With 15 former slam champions in the draw, this tournament might seem wide open. We could even get a new slam champion: I can think of at least eight likely candidates, headed by Svitolina, Pliskova, and Sabalenka. And yet there are some distinct favourites.
First Quarter
Ekaterina Alexandrova (seeded 29) is one of those eight players who could claim her first slam here. She had a breakout week, blitzing the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champions, Halep and Swiatek, in straight sets. She’s seeded to meet Ash Barty (1) in the third round. Barty made the semis here last year. Barty is into the final of one of the three warm-up tournaments being played on site, so it’s reasonable to expect her to bring some of her best to the coming fortnight. Can the current #1 add a second slam title?
Three more of my eight potential first-time slam winners are in this quarter, Karolina Pliskova (6), Elise Mertens (18), and Belinda Bencic (11). Bencic hasn’t looked strong recently, but the former #4 can turn it on at any time and be a world beater. Mertens is into a tournament final this week and would already be ranked in the top ten if not for the ranking adjustments made due to covid. Pliskova is a former #1 who’s spent 217 weeks in the world’s top ten. Only one of the three could emerge to face Barty in the quarters.
Barty d. Mertens
Second Quarter
The defending champion, Sofia Kenin (4), is known for steely resolve and unflinching mental toughness. She has the potential misfortune of a second round meeting with the powerful Kaia Kanepi who took out Sabalenka and Kasatkina this week on the way to the final of a warm-up event. Kanepi is one of those lightning-in-a-bottle players who can rip a hole in a slam draw in the first week, but fizzles in the second. Also in Kenin’s eighth are three-time slam semi-finalist Johanna Konta (13) and recent US Open semi-finalist Jennifer Brady (22). Brady is particularly dangerous on hard courts and recent form suggests a deep run is possible.
Also here are Elina Svitolina (5) and two-time champ Victoria Azarenka (12). With quarters or better in four of her last six slams, Svitolina is banging on the door of a slam break-through. Azarenka re-emerged during last summer’s hard court swing, taking the 900 in Cincinnati, and removing Serena from the semis of the US Open, losing to Osaka in a tough three-setter.
Svitolina d. Brady
Third Quarter
This is the loaded quarter of the draw, featuring six slam champions. The last time we saw Bianca Andreescu (8) was 15 months ago, capping off a brilliant year rife with tournament titles and victories over top players, including a US Open title over Serena Williams. Since then it’s been a constant series of withdrawals as her injuries are still never ready. I worry that she’s developed a mental block to playing and half expect a last minute withdrawal. She withdrew from her warm-up tournament this week. Despite our Canadian mythos of Canucks as over-achieving fighters: our soldiers in the two world wars, our northern explorers, our hockey players, skiers, and even ice-curlers – our Canadian-raised female tennis players have looked distinctly fragile. All our top open-era players have peaked at age 21 or younger: Basset, Kelesi, Wozniak, Marino, and Bouchard. I only hope the same will not be true for Andreescu , now age 20 and our most accomplished player.
Petra Kvitova (9), a finalist here two years ago, has a reasonable draw and could face Andreescu in the fourth round. Garbine Muguruza (14), last year’s finalist, has looked on the upswing and is in the final of a warm-up event today. She could meet Angelique Kerber (23), winner here in 2016, in the third round.
It’s a murderous section, especially with Naomi Osaka (3), the bookies’ favourite for the title. Osaka has a landmine first-rounder with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Like Kanepi, Pavlyuchenkova has been to six slam quarter-finals without ever making a semi. For the real tennis geek, the female leaders in this category are, I believe, Katerina Maleeva and Carla Suarez Navarro with seven. Osaka seems to be the new alpha in tennis. She’s claimed three slam titles in the last three years and hasn’t lost a match in 12 months – granted she’s only played 11, but she’s won them all.
Osaka d. Kvitova
Fourth Quarter
Aryna Sabalenka’s (7) three-tournament, fifteen-match win streak came to a crashing halt this week with a loss to Kanepi. Sabalenka has tended to under-perform at slams, having never been past a fourth round, but her huge game should reap rewards at some point. Simona Halep (2) is a threat for any title she plays for. I’m sure she’d love to add a third slam to her trophy cabinet. She could have a tough third-rounder against dangerous Veronika Kudermetova (32) who has recent wins over Svitolina and Muguruza. Also nearby is French Open champ Iga Swiatek (15) who had the misfortune (along with Halep) of meeting Alexandrova this week. But if Swiatek can channel the mental clarity she exhibited in her French Open title run, she will be a threat for the title here.
But there’s one other very big name in this quarter that cannot be overlooked: 23-time slam champ, Serena Williams (10). Serena did not look her best in losing to Azarenka at the US Open or withdrawing after one match at the French Open, but she looked reasonably sharp this week, rattling off three victories before withdrawing in the semis to Barty. To me she looks fitter than she has recently, and I do not doubt her desire will be palpable. She can never be counted out and I believe she has a real shot at the title here, site of seven previous triumphs.
SWilliams d. Swiatek
Semis
Barty d. Svitolina
Osaka d. SWilliams
Final
A victory by Barty would be her second slam title and would help legitimize her long tenure, now 61 weeks, atop the more-or-less frozen WTA rankings. It would end a 43-year drought since an Australian was last victorious at her home slam, (45 for the men). Should Serena be victorious she would tie Margaret Court’s record of 24 slam singles titles. I believe that Serena’s current 23 are already far more significant as a measure of Goat-hood than Court’s 24, some of which were won against weak fields, especially at the Australian Open where Court holds 11 titles. Will Osaka be steady enough to come all the way through? She has not been unshakeable in the past. But she appears to be the current alpha. If she wins, it will be her fourth slam title in as many years, all on hard courts.
Osaka d. Barty
Odds
Decimal odds from oddschecker.com on 28 Jan 2021:
|
Naomi Osaka |
6.29 |
|
Aryna Sabalenka |
9.40 |
|
Ashleigh Barty |
9.95 |
|
Simona Halep |
11.05 |
|
Serena Williams |
11.99 |
|
Iga Swiatek |
13.38 |
|
Sofia Kenin |
14.29 |
|
Bianca Andreescu |
15.11 |
|
Victoria Azarenka |
16.47 |
|
Garbine Muguruza |
16.74 |
|
Karolina Pliskova |
18.42 |
|
Petra Kvitova |
19.00 |
|
Elina Svitolina |
22.79 |
|
Elena Rybakina |
28.68 |
|
Cori Gauff |
30.32 |
|
Jennifer Brady |
32.94 |
|
Maria Sakkari |
37.63 |
|
Elise Mertens |
47.89 |
|
Angelique Kerber |
48.58 |
|
Johanna Konta |
57.79 |
|
Belinda Bencic |
59.53 |
|
Veronika Kudermetova |
61.19 |
|
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
68.44 |
|
Anett Kontaveit |
69.00 |
|
Marta Kostyuk |
69.25 |
|
Marketa Vondrousova |
70.26 |
|
Danielle Collins |
70.53 |
|
Sloane Stephens |
71.58 |
|
Karolina Muchova |
72.86 |
|
Donna Vekic |
82.74 |
|
Ons Jabeur |
83.87 |
|
Tsvetana Pironkova |
96.71 |
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