Roland Garros Men – 2025 Preview

 

Will anyone beside the Top Two make the final of the French Open at Roland Garros this year? Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz look a class ahead of the field.  But with Sinner’s rust and Alcaraz’s occasional inconsistency, the door may open for others – Casper Ruud, Jack Draper, Alex Zverev, maybe even Novak Djokovic…

 

Top Quarter

Jannik Sinner has just returned to the tour after a probably-undeserved three-month suspension for doping. The locker room is visibly nervous about receiving a similar fate; they are on edge as the sword of Damocles hangs over all, seeming to strike randomly. A re-working of the doping protocols is probably in order.  Regardless, Sinner performed reasonably well in his first tournament back in Rome last week, making the final.  He will likely have some ups and downs, but playing best three of five sets in slams will likely give him time to find his game if he should start a match on the wrong foot. He was close to winning this tournament last year, taking Alcaraz to five sets in the semis.

Arthur Fils (14) and Andrey Rublev (17) are in his section.  They can both be top notch players.  Rublev has the uneasy distinction of holding the record for most slam quarter-finals – 10 – without ever advancing to a semi.  To get there this time, he may have to go through both Fils and Sinner. Fils is just 20 years old and in new ranking territory.  He has a lot of weapons and can be very dangerous.

Another young player is Jakub Mensik (19) whose seeding matches his age.  He made a splash by beating Djokovic to take the 1000 final in Miami.  He’s probably better on hard than clay, but we shall soon see.

Winning the 1000 in Indian Wells this year was Jack Draper (5), who nearly nabbed a top-four seeding at this slam.  His rise this year has been meteoric and he made the final in Madrid and quarters in Rome, too, both on clay.

Alex DeMinaur (9) is in this quarter – always a tough out, with five quarter-but-no-semi appearances in slams.  There’s a popcorn first-rounder between Hubert Hurkacz (17) and Joao Fonseca.  Hurkacz just lost the final in Geneva today, allowing Djokovic to reach 100 titles.  Fonseca is only 18 years old but already being touted as the next big thing.  His forehand is a revelation.

There’s a lot of land-mines for Sinner in this quarter, but given his general standard of excellence, it should be manageable.

Sinner def Draper

 

Second Quarter

Alexander Zverev (3) has had a frustrating year.  He got absolutely shellacked by Sinner in the Australian Open final, and came out saying he was simply not at Jannik’s level.  His confidence seems shattered.  He did limp to a 500 title in Munich but has mustered only a 5-3 (win-loss) record at the clay 1000’s this year.  However I do expect he will revive somewhat in the best-of-five format and Roland Garros is his best slam, site of 34 match wins.  He was within a set of the title last year.  He will have some stiff competition however.

Flavio Cobolli is a potential third round opponent, who has won two titles already this year.  In the fourth round, Zverev could meet Francisco Cerundolo (18) against whom he has lost three times to no wins. Cerundolo has made four semi-finals or better on clay this year.

Waiting in the quarters could be Daniil Medvedev (11) or Novak Djokovic (6). Both are former #1’s and slam titlists.  Medvedev hasn’t won a tournament since 2023 but is always dangerous.  Djokovic has been a bit of a puzzle this year.  He took Alcaraz out of the Australian Open in very impressive fashion, but in so doing, injured his thigh and had to withdraw in his next match, which happened to be against Zverev.  Novak will be out for revenge.  He’s just notched his 100^th tournament victory, in Geneva today.  His confidence will be rising.  He’s also just turned 38.  A healthy Novak could beat anyone and win this tournament.  That would take him to 25 slams, and leave him one clear of Margaret Court, with the all-time record to himself.  But at this age, his durability will always be questionable.  Best-of-five tennis can be brutal on the body, especially on clay.  Other than to Nadal, his last loss here was six years ago to Thiem.  It’s possible Novak could raise the trophy in two weeks, but I’d say the odds are better Sinner or Alcaraz will do it.

Djokovic def FCerundolo

 

Third Quarter

This is probably the softest quarter in the draw, not least because the top seed, Taylor Fritz (4), is not known for his clay prowess.  Fritz had his best result here last year, making the fourth round.  He’s got a decent draw however, that could facilitate a deep-ish run.  His side has only American seeds, who like him are better on hard courts.

The other section in this quarter features Holger Rune (10) and Lorenzo Musetti (8).  Rune has made the second week (fourth round or better) here every time he’s played, twice making the quarter-finals.  He’s been up and down this year, but did take the Barcelona 500 on clay, beating Alcaraz in the final, no mean feat.

Meanwhile Musetti has been a model of consistency making at least the semis in all three clay 1000’s, losing in three sets to Alcaraz in the Monte Carlo final.  His head-to-head against Rune is 0-2 but I like him to make the semi’s here.

Musetti def Fritz

 

Fourth Quarter

The bottom quarter is anchored by Carlos Alcaraz (2). After a faltering start to the year he has come alive during the clay swing, winning two 1000’s on the grit and amassing a 15-1 record since Miami.  He’s the defending champion at Roland Garros, but perhaps he looked most impressive in taking apart Sinner in the Rome final.  Jannik had two set-points in the first set but let them slip away.  Alcaraz needed no further invitation, stepped on the gas and entered blitz-mode, surrendering just one of the last eight games. It’s his fourth consecutive victory over Sinner.  Although Sinner’s average level is better than anyone else’s, Alcaraz seems to have a higher ceiling.  Plus he gets up for playing Sinner.  It stokes his competitive juices.  The surface is probably in his favour as well.  If he can avoid the dips he sometimes goes through and can actually get to a final against Sinner (or anyone), he will be the favourite. The bookies agree, giving him top billing.

Former finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas (20) is nearby, but has definitely lost the edge to his game that once made him a contender. Also here is Tommy Paul (12) who just made semis in Rome for the second straight year. He could have a fourth-rounder with Casper Ruud (7). Ruud looks like a title contender on paper.  He just took the Madrid 1000 title, and has twice been runner-up at the French.  But the way he got man-handled, love and one, by Sinner in the Rome semis, shows that he is a class below the Top Two.  Still, if the draw breaks his way, which it always seems to do in Paris, we could find him in the final weekend again.

Alcaraz def Ruud

 

Semi-finals

Sinner def Djokovic, Alcaraz def Musetti

 

Final

Alcaraz def Sinner

 

Bookies Odds

Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 23 May 2025:

1 Alcaraz 2.10 2 JSinner 2.87 3 Djokovic 13 4 AZverev 15 5 CaRuud 23 6 Musetti 23 7 JDraper 26 8 Tsitsipas 41 9 Rune 41 10 Fils 51 11 FCerundolo 51 12 Fonseca 67 13 DeMinaur 67 14 Rublev 81 15 TPaul 81 16 Mensik 81 17 DMedvedev 81 18 Fritz 81 19 Machac 101 20 Hurkacz 101 21 Khachanov 126 22 Davidovich Fokina 126 23 Auger Aliassime 126 24 Tiafoe 151 25 Popyrin 151 26 Lehecka 151 27 Dimitrov 151 28 Baez 201 29 Shelton 251 30 Navone 251 31 SKorda 251 32 Humbert 251