Tale of the Year
It came down to the last match of the year. Iga Swiatek had to win it to be #1 on the WTA
computer ranking. She did, and eased
past Aryna Sabalenka by a mere 245 points.
But on balance when we look at the whole year, Swiatek is a pretty
convincing #1. She won six tournaments,
double what Sabalenka won, and 68 matches, nearly a quarter more than
Sabalenka’s 55. But that is not the
whole story, because Sabalenka had a very fine year, gaining #1 and winning her
first slam title.
Sabalenka started on fire in Australia, winning, Adelaide
and the Australian Open. She took down a determined Elena Rybakina in a
hard-fought three-set final, and won 13 straight matches to start the year. She
traded clay-court finals with Swiatek, losing to her at the 500 in Stuttgart
but winning the 1000 in Madrid.
In the meantime Rybakina made both finals of the Sunshine
Double taking the title in Indian Wells.
She also won the Rome 1000, and by June was ranked in the top
three. It looked at this point that the
WTA had a legitimate top three, far above the rest of the field. Heading into
Roland Garros, each of the three had won a major clay court event and there was
great speculation over how the French would play out. However Rybakina had a
less impressive second half and had slipped to #4 by year end.
Barbora Krejcikova took down the entire top three in taking
the 1000 in Dubai, and Swiatek began recovering from her slow start claiming
the 500 in Doha. Iga then won her third
Roland Garros title over surprise finalist Karolina Muchova. Iga was righting the ship but not before she
lost the #1 ranking for eight weeks to Sabalenka in Sep-Oct. The talented Muchova
was a pleasant surprise and continued her fine results losing tight two-setters
to Coco Gauff in the both the Cincinnati 1000 final and the US Open semis. Unfortunately she did not play after the USO.
Wimbledon was generally surprising. Ons Jabeur reached her third slam final but
her opponent Marketa Vondrousova, although a French Open finalist in 2019 (to
Barty), was a 150:1 longshot for a Wimbledon title. It was heartbreaking to see how very much
Jabeur wanted the title. But that very
desire had her constantly going for too much.
Vondrousova put up a backboard, made the odd judicious winner and Jabeur
essentially handed her the trophy. Vondrousova had respectable finishes in the
quarters of both Cincy and the US Open, but then ended the year on a six match
losing streak.
After Wimbledon, Coco Gauff hired Brad Gilbert as a coach
and rode a wave of positivity to the 500 title in Washington, the 1000 in Cincinnati,
and the (2000) US Open, her first slam title.
Although it’s been four years since she burst on the scene, she is still
a teenager. She went on to the semis of both the Beijing 1000 and the WTA
Finals 1500.
Jessica Pegula took the 1000 in Canada and a 250 in Seoul,
before running to the final of the WTA Finals where she got buzzed by
Swiatek. Maria Sakkari took the 1000 in
Guadalajara over a depleted field, and just hung on to a position in the
yearend top ten.
Swiatek finished strong, taking the 1000 in Beijing (her
sixth 1000) and the WTA Finals crown.
She finishes at yearend #1 for the second straight year, the first
player to claim two #1’s by that age since Martina Hingis in the 1990’s. To cap the year, Canada won the Billie Jean
King Cup behind strong play from Leylah Fernandez.
Top Ten Predictions
At the end of 2022 I predicted a top ten for 2023 as
follows:
|
|
Predicted for 2023 |
Actual |
|
2023 Actual Top Ten |
|
1 |
Swiatek |
1 |
1 |
Swiatek |
|
2 |
Sabalenka |
2 |
2 |
Sabalenka |
|
3 |
Garcia |
20 |
3 |
Gauff |
|
4 |
Jabeur |
6 |
4 |
Rybakina |
|
5 |
Gauff |
3 |
5 |
Pegula |
|
6 |
Rybakina |
4 |
6 |
Jabeur |
|
7 |
Pegula |
5 |
7 |
Vondrousova |
|
8 |
Sakkari |
9 |
8 |
Muchova |
|
9 |
Kudermetova |
19 |
9 |
Sakkari |
|
10 |
Halep |
-- |
10 |
Krejcikova |
This was one of my better years for WTA predictions, getting
seven at-least-in the top 10. Of the
remaining three, two were in the top 20 and one didn’t play at all. The surprises for me were all Czechs: Vondrousova,
Muchova, and Krejcikova. And a fourth
Czech, Petra Kvitova finished at #14. I
don’t think I’m particularly prone to underestimating Czechs, I guessed
Krejcikova at #18 for 2023, but the performances of Vondrousova and Muchova,
both slam finalists, were unexpected and very laudable.
For next year I think it will come down to Swiatek, Sabalenka,
and Gauff. That’s the current top three,
so a bit of a boring pick, but the question is who will come out on top? Sabalenka was the best at the slams this
year, making at least the semis everywhere.
She also made semis at the WTA Finals, but only made semis at three of
eight 1000’s she played. She claimed
three titles for the year, third best.
|
2023 Finals |
Titles |
Runners-up |
Points from finals |
|
Swiatek |
6 |
2 |
6955 |
|
Sabalenka |
3 |
3 |
5725 |
|
Rybakina |
2 |
2 |
3850 |
|
Gauff |
4 |
0 |
3650 |
|
Pegula |
2 |
3 |
2870 |
|
Jabeur |
2 |
1 |
2050 |
|
Vondrousova |
1 |
0 |
2000 |
Sabalenka’s game has few holes. She forces the play with her serve and with
her ground strokes off both wings. Her mental yips are largely in check…
largely... She missed out on #1 for 2023
by one match, so getting there in 2024 is perfectly reasonable. But I think Gauff and Swiatek have more
up-side.
Gauff showed what the power of positivity can do by
claiming her first Slam title without fixing her forehand. It seems the key for her is to not overthink
that shot. I did get the feeling however
that she was riding a bit of a mental bubble to pull off her amazing
summer. Can she keep it up? I suspect she will increase her overall level. She’s probably the best athlete on the women’s
side, in terms of movement and defense.
But I don’t expect her to maintain her US Open-winning form. It will show up from time to time. And reaching #1 someday is expected, but I’m not
sure that will be 2024.
Swiatek finished the year very strongly. This is the fourth surge we’ve seen in her
career. The first took her to the French
title in 2020. The second lasted from
March to September in 2022, the third happened in spring of this year to nab
her third French title, and the fourth occurred in the fall of 2023, to claim two
big titles and the yearend #1 ranking.
Her surges are getting closer together, and she’s learning to raise her
game when it counts. I expect that her
determination, superior movement, and excellent ground strokes will continue to
win for her most of the time. I’d say
she’s the front-runner to finish 2024 at #1.
But it won’t be without challenge.
So that has me at 1. Swiatek, 2. Gauff, 3. Sabalenka for
predicting 2024. For #4, Rybakina
seems the obvious choice, were it not for her dreadful finish to the year. I question whether she has the self-confidence
to believe she really has what it takes to be #1. Her movement is not great (but passable),
however her strokes are sublime. But
will she believe? I’ll be looking for
her to claim some 1000’s in 2024 and threaten at the slams, especially the Aus
Open and Wimbledon.
Her main competition for #4 may come from Jessica Pegula.
Although Pegula’s ranking dropped from yearend #3 to #5, she actually has
nearly 1300 more points this year than last.
So I see 2023 as another step forward for Pegula. She claimed her second 1000 title, but
continued to be blocked at the quarter-finals in the slams. She now has six QF finishes at the slams,
warranting comparison to Andrey Rublev on the men’s side who has nine without
ever making a semi. Odds are that will
end for Pegula in 2024. She beats the
players she’s supposed to beat, and occasionally those above her. But I continue to think she can get
over-powered. She lacks a significant weapon, something that slam champs
usually have. She may be at her ceiling,
and she’ll be 30 in February. But a slam
semi? Definitely in the cards!
Ons Jabeur is my default pick for #6. The so-called Minister of Happiness has
looked fairly miserable since losing her third slam final, and the second at
Wimbledon. I fear she mistakenly
believes her cheery disposition should be substituted for a more dour ‘killer
instinct.’ But I think the real problem
is ‘wanting it too much.’ I think she’ll
do better to let go of expectation and try to enjoy her tennis. Like Pegula she
turns 30 this year so the clock is ticking.
Her best surfaces seem clay and grass, and she can trouble anyone.
After that top six, the bottom drops out. I’m a bit mystified who to pick for #7, since
the list of contenders is so long, and dare I say, unreliable. I can’t seem to pick so I’ll just start
listing a few.
Naomi Osaka.
The four-time slam champ hits the cover off the ball and could slug her
way to #1. As long as she doesn’t have
to play on clay or grass. She’s
supposedly improving on those surfaces.
We’ll see! And then there’s her
mental fragility. Motherhood seems to
have worked wonders for no end of players, so perhaps we’ll see a consistent
version of Osaka. The kind that blitzed
the 2020 US Open for the cause of Black Lives Matter. Will the distractions of motherhood allow her,
by contrast, to focus on court? And how
much scar-tissue will she have from the drubbing she received at the hands of
Swiatek in 2022? It may take her a while
to play into form. Maybe she can claim
another US Open, where she has thrived.
Realistically I expect a peak from her at some point, but consistency
has not been her endgame.
Karolina Muchova is one of those snake-bitten players
who can’t seem to shake the injury bug – like Del Potro or Berrettini. The talent is undeniable. She hasn’t played since the US Open. If she had the hardihood of a Pegula, she’d
be a shoo-in for the top ten, probably top five. Theoretically she’s playing two warm-ups and
the Australian Open in the next month.
Fingers crossed…
Marketa Vondrousova.
I may as well buy a dart board. ‘Unpredictability’
thy name is Marketa. The injury concerns
aren’t as dramatic as with Muchova, but even when she’s playing she can switch
from the sublime to the ridiculous during a single match. Surely the Wimbledon title must have given
her more confidence, right? … must have…
Maria Sakkari won her first 1000 this year. A very positive step. Astonishingly, this is
only her second WTA title – and she’s 28. She can blast anyone off the court,
even Osaka, but give her a lead and all bets are off. Is there a more nervy
player? She’s managed to hold it
together for three consecutive yearend top ten’s. I’ll predict her for another to ensure she
doesn’t make a fourth.
Simona Halep’s woes continue. She and those around her seem convinced she’s
innocent of the doping she has been convicted of. Another appeal looms. Mostly I’m appalled at the way the WTA and
the tennis establishment have handled this.
She finished twice atop the yearend computer rankings, but she is
already 32 years old. If she does come back after two years away, will she
still have the game to find her way back to the top?
Beatriz Haddad Maia sits at #11 and did dip her toe
into the top ten in June. After years of
never getting past the second round of a slam, she broke through to the semis
of the French, giving Swiatek an almighty scare, and has looked strong ever
since.
Ludmilla Samsonova has some of the purest strokes
around. She’s been steadily improving
every year, currently at #16. Last year
she claimed three titles, this year she made three finals, but they were at
bigger tournaments – a 500 and two 1000’s.
The slams have proved her bogey. If
she can breakthrough to at least the quarter-finals, then the top 10 can’t be
far behind.
Jelena Ostapenko seems to be edging back toward the
top ten, currently at #13. Her game has
lost none of it precocity since her meteoric splash to the Roland Garros title
in 2017 on her 20th birthday.
Her propensity to swing for the fences is certainly a problem for
Swiatek, over whom she enjoys a 4-0 head to head.
Barbora Krejcikova is another unexpected French Open
champ. Her pure athleticism and hand
skills propel her to a big title occasionally, but like her fellow Czechs,
predicting when this will occur is a job for soothsayers and those who toss
bones.
Madison Keys is still remarkably only 28. It feels like she’s been ‘finally breaking
through’ for decades. Great hands and
strokes, iffy movement and mentality.
She nearly made a second US Open final this year, so perhaps she still
has a story to write, but I’m feeling increasingly like the ship has sailed.
Petra Kvitova is absolutely deadly… once or twice a
year. This year she came from nowhere to
claim the Miami 1000 and a 500 on grass, and then, just as quickly disappeared. Bafflingly, she has not been past the fourth
round at Wimbledon since claiming her second title there in 2014. She swings away, and sometimes it works…
Qinwen Zheng is higher in my estimation than this
placement might suggest. The 21-year old
Chinese player seems to have nothing but up-side. She claimed her first title this year, and in
only her second year playing slams, made it to the US Open quarters. She’s played Swiatek tight, if ultimately
falling short, but she’s definitely one I’ve got my eye on.
Former #1 Caroline Wozniacki returned for three
tournaments of the US Open swing after three and a half years away from the
game. She notably made the fourth round
at the US Open before losing a three-setter to eventual champion Gauff. It’s tough to know how good her form will be,
and how much she will play.
Angelique Kerber is also planning a comeback. She’ll turn 36 during the Australian
Open. I won’t be expecting too much from
her, maybe a deepish run at Wimbledon.
So how do we emerge from that confusing menagerie?
|
|
Predicted for 2024 |
|
1 |
Swiatek |
|
2 |
Gauff |
|
3 |
Sabalenka |
|
4 |
Pegula |
|
5 |
Rybakina |
|
6 |
Jabeur |
|
7 |
Muchova |
|
8 |
Sakkari |
|
9 |
Haddad Maia |
|
10 |
QZheng |
For 11-20 I’ll take Ostapenko, Samsonova, Vondrousova, Osaka,
Keys, Kvitova, Krejcikova, Leylah Fernandez, Linda Noskova, and Mirra Andreeva. Of the last three, Fernandez is the eldest at
21, while Andreeva is only 16. All three
looked primed for a jump from their current positions.
In the 21-30 spots I’ll dubiously predict Kasatkina, Bencic,
Kudermetova, Azarenka, Svitolina, Navarro, Kenin, Xinyu Wang, Wozniacki, and Stearns.
Notable absences from this list include Kerber, Garcia,
Alexandrova, Karolina Pliskova, and Kostyuk.
Slam Predictions
Australian Open
The Australian Open looms and I should be producing a fuller
prognostication in a fortnight’s time with the benefit of two weeks of warm-up
tournaments to bias my predictions. So
with nothing to go on, there are two influencers for my gullible mind, end of
year form from 2023, and past performance at the Aus Open. Without a doubt the end of 2023 was all
Swiatek. She looked like a greyhound
racing confused dachshunds in the final weeks of the year. Trouble is her record in Australia is far
from sterling. Three rounds of 16 and a
semi are decent but not the resume of a champion.
The best AO resumes belong to Osaka and Azarenka who each
have two Aus titles. At 34, little is
expected of Azarenka even if she did make the semis last year. But Osaka might
have a real chance if she can play her way back into form and get a little help
from the draw gods since she will be unseeded.
But it’s an outside shot, given Naomi’s rust. An even longer shot would be 2018 champ,
Caroline Wozniacki.
After those three, Sabalenka’s record, champ last year, is
the most impressive. Sophia Kenin is
also a former champ but has only won one match there over the last three years. Rybakina evidently enjoyed the conditions
last year – fast courts, slow balls – finishing runner-up. Another contender might be Coco Gauff, who
has twice been to the fourth round. She’s
also the winner of the most recent hard court slam. Can she channel the positivity to do it
again?
After that Pegula and Jabeur should be considered. Pegula’s been to the quarters the last three
years and is surely due for a break through, while Jabeur has the talent to
shine anywhere.
Summing it all up, I’ll take Swiatek has my favourite, with
Sabalenka second, followed by Rybakina, Gauff, Pegula, and Jabeur. The bookies have, in order, Swiatek,
Sabalenka, Rybakina, Gauff, Osaka, and Pegula.
All my bookies picks are from bet365.com on 29 Dec 2023.
Roland Garros
Iga Swiatek. Three-time
champ, loves clay, end of story.
The only other two former champs likely to play are
Krejcikova and Ostapenko. And while they
cannot be counted out, they are not exactly favourites. Coco Gauff has been in
the final before and looks like a good bet for a runner-up spot. Sabalenka narrowly lost in the semis this
year and has the game to win anywhere.
If Muchova is healthy, big if, she’d be my #4 pick. And I still believe in Jabeur enough to have her
in my top five for RG. Nor should Elena Rybakina be counted out. Her victory last year in Rome made me a
believer in her clay game. The bookies’
top six are Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina, Gauff, Muchova, and 16-year old and
Mirra Andreeva.
Wimbledon
At Wimbledon Vondrousova, Rybakina, and Kvitova are the most
likely former champs to play the tournament, with Kerber and Venus Williams
reasonable possibilities. Vondrousova and
Kvitova are in the ‘unpredictable’ camp for me.
Rybakina may be more of a threat. Despite being a consistent top three
presence through most of 2023, Rybakina’s results did not consolidate her as a
top player. I think Rybakina is actually
a reasonable threat to claim a second Wimbledon. Her quick reactions and heavy strokes work
well on grass where foot speed is not so important.
But my favourite is likely Sabalenka. Aryna lost a tight semi-final to Jabeur, her
second semi-final showing at the Big W. Her overall consistency should take her
deep again. For runner-up it’s hard to
overlook Jabeur, finalist the last two years.
The main question is, after so many close calls, will Jabeur be
demoralized? Her varied game is well-suited to grass, if she can only let go of
the pressure, she could go all the way.
For third I’ll take Rybakina, and in fourth, Gauff. She hasn’t been past the fourth round, but Gauff’s
initial breakthrough took place at Wimbledon in 2019. Muchova has twice been a quarter-finalist,
and if she’s healthy her wonderful volleys should take her far. Although I’m
tempted to take reigning champ Vondrousova as my sixth favourite, I can’t
ignore the talent of Swiatek. Iga made a quarter-final last year and has been
steadily improving her grass game. The
bookies ordered it: Swiatek (surpisingly), Sabalenka, Rybakina, Jabeur, Osaka
(never been past third round), Pegula.
US Open
At the US Open, I’ll have to pick between the last two
champs, Swiatek and Gauff. Swiatek may
be the superior player at the moment, but it’s tough to know how the year will
unfold – a lot could happen between now and the US Open. Gauff’s home crowd advantage has me tipping
the balance in her favour. Sabalenka
came oh so close this year, and the fundamentals of her game are so solid, I’ll
take her as my third choice.
Naomi Osaka get’s my next vote. It’s a bit of a punt. She’s won the title twice before but there’s
just no telling how she will come back to the game. Will she have the mentality to become a top
player again? If she does, she could
certainly win the US Open and many other titles. Rybakina is too good to ignore
and for the sixth choice I’ll take Jabeur.
She rises to the occasion at big events, and as a previous runner-up she
knows she can go deep here. The bookies
have Swiatek, Sabalenka, Rybakina, Gauff, Pegula, and Mirra Andreeva as their
top six.
Summation
Now that Swiatek has put together two yearend #1 seasons,
odds are she will do it again. Previous active
players to do it, Kenin (2020), Halep (2018), Muguruza (2017), Kerber (2016),
Kvitova (2011), all look very unlikely to rise to the top again. The most serious challenges are likely to
come from Sabalenka, Gauff, and Rybakina.
But with women’s tennis, you never know when a new star will
emerge. I’ll also be keeping an eye on
the returning mothers brigade of Osaka, Wozniacki, Svitolina, and Kerber. Which will have the best year? Let the games
begin!
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