Roland Garros Women’s Preview 2026

 

It’s a tantalizing draw on the women’s side at the French Open this year.  There’s an upper shelf of favourites – a group from which the winner is likely to emerge, even if we don’t have a clear pick, like Jannik Sinner on the men’s side.  But there’s a distinct top tier of six, followed by a second tier about five to seven deep.

It’s kind of like parity, but it’s not the same as a few years ago, when women’s draws felt wide open and like anyone could win.   So let’s look at these six favourites – Sabalenka, Rybakina, Swiatek, Gauff, Svitolina, and Andreeva – and see where they’ve landed in the draw and how they might be challenged.

 

Top Quarter

Aryna Sabalenka is the top seed, and led my French Open power rankings for four iterations before being displaced yesterday by Gauff.  Sabalenka has been #1 for 83 consecutive weeks.  She hasn’t been invincible but she has clearly been the best.

The problem is she’s had a fairly mediocre clay season this year, going 4-2 (win-loss).  Last year she was 12-2 on clay with a 1000 title, heading into the French.  She’s suddenly started to look unconvincing – vulnerable.  Granted she’s still #1, but even that could be threatened if Rybakina wins this title.  In some regards Sabalenka is still the women to beat, she could probably be regarded as the favourite and will be until someone beats her.

Her draw is pretty good, at least until the semi-finals.  First round could be tough against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, but should serve as a good warm-up to get into tournament form.  Iva Jovic (17) or Naomi Osaka (16) might prove more of a challenge.

Jovic, only 18 years old, is one of the sensations of the year, making quarter-finals of the Australian Open and notching six match wins on clay this season.  It may not be her strongest surface, but she’s only improving and will be a thorn to any higher-ranked seed.

Osaka has had a fraught relationship with the French since her walk-out over press conference issues in 2021. She’s never been past the third round but clearly has the ball-striking prowess to batter on the red terre battue. She may have to duke it out with Jovic for the right to face Sabalenka in the fourth round.

Victoria Mboko (9) and Jessica Pegula (5) are in the bottom half of this quarter and are two of my second tier – players that would not completely surprise me with a victory in Paris, but are not among the favourites. Mboko is a bit of an unknown quantity on clay.

This year she opened with the final in Adelaide, then a respectable run to the fourth round (loss to Sabalenka) in Australia. Her next act was blasting to another 1000 final (this one a loss to Muchova in Doha), to go with her shock victory in the Canada 1000 last summer. 

She did make a respectable debut in Paris last spring with a decent third round showing.  She’s only improved vastly since then.  After missing most of this year’s clay with injury, she’s into the semis of Strasbourg this week with a new coach in tow, the highly respected Wim Fissette.  She could certainly pose an almighty danger to Sabalenka if they meet in the quarters.

But first she might have to face Pegula in the fourth round. Pegula is probably best on hard courts, but has made the second week in Paris twice before.  She’s having a somewhat average year, by her standards, racking up nine match victories on clay including the 500 title in Charleston.  She’s probably more of an upset threat to the top tier than a title contender at this tournament.

Sabalenka def Mboko

 

Second Quarter

Here we find the defending champion, Coco Gauff, seeded fourth.  Like Sabalenka she won’t be able to ease into the tournament with a gimme first-rounder, facing the redoubtable Taylor Townsend. 

The third round could bring up Anastasia Potapova (28) who has been on an absolute heater this clay season.  She was #97 a few weeks ago and had to play qualies (the qualifying draw) in both the Madrid and Rome 1000’s.  She managed to make the final in the Linz 500, the semis in Madrid and the fourth round in Rome, taking down two slam champions, and two slam finalists along the way.

Should Gauff survive Potapova (whose recent Austrian-ization has not dimmed her penchant for make-up and beauty accoutrements on-court), she could run into some stiff competition from the second tier in the bottom half of this quarter.  Gauff has been battling her serve and forehand for a few years now, but this spring she appears to be winning the battle. Those two sometimes-wayward shots are behaving and following her command.  She’s been finding her form and it suddenly all seemed to come together in Rome.  She made the final, like last year.  Is this an omen that she will also repeat her run at Roland Garros?

Lurking in the other half here are Amanda Anisimova (6) and Qinwen Zheng, the reigning Olympic champion who achieved gold on this site, but who is now unseeded.  Also worthy of mention, but not in my second tier) is Linda Noskova (12). Noskova has had a respectable clay season – quarters in Stuttgart and Madrid, fourth round in Rome.  She’s dangerous, but she’s in the ring with some fierce contenders.

Anisimova has had a nothing clay season. She last played in Miami.  She can never be counted out and her draw could allow her to play into form.  But she’s a bit of a momentum player and at the moment she has none.

The same could be said of Qinwen Zheng. She’s on the road back after a six-month injury lay-off last year.  She managed to put together three wins in Rome and Madrid, only losing to top-notch clay-courters Ostapenko and Rybakina.  It’s tough to know what to expect from Zheng. She did beat Swiatek on Court Philippe Chatrier here to claim the gold medal, and that fact looms large.

Gauff def QZheng

 

Third Quarter

Things start to get even more interesting here. Four of my top-tier six land in the bottom half, two in each quarter.  Iga Swiatek (3) has won four of the last six French Opens, and would normally be a shoo-in for a run to the final at this tournament.  But despite the Wimbledon title last year, she seems to have totally lost her way.  I think she’s trying to play too aggressively.  Instead of using shape and depth, as well as her speed, to weather the battering from other players, she seems to be trying to force the issue – to insist on being the prime-mover, demanding primogeniture – in a way that does not optimize her natural strengths. Like Nadal, Swiatek has the spin and footspeed to force other players into errors, if she can be patient.  She’s looked frantic since losing to Zheng in the Olympic final two years ago.

That first-strike tennis paid dividends at Wimbledon last year, but has been mostly ineffective elsewhere.  But there is good news.  She’s just made the semis in Rome, her first semi-final since last September.  New coach Francisco Roig and some time at the Nadal Academy seem to have reminded her of what her game can be with a little more thought.  Will she be able to avoid the temptation to panic, in Paris?

Her draw could hardly be more challenging. Long time nemesis Jelena Ostapenko (29), who owns her with a 6-0 record and won this tournament in 2017, lurks as a potential third-round opponent; followed by Madrid winner Marta Kostyuk, and then Rome winner Elina Svitolina.  All that just to get Swiatek into the semis and the right to face Rybakina or Andreeva, and then Sabalenka or Gauff in the final.  It looks like an almost impossible task.  Of course, if it were Swiatek from three years ago, I’d pencil her in as the likely champion, but these days, she’ll be lucky to make the quarters.  The big question: how real is her recent revival under Roig?  We will soon see.

Marta Kostyuk (15) won Madrid in spectacular style and is on an 11-match win streak.  Is she finally living up to the potential she showed when bursting onto the tour as a 15-year old, eight years ago?  The court in Paris is a little less high-bouncing than Madrid, but all eyes will be wondering how Kostyuk handles the pressure.

Belinda Bencic (11) has been having a really decent year, flirting with the top ten in her return from motherhood.  But she’s not at her best on clay and has not thriven at Roland Garros, never better than the third round here.

Another returning mother has re-invented herself.  Elina Svitolina is up to #7 in the rankings and #3 in the yearly race.  She’s just won her third title in Rome, demonstrating her clay prowess with victories over Gauff, Swiatek, and Rybakina.  With such an impressive resume, it is a shock to see that she may be the best clay player never to make the semis at the French.  She’s been in the quarters no less than five times.  Surely this will be the year, when apparently in top form, that she will rise even higher in Paris?

It would be a magical story.  Husband Gael Monfils, the local French favourite, is retiring this year; while Svitolina has phoenixed into a player with more power and initiative than her counter-punching past.  This may be the best version of her tennis, at age 31.  Now a fan favourite in Paris by association, enhanced by her disciplined stance on Ukrainian advocacy, her charming personality, and her re-imagined play, it would surely be a press-writer’s dream to find her in the final weekend.

Her draw is manageable until the quarters where she could face Swiatek, Kostyuk, or Ostapenko.  After that, I may favour her over whoever comes out of the bottom half.

Svitolina def Swiatek

 

Fourth Quarter

Elena Rybakina (2) may be having her best ever year.  And that’s saying something for the Wimbledon champion of 2022.  She started with a second slam title at the Australian Open, and has amassed 30 match wins, leading the tour.  She’s 9-2 on clay this year, taking the 500 title in Stuttgart.  Like Svitolina, it surprising that she’s never been past the quarters at Roland Garros, but it feels like an inevitability that she will overcome that hurdle.  The title is certainly within reach, even if clay may not seem her strongest surface.  She does after all have five titles on the stuff.

She could face Hailey Baptiste (26) or Krejcikova in the third round.  Baptiste put herself in the conversation with a stunning run to the semis of Madrid with victories over Paolini, Bencic, and Sabalenka three weeks ago.  It’s hard to know how repeatable that is, but she’ll have all the seeds on high alert if they should face her. 

She’s got a formidable opener against former champ, Barbora Krejcikova. Krejcikova is the typical mercurial Czech, as unpredictable as an earthquake.  Both her slam titles, here in 2021 and at Wimbledon in 2024 have come out of nowhere.  There’s little to suggest any danger from Krejcikova’s recent results, but only the unwary will take her for granted.

A year ago, Jasmine Paolini (13) was fresh off a victory in Rome and was the defending runner-up in Paris.  How times have changed.  She’s mustered only two clay match-wins this year. It would be foolish to look past her, but expectations from the gallery are low. 

Not so for Sorana Cirstea (18). Since announcing that this would be her last year, the 36-year old has been having the year of her life.  She’s reached a new career-high in the rankings, and posted a 10-3 record on clay. She did make the quarters at Roland Garros, way back in 2009, and who knows, she might do it again.  She would have to displace Rybakina to pull it off.

Former RG finalist, Karolina Muchova (10) is in the other half of this quarter.  She was having one of her best starts this year, until losing in the Stuttgart final.  She reappeared for one match in Rome, so it’s hard to know what to expect from her – typical Czech player… will it be the title or a first-round loss?

Mirra Andreeva (8) has just turned 19.  It bears remembering how young she still is.  She’s having a good year and did well in the clay lead-ups: quarters in Rome, semis in Stuttgart, and final in Madrid.  Roland Garros has been her best major, quarters and semis the last two years.  She’s probably a whisker lower than the other five in my top tier, but at the same time, a title run would not surprise.  Will she be able to challenge the in-form Rybakina and survive all the other threats from this quarter?

Andreeva def Rybakina

 

Semis and Final

Sabalenka is tough to pick against.  But she has not had an encouraging clay stint.  On the other hand, Gauff has been rounding into form.  If Sabalenka has made the semis, she will also have found her range.  I like Gauff’s new-found confidence and her clay game in general, while Sabalenka still looks a little uneasy on the surface.

A deep Svitolina run would be a dream come true.  Her recent form has been encouraging, but previous Rome titles have not manifested success in Paris.  Regardless, I like her play and the gains in her game.  Andreeva’s eventual success at this venue feels almost an inevitability… but perhaps not quite yet.

Gauff def Sabalanka

Svitolina def Andreeva

Final: Gauff def Svitolina

 

Odds

Bookies’ odds from bet365.com on 21 May 2026:

1	Sabalenka	3.25
2	Swiatek	3.6
3	Gauff	7.5
4	Rybakina	8.5
5	MAndreeva	10
6	Svitolina	15
7	Kostyuk	21
8	Pegula	41
9	Muchova	41
10	Mboko	41
11	QZheng	51
12	Anisimova	51
13	Osaka	51
14	Noskova	67
15	Potapova	81
16	Krejcikova	81
17	Keys	81
18	Jovic	81
19	Cirstea	81
20	Paolini	101
21	Bencic	101
22	Shnaider	126
23	Kasatkina	126
24	LFernandez	126
25	Samsonova	151
26	Ostapenko	151
27	Kalinina	151
28	Siniakova	201
29	Osorio	201
30	Navarro	201
31	Mertens	201
32	Li, Ann	201
33	Cristian	201
34	Baptiste	201