Roland Garros Women – 2025 Preview

There’s not really a favourite for this tournament – which feels a bit weird, since Iga Swiatek has won it four of the last five years.  She’s also been #1 much of that time, but as of today is ranked only #5.  In her absence, Aryna Sabalenka has been entrenching herself at the top with multiple finals played this year, winning three of them.  The six clay tournaments since Miami have seen six different winners, so the answers are not clear cut.  Maybe Jasmine Paolini who won last week in Rome, in conditions very similar to Paris, should be regarded as the first horse.  She was indeed runner-up in the City of Lights last year.

 

Top Quarter

Aryna Sabalenka has been burning up the tour this year. The top seed has opened her lead at #1 to nearly 4000 points.  Other than wobbly performances in Doha and Dubai, she has been a factor in every tournament she’s played.  Impressively, she’s 11-2 on clay.  It’s hard not to regard her as the favourite.  Her two losses were to Jelena Ostapenko and Qinwen Zheng, both of whom are past winners at this venue.  The losses show Sabalenka is not invincible, yet she is still the most consistent performer this year by a long shot, on this or any surface. It will take a peaking player, or maybe a Swiatek with re-found confidence, to beat her.

She could meet the ever-feisty Danielle Collins in the third round.  Collins knocked Swiatek out of Rome, where Iga was 3-time champion, so should not be under-estimated.

Clara Tauson (seeded 22) is nearby in the draw.  She won in Auckland in January and made the finals of the 1000 in Dubai in March, beating Sabalenka along the way.  She’s come down a bit since then, but her big strokes are always dangerous. She could meet Amanda Anisimova (16) in the third round.  Anisimova is a former semi-finalist here, and she also won the 1000 in Doha this year.  But she too has cooled, going just 5-6 (wins-losses) since that title run.

Diana Shnaider (11) is still just 21 years old and is knocking loudly on the door of a first trip to the top ten.  Her section includes Peyton Stearns, the newly clay-loving American, who looked strong in a run to the Rome semis.

Also here is the other Rome semi-finalist, Qinwen Zheng.  Zheng is extremely dangerous on this surface, beating Iga Swiatek at this site during the Olympics last year on her way to a gold medal.  She also took Sabalenka out of Rome last week.  They could get a rematch if both make the quarters.  The venue seems to suit Zheng and I’m not sure who I’d pick if they actually play.  But Sabalenka has to be more trusted to go the distance, given her form this year.

Sabalenka def QZheng

 

Second Quarter

Iga Swiatek (5) lands here.  It could have been worse and she could have actually been drawn in Sabalenka’s quarter, but as it is, arguably the top two favourites could play in the semis.  That statement coasts on Swiatek’s reputation.  With four Roland Garros titles so far, this has been a happy hunting ground for her.  However, this year she has been dreadful.  Well not really dreadful.  Her 27 match wins  are third best actually, but in a time of year when she usually dominates, the middle-east and clay, she has exactly 0 titles.  Worst of all, her record on clay is just 6-3. Last year she entered Paris on a 12 match clay win-streak.  Whatever the problem is, it seems it’s all in her head.  For some reason her confidence is shattered, and when a match gets tight, she starts to panic, and hits a flurry of errors. 

She may recover from this.  But by my observation, a player often has to hit rock-bottom before recovering their mojo.  Crashing out early at RG might be the wake up call she needs to erase the past and start over.  Or she might will herself through this – but I’m not hopeful of that.  She could lose first round and I wouldn’t be surprised.  But such is her talent and pedigree on the surface, I’m hedging she’ll go deep before the tightness sets in.

Perennial nemesis, Jelena Ostapenko (21), champion here in 2017 is a potential fourth-rounder for Swiatek.  Ostapenko was in world-beating form when she seized the 500 in Stuttgart beating both Swiatek (for a 6^th straight time) and Sabalenka along the way.  For me, Ostapenko is a thrill to watch.  She goes for the line on virtually every shot, completely negating the need for an opponent.  She’s also convinced the automatic line-judging system is wrong most of the time, which makes for some amusing commentary from her lips.  If she wins, it seems like fate.

A possible third round opponent for Ostapenko is Elena Rybakina (12). Rybakina is an absolutely top notch player, a member of the once-purported ‘Big 3’ of the WTA with Sabalenka and Swiatek, a concept that never really got off the ground.  She’s been in two slam finals, winning Wimbledon in 2022, and has two big clay titles in Rome 2023 and Stuttgart 2024.  However, she’s had a rough few months, with rounds on the coaching carousel, and suspicions that her preferred coach governs her with a Svengali-like abusive relationship.  She is the odd combination of emotionally placid yet inconsistent in play.  What Rybakina will bring to this tournament is anyone’s guess, but Swiatek should be praying that Rybakina can take out Ostapenko before Iga has to face Jelena.

This loaded quarter has two other significant contenders for the title: Jasmine Paolini and Elina Svitolina (13). Svitolina, a former #3 has not reached the heights she achieved before motherhood, but is still a force to be reckoned with, especially on clay.  She’s won a bunch of titles on the surface, including the Rome 1000 twice.  She’s also been to the French Open quarterfinals four times.  Seeing her emerge from this quarter would not surprise.

Jasmine Paolini (4) is fresh from winning the 1000 in Rome.  Her other significant result on clay was finishing runner-up at the French last year.  Hard to say which accomplishment was bigger.  One thing she should not be is under-estimated.  She may be pint-sized but her strokes are huge and spinny, especially that forehand.

Which of these five strong contenders will emerge to the semi is a very tough call. But my money is on a repeat of last year’s final.

Swiatek def Paolini

 

Third Quarter

This quarter is no less difficult to predict than the last, but not for the same reasons.  This is the land of unproven talent. Well not totally unproven, but more or less so.

Mirra Andreeva (6) headlines the list. She won consecutive 1000 titles at Dubai and Indian Wells in Feb/March.  She was a semi-finalist at the French last year, so she is definitely on the short list of title contenders. However, at just 18 years old we’ve never seen her in this position as a favourite before, so this will be an interesting litmus test.

One of the most intriguing first-rounders is between Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa, former #1 against former #2.  Osaka owns four slam titles from a previous pre-kid life, but has never been past the third round at the French.  However, she did take Swiatek to match point here last year. Badosa has clawed her way back to #10 and has never been worse than third round here.  On current form I may take Osaka, but the outcome could depend on the health of Badosa’s perennially bad back.

A potential second-rounder could occur between Karolina Muchova (14) and Maria Sakkari.  Muchova was a finalist here two years ago and Sakkari was in the semis in 2021. And yet another second-rounder could occur between former slam finalists Ons Jabeur and Marketa Vondrousova, Wimbledon winner from two years ago.  All four of these players have the talent to nab this title, but none have been in great form.

The highest seed in this quarter is Jessica Pegula (3). Her record at the hard court slams is at least twice as good as at the French on dirt, but she did make the quarters two years ago.

Andreeva def Muchova

 

Fourth Quarter

Many of the best American players have landed here: Gauff, Keys, Navarro, and Kenin.  Sofia Kenin was runner-up at Roland Garros in 2020, but has mostly struggled since then.  She’s back into a seeded position at #31, and can be dangerous on her day. Let’s not forget she won the Australian in 2020.  No one will doubt her desire.

Madison Keys (7) finally fulfilled her potential when she seized the Australian Open this January.  She’s been to seven slam semi-finals (or better), including here at Roland Garros, so she’s a factor for the title. Since her 16-match win-streak bracketing the AO title ended, she’s only been 6-4 in matches.  It will be interesting to see if she can recapture the headspace that took her to the laurels down-under.

Emma Navarro (9) has been to at least the quarters of every slam except this one.  Perhaps there’s a reason. 

Maybe the American with the best shot at the title is Coco Gauff.  The number two seed was a finalist here in 2022.  After falling to a 1-11 record against Swiatek, Gauff has now won the last three matches in their head-to-head, including in Madrid on clay. Gauff’s year started with a 9-match win streak, before troughing until May.  She’s made two clay finals since, without, arguably, her best tennis.  Can she notch it up in Paris?

Also in this quarter are Beatriz Haddad Maia (23) a former semi-finalist, and Barbora Krejcikova (15), former winner here and reigning Wimbledon champion.  Krejcikova has missed the entire year so far due to injury, but played (and lost) her first match, this week in Strasbourg.

Gauff def Keys

 

Semi-finals

Sabalenka def Swiatek, Gauff def Andreeva

 

Final

Sabalenka def Gauff

 

Bookies Odds

Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 23 May 2025:

1	Sabalenka	3.4
2	Swiatek	4
3	MAndreeva	6
4	Gauff	6
5	Paolini	15
6	QZheng	19
7	Rybakina	29
8	Keys	34
9	Ostapenko	34
10	Svitolina	34
11	Muchova	51
12	Navarro	51
13	Osaka	51
14	Pegula	51
15	Shnaider	51
16	Collins	67
17	Badosa	81
18	Jabeur	81
19	Kasatkina	81
20	Tauson	81
21	Alexandrova	101
22	Kenin	101
23	Krejcikova	101
24	Noskova	101
25	Anisimova	126
26	Haddad Maia	126
27	Kostyuk	151
28	Raducanu	151
29	Vekic	151
30	VKudermetova	201
31	Mertens	201
32	Putintseva	201
33	Sakkari	201