2025 Yearend Men’s Tennis and 2026 Predictions

 

There’s no question that Sinner and Alcaraz dominated 2025. But what else happened during the year, and are there any players who can interrupt the duopoly?

 

Story of 2025

Jannik Sinner started the year with a bang by taking the Australian Open. But one of the shocks of the tournament came when Novak Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-finals.  Djokovic showed he could still beat the best. However the victory took too much out of him, and he ended up defaulting in the next round to Alexander Zverev after one set, pushing Zverev into the final.  Zverev lost in straight sets and came out saying that Sinner was just too good for him.  It seemed to demoralize Zverev and this run turned out to be the biggest result, points-wise, of his year. He did later claim a 500 title in Munich.  He was reasonably solid throughout the year and finishes third in the rankings. It’s hard to see him doing much better next year, but if he doesn’t maintain focus, the rest of the top 10 could cannibalize his ranking.  Take away his AO result and his ranking drops to #10.

In February at Buenos Aires we got a taste of things to come when Joao Fonseca took the 250 title at the age of just 18.  He started the year at #145 and finishes at #24, a huge jump. He typically won one or two matches at most tournaments he entered until Basel in October.  There he put together another run and claimed the 500 title.  The tennis world is holding its breath to see if he can continue improving in 2026.

The middle east 500’s in February were a throwback, with the title in Doha taken by Andrey Rublev, and the one in Dubai by Stefanos Tsitsipas.  These two were ranked #8 and #11 at the end of 2024, but fell to #16 and #34.  For Tsitsipas especially it feels like he might never recover. They are age 28 and 27, respectively, so there still may be time to climb back up the rankings, but I’m not counting on it.

Jack Draper jumped a level in 2025.  After making the final at the Doha 500, he did one better and closed the deal by taking the 1000 title in Indian Wells. Proving that his success was not limited to hard courts, Draper then made the final of the Madrid 1000 on clay. However he suffered an arm injury that began to slow him down.  He won three matches at each of his next three tournaments, but after a second round loss to Cilic at Wimbledon, he took a two month break till the US Open. After winning his first match there, he shut down his season. At time of writing he has already withdrawn from the 2026 Australian Open, so the injury is serious.  He did make it as high as #4 but finishes the year at #10 – not bad for missing half the year.

One of the most unexpected jumps of the year happened in March when then-19-year old Jakub Mensik won the Miami 1000. Impressively, he beat Djokovic in the final.  The rest of his year looked more like treading water, and he finished the year at #19. My guess is he’ll stay there for 2026 but may have stronger results across the board instead of just one stand-out result.

Holger Rune was runner-up at the 1000 in Indian Wells, but was fairly inconsistent throughout the year.  His highlight must have been beating Alcaraz in the Barcelona 500 final.  That catapulted him back into the top ten where he stayed much of the year.  He was #11 when he suffered a horrific Achilles tear that is taking him out of the sport for months. He finishes at #15.

Carlos Alcaraz had a slow start to the year, but claimed his first indoor title, in Rotterdam. In his next three tournaments he mustered only 6-3 win-loss. However he refound his footing once the clay season began, and made the finals of the next nine tournaments he played, putting to rest, hopefully, accusations of inconsistency from the commentariat.  He started with a title at the 1000 in Monte Carlo, and then lost the final in Barcelona.  He then took the Rome 1000 title, Sinner’s comeback tournament after three months away, and beat Sinner in the final, fairly convincingly.

Roland Garros may have been the highlight of the year.  The returning Sinner and defending champion Alcaraz, both moved irrevocably toward the final.  The clash that occurred there will rank among the greatest matches of all time. Sinner hadn’t lost a set all tournament, and took the first two sets of the final, the second in a tiebreak.  The first two sets included five breaks of serve and featured a dramatic comeback by Alcaraz in the second set, only to lose the tiebreaker.  The third set featured another five service breaks, and was won by Alcaraz 6-4, ending Sinner’s unbeaten set-streak at the tournament.  In the fourth round, the drama only intensified. Sinner broke at 3-all, held, and then went up 5-3, 40-0 on Alcaraz’ serve – triple championship point. But Alcaraz fought them all off and forced a tiebreaker which he won.

In the final set, Alcaraz broke early and reached 5-3, but Sinner rattled off the next three games to lead 6-5, creating incredible tension and drama.  Alcaraz then forced a super-tiebreak to decide the match which he won handily.  It was the longest French Open final in history and the second longest slam final ever, after the 2012 Australian Open men’s final.

It was an incredible win for Alcaraz, and a crushing defeat for Sinner.  Alcaraz then won the Queen’s Club tournament on grass and reached the Wimbledon final where he was two-time defending champion.  Miraculously Sinner recovered from the heart-breaking loss in Paris and took the Wimbledon title, leaving Alcaraz feeling over-whelmed in the final.

The two titans faced off again in the Cincinnati final, but Sinner was ill and defaulted when behind 0-5.  They then moved in lock-step toward another clash in the US Open final.  After claiming all their slams prior to this year without facing each other in the final, this year they met in three slam finals.  At the US Open it was Alcaraz who moved through the tournament without the loss of a set, and then won the first set of the final.  Sinner took the second set, but Carlos turned it up a notch and ran away with the final two sets 61 64.  It was a superlative performance, one of the highest levels Alcaraz produced all year, and it left Sinner scratching his head and vowing to rip apart his game to find improvements.

Alcaraz then won the Tokyo 500 but lost in his first match at the Paris 1000 indoors, to Cam Norrie.  He closed the year by turning in his best showing at the Tour Finals, a loss in the final to Sinner.   He won the most matches and titles for the year among all players.

	Wins	Losses	W-L Ratio	Titles	Finals
Alcaraz	71	9	7.89	8	11
JSinner	58	6	9.67	6	10
AZverev	57	25	2.28	1	4
Djokovic	39	11	3.55	2	3

 

Despite missing three months of the year, and Alcaraz’ lead in matches and titles, there was a mathematical chance Sinner could overtake the #1 ranking at the Tour Finals.  However Alcaraz’ result in the tournament was good enough to claim the top spot, despite Sinner’s undefeated march to the title.  Given his superlative form all year, the lead in the title count, and his 4-2 head-to-head with Sinner, having Alcaraz as yearend #1 feels like justice was served.  It is Alcaraz’ second yearend #1 and at the age of 22 it is feat matched in the Open Era (since 1968) by only Hewitt and Borg. Alcaraz is putting up numbers that compare him to the greatest players of all time.  How he performs in the coming years will determine how he places in that august company.

Casper Ruud finally won his first 1000 title, in Madrid.  His yearend ranking of #12 is his worst in five years, but to gain his biggest title, it may be a trade-off he’s willing to take.  He should flirt with the top ten again next year.

Novak Djokovic finally won another title, the 250 in Geneva, his first title since the Olympic gold last year.  It was title number 100 for Djokovic, joining an exclusive club.  He added #101 by year’s end, the 250 in Athens.

Open Era Tour Titles	Titles
Jimmy Connors	109
Roger Federer	103
Novak Djokovic	101
Ivan Lendl	94
Rafael Nadal	92
John McEnroe	77

 

Djokovic, at age 38, is in the twilight of his career.  His 24 slam titles are an all-time record.  However that record is shared with Margaret Court, and even though some of Court’s titles were won in the pre-Open era against very weak fields, Novak would dearly like to own the slam record alone.  So the quest for #25 is his final Grail.  I think he’ll need luck to pull it off.

Taylor Fritz claimed two titles this year, both on grass. He then proceeded to the Wimbledon semis, losing a very close four-setter to Alcaraz.  He did not match his runner-up showing at the US Open from the previous year, making the quarters. However his year was strong and he finished at #6.  He will be looking to move higher in 2026 and finally claim a first slam title, with his best chances likely at Wimbledon or the US Open.

Alexander Bublik has been known as a clown and an entertainer, but this year he seemed to finally become serious about his tennis.  He won four tour titles, behind only Alcaraz and Sinner.  Remarkably he won a title on all three surfaces, hard, grass, and clay.  His run started with a quarter-final run at the French Open. He then stunned Sinner on the way to his first title of the year in Halle. He finishes the year at #11, in what may be a career high ranking.

Alex De Minaur won a title at the 500 in Washington between Wimbledon and the US Open.  He also made two more slam quarter-finals this year.  He’s now made five, without ever getting to a slam semi.  He improved his ranking to yearend #7, up a couple spots from last year. Slightly under-powered, but incredibly fast, one wonders if he will be able to use speed and consistency to climb higher.

De Minaur’s final round victim in Washington was Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ADF). ADF made four finals in 2025 without winning any of them.  He’s now 0-5 at tour level in finals.  Hopefully he can turn it around in 2026. He finished the year at a career-high of #14.

Ben Shelton has made a name for himself with deep runs at the slams. He was fourth in match wins at slams this year, making the semis in Australia and quarters at Wimbledon.  He also stepped up to win his first 1000 title, in Canada.  Unfortunately, he had to retire in the third round of the US Open with a shoulder injury. He made it to #5 in the world, but couldn’t perform in the last few months of the season and finishes at #9.  The question for next year will be if he can fully recover from the injury and challenge at the top with his serve and athleticism.

The Shanghai 1000 in October turned out to be full of surprises when Alcaraz withdrew and Sinner lost his second match, to Tallon Griekspoor.  The draw was ridden with upsets, several of them at the hands of Valentin Vacherot. Vacherot was ranked just #204 and was an alternate for the qualifying draw.  Somehow he won nine matches in a row, taking out four seeds in the main draw, including top ten seeds Rune and Djokovic.  In the final he met his cousin Arthur Rinderknech – who was also having a career-best result.  It was utterly unexpected. Vacherot won the match, and then showed he wasn’t a flash in the pan by making the quarters at the 1000 in Paris, again beating three seeds. He could be seeded at the slams this year, finishing the year #31, and it will be interesting to see what he can do.

The following week, Felix Auger Aliassime won the 250 in Antwerp.  It was his third title of the year.  He then made the Paris 1000 final, losing to Sinner, and capped off his year with a run to the semis at the Tour Finals.  A solid year was enhanced with a run to the US Open semis, defeating Zverev, Rublev, and De Minaur in that tournament.  He surprised everyone by finishing the year at #5.

Daniil Medvedev had a substandard year by his measure, finishing outside of the top ten for the first time in seven years.  He finally broke a two-year title drought by claiming the 250 in Almaty.  His ranking dropped as low as #18 but had recovered to #13 by year’s end.  Will his decline continue or will he re-find form that can take him back to the top ten and challenging for the biggest trophies.  He won only a single slam match in 2025.

Jannik Sinner really came alive in the post-US Open swing.  After claiming the Aus Open, his year was marred by a three-month suspension from a failed doping test in early 2024. It appeared the contamination was unintentional, and despite strong supporting evidence Sinner opted to take the penalty to hasten resolution of the issue.  It’s hard to say what might have happened without missing that time, but remaining #1 for another year appears likely.  As it is, he finishes with the best win-loss rate for the year and the most prize money, edging Alcaraz.

Taking stock after the US Open, Sinner had won only two titles in 2025, both of them slams. However he found his best form in Fall, reeling off four tournament victories, including the Paris 1000 and the Tour Finals worth 1500 points; and finished the year on a 15-match win streak. He became the youngest player to reach all four slam finals and the final of the yearend championships in the same year.

Learner Tien made a splash by beating Medvedev at the Australian Open in a run to the fourth round.  He then beat Medvedev again at Beijing in October, before losing in the 500 final to Sinner. He took the 250 title in Metz, and went on to win the Next Gen Finals in December.

Lorenzo Musetti entered the top ten for the first time this year on the strength of three finals, although he did not win one.  He just squeaked into the Tour Finals when Djokovic withdrew, but won a match there over De Minaur, and finishes the year at world #8.

Flavio Cobolli had a banner year during which he reached a high of #17.  But his real heroics came in late November when he helped lift Italy (with assists from Matteo Berrettini) to a third consecutive Davis Cup title with two dramatic come-from-behind victories.

There were four new entries into the top ten during the year: Draper, Musetti, Shelton, and Tommy Paul. Paul got there after a quarter-final showing at the Aus Open, but got injured and shut down his year after the US Open, falling to #20.  Exiting the top ten this year were, in chronological order of their exit: Dimitrov, Tsitsipas, Paul, Medvedev, Rublev, Khachanov, Rune, and Ruud.  Hopefully some of these will return to this exalted order in 2026.

 

Predictions for 2026

Virtually everyone I follow is predicting another year of domination for Sinner and Alcaraz.  Based on his sterling end-of-year form, nearly all are projecting that Sinner will win 2-4 slams and finish as yearend #1.  However I am unconvinced.

With the new-found consistency he displayed in 2025, and his generally-agreed-upon higher ceiling than Sinner (see my article from last month), I think Alcaraz will shine brighter.  He’s 22 years-old now, which is when male players typically begin their peak.  Sinner is right in the middle of his peak, so the clashes should be intense.  It would be wonderful if they could meet head-to-head another 6 times or more, like they did in 2025, but I won’t count on that gift. 

Either one is capable of not only completing the career slam this year – Alcaraz at the Australian, Sinner at the French – but winning a calendar slam.  Obviously both can’t do that in the same year, so another year of slam-splitting probably lies ahead.  But I give the edge to Alcaraz, even though he has just ditched Juan Carlos Ferrero as a coach.  Alacaraz will need to find a new coach soon, but so great is his talent, that I doubt the uncertainty will slow him down much.  Sinner will be most favoured at the Australian where he is two-time defending champion, and Alcaraz at the French where he is also defending two titles. But every tournament is up for grabs between these two.

Djokovic has made some indication that he will play a fuller schedule in 2026 as he makes a final push for slam #25.  Whether or not he makes it, I expect it will be his final year.  Shelton and Fritz may be close to becoming first-time slam winners.  Zverev has the talent to cross that hurdle, but appears to be declining, at least in mental determination.

Here now, are my slam favourites.

2026 Charles AO prediction	2026 Bookies odds
1 J Sinner	1 J Sinner
2 Alcaraz	2 Alcaraz
3 Djokovic	3 Djokovic
4 Fritz	4 A Zverev
5 A Zverev	5 D Medvedev
6 De Minaur	6 Fritz
7 D Medvedev	7 J Draper
8 Shelton	8 Fonseca
9 Paul	9 De Minaur
10 Khachanov	10 Shelton
11 Auger Aliassime	11 Auger Aliassime
12 Musetti	12 Bublik

 

2026 Charles FO prediction	2026 Bookies odds
1 Alcaraz	1 J Sinner
2 J Sinner	2 Alcaraz
3 Djokovic	3 A Zverev
4 A Zverev	4 Djokovic
5 Musetti	5 J Draper
6 Ca Ruud	6 Musetti
7 Rune	7 Fonseca
8 Fritz	8 Fils
9 Bublik	9 Ca Ruud
10 Shelton	10 Mensik
11 Tsitsipas	11 Tsitsipas
12 Fonseca	12 D Medvedev

 

2026 Charles Wim prediction	2026 Bookies odds
1 J Sinner	1 Alcaraz
2 Alcaraz	2 J Sinner
3 Djokovic	3 Djokovic
4 Fritz	4 A Zverev
5 Shelton	5 J Draper
6 De Minaur	6 Fritz
7 A Zverev	7 Shelton
8 Paul	8 Mensik
9 D Medvedev	9 Fonseca
10 Rublev	10 D Medvedev
11 Musetti	11 Lehecka
12 Bublik	12 Berrettini

 

2026 Charles USO prediction	2026 Bookies odds
1 Alcaraz	1 J Sinner
2 J Sinner	2 Alcaraz
3 Djokovic	3 Djokovic
4 Fritz	4 A Zverev
5 Shelton	5 J Draper
6 A Zverev	6 Fritz
7 D Medvedev	7 Shelton
8 De Minaur	8 Fonseca
9 J Draper	9 D Medvedev
10 Khachanov	10 Mensik
11 Auger Aliassime	11 Auger Aliassime
12 Tien	12 Musetti

 

I’ve predicted Sinner to win the two faster-surfaced slams (AO and Wim) and Alcaraz to take the two on slower surfaces (RG and USO).

 

Rankings Predictions

At the end of 2024 I made predictions for 2025 – what I thought might happen during the year.  The top two were fairly obvious, but in what order?

2025 prediction	2025 Actual
1 J Sinner	2
2 Alcaraz	1
3 A Zverev	3
4 Fritz	6
5 D Medvedev	13
6 Djokovic	4
7 Rublev	16
8 Ca Ruud	12
9 Tsitsipas	34
10 De Minaur	7

 

Nine of my top ten were in the top 16, and I’m especially pleased with my top six. The biggest miss was Tsitsipas who fell precipitously.

Looking at the actual top ten for 2025, what predictions had I made for them?

2025 Actual	2025 prediction
1 Alcaraz	2
2 J Sinner	1
3 A Zverev	3
4 Djokovic	6
5 Auger Aliassime	24
6 Fritz	4
7 De Minaur	10
8 Musetti	23
9 Shelton	21
10 J Draper	12

 

I’m pleased that the entire top ten were at least in my predicted top 25, but getting three in the 20-25 range definitely means I have room for improvement.  I’m excited to see what these three can do next year:  Auger Aliassime, Shelton, and Draper.

 

Predictions for 2026

Putting it all together and thinking about what the tour outside of the slams might bring, here are my top ten predictions for 2026.

2026 prediction	Current Rank
1 J Sinner	2
2 Alcaraz	1
3 Djokovic	4
4 Fritz	6
5 A Zverev	3
6 Auger Aliassime	5
7 De Minaur	7
8 Shelton	9
9 J Draper	10
10 Musetti	8

 

Hang on a sec – didn’t I just say above that I thought Alcaraz would have the edge this year? So how is Sinner my predicted #1?  I’m trying to rationalize this to myself, and what I come up with is that I think Alcaraz will be able to soar higher in the biggest moments, but perhaps Sinner will be able to amass enough points at the smaller tournaments to finish #1.

Overall, this is probably the most conservative prediction I’ve ever made – simply rearranging slightly the current top ten.  An earlier version had Medvedev returning to the top ten, and Casper Ruud would certainly be a very good candidate to show up again.  I’d love to predict that teenage Fonseca would make an appearance there, but I think he’s got a little refining to do first.

My 11-20 predictions are: D Medvedev, Bublik, Ca Ruud, Fonseca, Khachanov, Paul, Vacherot, Rune, Fils, Tien.  This is where I’ve been a bit bolder, putting in newcomers Fonseca, Vacherot, Fils, and Tien.

For 21-30 I have: Rublev, Lehecka, Mensik, Davidovich Fokina, Dimitrov, Norrie, Tiafoe, Shapovalov, F Cerundolo, and Cobolli.  And in the highly speculative 31-40 spots: Griekspoor, Humbert, Machac, Berrettini, Sonego, Tsitsipas, Mpetshi Perricard, Popyrin, SKorda, and Hurkacz.

It’s all entirely uncertain, especially the deeper I go, and there will doubtless be some new names breaking into these groups, hopefully some hitherto unknown ones.

 

Final Thoughts

Once the dust had settled on Sinner’s three-month suspension, this year became an uncallable tug-of-war between the top two.  This makes for fascinating drama and I hope it continues. However, although I am a Sinner fan, I think Alcaraz will be more successful at claiming the top prizes, even as he searches for or begins with a new coach.  I expect the youngsters Fonseca, Fils, and Tien to move up the ranks.  I think Auger Aliassime will consolidate a position near the top.  I hope that Jack Draper can live up to his full potential and challenge seriously for the biggest prizes, but I’m little concerned with his physical durability.  It all starts in a week and I can’t wait to see what happens!