seeded 11) can play phenomenally but usually wilts to higher ranked players. Roberto Bautista Agut (7) can be super tough and beat almost anyone with his metronomic consistency. But Medvedev plays that game better than RBA.
John Isner (18) has been to the last two finals in Miami, taking the title in 2018, but he has not found his best form yet this year.
Medvedev d. Auger-Aliassime
Second Quarter
Alexander Zverev (3) made the quarters in Australia, suffering a four set loss featuring two-tiebreaks, to Djokovic. He won the Acapulco 500 last week, avenging five consecutive defeats to Tsitsipas in the final. Last year he made his first slam semi-finals and final. In short, his star is rising, his mind is maturing, and he is entering his prime years at age 23. He is a strong threat for the title.
Jannick Sinner (21) is an intriguing young player, only 19, who would be ranked #13 in non-adjusted rankings. That is future-slam signalling territory for his age bracket. He appears to be finding his mental range at the moment. He clearly has a huge, hard-hitting game and decent mental tools, but has been prone to blowing leads this year. I suspect he will sort it out soon, but I’m not sure that time is this tournament.
The streaky fortunes of Grigor Dimitrov (9) appear on the upswing this year. He made the quarters in Australia but seemed to suffer a mid-match injury that saw him get blown out of the last two sets by Aslan Karatsev. I’ll hedge for Dimitrov to go on a deepish run here.
David Goffin (8) is still good enough to beat most players with his un-overwhelming game, but often runs into an in-form power player who proves too much to handle.
Zverev def. Dimitrov
Third Quarter
Two of the most intriguing players of the last several months land in this section, both Russian, Andrey Rublev (4) and Aslan Karatsev (17). On January First of this year, virtually no one had heard of Karatsev, even some avid tennis fans. He was mired at #112 in the rankings, an unnoticed 27-year old, apparently in mid-career arc. But his ascent actually began last year. In the un-adjusted rankings he would have finished 2020 at #47, marking his debut in the top 50. Forced to play qualifying for Australia, he became the first man in the Open Era (since 1968) to make his main draw slam debut as a semi-finalist, winning eight consecutive matches to do so. So far only Djokovic and Thiem have been able to stop him this year, and last week he captured the 500 in Dubai over a sterling field. Although ranked an impressive #27 in the ‘frozen’ official rankings, he would actually have made his top 10 debut this week at #9 if the rankings had not been adjusted for covid. He is noted for his enormous calves and for walloping the ball off both sides to deadly effect.
Andrey Rublev’s rise has been only slightly less dramatic. Two years ago as a 21-year old he was ranked in the hundreds after an injury setback interrupted a climb that had peaked at #31 in 2018. But then he rattled off a 23-match winning streak at ATP 500 tournaments, second only to Federer’s 28-match streak. Along with solid quarter-final performances at the last three majors, this propelled Rublev to #8 in the frozen rankings, and would be #3 in un-adjusted rankings. He has not yet shown much propensity for beating the very best players, but as one of the hardest hitters on tour, it seems only a matter of time before a big breakthrough becomes possible. This 1000 in Miami might be the ideal stage to do it on.
Also here is 19-year old Lorenzo Musetti, the youngest man in the top 100. He made his top 100 debut at #94 this week after a semi-final run in Acapulco that saw him beating the likes of Dimitrov, Schwartzman, and Tiafoe. At the risk of sounding like an old refrain, in the un-adjusted rankings he would be ranked #25, having given notice with wins over Wawrinka and Nishikori at the Rome 1000 in October.
Karatsev d. Rublev
Fourth Quarter
Canadians Denis Shapovalov (6) and Milos Raonic (12) could collide in the fourth round. Both are playing decently well, but it is actually the lower ranked Raonic who would be in the top 10 of the unadjusted rankings, which means his recent results are better than Shapovalov’s.
By dint of slow and steady improvement and the absence of so many top players, we find Stefanos Tsitsipas seeded #2 at this significant tournament. Although he could meet former slam-finalists Kevin Anderson and Kei Nishikori (28) on his trip to the quarters, they are far from their best form. Opportunity knocks in this quarter, although both Alex De Minaur (15) and Lorenzo Sonego (24) are young players here that have shown flashes of brilliance.
Tsitsipas d. Raonic
Semis
Medvedev vs Zverev is a rivalry we could see a lot of in the next few years. It currently stands at 5-4 for Zverev, but Medvedev has won the last three encounters. Both players have been in good form, and this could be a serious clash of high quality tennis. Based on his incredible record of the last five months I gave the edge to Medvedev.
Medvedev d. Zverev
While I am obviously a Karatsev believer, picking him to go this deep, he’s still fairly untested in really big matches. How firm is his own belief that he belongs at this level?
Tsitsipas d. Karatsev
Final
Medvedev-Tsitsipas is another rivalry we might get used to in the coming years. Daniil is firmly in control of this one 6-1.
Medvedev d. Tsitsipas
Bookies
Decimal odds from oddschecker.com on 23 Mar 2021
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3.3 |
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4.8 |
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8.0 |
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8.2 |
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15.3 |
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21.8 |
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25.8 |
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27.2 |
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31.5 |
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42.5 |
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43.5 |
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46.3 |
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46.8 |
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50.2 |
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55.9 |
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67.1 |
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75.1 |
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76.3 |
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81.0 |
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81.3 |
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86.1 |
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87.0 |
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94.7 |
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101.0 |
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