2024 US Open Men Preview

It’s a big three, but it’s not the old Big Three.  The betting odds show a three-horse race is expected between Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic for this title.  Next follow Zverev and Medvedev, and then there’s a cliff in the odds.  Do the bookies have it right?

 

First Quarter

Jannik Sinner has been #1 for a quarter year now.  And for the first half of this year, that seemed pretty accurate.  But he actually achieved that ranking right after the French Open on June 10, right when it stopped feeling relevant.  There’s always a lag in the rankings, because they’re based on the last year of results.  And although Sinner seemed to own the year right up until his semi-final with Alcaraz at Roland Garros, since then, the game has shifted. 

Alcaraz has gone on to win the French, Wimbledon, and a silver at the Olympics.  Sinner?  He’s been battling a hip injury.  Granted he did just win the Cincinnati 1000 on Monday, and while his victories in the last three rounds over Rublev, Zverev, and Tiafoe were impressive, he didn’t have to face the rest of the top three. 

Then on Tuesday a story broke that is most damning for athletes – a doping accusation.  Although Sinner has been cleared of all charges in what was apparently an accident committed by his massage therapist, the mere hint of scandal can turn both the crowd and the locker room into enemies that can halt a player’s momentum. 

Although it sounds to me like the situation was handled well by the ATP and the doping agencies, the unevenness of Sinner’s treatment compared to say, Simona Halep, who was raked through the coals and couldn’t play for years only to be exonerated of doping, is galling.  Best case scenario is that the tours have learned from the Halep debacle and what we see of Sinner’s treatment will be the new standard for all players going forward.  But already other players’ hackles are up, alleging favouritism by the ATP for its new darling #1.  The ATP is hardly innocent, having completely swept under the rug Agassi’s doping scandal in the 1990’s.  So is this another cover-up?  At least we’ve heard about it when it’s still fresh, not years later from the player’s tell-all book.

How will Sinner deal with the negative publicity?  On the one hand he’s well-liked and oozes sincerely dorky honesty. Perhaps the New York crowd will be gentle… (ha!)  On the other hand he’s shown a lot of ice and mental toughness so perhaps he can ski through.  But he’s also not used to criticism, so it’s anyone’s guess. Of at least equal concern is the hip injury that’s been slowing him the last few months.  Between the scandal, the injury, and not having beaten Alcaraz or Djokovic since the Australian in January, I’m not convinced Sinner is the favourite for the title, despite the number one seeding.

Near him in this quarter is Tommy Paul (seeded 14).  Paul has been having a banner year, but his form over the last two weeks on North American hard has been a let down.  Is it just a blip?  To better last year’s fourth-round performance he’ll likely have to get through Sinner – a big ask.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (11) has been notoriously bad at the US Open, having never been past the third-round in six attempts.  Lucky for him his first-round opponent, Thanasi Kokkinakis, has only ever won one match at the Open.  But Kokkinakis is always a tough out, especially in best-of-five.

Felix Auger Aliassime (19) has been out of the top ten for a while now, but there were encouraging signs in his run to the semis at the Olympics. He faces a tough opener against talented Czech teen Jakub Mensik.  Should he survive, Felix has got a reasonable chance to go deeper than Tsitsipas, but it gets a bit dicier if he should meet Daniil Medvedev (5) to make the quarters. 

The US Open has been a happy hunting ground for Medvedev, where’s he made three finals and picked up a career-defining Slam trophy.  But this is the first in the last seven years in which he hasn’t claimed a title.  He started the year well enough, with a run to the Aus Open final in January – his sixth slam final.  But after blowing a two-set lead, his year has been slowly deflating.  Will he revive in the familiar battleground of Queens, where the crowds will prod him to life?

First-rounders to watch:
Paul vs Lorenzo Sonego
Tsitsipas vs Kokkinakis
AugerAliassime vs Mensik.

Sinner def Medvedev

 

Second Quarter

After years of facing Federer or Nadal in the semis of every slam, Djokovic has been having a good run of dodging both Sinner and Alcaraz until the final, and he does it again.  This is the Carlos Alcaraz (3) quarter. Alcaraz had kind of a slow start to the year, picking up his first title at the Indian Wells 1000 in March, and then playing only one clay tournament before Roland Garros.  But’s it’s been a banner year since, taking the French-Wimbledon double and winning silver at the Olympics.  He’s on the cusp of re-writing the record books – on much the same pace as was run by Nadal and Borg before him.  Will he continue?

The joke is that he’s lost his last two matches to 37-year olds – to Djokovic in Paris and then Monfils in Cincinnati.  Watch out anyone younger! Last year he kind of troughed after Wimbledon – turning in a rather middling second half.  But the year before he broke through and won at the US Open.  So which Alcaraz will we get?  I’m hoping for the latter but kind of expecting the middling one.  So far in his career his highest points have been followed by… less high points.  He hasn’t yet mastered the consistency that Federer and Djokovic showcased.  I expect he will get there, but it seems to be a skill that takes a few years to develop. On the other hand, his tennis is of the most explosive kind and who in the quarter can stop him?

Jack Draper (25) is still improving and had a good run to the Cincy quarters last week. Sebastian Korda (16) may finally be living up to his potential and recently won the 500 in Washington and made the semis at the Canada 1000.

Also here is Alex DeMinaur (10) who’s been having his best year, but hasn’t played since having to withdraw from his quarter-final at Wimbledon with a hip injury.  Hubert Hurkacz (7) is having a great year but has never been past the second round at the Open in six attempts.  Maybe Karen Khachanov (23) can still find some magic.

Alcaraz def Khachanov

 

Third Quarter

Alexander Zverev (4) is solidly number four these days.  He can take matches from the top three. He can beat everyone else.  He’s got an Olympic gold, two yearend championships, and six Masters 1000 titles, but he just can’t seem to win a slam. His serve is superlative, his backhand magnificent, his forehand serviceable, but it’s between the ears where he gets let down.  The nerves.  He may be playing his best tennis ever.  Will it be enough against the best with the title on the line?

Nearby is Holger Rune (15).  This contemporary of Alcaraz looked to be an axle in the new big three, but he’s fallen behind.  The talent is still there, however, as evinced by the clean ball strike.  His coaching has probably been holding him back, or perhaps it’s is inability to listen.  He will probably get through this phase at some point – not sure that time is now.

Lorenzo Musetti (18) recently made semis at Wimbledon and won the bronze at the Olympics.  He’s a dad, but is younger than his compatriot, Sinner. So far, hard court slams have not been friendly to him.

Matteo Berrettini (unseeded) has had some good showings in New York, including two quarters and a semi.  He’ll be a nightmare for any seed, even Taylor Fritz (12), a possible second-round clash, whose beaten Matteo all three times they’ve played.  Fritz seems to have locked down a spot in the 8-12 range the last few years.  His best slam is Wimbledon but he did make the quarters here last year.  He’s now been in four slam quarters without advancing.  Can he finally go one better?

I’m not sure what to make of Casper Ruud (8).  He seems a little less relevant than the last two years when he made at least a slam final each year.  Clay is really his thing, oh… except for that surprise run to the US Open final two years ago.  I think he’s lost and searching for the magic right now.

AZverev def Fritz

 

Fourth Quarter

It’s getting tougher to deny Djokovic’s GOAT-hood.  Especially given the era and the competition he’s had to face.  Here he is, 37 years old, and fresh off an Olympic gold medal.  Does he have anything left to prove? No.  Does that matter?  Probably not.  Will he be motivated?  If there is any last possible goal he would want to accomplish it would be slam #25.  That would break the tie with Margaret Court (meaningless though her number may be). It would remove all dispute.  Plus getting to five US Open titles would tie him for most in the Open Era, at least for men, with Connors, Sampras, and Federer. 

Frances Tiafoe (20) has suddenly revived by making semis in Washington and the finals of Cincy.  He thrives at the US Open, and I could easily see him making a semi-final run here… if he were in Zverev’s quarter.  But instead he’s got a possible Shelton in the third, Novak in the fourth situation.  Tough sledding.

Ben Shelton (13) really landed in the spotlight last year by making semis at the US Open.  Since then, his head has been catching up to his body.  He’s solidly in the top-15 now, knocking on the door of greatness.  He’s got huge game and athleticism, and especially that serve.  But I think he’s still got some incubating to do before he unfurls at the top.

Andrey Rublev (6) has had some highs and lows this year.  He suffered a horrendous melt-down in Dubai in February that saw him cursing an official in Russian, beating himself, and ultimately getting defaulted for it all.  It’s been hot and cold since: a ton of early losses, but also a 1000 title in Madrid and a 1000 final in Canada last week.  That latest run included a win over Jannik Sinner.  But the knock on Rublev at the slams will always be the quarter-final record.  He’s now 0 for 10, an all-time record for both men and women.  It’ll be a tough ask to change that if he meets Djokovic at this slam.

And I would be remiss not to at least mention Alexei Popyrin (28) who, out of nowhere, won the 1000 in Canada last week. I won’t expect much from him after that high, but it’s worth noting that he’s made third round at a slam at least six times before.

First-rounders to watch:
Rublev vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
Shelton vs retiring and former champ here, Dominic Thiem

Djokovic def Rublev

 

Semis

There’s a downside to all three of the top guys at this tournament.  Questions about Djokovic’s motivation, questions about Sinner’s media headspace and hip, and questions about Alcaraz’s current form.  In the end, I think we need to assume they’ll all bring their best.  It’s what the best do.

Alcaraz def Sinner

Djokovic def Zverev

 

Final

It would be Sinner’s second slam, Alcaraz’s fifth, or Djokovic’s 25^th.  Whoever takes it is likely to be regarded as #1 for the year, regardless of what the rankings say.

Alcaraz def Djokovic

 

Expert Picks

Alcaraz – 6 picks – Steve Tignor, Joel Drucker, David Kane, Peter Bodo, Jon Wertheim, Gill Gross

Djokovic – 4 picks – Ed McGrogan, Matt Fitzgerald, Liya Davidov, Alex Gruskin

Rublev – 1 pick – Stephanie Livaudais

Sinner – 0 pics – this is a shocker!

 

Odds

From bet365.com on 21 Aug 2024:

1	Alcaraz	2.5
2	JSinner	3
3	Djokovic	3.25
4	AZverev	11
5	DMedvedev	13
6	Fritz	41
7	Tsitsipas	41
8	Rune	41
9	Rublev	51
10	Tiafoe	51
11	Shelton	51
12	CaRuud	67
13	SKorda	67
14	Auger Aliassime	67
15	JDraper	67
16	Berrettini	67
17	Dimitrov	67
18	Hurkacz	81
19	DeMinaur	81
20	TPaul	81
21	Eubanks	101
22	Khachanov	101
23	Shapovalov	101
24	Musetti	101
25	Mpetshi Perricard	126
26	Popyrin	126
27	Coric	126
28	Fils	151
29	Arnaldi	151
30	Monfils	151
31	Tabilo	151
32	Wawrinka	201
33	Jarry	201
34	Lehecka	201
35	Struff	201