The only former champions in this year’s Wimbledon draw are Elena Rybakina, Petra Kvitova, and Venus Williams. With Rybakina recovering from a viral illness and Kvitova’s and Williams’ last victories coming 9 and 15 years ago, respectively, this draw feels wide open.
First Quarter
Iga Swiatek showed encouraging signs this week,
making semis in Eastbourne, before pulling out with a fever. She’s also been blessed by the draw, with
most of the bookies’ favourites landing in the other half, particularly the
deadly third quarter. Only one of the
bookies’ top-ten pre-draw picks is in her half, Coco Gauff. Plus Swiatek should
be motivated to keep her #1 ranking: her run of 67 weeks on top might end if she
doesn’t make the final and Sabalenka does.
It’s already the 13th longest #1 streak in WTA history.
However, there’s still the question of her grass court
pedigree. It’s not long and her loss to
Cornet in last year’s fourth round is worrisome. Iga generally prefers slower surfaces, so
Wimbledon grass is outside of her normal wheelhouse. But between her wins this week and a softish draw,
I’m predicting a deep run for her.
Coco Gauff (seeded #7) had a decent run this week
before losing to Keys in the semis of Eastbourne. She’s been to the second week at Wimbledon
twice.
Daria Kasatkina (11) is into the final of Eastbourne
this week, but could meet Victoria Azarenka (19) in Wimbledon’s third
round – a matchup Azarenka leads 5-0.
Some returning veterans in this section include former semi-finalist
Barbora Strycova, and a first rounder between Elina Svitolina and
the ageless Venus Williams – a shame they can’t both advance.
Swiatek def Gauff
Second Quarter
This is the dartboard quarter. Jessica Pegula (4) and Caroline
Garcia (5) are the highest seeds and of the two only Garcia has made a
fourth round here. Liudmila Samsonova
(15) won a grass tournament – but it was two years ago. Veronika Kudermetova
(12) and Donna Vekic (20) were both runners-up in grass events this year.
Katerina Siniakova is into a final on grass this year (yet to be
played). And Marie Bouzkova (32)
made quarters at Wimbledon last year.
The resumes are all a bit thin, so an unknown emerging here
would be perfectly reasonable.
Vekic def Siniakova
Third Quarter
This is where the fireworks begin – one of the most loaded
slam quarters in memory.
Both last year’s Wimbledon finalists are here: Rybakina and Jabeur. Elena Rybakina (3) has been my pick
for this title since last year. However,
recently she’s been out with a ‘viral illness’ that caused her to withdraw from
both the French Open and Eastbourne. Her
blend of smooth power tennis, dominant serve, and unshakeable demeanor would
make her the clear favourite to repeat, but the illness has me second-guessing
how ready she will be to go all the way.
If she can survive the first few matches, her chances of lifting the
trophy will significantly improve.
Her path is full of landmines, starting with giant-killer Shelby
Rogers in round one. Next up could
be Alize Cornet who took Swiatek out last year. The third round could bring up Katie
Boulter who won Nottingham two weeks ago.
After that could follow the irrepressible Jelena Ostapenko (17) a
former slam winner whose swing-for-the-fences style is often at its best on
grass, or Beatriz Haddad Maia (13) who just made the French semis and won
two grass tournaments last year. And
that’s only half of this quarter.
Ons Jabeur (6) made two slam finals last year. She’s had a decent year in 2023, winning
Charleston and making quarters at Roland Garros. Her all-court wizardry of slices, drop shots,
net approaches, and off-speed hits is particularly effective on grass.
Petra Kvitova (9) is a two-time winner here and
should not be discounted. She’s won a
grass-court tune-up, which is fairly typical of her. In the last nine years that pre-Wimbledon win
has not resulted in success on the main stage, and I suspect that will be the
case again. But with Petra, anything is possible.
Runner-up here in 2021, Karolina Pliskova (18) is
also in this quarter, a potential all-Czech third-rounder with Kvitova. She is only slightly more predictable than
her country-woman, but there’s little in her recent form to suggest a deep run.
Bianca Andreescu should not escape mention, the
former US Open champion has struggled with injury through much of her career
but is still only 23 and capable of almost anything.
Jabeur def Rybakina
Fourth Quarter
Aryna Sabalenka (2) is the section’s top seed and
made the semis when she was last allowed to play here in 2021. She’s an improved player since then. Her tune-up on grass resulted in an
unconvincing loss to Kudermetova, but I put little weight on it. Her hard-hitting game should translate well
to grass and her movement has only improved.
My brother says Sabalenka is his pick to go all the way and that’s
perfectly reasonable, as many experts agree, however I think an in-form Swiatek
or Rybakina would be favoured based on movement.
French Open finalist Karolina Muchova (16) could be a
significant obstacle for Sabalenka in the fourth round. Twice a quarter-finalist here, Muchova’s slicey,
serve-and-volley game looks perfect for grass.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if Muchova is still in a bit of a slam
hangover – flushed with success from the Parisian clay.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (21) is especially potent on
grass having won two of her four career titles on the surface, the most recent
just two weeks ago. If she had landed in the second quarter of this draw I’d
likely pick her for the semis, but as it stands she’s slated to go through
Muchova and Sabalenka just to get to the quarters.
Barbora Krejcikova (10) made third round and fourth
round here in her last two appearances.
A round further into the quarters would not surprise.
Madison Keys (25) has had a middling year but is into
a grass final this weekend and has been in the second week at Wimbledon three
times.
Paula Badosa has two fourth round appearances here
but recent poor form has the former #2 unseeded in this year’s event.
Mirra Andreeva is just 16 and probably won’t make it
far, but she is certainly precocious.
Sabalenka def Krejcikova
Semis
Swiatek def Vekic
Sabalenka def Jabeur
Final
Much to my own surprise, I’m picking Swiatek to hoist the
Venus Rosewater dish in two weeks time.
Swiatek def Sabalenka
Expert Picks:
Rybakina (5): Joel Drucker (Tennis Channel), Ed McGrogan
(Tennis Channel), Steve Tignor (Tennis Channel), Todd Woodbridge (AO Panel), Stephen
Boughton (The Slice)
Sabalenka (5): Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis Channel), Alycia
Molik (AO Panel), Wally Masur (AO Panel), Casey Dellacqua (AO Panel), Matthew
Crist (gambling.com)
Kvitova (4): Matt Fitzgerald (Tennis Channel), David Kane
(Tennis Channel), Nicole Pratt (AO Panel), Simon Rea (AO Panel)
Swiatek (2): Jon
Levey (Tennis Channel), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated)
Bookies picks:
Decimal odds from bet365.com on 30 June 2023
|
1 |
Swiatek |
3.5 |
|
2 |
Rybakina |
4.75 |
|
3 |
Sabalenka |
6 |
|
4 |
Kvitova |
13 |
|
5 |
Gauff |
15 |
|
6 |
Jabeur |
17 |
|
7 |
Vekic |
21 |
|
8 |
Muchova |
23 |
|
9 |
Kasatkina |
29 |
|
10 |
Krejcikova |
29 |
|
11 |
Kudermetova |
29 |
|
12 |
Ostapenko |
29 |
|
13 |
Keys |
34 |
|
14 |
Alexandrova |
41 |
|
15 |
Pegula |
41 |
|
16 |
Sakkari |
41 |
|
17 |
MAndreeva |
51 |
|
18 |
Garcia |
51 |
|
19 |
Samsonova |
51 |
|
20 |
Haddad Maia |
67 |
|
21 |
KaPliskova |
67 |
|
22 |
QZheng |
67 |
|
23 |
Bencic |
101 |
|
24 |
Martic |
126 |
|
25 |
Azarenka |
151 |
|
26 |
Badosa |
151 |
|
27 |
Bouzkova |
151 |
|
28 |
LFerandez |
151 |
|
29 |
Giorgi |
151 |
|
30 |
Vondrousova |
151 |
|
31 |
Svitolina |
201 |
|
32 |
Tsurenko |
201 |
|
33 |
Andreescu |
251 |
|
34 |
LFruhvirtova |
251 |
|
35 |
Siniakova |
251 |
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