Wimbledon Women 2025

For a variety of reasons, none of the active players who have won this championship look like a real threat for the title.  So it seems a new champion is likely.  We’ve had surprises the last three years, will it happen again? Or will one of the favourites finally show her mettle on Wimbledon grass?

 

First Quarter

After the dust settled on last year’s tournament I noticed a weird stat: Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff all have identical match win-loss records at Wimbledon of 11-5.  It’s just an unlikely coincidence, but it does make picking between them tricky.  They are certainly among, if not THE, favourites for this tournament.

Of the three, I think Sabalenka’s record looks somehow the best, since she has been to two semi-finals on the hallowed grounds at SW19.  She’s the top seed this year, and despite ‘only’ being runner-up at both slam finals played so far this year, she is distancing herself from the field in the rankings.  She is the bookies’ favourite, too, some distance ahead of Rybakina and Gauff.  It’s hard not to like Sabalenka’s game.  She hits hard, controls the points, and has greatly improved her court coverage.  She is maybe not the most natural mover, and that is definitely a detriment on grass.  But everything else in her game is so solid, it’s hard not to like her as the favourite.

One of the four former champions in the draw is a potential third-round opponent, Marketa Vondrousova.  The other former champions are Barbora Krejcikova, Elena Rybakina, and Petra Kvitova who is set to retire this year.  The streaky Vondrousova is unseeded this year, despite a pedigree that includes two slam finals, an Olympic silver, and of course, the title here, two years ago.  Predicting Vondrousova is a nightmare, but she did just beat Sabalenka last week in Berlin, a title she went on to win.  She would seem to be in reasonable form.  So that means she’ll lose first round…??

Elina Svitolina (14), former semi-finalist is in this quarter, as is Donna Vekic (22), a semi-finalist last year.  Australian Open winner, Madison Keys (6) is also here. Keys has been to the second week here (fourth-round or better) five times, but has not yet managed to make a semi.  Her strokes look well-suited to the surface.

Sabalenka def Keys

 

Second Quarter

Last year’s runner-up Jasmine Paolini (4) heads this quarter.  I don’t expect a repeat of last year but her proficiency on grass is undeniable. Even without last year’s spectacular results she is seventh in this year’s race.

Amanda Anisimova (14) hasn’t played here since 2022 but did make the quarter-finals then.  Diana Shnaider (13) hasn’t had a slam break-through yet but at just 21 years old, continues to improve.

Ons Jabeur is a former two-time finalist here, but has struggled of late and is unseeded.  Can she find some of her old creativity and grass-court magic? She could meet Jelena Ostapenko (20) in the second round, a former French Open winner and three-time quarter-finalist (or better) at Wimbledon.

Four-time slam winner, Naomi Osaka is also unseeded and hasn’t been past the third round at Wimbledon.  The second highest seed in this quarter, Qinwen Zheng (5), has a forgettable 2-3 record on this grass, but might be due for a break-out.

Paolini def Ostapenko

 

Third Quarter

Jessica Pegula (3) has finally started to look like a serious contender at the pointy end of slams, making it to the US Open final last year.  She’s just off a title in Bad Homburg, defeating Swiatek in the final.

Also winning a grass title this year is Tatjana Maria, last week at Queen’s Club. Maria was semi-finalist here three years ago.  Belinda Bencic has been steadily coming back from motherhood this year, and has made the fourth round here three times.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (18) made the second week two years ago, and Karolina Muchova (15) is a two-time quarter-finalist. Emma Navarro (10) made the quarters last year. Alexandra Eala is making her debut this year, after a run to the final in Eastbourne last week, and a breakout victory in March over Swiatek that took her to the semis of the Miami 1000.  She’s slated to face last year’s champ, Barbora Krejcikova (17) in the first round.  Krejcikova has had an injury-plagued year and is in question to defend her title due to ongoing injury.

Mirra Andreeva (7) has had a break out year that saw her take back-to-back 1000 titles and rise into the top 10. She made fourth round in her debut here two years ago.

Pegula def Andreeva

 

Fourth Quarter

Iga Swiatek is seeded only 8^th year, after not defending five titles from spring 2024.  In fact she hasn’t won a title since the French Open of last year.  But her results this year are actually not bad and she is currently third in the yearend race.  She’s made the quarters here only once, but with a runner-up performance this week in Bad Homburg, her grass game could be improving.

She could have a telling fourth round encounter with Elena Rybakina (11), champion here from three years ago, and the second favourite of the bookies.  Rybakina has had a below-par year, for her, and is only eighth in the yearly race.  Still, her run to the title in 2022 will have no one under-estimating her and of all the former champs, she looks the most likely to repeat.

Maya Joint took the title in Eastbourne on grass this week, so this young Australian has made it onto the radar.

Sofia Kenin (28) has been in two slam finals, winning the 2020 Australian Open, but has fallen on harder times since then.  She’s been resurrecting somewhat in 2025, getting herself back to seeded positions.  She notably took out Coco Gauff in the first round at this tournament two years ago.  She could have a chance to do it again, this year in the third round.

Gauff (2) announced herself to the world at this tournament as a 15-year old in 2019 with a run to the fourth round.  She’s made it that far three times, but not farther.  Will this be the year?  She would seem to have the athleticism and the game to go far.  Her recent victory over Sabalenka in the Roland Garros final to claim her second slam title has got to have filled her with confidence. Nevertheless, if it should come down to another final round showdown here between #1 and #2, I would likely favour Sabalenka, because for reasons I can’t necessarily parse, Gauff struggles on grass.

Gauff def Swiatek

 

Semis and Final

Sabalenka def Paolini, Gauff def Pegula

Sabalenka def Gauff

 

Bookies

Odds from Bet365.com on 28 June 2025:

1	Sabalenka	3.75
2	Rybakina	6.5
3	Gauff	7.5
4	Swiatek	8
5	MAndreeva	15
6	Keys	17
7	Vondrousova	17
8	Pegula	19
9	Paolini	21
10	QZheng	23
11	Anisimova	29
12	Svitolina	41
13	Alexandrova	51
14	Jabeur	51
15	Navarro	51
16	Noskova	51
17	Muchova	67
18	Osaka	67
19	Badosa	81
20	Golubic	81
21	Joint	81
22	Ostapenko	81
23	Raducanu	81
24	Samsonova	81
25	Shnaider	81
26	Eala	101
27	LFernandez	101
28	Haddad Maia	101
29	Xinyu Wang	101
30	Krejcikova	126
31	Tauson	126
32	Vekic	126