Wimbledon Men 2025

 

Carlos Alcaraz is on a roll.  He’s won 18 straight matches AND the last two Wimbledons.  In the meantime, Jannik Sinner has established himself at #1. Between the two of them they have won the last  six slam tournaments.  Is a clash in the final inevitable? Or can Novak Djokovic or someone else disrupt the party?

 

First Quarter

Jannik Sinner is still the top seed but it seems increasingly that this year belongs to Carlos Alcaraz.  Sinner’s year was interrupted by a three-month ban, but he hit the ground running on his return, staging an epic final for the ages at Roland Garros with Alcaraz.  He held three match points in that encounter, after dominating the first half of the match. Although he fought valiantly to the end, that painful loss has got to leave some scar tissue.  Sinner has done well at Wimbledon, two quarter-finals and a semi – good but not spectacular.  Can he overcome the painful loss from three weeks ago to make his best effort during the fortnight? He’s jumped a level and a title run is certainly within reason.

Challenges from his quarter could come from Tommy Paul (seeded 13) who’s got a respectable 9-3 record at SW19, Ben Shelton (10), or Lorenzo Musetti (7).  Shelton looks like he has a game made for grass, and did make the fourth-round last year.  Musetti, normally thought of as a clay-courter, made the semis here last year.

Looking to the semis, Sinner could face challenges from Djokovic or Jack Draper.  Even making it to the final would be a huge accomplishment for Sinner, but taking down Alcaraz for the title would be a major statement. It’s not an easy road.

JSinner def Musetti

 

Second Quarter

Jack Draper (4) is the top seed in this section.  It has been a remarkable rise for him this year, starting at #15.   He’s British and should be good on grass, right? Right?? Actually he’s never been past the second round at Wimbledon.  But he is 18-8 on the surface. Which is not… terrible….  Not the most promising… Can he live up to that seeding? This year we have a whole new Draper, this should be the chance for him to establish himself as a force at Wimbledon, if indeed he is to be one.

He could get the very grass-proficient Alexander Bublik (28) in the third round. Bublik, a born comedian, will not cease to delight the crowd with under-arm serves, go for broke forehands, ill advised net approaches, and banter with the audience, his opponent, the umpire, or whoever might be within earshot.

Jakub Mensik (15) who won Indian Wells is here, as well as Alex de Minaur (11) a quarter-finalist last year.  But the name to watch out for is Novak Djokovic (6).

Djokovic is 7-time winner and 10-time finalist at Wimbledon.  He had a rough start to the year and rumours of his retirement have begun to swirl.  He narrowly lost to Sinner at the French Open, but should they meet again here, I’d expect Djokovic to have the edge.  His game and abilities seem better suited to grass, especially his body and footwork stability.  He’s shown he can match and over-match the brilliance of Alcaraz at the Olympics last year and the Australian this year.  But can he do it on grass – that surface that above all others, favours the shotmaker? With perhaps his only real surviving chance to reach a magnificent quarter century of major titles, he should be highly motivated.

Djokovic def Draper

 

Third Quarter

This is the wild quarter.  There’s talent here but not a clear favourite.  Alexander Zverev (3) is the top seed, but has never been past the fourth round at the big W.

Karen Khachanov (17) has, and is a threat at any slam he plays. Matteo Berrettini (32) was a finalist here four years ago. Taylor Fritz (5) has twice been to the quarters, and could run into flame-throwing young Canadian, Gabriel Diallo in the third round.

But although he’s struggled mightily this year and may have entered the downswing of his career, Daniil Medvedev (9) is still a force to be reckoned with.  He’s been in the semis the last two years, and despite his lanky awkwardness weirdly thrives on this SW19 grass.

Medvedev def Berrettini

 

Fourth Quarter

Holger Rune’s (8) best slam has been the French, but he’s made fourth-round and quarter-final here the last two years.  He’s the last man to beat Alcaraz, can he do it again, this time on grass?

Eighteen-year-old Joao Fonseca is clearly talented, but still a bit of a wildcard.  He could have an entertaining second-rounder with Jenson Brooksby or Tallon Griekspoor (31). The talented Brooksby is also a wild card, his only previous result here a third-rounder in 2022.

Jiri Lehecka (23) made the fourth-round in his most recent appearance here, and Frances Tiafoe (12) has been solid in seven previous appearances.  Andrey Rublev (14) has been a quarter-finalist.

But the gigantic force at the bottom of this quarter is Carlos Alcaraz (2). He had a slow start to the year, but since clay season dawned as been on an absolute tear.  Given his status as two-time defending champ, it’s hard to find any reason to believe he’s not the favourite.  Sinner or Djokovic can hopefully mount a credible challenge in the final, but honestly, I expect Carlos to win this, going away.

Alcaraz def Rune

Semis and Final

Djokovic def Sinner, Alcaraz def Medvedev

Alcaraz def Djokovic

 

Bookies

Odds from Bet365.com on 28 June 2025:

1	Alcaraz	2.05
2	JSinner	2.75
3	Djokovic	6.5
4	JDraper	15
5	AZverev	26
6	Bublik	34
7	Fritz	34
8	DMedvedev	34
9	Lehecka	51
10	DeMinaur	81
11	Mensik	81
12	Musetti	81
13	Rune	81
14	Berrettini	101
15	Shelton	101
16	Fonseca	126
17	Tsitsipas	151
18	Auger Aliassime	201
19	Humbert	201
20	Khachanov	201
21	Mpetshi Perricard	201
22	TPaul	201
23	Popyrin	201
24	Davidovich Fokina	251
25	Diallo	251
26	Dimitrov	251
27	Griekspoor	251
28	Mochizuki	251
29	Tiafoe	251
30	Michelsen	301
31	Rublev	301