Wimbledon Men Preview 2013

Wimbledon Men Preview 2013

Who is the favourite?  There seems no clear answer.  The bookies have Novak Djokovic out in front by a nose, followed closely by Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal.  A close fourth is Roger Federer.  In my own prognostications at the end of 2012 I gave a slight edge to Murray.  I thought by now there would be more clarity, but if anything the view is even more muddied.  Currently the four grand slam titles are held one each by a member of the big 4.  Will that continue?

Average decimal odds from bookies.com on 21 Jun 2013

Odds rank	Player	Average odds
1	Djokovic, N	2.23
2	Murray, A	4.28
3	Nadal, R	5.10
4	Federer, R	8.20
5	Tsonga, JW	24.65

Nadal…

So far, this year has seemed all about Nadal.  He’s made the final of every tournament he’s entered, winning all but two of them, and is batting 0.956 in matches for the year.  He’s amassed 7,000 ATP points, well ahead of the 5,030 of Djokovic. 

So why isn’t Nadal the obvious pick for favourite?  Well for starters, he’s only played one tournament off clay this year.  That was on the hard courts of Indian Wells in March.  Granted he won the tournament, but he managed to avoid arguably the two best hard court players, Murray and Djokovic.  We all know Nadal is almost untouchable on clay, but grass is a different story.

He had looked very, very good on grass until last year’s Wimbledon.  He’d made the final the last 5 years he’d played, winning twice.  Like Borg, he seemed to have channeled the channel-slam.  But then the wheels fell off against Lukas Rosol in last year’s second round.  The knees were blamed.  Specifically, hard courts were blamed for the knees.  That struck me as odd since Nadal had just played 2 grass events preceded by 5 clay events.

Similarly, in 2009 when he did not defend his Wimbledon title because of his knees, he had just completed 5 clay events.  It makes me wonder if blaming hard courts is a bogey.  He’s not as good on hard, therefore they are to blame for his problems.  Not sound logic.  The evidence would suggest that the knee problems have always surfaced after the clay season.

However psychological perceptions function as truly as do any other.  But I’ll wonder now if grass has gotten into Nadal’s head the way hard has.  Will he remember the 5 Wimbledon finals or the 2R loss?  Without question Nadal is very good on grass and he has a fine grass pedigree, plus he’s been in stupendous form all year.  But I understand why the bookies have him at #3 in their odds charts – albeit a very short, close #3.

Murray…

Just ahead of Nadal in the bookies’ odds is Andy Murray.  Murray has not looked particularly strong this year compared to Nadal and Djokovic, although he has managed to win three tournaments, Brisbane, Miami, and, significantly because it’s on grass, Queens last week.  He also made the Australian final.  That means he has played in the finals of the last 3 grand slam events he has entered.  Plus victory in the Olympics.  Not bad.  In fact, this is the strongest first half year Murray has ever posted.

Results in last 5 GS events played:

Djokovic	Murray	Nadal	Federer
SF – RG 2012	RU – AO 2013	W – RG 2013	QF – RG 2013
W – AO 2013	W – USO 2012	2R – Wim 2012	SF – AO 2013
RU – USO 2012	RU – Wim 2012	W – RG 2012	QF – USO 2012
SF – Wim 2012	QF – RG 2012	RU – AO 2012	W – Wim 2012
RU – RG 2012	SF – AO 2012	RU – USO 2011	SF – RG 2012

The ‘however’ in the story is the back injury that forced Murray out of much of the clay season, including Roland Garros.  He says he’s conscious of the back and managing it carefully.  Will it be a hindrance?  His victory at historic Queens last week suggests not.  However, a close 3-set win over Marin Cilic in the final is not necessarily an indicator of superlative form.

Murray seems to like grass, and the hometown crowd does not seem to pressurize him negatively.  Despite scoring a career-defining win in last year’s US Open, Murray is actually slightly better at Wimbledon with a 30-7 record, just ahead of 29-7 at USO.  All of this points to a very positive environment at the site of his Olympic triumph last year.  Will it be enough to overcome the juggernaut that is Rafael Nadal or the lean, hungry aspirations of Djokovic?   I understand why the bookies have Murray at least as high as #2.

Djokovic…

The man still ranked #1 in the world by a significant margin (he has 38% more points than #2) is Novak Djokovic.  But it would be hard to say he’s #1 for this year.  Nadal has definitely out-pointed him and has 7 tournament victories to just 3 for Novak.  Granted one of those is the Australian Open.  And while Nadal’s year has been played largely on clay, the remainder of the year’s big tournaments take place on other surfaces.  Advantage Novak.

Nevertheless it wouldn’t surprise me to see some very different rankings after Wimbledon.  The following is certainly possible:

Possible ATP rankings after Wimbledon 2013:

Current ATP rankings		Possible post-Wimbledon rankings
1	Djokovic	1	Djokovic
2	Murray	2	Nadal
3	Federer	3	Murray
4	Ferrer	4	Ferrer
5	Nadal	5	Federer

That’s right, Federer could drop as low as #5 for the first time since early 2003.  But of course, what happens in those #2-5 spots depends on the outcomes.  The only thing that’s certain is that Djokovic will still be #1 when it’s all over.

Longest tenures in ATP top 3:

Player	Longest tenure in ATP top 3 (weeks)	Total tenure in ATP top 3 (weeks)
Lendl	464	496
Federer	432	514*
Sampras	391	457
Connors	377	594
McEnroe	374	374
Nadal	243	375
Edberg	225	342
Djokovic	192*	287*
Borg	189	318

*active

Djokovic has been extraordinarily consistent this year, posting a 33-5 record (0.868), and has been in the SF or better of the last 12 GS events he’s played.  This puts him in a tie for 3^rd on the all time list.

Consecutive SF in majors played:

Player	Consecutive SF in majors played	Time Frame
Federer	23	W 04 – A 10
Crawford	14	A 31 – A 36
Laver	12	W 60 – W68
Djokovic	12	W 10 – F 13
Connors	11	U 76 – U 80

Despite Nadal’s five Wimbledon finals to Djokovic’s one, Novak may be the better grass court player.  If Novak nearly beat Nadal on clay at the French, how much better will he (Djokovic) be on grass?  I think the general feeling is that Nadal has not really been tested off clay this year, whereas Djokovic is the consistency pony.  But is a #1 spot in the bookies’ odds justified?

Grass is not his strongest surface, although his 32-7 (0.821) Wimbledon record is slightly better than his Roland Garros record 36-9 (0.800).  In the last 4 years he’s lost to Federer, Berdych, and Haas at Wimbledon, plus the one victory, beating Tsonga and Nadal in the last two rounds.

I can see why Novak looks the default pick.  Nadal is untested off clay and lost badly here last year; Murray is a clear 4^th among the big 4; and Federer is looking old.  Ergo, Djokovic is the top bookies pick.  But I don’t like it.  I think Nadal or Murray should both be favoured over Djokovic.  Short of his invincibility in 2011, his grass court pedigree does not convince me he should be the top pick at the big W.  However, his draw is favourable.

One last Novak stat:  the time in GS events to reach 140 match victories.  Starting with the first event played, and counting 4 events per year whether a player played them or not, Djokovic is the earliest to reach 140 match wins at slam events.

Player	# of slam events to 140 wins
Djokovic	33
Nadal	34
Borg	35
Federer	36
Sampras	38
Lendl	40

Federer…

Before his title here last year, I was pretty sure the 2010 Australian was Federer’s last major win.  But although he proved me wrong, I’d be surprised if he copped another slam title in his career.  He’s only 6 weeks older than Serena Williams, but he is embattled and beleaguered on all sides, whereas she is running herd over the competition.  Maybe if he had a two-handed backhand like she does, and the other members of the men’s top 4 do, things would be different…

But before we write him off, remember that he still has an active streak for consecutive appearances in GS quarter-finals.

Consecutive QF in majors played:

Player	Consecutive QF in majors played
Federer	36
Evert	34
Graf	31
Connors	27
Wills	22
Tilden	21

He’s also just won a grass court event in Halle, tying him for 3^rd in tournaments won for the open era.  Will Nadal catch him?

Player	Tournaments won (Open era)
Connors	109
Lendl	94
Federer	77
McEnroe	77
Sampras	64
Borg	63
Vilas	62
Agassi	60
Nastase	57
Nadal	57

The win in Halle confirms Federer as winner of most titles on grass in the open era.

Player	Grass court titles (Open era)
Federer	13
Sampras	10
Connors	8
McEnroe	8
Becker	7
Hewitt	7
Borg	6

He’s also one of the winningest players at Wimbledon

Player	Wimbledon matches won
Jimmy Connors	84
Boris Becker	71
Roger Federer	66
Arthur Gore	64
Pete Sampras	63
Roy Emerson	60
John McEnroe	59
Jean Borotra	55

There was a time when everything came easily for Federer:  35 match win streaks, 3-slam title years, victories were plentiful and losses were few.  Without doubt, his powers have declined and the competition has caught up.  But the great ones, when they’re sufficiently motivated, can raise their games, can find that old level, can muster all the knowledge of what it takes to win, and fly again.  Witness Pete Sampras at the 2002 US Open – over 2 years without a tournament victory – before he plowed through the draw and then retired from the game, champion at the end. 

When Federer won Wimbledon last year, I thought that was his swan song, his Pete Sampras moment.  But he’s still here, and I have to believe that means he still thinks he can win.  We don’t know yet if Federer will try to hang on too long, become the old guy in the senior’s home who doesn’t realize he’s lost his mojo.  With 7 Wimbledon titles under his belt, and as defending champion, he’s got to be in with a decent shot.  Will he show us the magic one more time?  It may boil down to how much he wants it.

But there are other players in the draw as well, and some of them may have better chances than Federer.

Top quarter

As #1 seed Novak headlines the draw.  The big news of course is that the rest of the big 4, plus Tsonga (the next most credible threat) are all, ALL, in the other half.  This has to been seen as a huge break for Novak.  The rest of the sharks can tooth it out, and when one of them emerges on the first Sunday of July, bloodied and scarred to face him, he should be significantly fresher.

But his early draw is not all cupcakes and cream.  Florian Mayer, his first round opponent, is at his most dangerous on grass.  Just missing a seeding at #33, Mayer has twice made Wimbledon QF, including last year.  It’s a perilous opening for Novak’s first grass match of the year.  The next round should be less problematic but R3 could bring up Jeremy Chardy, a talented QFist from this year’s Australian.

The fourth round could be even more dangerous with Feliciano Lopez a 3-time QFist at Wimbledon, or Tommy Haas (seeded 13), who not only beat Djokovic in 2009 here to make the semis, but also took out Federer last year on grass in Halle.  Interestingly Lopez’s record here in the last nine years has been 3R QF 1R then 3R QF 1R and again 3R QF 1R.  That puts him on track for 3R this year, so maybe Novak has nothing to fear from him.  Haas however has been revitalized and is just outside the top 10.  The former #2 has the talent to damage anybody.  Djokovic will be sure to be on high alert should that match materialize.

Surviving that, Novak could get Gasquet (9), Berdych (7), or maybe Tomic (unseeded) in the quarters.  Gasquet has made 4R exactly in his last 6 majors, but did make SF here back in 2007.  Tomic made QF here two years ago, and Berdych is a former finalist who beat Djokovic in the semis in 2010.

So he’s got a bevy of former QFists to face, but compared to some of the other quarters, this is a good draw.  The first match might be the toughest.  It should give us a good indication of his form for the rest of the fortnight.

Djokovic d. Berdych

Second quarter

I was prepared to not call Ferrer’s quarter the ‘weak quarter’ at the French.  I mean after all, the guy has been posting a massive amount of wins in the last two years and could very well end this tournament at #3 in the world ahead of Federer and Nadal, if he lives up to his seeding.  But this is not clay, and Ferrer’s record on grass is not awe-inspiring.  Last year was by far his best year on the surface, winning the tournament in s’Hertogenbosch and making QF at Wimbledon.  He also has three 4R finishes at Wimbledon.

Maybe we can call Ferrer ‘solid’ on grass, but the #4 seed seems a bit of stretch.  The next highest seed in this quarter is Juan Martin Del Potro (7), who has not been past the fourth round here.  So yeah, this is a weak quarter.

Ferrer IS consistent, however, and his continuing improvement is inspiring.  He’s 31 now and seems to be getting better and better.  He has not seemed to face the wall Federer has hit with age.  With any showing at Wimbledon, Ferrer will have played in 39 consecutive GS events.  Very respectable, but well below the record 56 of Wayne Ferreira.

Player	Consecutive GS events played*
Wayne Ferreira	56
Stefan Edberg	54
Roger Federer	54
…
Ferrer	38

* thru Fre 2013

So who are the likely candidates for SF glory in this quarter?  Philipp Kohlschreiber (16) is on the best GS run of his career with 4R 3R 4R QF showing in the last 4 slams.  The QF is from last year’s Wimbledon, going down to Tsonga in 4 sets.  He could meet Ferrer in 4R.  Kei Nishikori (12) is up to a career high ranking of #11 and is on a good run but has yet to show his mettle on grass.  Milos Raonic (17) looks to have a fearsome serve for grass but underperforms here and has only managed 2R in two previous outings.

Grigor Dimitrov (29) has obtained the 10^th slot in the bookies’ estimations.  This seems like pure folly to me for an unproven colt.  He certainly looks impressive on the court.  Perhaps results will soon follow.  The bookies place Del Potro (6^th) ahead of Ferrer (8^th) in their guesses.  In short, someone in this quarter is going to have the Wimbledon of their life and make their first ever SF.  But look for that lucky winner to disappear faster than free chocolate in the next round.

Ferrer d. Nishikori

Third quarter

There are some big names in this quarter.  Really big.  As in the titlists in 9 of the last 10 Wimbledons.  Federer (3) and Nadal (5) will have the opportunity to contest their first slam QF if they both make it that far.  Despite the #5 ATP ranking, seeding Nadal #5 at Wimbledon this year is ridiculous.  Sure he was upset in 2R last year.  But there were mitigating medical circumstances and the guy has been in 5 Wimbledon finals, winning twice.  I know they use a formula to determine seedings – the only tournament that doesn’t stick strictly to the ATP rankings, but if they have latitude, why not use it?

Nadal has a pretty straight forward draw.  The next highest seed in his section is Wawrinka (11) who has been reasonably dismal at Wimbledon – by far his weakest slam.  I actually expect him to go out to former champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round.  Rusty is ranked only 82 these days but he tends to play up both at slams and on grass.  Benoit Paire (25) could provide a test in 3R, but I expect Rafael to sail to the quarters with a favourable wind.

There’s nothing in Federer’s portion that would have caused a flicker of annoyance 5 years ago, but these days, Fed seems fragile.  Janowicz (24), Melzer, or even Rosol might test Roger – might raise some self-doubt, even if he gets through them.  Rosol, of course, upset Nadal here last year in what was probably the most-shocking upset I can recall.  Soderling over Nadal at the French is a close second.  But I think Rosol was a little flukey on the day and I don’t expect a repeat against Roger.

Melzer would have to play out of his head, so if Roger is concentrating at all, he should make it through that potential third rounder.  Janowicz could be more problematic.  He’s got the sort of big man, big serve, big drop shot (?!) game that can prove effective on grass.  Last year he went 5-1 at Wimbledon, winning three matches out of qualifying before falling to Florian Mayer in 3R.  I’ll put Janowicz down as the best chance to halt Federer’s QF streak at 36.

But I still expect Roger to get through to the QF.  There’s no reason not to expect another passionate classic should Nadal and Federer face off.  Nadal has looked far stronger this year, but this, if anywhere, is Federer’s court:  7 titles, 8 finals in 10 years.

I suspect that Federer believes that grass is his last best shot at slam glory.  That will probably make him play better.  Federer COULD win this match.  But despite his native grass court talent I don’t think he will.  Nadal’s form is too good and Federer’s too spotty.  Nadal’s mental toughness is stratospheric, and his intelligence in shot selection and ability to play high percentage tennis is unparalleled.  Has tennis ever been player smarter than by Nadal?  High margin for error, reliable shot selection, and ferocious desire to compete.  It’s a winning formula.

Nadal d. Federer

Bottom quarter

More reason for celebration in the Djokovic camp can be found in this quarter.  Not only will Federer and Nadal both not survive the quarters, neither will both Tsonga and Murray.

I’d thought Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (6) had a reasonable shot at Wimbledon this year.  His form has been good – beating Federer and making the semis at the French on what is not his best surface. Transferring to grass, which may indeed be the best surface for his occasionally serve and volley game, Tsonga could have a very reasonable shot of going deep at Wimbledon.  Maybe even winning with a favourable draw – like say fell to the lucky top 8 seeds in the second quarter.  But the draw he faces his murderous.

With the promotion of Andy Murray, Tsonga may be the best player of the open era not to win a slam, just ahead of Tom Okker and David Ferrer.  Consider match-winning records at open era grand slams (since RG 1968):

Rank	Player	Match winning rate in GS (Open era)	Slam winner
1	Borg	0.898	Y
2	Nadal	0.882	Y
3	Federer	0.868	Y
4	Laver	0.857	Y
5	Sampras	0.842	Y
6	Djokovic	0.839	Y
19	Tsonga	0.758	N
29	Okker	0.716	N
33	Ferrer	0.710	N

Tsonga has made the SF here the last two years.  On a good day, I’d put him in with a reasonable chance against any of the top 4 on grass.  But chances are he’ll have to beat 3 of them, and taking out Murrray, Federer/Nadal, and Djokovic in succession is likely asking too much.

He also has the bad luck to be quartered with Murray against whom, of the big four, he has the worst record, notching only one victory 5.5 years ago.  By contrast he has 3 wins against Nadal, 4 against Federer, and 5 over Djokovic.  Tsonga could get Benneteau in 3R and Cilic (10) in the fourth, but those are winnable battles. 

In the bottom section, Andy Murray (2) looks to have an untroubled ride to the fourth round where he could get Youzhny (20) or Tipsarevic (14).  Youzhny is a fascinating character who has made the QF at least once at each slam, twice making SF at the US Open.  He’s particularly adept on grass, having made 4R or better seven times.

After a good warm-up fight from Youzhny, I expect Murray to be in fighting form for Tsonga.  It will be one worth setting the PVR for.  I anticipate high quality grass court tennis.

Murray d. Tsonga

Semis

The first semi should go to Djokovic.  Ferrer will fight as best he can and could stretch it to 4 sets.  If he happens to get any other player than Djokovic, Ferrer will have an excellent shot to make his first Wimbledon final, but against the #1 seed, I expect Ferrer not to have the answers to Novak’s laser-sharp game.

Djokovic d. Ferrer

The second semi could be a classic.  After scintillating quarter-finals, both men should be in fine form.  The Nadal-Murray rivalry is the most-lopsided among the Big 4, with the advantage going to Nadal, 13-5.  Murray has not solved Nadal on grass in 3 previous tries, but I think he will give it a much better push this time.  I think it’s really too close to call.  Even if there are knee issues, Nadal will give it his all and cannot be counted out.  I think Murray has slightly the better grass game, whereas Nadal has a better game overall and has more experience and of course pedigree on grass.  Murray can get down on himself.  Nadal will not.  Nevertheless…

Murray d. Nadal

Final

I think whoever survives the gauntlet of the bottom half will be match-tough and ready for some serious tennis in a way that Djokovic is not likely to have opportunity to be prepared for.  Novak is a quick learner however, and will probably right the ship in time to provide a significant struggle. Whoever it is he faces, however, I expect to get the better of him.

Murray/Nadal d. Djokovic

A victory by Murray would be the first by a male Brit at Wimbledon since Fred Perry in 1936 (77 years).

A victory by Nadal would be his 13^th slam title, leaving him alone in 3^rd place on the all-time list behind Federer (17) and Sampras (14).  It would also provide a very strong argument for Nadal’s candidacy for #1 of the year.  It would lift him to #2 in the ATP rankings immediately after Wimbledon.

A victory by Djokovic would be his 7^th GS title, lifting him into a 9-way tie for 13^th on the all-time list, along with the likes of McEnroe, Wilander, Newcombe, and LaCoste.  It would also cement his claim for #1 for the year.

A victory by Federer would be his 18^th GS title, and would tie him with Jack Nicklaus for most slam titles among men in tennis and golf.  It would also tie him with Navratilova and Evert for 4^th place among players of either gender:  Margaret Court (24), Steffi Graf (22), Helen Wills (20).  It would likely keep him in 3^rd place on the computer, or 2^nd if Murray loses before the semis.  If he does not win the title, Federer will likely be ranked 5^th.

A victory by Tsonga would be his first and the first by a Frenchman since Yannick Noah won the French in 1983, and only the second since Marcel Bernard’s victory at Roland Garros in 1946.  It would raise him only one spot to 6^th in the ATP rankings, unless he faces Berdych in the final, in which case Tsonga would remain 7^th.

Experts

The experts are not showing the strong favourite status they displayed for Nadal at the French.

Choice	# Picks	Opiners
Djokovic	6	Tennis.com – Pagliaro ESPN – Garber Sports Illustrated – Deitsch, Nguyen, Price, Wertheim
Nadal	4	Tennis.com – Bodo, McGrogan, Tignor Tennisserver.com – Bowers
Murray	2	ESPN – Bryant Sports Illustrated – Jenkins

Average decimal odds from bookies.com 21 Jun 2013:

Odds rank	Player	Average odds
1	Djokovic, N	2.23
2	Murray, A	4.28
3	Nadal, R	5.10
4	Federer, R	8.20
5	Tsonga, JW	24.65
6	Del Potro, JM	42.85
7	Berdych, T	45.35
8	Ferrer, D	58.70
9	Haas, T	97.80
10	Dimitrov, G	117.00
11	Cilic, M	129.79
12	Gasquet, R	176.10
13	Raonic, M	177.40
14	Janowicz, J	189.18
15	Wawrinka, S	212.10
16	Gulbis, E	212.42
17	Isner, J	248.85
18	Tomic, B	324.44
19	Hewitt, L	335.50
20	Nishikori, K	345.58
21	Youzhny, M	365.56
22	Kohlschreiber, P	371.11
23	Lopez, F	375.05
24	Almagro, N	389.60