Wimbledon Men’s Preview 2026

Sinner, sinner, chicken dinner… as Andy Roddick likes to say.  Can he beat the heat??

 

First Quarter

In my online bracket I actually have Jannik Sinner beating an unseeded Ethan Quinn in the fourth round.  That tells you about how tough his draw is for the first few rounds.

Rafael Jodar (23)??  No grass record, but he sure looked good on clay.

Potential quarter-finalists to oppose the “Great Jannik” include Hubert Hurkacz, Tommy Paul (21), and Daniil Medvedev (8). Hurkacz was one a semi-finalist here, Paul a quarter-finalist, and Medvedev was twice in the semis.  But despite a resume that includes a US Open title and five other slam finals, Medvedev has not been finding his best self for a couple years now.  Meddy has a vicious opener in the shape of former finalist Marin Cilic.  Cilic is 37 years old, but that match could go either way… first round popcorn.

Sinner def Paul

 

Second Quarter

Felix Auger Aliassime is the number three seed.  None of that seems right.  I’m pleased for him, don’t get me wrong.  But yikes, what is the state of the game?  He’s never made a slam final or won a 1000 title. I guess he did make a quarter-final here once…  and a 7-6 record at Wimbledon…

Joao Fonseca (24) sure was a pleasant surprise at the French. The 19-year old made the quarters there and is living up to all the hype the tennis journalists are trying to restrain themselves from heaping on him.  He made third round in his debut here last year, so I’m super-curious to see if he can go further, or even a lot further this year.

Novak Djokovic (7) must be smacking his lips at this somewhat easy draw.  He certainly won’t be underestimating Fonseca in the fourth round since it was he who took out Djokovic at the French last month.  Novak knows how to play on grass.

Djokovic def Auger Aliassime

 

Third Quarter

The #4 seed is Ben Shelton – which is about as surprising as Felix at #3.  A few years ago Ben and Felix looked like the future of the game, and maybe they are showing us that they are.  But as long as Sinner and Alcaraz are around (Lord, please bring back Alcaraz…) they look a lot like the second tier… or third.

Shelton IS a talent.  He’s athletic and he’s got a monster serve.  Forehand is good, backhand not so much.  There are some holes.  But he concentrates well, usually, and he’s shown a proclivity for slam tennis, peaking at the majors.  Wimbledon should favour his game. He made the quarters last year.  And he’s got a big chance this year, Alcaraz is out, Sinner and Djokovic are in the other half.  Zverev sucks on grass.  This is the golden ticket. (…don’t screw it up Obi Wan…)

He’s seeded to face Ugo Humbert (27) in the third round.  Humbert loves grass.

Former finalist Matteo Berrettini is nearby and should survive a ‘classic’ match with Stan Wawrinka in the first round.  Arthur Fils (20) has been showing tremendous form this year and made the fourth round last year.  (Please be healthy Arthur!)  And in this tiny section of eight names we also have Grigor Dimitrov and Jakub Mensik (15).  Dimitrov is great on grass, a former semi-finalist and had Sinner on the ropes last year before tearing a pec.  Mensik showed last year’s Miami 1000 title over Djokovic was not a fluke by marching to the Roland Garros semis this year. This is a nasty hornet’s nest and the winner could face Shelton in the fourth round.

The other half of this section features Alex de Minaur (5) and Flavio Cobolli (9).  De Minaur thrives on this surface and is former quarter-finalist. He’s been solid if unspectacular this year.

Cobolli burst onto the world stage with a grin, by making the French Open final last month. He’s freshly into the top ten.  It’s tough to know if he’ll suffer a hangover from all the success in Paris, but he did make the quarter-final here last year, so we know he can play on grass.

Shelton def Cobolli

 

Fourth Quarter

Some guys just can’t catch a break.  And his name is Jack Draper.  Dude was rockin’ it last year, winning the Indian Wells 1000 and making it to #4 in the world.  Then he got injured, missed half a year.  Came back this year, injured again.  Loses his ranking and his seeding, and now he faces Taylor Fritz (6), one of the favourites, in the first round of his home tournament. Draper can actually play on grass, but through sheer bad luck has not been past the second round of Wimbledon.  And it’s not likely to change this year.

And if it does, it will be a bad break for Fritz.  Who’s also coming back from injury.  Fritz has been to the quarters three times, once going on to the semis.  He can play on grass and has been rounding nicely into form in the warm-up events.  He withdrew this week, but I’m thinking that was precautionary. Hoping it was…

Lorenzo Sonego in the third round won’t be easy – he’s been further than that before at Wimbledon.  And then there’s Frances Tiafoe (17).  Tiafoe seems to be playing with new-found commitment this year and won the title over Fritz last week in Halle.  Tiafoe also took out Cobolli and Auger Aliassime at that tournament.  So he’s a force not to be ignored.  But I’d favour Fritz’s long pedigree on this surface.  Tiafoe could have a tricky third rounder against the mercurial and hilarious Alexander Bublik (10). Bublik beat Sinner on grass last year.

In the other half of this quarter, closer to Zverev, are Francisco Cerundolo (18) and Jiri Lehecka (13).  Surprisingly the clay-loving Cerundolo won Queen’s last week on grass.  More versatile than I thought.  Lehecka is likewise able to thrive on a variety of surfaces and his clean strokes work well on grass.  He’s been having a break-through year.

The new French Open champ, Alexander Zverev (2) anchors this quarter.  He seems like an unpleasant guy who assaults his domestic partners so I always hope he loses.  He’s never been past the fourth round at Wimbledon, but unfortunately his draw is soft enough this year that he might go one better.

Fritz def Zverev

 

Semis and Final

If things go according to my plan, we’ll get Europeans in one semi and Americans in the other.  It would be a real surprise if the Americans go all the way, but between Paul, Tiafoe, Fritz, and Shelton, they have a decent chance.

Sinner def Djokovic (could be the match of the tournament!)
Shelton def Fritz

Final: Sinner def Shelton

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 26 June 2026:

1 JSinner 1.57 2 Djokovic 6.5 3 AZverev 10 4 Shelton 17 5 Fritz 21 6 Mensik 34 7 JDraper 34 8 DMedvedev 41 9 Auger Aliassime 41 10 Tiafoe 51 11 TPaul 51 12 Lehecka 51 13 Fonseca 51 14 Bublik 51 15 Berrettini 51 16 de Minaur 67 17 Cobolli 81 18 Khachanov 101 19 Hurkacz 101 20 Fils 101 21 FCerundolo 101 22 Rublev 126 23 Nakashima 126 24 Mpetshi Perricard 126 25 Jodar 126 26 Davidovich Fokina 126