2025 Yearend Women’s Tennis and 2026 Predictions

 

Aryna Sabalenka was #1 all year, yet we had four different slam winners.  Is it an age of parity or dominance?  Can Sabalenka keep it up next year, or will someone new win a slam or enter the top ten?

 

Story of 2025

The year began with Aryna Sabalenka winning the first tournament of the year in Brisbane.  In the same week, Clara Tauson beat Naomi Osaka in Auckland.  Tauson had a banner year, finishing runner-up at the 1000 in Dubai a month later and finishing the year at a career high ranking of #12.  Can the 23-year old do even better next year?

For her part, Naomi Osaka’s run was a portent of things to come.  Her best results have always been on hard courts, and sure enough she made a run to the Canada 1000 final, and then a few weeks later to the semis of the US Open, where she lost a double-tiebreak three-setter to Anisimova.  She also won a clay 125 in May, showing off some unexpected variety.

In week 2, Madison Keys took the 500 in Adelaide, but then mic-dropped the Australian Open by finally claiming a slam title, ten years after making her first slam semi.  The power and uncomplicated strokes have always been there, but she had long seemed the victim of too much early hype.  Well, she finally came good… silencing the nay-sayers.

Her run was epic.  She beat five top-tenners, three slam winners, and survived five three-set matches.  Her astonishingly deep 8-6 third-set tie-breaker over Swiatek in the semis was gut-wrenching.  And then she did it all again, 7-5 in the third over Sabalenka for the final.  Kudos. Lifetime vindication.

After the tennis world breathed that monster sigh of relief, a few weeks passed and we moved onto the next young thing.  Let the expectations begin.   Mirra Andreeva took the 1000 in Dubai and followed it up with the 1000 in Indian Wells.  This catapulted her into the top ten at #6 where she hovered until mid-October, falling to #9 for yearend.   She turned 18 in April, but then seemed to stall and didn’t make any more big break-throughs on the year.  She’s still young and will doubtless refind that form and challenge again at big tournaments in the years to come.

Sabalenka was runner-up in Indian Wells, and winner at the Miami 1000 – the start to a solid year. The beaten Miami finalist was Jessica Pegula, who finishes at yearend #6.  Pegula made six tournament finals this year, second-most on tour.

2025 WTA Title Matches	Titles	Runner-ups	Total Finals
Sabalenka	4	5	9
Pegula	3	3	6
Anisimova	2	3	5
Swiatek	3	1	4
Gauff	2	2	4
Alexandrova	1	3	4

 

Pegula showed off her diversity by taking titles on clay, grass, and hard.  She was middling at the slams, with her best showings being a fourth round at the French and a semi at the US Open.  That semi is actually her second best slam performance, after last year’s runner-up at the US, so overall she did well, staying in the top ten for a fourth straight year.

Jasmine Paolini did not match last year’s highs (two slam finals), but stayed in the top ten at #8.  Her best work came at her home tournament in the Rome 1000. She had an inspired run, taking out three seeds, before facing Coco Gauff in the final.  She took the title to thunderous applause from home fans, her trademark smile beaming widely, and the world seemed a better place.

Gauff was just coming off another 1000 final, in Madrid. There, she shellacked Swiatek 6-1 6-1, a shocking result to hand to the four-time French Open champion and current Queen of Clay, but ultimately Gauff lost that final too.  However this fine clay form did not go wasted, and Gauff then proceeded to the final of the biggest clay tournament in the world, Roland Garros. In the quarters she took out Madison Keys, ending any hopes of a Grand Slam in 2025, and faced Sabalenka in the title match.  Sabalenka won the first set in a tiebreak, but Gauff settled in and won the third 6-4.  She claimed her second slam title at just 21 years old. 

After another poor Wimbledon result, Gauff decided to retool her serve and was in re-building mode at the US Open.  By fall she was getting back on track and took the Wuhan 1000, ending her year at #3 for a third straight time.  It really looks like we have a Big Three in women’s tennis at the moment.  Sabalenka, Swiatek, and Gauff have now cornered 12 slam titles with lots of time left to win more.

When Iga Swiatek lost in the semi-finals of the French Open to Sabalenka, it meant a year had passed since she had been in a tournament final.  Her frustration seemed to have begun at the Olympics last year, when she lost to Qinwen Zheng in the semis at Roland Garros, the site of four French Open triumphs for Iga.  The loss to Sabalenka ended a 26-match run at the tournament, third longest in history.

French Open Win Streak	Matches	Years
Chris Evert	29	1974-81
Suzanne Lenglen	27	1914-26
Iga Swiatek	26	2022-25
Monica Seles	25	1990-96
Justine Henin	24	2005-10
Helen Wills Moody	24	1924-32

*Includes WHCC 1912-1923, Olympics 2024, does not include French Closed Chps pre-1925.

To everyone’s surprise, Swiatek ended her final-round drought on grass, at Bad Homburg, a loss to Pegula.  She then pulled an even bigger surprise by winning, on her supposed weakest surface, the Wimbledon title.  She became the 22^nd woman in history to win at least six slam titles.  Her final-round white-wash of Anisimova 6-0 6-0 was breath-taking:  Iga at her unrelenting finest.  Granted Anisimova was unbearably nervous, but Iga had the sense to keep her foot to the floor.  She ended the tournament on a 20-game winning streak, three successive 6-0 sets, unmatched in grand slam history.  Like Sinner and Alcaraz, Swiatek will be aiming to complete the career slam in 2026, seeking that final piece of silverware for her trophy case, the Australian Open.

After Wimbledon, the WTA hosted another week of clay tournaments, and the one in Hamburg was won by Lois Boisson. She had made a name for herself by making the semis of Roland Garros, beating Mirra Andreeva and Jessica Pegula along the way.  She was ranked only #361 at the time, but finishes the year at #36. Will the 22-year old continue her rise in 2026?

The next big tournament on the calendar was the Canada 1000. Sabalenka didn’t play, the seeds were mostly upset, and as a result, we had two unseeded players in the final Naomi Osaka and Victoria Mboko.  Four-time slam champ Osaka is far from unknown.  She would go on to make semis at the US Open and finished the year at #16. This is a wonderful return to form after becoming a mother, and may promise big things ahead for Osaka in 2026.

But the then 18-year old Mboko was a revelation.  She won seven matches in a newly expanded 96-player draw.  Along the way she beat four slam champs: Gauff, Osaka, Kenin, and Rybakina. She played three 3-setters in the tournament – one ended in a tiebreak, but the other two were run-aways for Mboko. In claiming her first tournament, a big 1000 no less, Mboko had sustained a wrist injury that translated into four straight losses and an anti-climatic follow-up to her break-through. However she seemed to have overcome the injury in October and ended the year with a second tour-level title, the 250 in Hong Kong.

Swiatek then continued her Wimbledon form and took the Cincinnati 1000 on hard over Paolini.

Amanda Anisimova was on the losing end of Swiatek’s 6-0 6-0 victory at Wimbledon.  It was hard not to feel that the match was a massive failure for Anisimova, but Anisimova remained utterly poised during the post-match presentation and seemed to maintain the perspective that her tournament had been a success. Particularly notable was her 6-4 in the third victory over Sabalenka in the semis.

She then made another final-round run at the US Open, and faced Swiatek again, this time in the quarter-finals. Now she was ready and did not flinch in a 6-4 6-3 victory.  She then took down Naomi Osaka in a semi that saw both women absolutely pulverizing the ball.  Into another slam final, she did not fold under the pressure but found her game to force a hard-fought 6-3 7-6(3) victory for Sabalenka.  She then won her second 1000 for the year in Beijing, adding to the 1000 in Doha she had claimed in February.  It was a banner year for Anisimova, finishing at #4 and putting her firmly in the conversation of future slam champions.

Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah (rank 119) is a name unknown to almost everyone, but this then 19-year old did win a WTA 250 in Sao Paulo in September.  I’ll be keeping an eye on her.  In the same week, 17-year old Iva Jovic won the Guadalajara 500. She’s now ranked #35 and will be keenly followed in 2026. Other teens to watch in the top 100 are Maya Joint, age 19, rank 32; Tereza Valentova, age 18, rank 60; and Sara Bejlek, age 19, rank 92.

Aryna Sabalenka’s year was her best ever.  She held on to #1 for every week of the year, made nine finals, won 63 matches, and had a tour-best win:loss rate, 5.25 wins per loss (Swiatek was second at 3.77).  Although she won the 1000’s at Miami and Madrid, she entered the US Open having lost in the finals of the Australian, French, and Indian Wells.  Notably, she had beaten Swiatek 6-0 in the third at the French, ending Swiatek’s attempted four-peat. But she saved herself from being a lame-duck slamless #1 by marching to the US title, losing only one set.  She was a factor in nearly every tournament she played and finally felt, throughout the year, like a #1, the best player on tour, no longer second-fiddle to Swiatek.

The final tournament of the year saw the resurgence of Elena Rybakina. She began the year amid a storm of controversy around her coach, Stefano Vukov, who was temporarily suspended by the tour amid allegations of abuse.  Rybakina objected, however, and he was re-instated mid-year.  After 116 straight weeks in the top ten, her ranking dropped to 11 in mid-April.  It seemed to be the spur she needed as she then won the 500 in Strasbourg. After a decent but unspectacular summer, she surfaced again by taking the 500 in Ningbo in October.  She then showed she was at her best by taking the tour finals, beating five top players to do so.  She finishes the year at #5 and will be in the conversation for every major she plays in 2026.

 

Prognostications

Australian Open

Naomi Osaka showed a mighty resurgence in 2025.  She’s a two-time winner of the Australian Open and showed good form at this year’s US Open.  Add that to her combined 5-5 win-loss record against the big three of Sabalenka, Swiatek, and Gauff, and she could be a real contender for the title.  But paint me skeptical.  She hasn’t shown a lot of consistency in her return to tour.

Aryna Sabalenka has been in the last three AO finals, winning twice and so is my default pick for the title. After that it’s very tight between Anisimova, Rybakina, and Swiatek.  Anisimova has come oh so close, and still has the itch to scratch of a first slam title.  She will be hungry.  Rybakina was playing lights out at the end of the season, and should still be able to find some of that form.  Swiatek will be motivated by achieving the career slam.  Swiatek can play at a very high level, and at her best, I would take her over the field.  However, increasingly she is beset by doubts and it seems that over-thinking gets in the way of her free-flowing best.

Pegula is not to be underestimated.  She often lives up to her seeding, and if things break her way, could go all the way.  I’ll take her fifth ahead of Osaka, Gauff, and Paolini.

2026 Charles AO prediction	2026 Bookies odds
1 Sabalenka	1 Sabalenka
2 Anisimova	2 Swiatek
3 Rybakina	3 Gauff
4 Swiatek	4 Rybakina
5 Pegula	5 Anisimova
6 Osaka	6 MAndreeva
7 Gauff	7 Osaka
8 Paolini	8 Keys
9 MAndreeva	9 QZheng
10 Muchova	10 Muchova
11 Keys	11 Pegula
12 Mboko	12 Mboko

 

 

French Open

I still believe Swiatek is the best current clay player, especially at Roland Garros.  But she is anything but clutch and seems to psyche herself out of matches through over-intensity. Reigning champion Gauff would be my second choice for the title, and Sabalenka third.  Sabalenka beat Swiatek last year and took Gauff to three sets, so a title looks eminently possible.  Positions four through eight are almost a toss-up.  Paolini’s game seems to work best on the dirt. Mirra Andreeva has her best results here, quarters and semis the last two years. Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng claimed her gold at this site. Elena Rybakina has won a number of big titles on clay, and Amanda Asinimova made her first grand slam break through by making the semis here in 2019.

2026 Charles FO prediction	2026 Bookies odds
1 Swiatek	1 Swiatek
2 Gauff	2 Sabalenka
3 Sabalenka	3 Gauff
4 Paolini	4 MAndreeva
5 MAndreeva	5 QZheng
6 QZheng	6 Rybakina
7 Rybakina	7 Keys
8 Anisimova	8 Paolinia
9 Muchova	9 Anisimova
10 Krejcikova	10 Svitolina
11 Pegula	11 Muchova
12 Svitolina	12 Badosa

 

Wimbledon

None of the current crop of players have a very convincing record at Wimbledon.  The last player to win more than one Wimbledon was Serena Williams.  We’ve had nine different champions in the last nine years and only four of them are still playing.  The best match records there in the last five years belong to Rybakina, 21-4, Swiatek 18-4, Sabalenka 15-3,  and Krejcikova 15-4.  Swiatek may be my first choice because once she figures out how to win somewhere, she likes to make a habit of it.  Rybakina seems to be the choice of most pundits: her late season form has encouraged optimism on her behalf.  Next it comes down to Anisimova or Sabalenka.  Anisimova’s pure strokes function well on low-bouncing grass and her nerves in the final last year stopped her from reaching her full potential.  Sabalenka has three times been a semi-finalist, and her continual improvement to all parts of her game means she increasingly has no weaknesses.

2026 Charles Wim prediction	2026 Bookies odds
1 Swiatek	1 Sabalenka
2 Rybakina	2 Swiatek
3 Anisimova	3 Gauff
4 SAbalenka	4 Rybakina
5 Paolini	5 Anisimova
6 Krejcikova	6 MAndreeva
7 Muchova	7 Keys
8 MAndreeva	8 QZheng
9 Pegula	9 Vondrousova
10 Gauff	10 Paolini
11 Vondrousova	11 Bencic
12 Navarro	12 Samsonova

 

US Open

At the US Open, two-time defending champ Sabalenka has my vote as favourite. I’ll take Anisimova’s clean strokes ahead of Gauff’s superior movement.  However if Gauff can clean up her serve and forehand she could well jump to favourite status.  Naomi Osaka seems to love the Open, and former champ Swiatek can’t be ruled out, either. Pegula has had her best slam results in New York. And while Rybakina most certainly has not had good results there, she did finally make the second week last year and her power and poise mean she can never be counted out. Karolina Muchova rounds out my top eight for the US Open, she’s 14-3 there in the last three years.

2026 Charles USO prediction	2026 Bookies odds
1 Sabalenka	1 Sabalenka
2 Anisimova	2 Swiatek
3 Gauff	3 Gauff
4 Osaka	4 MAndreeva
5 Swiatek	5 Rybakina
6 Pegula	6 Anisimova
7 Rybakina	7 Osaka
8 Muchova	8 QZheng
9 Paolini	9 Pegula
10 Navarro	10 Keys
11 Mboko	11 Krejcikova
12 Keys	12 Muchova

 

Yearend Rankings

At the end of 2024 I made predictions for 2025, as follows:

2024 prediction	2025 Actual
1 Gauff	3
2 Swiatek	2
3 Sabalenka	1
4 QZheng	24
5 Rybakina	5
6 Paolini	8
7 Muchova	19
8 Navarro	15
9 Shnaider	21
10 Pegula	6

 

I got six of my top ten actually making it there: which is fairly decent. The other four finished no worse than 24, so I don’t feel too bad, although I was pretty far out on Zheng.

Looking at the actual top ten for 2025, what predictions had I made for them?

2025 Actual	2024 prediction
1 Sabalenka	3
2 Swiatek	2
3 Gauff	1
4 Anisimova	31
5 Rybakina	5
6 Pegula	10
7 Keys	23
8 Paolini	6
9 MAndreeva	12
10 Alexandrova	>35

 

The climbs of Anisimova and Alexandrova surprised me in 2025.  Nor did I foresee Madison Keys finally fulfilling her potential. But Anisimova is probably the biggest revelation of the year.  Claiming a slam title in 2026 would not really be a surprise, even if I haven’t predicted it, above.

 

Predictions for 2026

Putting it all together and thinking about what the tour outside of the slams might bring, here are my top ten predictions for 2026.

2026 prediction	Current Rank
1 Sabalenka	1
2 Swiatek	2
3 Gauff	3
4 Rybakina	5
5 Anisimova	4
6 Pegula	6
7 Paolini	8
8 MAndreeva	9
9 Osaka	16
10 Mboko	18

 

This is a fairly conservative prediction: eight of my predicted top ten are already in the current top ten.  It’s possible that Osaka will not live up to the promise she was showing in her US Open form, and it’s very possible Mboko will drop a little after such a spectacular break-through in 2025.

My 11-20 predictions are: Bencic, QZheng, Alexandrova, Tauson, Navarro, Muchova, Noskova, Svitolina, Keys, Krejcikova.  For 21-30 I have: Shnaider, Ostapenko, Samsonova, Kenin, Haddad Maia, Vondrousova, VKudermetova, Kostyuk, Badosa, LFernandez.

It’s all highly speculative, especially the deeper I go.  It would be nice to see some new faces breaking into these upper tiers, like Valentova, Jovic, Joint, and Boisson.

 

Final Thoughts

Aryna Sabalenka seemed to get better this year.  She didn’t have the lapses she did in previous years.  She’s improved her fitness and variety.  She’s not quite Sinner-like, but she puts tremendous pressure on her opponents to bring their best, and if they don’t, she hits them off the court.  I don’t see this dominance changing much in 2026.  Coco Gauff has tremendous upside with her athleticism, if she can make some technical changes to her strokes she should soar. Anisimova is my pick for a new slam winner, if there is one, with Andreeva second in that category. And I’m tremendously curious about what Rybakina and Mboko can do in the coming year.  I’m looking forward to it all with excitement.