French Open Preview 2017 - Men

French Open Preview 2017 – Men

Rafa is back! He is the clear and dominant favourite for the next slam title at Roland Garros.  Can anyone stop him?

Immediately after his Aus Open final appearance I began wondering aloud if Rafael Nadal would be ranked #1 by year’s end.  It appears that eventuality could happen as early as July, but it will depend on what Andy Murray does.  Murray has had a reasonably dreadful year – especially for a #1.  He’s won only about 2.3 matches for every 1 he’s lost – which is respectable – just not for a #1. 

Meanwhile Rafa just came off a 17 match win streak – all on clay – and has won three of the four big run-up tournaments to the French – Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, but fell in the Rome quarters to Thiem.  Rafa has won 3 of these tournaments and RG in the same year seven times in his career.  Will this be the eighth? 

The most serious challenger to Nadal might be 23 year-old Dominic Thiem.  Thiem made the Madrid final and pushed Nadal, getting closer to him each of the three times they’ve played on clay this year, culminating in a straights set victory over Rafa last week.  But will Thiem be able to maintain that level over best of five sets at Roland Garros instead of the best of three played at non-slam tournaments?  He’s #3 in the points race this year, a fair ways back of Nadal and Federer – but impressive nonetheless.

However, the best match record of this year, percentage-wise, belongs to Roger Federer who is 19-1 to Nadal’s 36-6.  Federer skipped the clay season, but has racked up 4 straight wins against Nadal.  Roger seems to have finally figured out how to hit his backhand effectively against Rafa.  I think he might be among the only players capable of beating Nadal on clay this year, but he’s not playing the French, increasing the odds of a 10^th Rafa title.

It was only a year ago that Novak Djokovic seemed to have Nadal’s number permanently, racking up 7 straight wins against the Spaniard, including 3 on clay.  But Novak has struggled mightily over the last 12 months, seemingly sated by last year’s completion of the career grand slam.  Even more impressively, Djokovic also completed a non-calendar year slam – a feat unprecedented since Rod Laver in 1969. 

But since then, he’s appeared lost, and only rejoined the top 10 in this year’s points race after last week’s finalist appearance in Rome.  There were positive signs in the clay season for Novak.  Although it’s possible Djokovic will be undone by an inconsistent performance some time before the final, taking on Andre Agassi as a coach might be the zen tonic that Novak needs to return to dominant form.  He doesn’t look strong now, but he might become a real contender as the tournament progresses.

Nadal should probably be more wary of Stan Wawrinka.  Wawrinka owns only one win over Rafa on clay, in Rome 2015 – not Nadal’s best year by a long shot – but Stan has the kind of game that can dust anyone when he’s on.  The question is, when will Stan be on?  He’s managed one French title in 12 appearances.  Will lightning strike twice?

There’s always the possibility that a young hotshot like Nick Kyrgios or just-crowned first time Masters 1000 champion Alexander Zverev (in Rome) will play out of his tree.  Zverev looked impressive in winning six matches to take the title, but it was not exactly a murderer’s row he faced, taking out Raonic and Isner in the quarters and semis before facing an off-form Djokovic in the final.  I’m not convinced he will pose a serious threat to Nadal, but you never know. 

Zverev is #4 in the yearly points race, just ahead of David Goffin, who has been surprisingly good this year, if still underpowered.  A few other unexpected faces are in the race top 10 like #8 Dimitrov, #9 Carreno Busta, and #10 Sock. They usurp some top 10 stalwarts like Murray, Nishikori, Raonic, Tsonga, Cilic, and Berdych.

All things considered, barring unlikely challenges from Wawrinka, Thiem, possibly Zverev, or a suddenly rejuvenated Djokovic, there appears little to stand in Rafa’s way this French Open.

First Quarter

Murray (seeded #1) should win his first match against Andrey Kuznetsov, but the way Murray has been playing it is far from guaranteed.  Juan Martin Del Potro (#29) could provide a stiff test in the third round (R3), but Del Potro has been injured and it is uncertain if he will even play.  The fourth round for Murray could bring up John Isner (21), Tomas Berdych (13), or maybe improving 21-year old Karen Khachanov.  The draw has been reasonably kind to Murray, but the result is far from certain.

In the lower half of this section AZverev (9) has a tough opener with former world #7 Fernando Verdasco (now ranked 37).  Should he survive, he could have a very difficult slog with clay court specialist Pablo Cuevas (22) in 3R.  Cuevas beat AZverev in Madrid two weeks ago.  And not to be forgotten is Kei Nishikori (8) as a potential 4R opponent.  Nishikori has been battling injury this spring, but that is not unusual for him.

AZverev d. Murray

Second Quarter

Wawrinka (3) started the year with a bang making semi-finals (SF) at the Australian and the finals of Indian Wells.  But he has looked mediocre ever since.  Recent form seems to matter little to Stan, and he has made QF or better in 11 of 14 of the last slams, winning three titles.  His draw doesn’t look too bad.  Fabio Fognini (28) and Frances Tiafoe could stage an interesting 1R clash, with the winner a possible 3R opponent for Stan.  Also nearby are Richard Gasquet (24) and Gael Monfils (15).

Kevin Anderson has been re-finding his game and could have a good battle with mercurial Nick Kyrgios (18) in 2R.  The potential winner could face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12) in the third.  Tsonga is into his first ATP clay final this week and is a former semi-finalist at the French.  It will likely come down to him and Wawrinka for the quarter.

Wawrinka d. Tsonga

Third Quarter

Although Benoit Paire can be a difficult opponent for most, on clay Rafael Nadal (4) should have no trouble mowing him down in 1R.  After that Gilles Simon (31), Roberto Bautista Agut (17), and Jack Sock (14) are unlikely to provide much resistance to the current king of clay’s quest for the quarter final.  Sock could have a tough first round tussle with Jiri Vesely who took Djokovic out of Monte Carlo last year.

The other QF slot is likely to go to Milos Raonic (5) or Pablo Carreno Busta (20).  PCB has been knocking it flat this year with 17 clay wins, including a title in Portugal.  He could face Grigor Dimitrov (11) in 3R who’s also been playing well this year, even if clay is not his best surface.

Nadal d. Raonic

Fourth Quarter

This is where it starts to get interesting.  If Thiem (6) can get over his dreadful one-and-love shellacking at the hands of Djokovic last week, he should find his feet in time to face Steve Johnson (25) in 3R.  Ever-consistent David Goffin (10) could provide a stern test in 4R, with the winner into the QF.

Djokovic (2) has an interesting first rounder against Marcel Granollers.  He should make it through to face another clay lover, Joao Sousa, in 2R.  Next up could be AZverev’s older brother Mischa Zverev (32).  The fourth round could match Novak against Albert Ramos-Vinolas (19) or Lucas Pouille (16) both of whom can be fairly deadly, especially on clay.  All that to make the QF and a chance to face likely Thiem or Goffin.

It’s a gauntlet, and if Djokovic survives, he’s likely to encounter Nadal at the end of it.  Novak’s confidence is the key variable in this quarter.  He looked dreadful at the start of the year, but has started to show signs of rejuvenation.  Coach Agassi might find just the right thing to say to get Nole back on track.  If not, there is plenty of opportunity in this tricky draw for Novak to go down.  I have a feeling he may find his way through.

If Novak plays Goffin in the QF, he may remember that their last match was a win for Goffin on clay in Monte Carlo.  But by all rights, Thiem, #3 in the yearly race, should be a more difficult opponent.  However, Djokovic has owned Thiem who has only mustered one set in their five encounters.  If Thiem can get over his Djoko-block he could become very dangerous in this draw.

Djokovic d. Thiem

Semi-finals

I didn’t think, coming in, that AZverev was really close to a very deep run, but he benefits from a favourable draw.  An in-form Wawrinka should take down AZverev, but what version of Wawrinka we get is always a guess.  For his part, AZverev is unproven in the backend of slams – he’s never been past 3R in, granted, only seven slams.  AZverev has been putting up ranking-to-age numbers that correlate with the great slam champions of the past – like McEnroe, Edberg, Sampras, and Federer.  A breakthrough on the slam stage seems inevitable – and soon.  But it’s a lot to expect from an unproven quantity.  Meanwhile, Wawrinka has a pretty plum draw, himself.

Wawrinka d. AZverev

If Thiem somehow finds his way through, fans will be salivating to see how Rafa handles the pressure of facing his most recent conqueror.  My money would be on Rafa.  But I’ve predicted Djokovic to come through to the semi, and if Novak can find his 2016 Roland Garros form, we could be in for a monster battle of titans in Nadal-Djokovic CI (that’s ‘51’ for the non-Roman numeral readers).  But Nadal spanked Djokovic in Madrid, and I expect he’ll do it again.

Nadal d. Djokovic

Final

If it actually comes down to Nadal vs Wawrinka, all bets are off.  Wawrinka has never lost a slam final in three attempts, and seems to bring his best game when it really counts.  On the other hand, Nadal has only two losses at this venue and a record-shattering 9 titles.  It seems highly likely he will be the first male to garner double digits at a slam and claim his 10^th.  This is actually still one short of the 11 claimed by Margaret Court at the Australian, but if you’ve been following the news this week, enough about her.

Nadal d. Wawrinka

Expert Picks

Seven of eight experts I follow pick Nadal for the title, with the lone dissenting vote cast for Djokovic.

Bookies Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 23 May 2015:

1	Nadal	1.8
2	Djokovic	4
3	Murray	10
4	Thiem	10
5	Wawrinka	13
6	AZverev	17
7	Nishikori	34
8	Kyrgios	34
9	Del Potro	51
10	Raonic	51
11	Goffin	51
12	Dimitrov	51
13	Monfils	67
14	Berdych	81
15	Tsonga	81
16	Ferrer	101
17	Pouille	101
18	Bautista Agut	101
19	Fognini	101
20	Ramos Vinolas	101
21	Gasquet	101
22	Cilic	126
23	Hyeon Chung	151
24	Simon	151
25	Sock	151
26	Cuevas	151
27	Isner	201
28	Kohlschreiber	201
29	Coric	201
30	Carreno Busta	201
31	Paire	201
32	Edmund	201
33	Verdasco	251
34	Gulbis	251
35	Berlocq	251
36	AnKuznetsov	251
37	DMedvedev	251
38	KAnderson	251
39	Kokkinakis	251
40	Evans	301
41	Bedene	301
42	Dzumhur	301
43	Zeballos	301
44	FLopez	301
45	Chardy	301
46	Almagro	301
47	Karlovic	301
48	Ruud	301
49	Kudryavtsev	501
50	Tsisipas	501
51	Khachanov	501
52	Monteiro	501
53	Tiafoe	501
54	Janowicz	501