It’s
tempting to think a Sinner win is inevitable.
But he has looked vulnerable physically in long matches and hot
temperatures. And it also bears
remembering that he lost to Djokovic in Australia this year. But can anyone really push him? And who might they be?
Top Quarter
Carlos Alcaraz
is not playing and it really sucks. It’s
like Jannik Sinner is playing with no opponent. (Ok, ok, Djokovic, I
know…) And granted, Sinner did beat Alcaraz in the Monte Carlo final and got
back to #1 before Alcaraz got injured.
But would Sinner have pulled off this historic run of SIX 1000 titles in
a row if Alcaraz were still around? And
wouldn’t it be great if it felt like there were some jeopardy, some possible
impediment to Sinner completing the career slam and the career Masters 9000 (or
whatever it’s called) in the space of a month?
That said,
considering that Sinner won his first 1000 and first slam less than three years
ago – that he has somehow won absolutely everything, in such a short time, is
just unreal. Who is this cyborg? Is Sinner actually AI??
And it is
possible that he doesn’t win Paris. He
could get a cramp, or an injury, or Djokovic could do the impossible
again. It was here two years ago that Novak
straight-setted a then-seemingly-invincible Alcaraz to claim the Olympic gold –
the one (or one of the two for now) titles Sinner does not have. Plus Djokovic beat Sinner in Australia – the only
slam Sinner has won twice. So can he do
it again? You have to think Novak is
licking his chops at the prospect of a couple of Alcaraz-less slams coming his
way.
Martin
Landaluce has been
an interesting addition to this year’s menu.
He’s born in 2006, like Rafael Jodar and Joao Fonseca. He hasn’t been quite as riveting as his
vintage-mates – his game doesn’t look as electrifying or with as much
potential, but it’s hard to deny his results.
He’s gone from unknown to #53 in the yearly race in the space of a few
months. Quarters at the 1000’s in Miami and Rome are not to be sneezed at. The kid’s got game, and he may get a chance
to test it out against the very best in the third round.
Luciano
Darderi (14) made a
magical run to the Rome semis last week. Yes another Italian – like bamboo
shoots, they’re everywhere. He beat
Paul, Zverev, and Jodar in his run – not bad.
He’s got a title on clay this year, along with 17 clay match wins. That’s one more than Sinner. Who is this guy? Do they just grow tennis players on vines in
Italy?
The rest of
the quarter is a mystery to me. Alexander Bublik (9) and Frances Tiafoe
(19) were both in the quarters here last year, but would have to face off in
the third round. Tallon Griekspoor
(29) can be good on clay, but gets Matteo Arnaldi, who is refinding form,
in the first. The winner could get Stefanos
Tsitsipas in the second – the guy who was a finalist here in 2021, now
unseeded. And there’s Ben Shelton
(5). He made fourth round here last
year. Even if clay is not his best
surface, he somehow always seems to find his best at the slams. I have no idea.
Sinner
def Bublik/Tiafoe/Tsitsipas/Shelton (ok fine… Bublik)
Second Quarter
The big
news is that this quarter doesn’t house Djokovic. Which means that Djokovic will have lots of
time to find his best game. And to plan
a strategy. To condense all his remaining
anger and talent into one winner take all match. One match to get #25. One match to go beyond the completion of
tennis and rise, definitively above Margaret Court. One ring to rule them all!
Ok, less
melodrama…
So Felix Auger Aliassime is the top seed in this
quarter at #4. He’s hardly an unknown,
but seriously! Felix?? At the French… This quarter is an invitation.
Felix did make the fourth round here – twice. And his other four trips were… first round
losses.
The nearest seed is a possible third-rounder with Brandon
Nakashima (31), who has been ripping up the clay season with (checking Tennis
Abstract)… three wins on clay this year.
Ok, enough sarcasm…
I would love to pick Valentin Vacherot (16) to take
this quarter. His feel-good story took
off with the title at the 1000 in Shanghai last October where he got in as an
alternate in qualifying. One word: meteoric.
He’s followed up beautifully to get to this seeding, and made semis on
clay at the Monte Carlo 1000. But he’s
only played one match since then. If I
knew he were healthy I could predict a big run, but right now he’s a nothing-burger.
Cameron Norrie (20) has managed five match wins from
five clay tournaments this year. Nothing
too fancy. He did take Sinner to a 7-5
second set in Madrid. (I’m searching
here…)
Flavio Cobolli has worked his way into the 10th
seeded spot. Impressive! And ANOTHER Italian.
He’s mildly unpredictable. Will
it be clay victories over Medvedev and Zverev last month? or losing his most
recent two matches to Tirante and Buse? (No need to look those up, even they
don’t know who they are.)
Learner Tien (18) has been having a break-out year.
He’s been killing it on hard courts. And
just when I thought he was useless on clay, he’s gone and made the semis of Geneva
this week. So maybe there’s hope for him
at RG.
Francisco Cerundolo (25) is a wonderful clay player
who has been as high as #18. Like Felix
he’s made the fourth round here twice, and like Felix, all his other showings
in Paris are first round losses.
Gael Monfils is making his final appearance in Paris
and should get a lovely heart-warming send-off.
The last hope for this quarter is Daniil Medvedev
(6), Jedi Knight, “You’re my only hope.”
He’s been in the fourth round here three times, once winning through to
the quarters. His other six appearance
have been first round losses. Seems like
a theme for this quarter.
The good news: he appeared to be in good form in Rome. He
made the semis there and pushed Sinner to the absolute brink. He thrives on bringing the chaos, which is
exactly what Sinner’s orderly world does not like. It could get interesting if
they play a semi here. Of course Sinner
could polish him off in 13 minutes, but if Daniil can make it messy, it could
get interesting – and highly entertaining.
“Obi wan…”
Medvedev def Norrie
Third Quarter
By all
rights this quarter should end with a face-off between Casper Ruud (15) and
Djokovic. Ruud is a great clay-courter who
has been to two French Open finals. He
just made the finals in Rome, battling Sinner in two close-ish sets (kind-of).
He’s fifth in my French Open power rankings and fifth favourite of the
bookies. But, as fate would have it, he’s
landed close to Djokovic in the draw and so the two would have to play in the fourth
round.
That is if Novak
Djokovic (3) can even get that far. I mean, what will happen? Will it be a
first-round loss, like in Rome, or a 25th slam title? What Djokovic are we going to get? He’s become as predictable as a female Czech
player, (Krejcikova, Vondrousova, Kvitova, anyone?) So after winning nine straight matches to
start the year and blitzing Alcaraz in the first set of the Aus Open final,
Djokovic has gone two wins, two losses.
Does it
matter? He’s proven he can come from
nowhere to win slams? To recover from
getting knocked down by a metal water bottle and knee surgery to an Olympic
victory mere weeks later. He has no form. And his first match to Giovanni
Mpetshi Perricard – the monster-serving Frenchman, could be a cold-water
dunking. Joao Fonseca in the third? Ruud
or Paul in the fourth? He could crush
them all. Or falter.
I’ve got to
think the sheer magnitude of the opportunity afforded by Alcaraz’ absence will
motivate him.
Dino
Prizmic, who beat
Djokovic in his last match, could face Fonseca (28) in the third
round. Fonseca has been overshadowed by Jodar
and Landaluce this year, but let’s not forget how good he is. His time is still arriving.
Tommy
Paul is seeded 24,
made the quarters here last year, and could face Ruud in the third round.
The other
half of this quarter features Alex De Minaur (8), Jakub Mensik
(26), Andrey Rublev (11), and Thomas Martin Etcheverry (23). All are credible threats to make the quarter
final, and all but Mensik have been in the quarters here before. Of the lot, Rublev may have the best
combination of history and clay form this year.
Djokovic
def Rublev
Fourth Quarter
The
interesting names in this section for me are Jodar, Lehecka, Fils, and Zverev.
I was all
set to predict a semi-final run for Arthur Fils (17) this year. He tore
up the first part of the season after missing the Australian Open. Final in Doha, quarter in Indian Wells, semis
in Miami, title in Barcelona, semis in Madrid.
He got to #4 in my French Open power rankings. But then he retired injured in Rome. And this is Arthur Fils – not a stranger to
injury. We know the talent is
there. But will he be able to live up to
his potential?
Word out of
his camp is that the default was out of an abundance of caution and that he is
in fine playing condition. We can only
hope. The draw has not done him a
favour. He could face Zverev in the
fourth round. Punishing. And Fils could
also face Karen Khachanov (13) in the third. Playing Khachanov is like a
gauntlet. You can get through, but it’s
gonna hurt. Khachanov rarely underplays
in the slams. He’s not a threat for the
title, but he’s been to the second week of a slam 12 times, six of those at the
French, and six times he been in a slam quarter-final or better.
Jiri
Lehecka is the 12th
seed and made the quarters here last year.
He’s jumped a level in consistency this year and will be a tough out.
He could
get Rafael Jodar (27) in the fourth round. Or it could be Taylor Fritz
(7). Fritz has only played one match on
clay this season, so will have low expectations. On the other hand, Jodar is the name
on everyone’s lips. An unknown two months ago, he’s become the 6th
favourite of the bookies. Still just 19,
he’s mostly untested in the best-of-five format – his first slam resulted in
the second round of the Australian this year.
What we do know is that he has got serious game on clay.
He won the
250 title in Marrakech, made semis in Barcelona, and quarters at both 1000’s in
Madrid and Rome. In Madrid he beat de
Minaur and then played an electrifying three-setter against Fonseca to make a
claim as the best teenager alive, then pushed Sinner to a second set tiebreaker
in the quarters. Expectations of the
commentariat are probably inflated and unrealistic, but the draw has made a
trip to the fourth round or better reasonably probable. It would be great to see how he handles an
encounter with a top player like Zverev.
Alexander
Zverev (2) has been
consistently making semis or better in almost every tournament he’s played this
year. So I’m not reading too much into
his fourth round loss to Darderi in Rome.
I wouldn’t call his draw easy, but it’s far from impossible for a player
of his talent. Another appearance in the
final is possible, like in 2024, but his recent record against Sinner is not
encouraging. And first he could face
Djokovic in the semis. And although
Djokovic would see it as a severe challenge, he would also view a match against
Zverev as an opportunity.
Zverev
def Jodar
Semis and Final
Djokovic
has been a consistent theme throughout this article and I’ve mentioned him in every
quarter. This is a rare chance for him
to have a serious shot at a 25th slam title. Australia showed us he can still get it up to
beat Sinner. But Sinner will be on high
alert this time and will have analyzed that match to death, to find his best
counter-arguments. There’s a decent
chance Novak can get to the final, and maybe just as decent a chance that
Zverev or someone else will get there.
And if Sinner should falter somewhere along the way – then things could
get really interesting.
But as it
stands, it’s hard not to call this the Jannik Sinner Invitational.
Sinner
def Medvedev
Djokovic
def Zverev
Final: Sinner
def Djokovic
Odds
Bookies’
odds from bet365.com on 21 May 2026:
|
1 |
JSinner |
1.30 |
|
2 |
AZverev |
12 |
|
3 |
Djokovic |
15 |
|
4 |
Fils |
21 |
|
5 |
CaRuud |
23 |
|
6 |
Jodar |
26 |
|
7 |
DMedvedev |
41 |
|
8 |
Rublev |
51 |
|
9 |
Fonseca |
67 |
|
10 |
FCerundolo |
67 |
|
11 |
TPaul |
81 |
|
12 |
Lehecka |
81 |
|
13 |
DeMinaur |
81 |
|
14 |
Darderi |
81 |
|
15 |
Auger Aliassime |
81 |
|
16 |
Shelton |
101 |
|
17 |
Nakashima |
101 |
|
18 |
Mensik |
101 |
|
19 |
Cobolli |
101 |
|
20 |
Vacherot |
126 |
|
21 |
Shapovalov |
126 |
|
22 |
Navone |
126 |
|
23 |
Khachanov |
126 |
|
24 |
Davidovich Fokina |
151 |
|
25 |
Tien |
151 |
|
26 |
Tiafoe |
151 |
|
27 |
Prizmic |
151 |
|
28 |
Medjedovic |
151 |
|
29 |
Machac |
151 |
|
30 |
Landaluce |
151 |
|
31 |
Fritz |
151 |
|
32 |
Bublik |
151 |
|
33 |
Arnaldi |
151 |
Comments
Post a Comment