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Australian Open Men’s Preview

 


Novak Djokovic has won the title eight times.  But last year Dominic Thiem led two sets to one in the final before Djokovic out-battled him.  Rafael Nadal destroyed Novak in Paris, can the Spaniard keep that mojo going?

 

First Quarter

Of the four slams, the Aus Open is where Milos Raonic (seeded 14) has his best match-winning percentage, making at least the quarter-finals five times. But the draw has been unkind and he could meet Stan Wawrinka (17) in the third round and Djokovic (1) in the fourth, in what is probably the toughest eighth of the draw.  Wawrinka looked very strong in his warm-up event, from which he withdrew in the quarters.  Alexander Zverev (6) had by far his best showing in the slams last year, making semis here and the final of the US Open.  He looked strong in the ATP Cup the week before the tournament, losing narrowly to Djokovic 7-5 in the third.

Djokovic ‘should’ emerge from this quarter, despite having two losses to Zverev (4-2) and six to Wawrinka (19-6).  But whether or not he does probably depends on his head space.  I’m not convinced he’s recovered from the thrashing he experienced at the hands of Nadal at Roland Garros, and he lost three of four matches to end last year.  On the other hand, he’s bounced back many times before, especially in Australia.

Djokovic d. AZverev

 

Second Quarter

The ever colourful Nick Kyrgios could meet Thiem (3) in the third round.  Kyrgios can beat absolutely anyone, as his combined 5-5 record against Djokovic and Nadal testifies.  Kyrgios’ second round opponent could be Ugo Humbert (29), the up-and-coming, talented, French 22-year old. Is Thiem ready to go deeper than last year’s runner-up performance?  The upper eighth here also features Grigor Dimitrov (18) vs. Marin Cilic and Pablo Carreno Busta (15) vs. Kei Nishikori as first round matches... tough, tough, tough.  Judged by match-winning percentage at the slams, Nishikori and Raonic are the two best players in the draw not to have won a slam.

In the first round of the lower eighth we get shot-maker Denis Shapovalov (11) against skyrocketing 19-year old Jannik Sinner. Very tough for both.  I believe Sinner has a huge future in the game.  Their winner could have a realistic shot at the quarters, although another young gun, Felix Auger-Aliassime (20) could be a third round opponent.  Nor should Diego Schwartzman (8) be overlooked.

Thiem d. Sinner

 

Third Quarter

Daniil Medvedev (4) has a tricky opener against Vasek Pospisil but should be able to mute the Canadian’s aggression.  Medvedev was commanding in taking the Paris Masters and ATP Championships and is on a 13-match win streak.  Like the last hard court slam, he’s slated to meet countryman Andrey Rublev (7) in the quarters. The younger Rublev belts every ball, but it is Medvedev who owns the head-to-head, 3-0. Should they falter, Roberto Bautista Agut (12) has a shot at making life difficult for the Russians.

Of note in this quarter, Feliciano Lopez appears in his 75th consecutive slam singles draw, a record for men and women.  In total appearances he is, I believe, fourth – behind Serena Williams 78, Roger Federer 79, and the colossal 89 of Venus Williams.

DMedvedev d. Rublev

 

Fourth Quarter

Matteo Berrettini (9) looked scintillating in the ATP Cup.  He’s got a difficult opener against Kevin Anderson and is slated to meet Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) in the fourth round.  Tsitispas has had some success at the AO, taking out Federer in a trip to the semis two years ago.  However I expect all to wilt against the supreme will and heavy ball of Nadal (2).  He withdrew from playing the ATP Cup, but I’m guessing it was to save himself for the main event.  I expect him to be in top form.

Nadal d. Tsitsipas

 

Semis

Thiem d. Djokovic

Nadal d. DMedvedev

 

Final

Any of the top four could take the trophy.  Medvedev is ready mentally, I believe, to go all the way.  Djokovic is practically invincible in the latter rounds of the AO, but I haven’t liked what I’ve seen of his mental state.  Thiem probably has his best shot to beat Nadal at a slam, on hard court.  If Nadal wins, he will pull ahead of Federer in the slam derby and will have won every slam twice, something no one else has done (barring amateur slam titles by Laver and Emerson).  If Djokovic should win, he will claim his ninth Australian Open, and with slam #18 would pull within two of Federer and Nadal.

Nadal d. Thiem

 

Bookies at oddschecker.com on 28 Jan 2021:

Novak Djokovic

2.24

Daniil Medvedev

6.01

Dominic Thiem

6.02

Rafael Nadal

6.39

Stefanos Tsitsipas

14.21

Alexander Zverev

16.63

Andrey Rublev

25.32

Nick Kyrgios

27.26

Jannik Sinner

37.58

Alex De Minaur

44.42

Denis Shapovalov

47.42

Milos Raonic

50.47

Stan Wawrinka

55.79

Felix Auger Aliassime

79.88

Roberto Bautista Agut

83.21

Matteo Berrettini

90.84

Karen Khachanov

104.37

Diego Schwartzman

105.42

Grigor Dimitrov

118.79

Marin Cilic

125.24

David Goffin

135.26

Gael Monfils

141.74

Borna Coric

158.17

Kei Nishikori

166.33

Pablo Carreno Busta

168.18

Ugo Humbert

190.50

Kevin Anderson

195.50

John Millman

223.08

Fabio Fognini

228.72

Marton Fucsovics

258.62

Reilly Opelka

259.50

Hubert Hurkacz

276.00

 

 

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