French Open Preview 2017 - Women

French Open Preview 2017 – Women

Elina Svitolina, who just took the clay title in Rome last week, assessed the field for the French Open at Roland Garros this year and said, “There is no one I can name as a favourite.”  This sentiment is also evident from the bookies odds.  Their number 1 pick for victory is Simona Halep, who has never won a slam title before.  She’s rated at 4.33 (10:3) which are not strong odds.  By comparison Nadal is rated at 1.8 (4:5) on the men’s side.

The seven largest titles of the year so far – Aus Open, five 1000/900’s and Stuttgart – have been won by six different women.  They are Serena Williams, Elina Svitolina (twice), Elena Vesnina, Johanna Konta, Laura Siegemund, and Simona Halep.  Parity is ruling the tour this year.

Is this a bad thing?  Probably not.  It makes the WTA very interesting for fans, and also hard to predict.  And to make it even less predictable, some of the biggest names are missing from the roster of the French.  Serena Williams is pregnant and expecting around Sep 1.  Victoria Azarenka is a new mother and not returning to the tour for at least a month.  Maria Sharapova is recently returned from a drug suspension and has not yet garnered enough points to qualify for the tournament.  And several potential challengers (and former slam champs) have retired like Li Na, Flavia Pennetta, Marion Bartoli, and even Kim Clijsters.  And then there’s Petra Kvitova, whose name is still on the roster but from whom little should be expected given this is her first tournament back after a horrific home invasion and knife attack before Christmas that severely damaged her playing hand.

In short, the usual round-up of slam winners is not playing this French Open, so we are in the enviable position of being able to expect something new.  The only former champs in the draw are Francesca Schiavone, Garbine Muguruza, and Svetlana Kuznetsova, and two of them play each other in the first round.  Schiavone at age 36 is likely too old to mount a deep run for the title.  But the case of her first round opponent, Muguruza, is more puzzling.

Garbine made waves taking Serena out of RG 2014 and making the Wimbledon final in 2015.  But she really splashed by taking the title here last year.  Strangely it was her only final of 2016 and she hasn’t made another since.  She clearly thrives on clay and when she’s on, one wonders how she ever loses.  But she has looked rather vincible of late.  She did make the semis in Rome last week, before retiring with an injury.  She could rise up again this year, but there appears little to indicate that is likely. 

Svetlana Kuznetsova, on the other hand, is looking more like her old clay-loving self.  After spending the better part of six years in the top ten from 2004-2010, she sublimated into the 20’s of the rankings for six years before re-emerging as the yearend #9 for 2016.  She seems strongest on clay and claimed the title here in 2009.  Most importantly, she’s playing well again, and sits at #8 in the yearly points race.

Also playing well is Roland Garros runner-up from 2014, Simona Halep.  She defended her title in Madrid, looking stronger as the tournament progressed and withstood a fine challenge from Kristina Mladenovic in the final.  Halep also made the final in Rome.  She is deservedly the bookies’ favourite.  She possesses fine clay court skills, but is not big and strong enough to be truly dominant.  Although clay neutralizes power somewhat, she can still get hit off the court at times.  Nevertheless, she is the logical choice for favourite.

Kiki Mladenovic, for her part, has been ripping it up, enjoying a career year.  In addition to finalist showings in Madrid, Stuttgart, and Acapulco, she made semis in Indian Wells and took the title in St. Petersburg.  She’s #7 in the race and a maiden slam on home soil is actually thinkable.  Aside from Canadian transplant Mary Pierce in 2000, no French woman has won at Roland Garros since Francoise Durr in 1967, but that drought could end this year.

The top 4 in this year’s points race is rounded out by Karolina Pliskova at #2, Johanna Konta at #3, and Caroline Wozniacki at #4.  They will be worth watching after the clay season ends, but generally do not thrive on dirt, and are likely not serious threats for Paris.

#1 in the race belongs to Svitolina, already winner of four tournaments this year.  Only three other women have won as many as two tournaments this year:  Karolina Pliskova, Pavlyuchenkova, and Konta.  In addition to the Rome title last week, Svitolina made the quarters at the French two years ago.  She was going to be my dark horse pick, but with her gaudy Rome laurel, she is elevated to top five favourite status.

Other names that could be mentioned include Venus Williams, finalist here in 2002 and finalist at the Aus Open this year, and world #1 Angelique Kerber who has the odd good clay result.  And then there’s a long list of potential spoilers who might make a mark but are less likely to claim the title:  Keys, Siegemund (now out with injury), Suarez Navarro, Pavlyuchenkova, Vesnina, Lucic-Baroni, Sevastova, Vandeweghe, Strycova, Cibulkova, Ostapenko, Kasatkina, Safarova, Bertens, ARadwanska, Davis, Bacsinszky, Bouchard, Stosur, Makarova, Schiavone, Errani, Puig, and even Vondrousova.  I would love to wax eloquent about all of these but will spare the reader that fate.

To sum up then, my favourites in a wide-open field are Halep, Svitolina, Mladenovic, Kuznetsova, and begrudgingly, Muguruza.

First Quarter

Kerber (#1 seed) hasn’t won a tournament this year and could hardly ask for a tougher first round opponent than Ekaterina Makarova.  Makarova has made fourth round (4R) here twice before, and at least the quarters (QF) at every other slam.  The biggest threats in this quarter are probably 2010 finalist Samantha Stosur (#23), last year’s semi-finalist Kiki Bertens (18), and 2009 champ Kuznetsova (8).  19-year old Jelena Ostapenko could also make some noise and might face Kerber in 3R. It will be interesting to see what Kvitova (15) can do in her injury comeback.  I’ll take Kuzzie over Bertens by a hair in the 4R to face Stosur in the QF.

Kuznetsova d. Stosur

Second Quarter

Last year’s champ, Muguruza (4), could lose in 1R to Schiavone or win the tournament.  Her road is not easy.  She could face improving Kontaveit in 2R and feisty Putintseva (27) in 3R.  The fourth could bring up Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (22) who’s having a career year, or Mladenovic (13) who has been killing it on clay lately.

The lower half of this quarter is led by Dominika Cibulkova (6) who has looked mediocre all year and Venus Williams (10) who has been making some deep runs at age 36.  Venus could face 15-year old Amanda Anisimova in 2R – who’s only 40% Venus’ age.  The third round for Venus could bring up never to be under-estimated Daria Gavrilova (24).  Timea Bacsinszky (30) has been to at least QF here the last two years and is my pick to face Venus in 4R.

It’s a murderous quarter to pick.  If Muguruza is ‘on’ it’s hers to lose, but Mladenovic, Bacs, and hard-hitting Venus are tough to overlook.

Mladenovic d. VWilliams

Third Quarter

This quarter contains my top two pre-draw favourites, Halep (3) and Svitolina (5).  Svitolina has a very tricky opening against talented Shvedova in 1R.  Also nearby are Sevastova (17), Beck, Eugenie Bouchard, Barty, and Madison Keys (12), all of whom could go deep.  If Keys gets hot she could win the tournament, so vast is her talent.  But Svitolina has been the steady horse of 2017, so I pick her to reach the QF from this lot.

In Halep’s section, Daria Kasatkina (26), Suarez Navarro (21), and 17-year old Marketa Vondrousova are names that jump out at me.  Kasatkina took Charleston this year and Vondrousova won eight straight matches out of qualifying to claim the clay title in Biel.  Halep is recovering from an ankle injury in Rome last week, otherwise she would be a shoo-in for the QF.  If she does get that far, can she reverse last week’s loss to Svitolina?  With a healthy ankle, I would say yes. With a dicey ankle, who knows?

Halep d. Svitolina

Fourth Quarter

The last quarter has, to my mind, the most opportunity.  The top seeds here do not thrive on clay:  KaPliskova (2), Konta (7), and ARadwanska (9).  Only ARad has been past 2R here, but she’s been injured and hasn’t won a match since Miami in March.  If Konta finds her footing on the dirt she could become dangerous but might have to get by Caroline Garcia (28) in 3R and Barbora Strycova (20) in 4R.

Lauren Davis (25) could benefit if KaPliskova struggles and could face in 4R Coco Vandeweghe (19) or Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (16) – both of whom have had some spectacular results this year.

Overall, the only former Garros semi-finalist in this quarter is Lucie Safarova who is unseeded after a tepid year.  While the top seeds have the potential for deep runs, I’m going with APavs.

Pavlyuchenkova d. Strycova

Semi-finals

I’ll be honest, and say this feels like a crapshoot.  It wouldn’t surprise me if none of my four predicted semi-finalists made it this far.

Mladenovic d. Kuznetsova because Kiki’s been so consistent this year, especially on clay.

Halep d. Pavlyuchenkova.  APavs could blow Halep off the court but is less consistent.

Final

Halep’s ankle injury is a worry, as is her propensity to go out in the first round of slams.  Mladenovic has made four finals this year, taking only the smallest one.  She seems to have trouble getting across the big finish line.

Halep d. Mladenovic

Expert Picks

Of the 8 expert picks I follow, 3 were for Halep, and 1 each for Kuznetsova, Mladenovic, Muguruza, Svitolina, and Venus Williams.

Bookies Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 23 May 2015:

1	Halep	4.33
2	Svitolina	8
3	Muguruza	11
4	Kuznetsova	15
5	Kerber	17
6	KaPliskova	17
7	Mladenovic	17
8	Wozniacki	29
9	Siegemund	29
10	Kasatkina	29
11	Konta	29
12	VWilliams	34
13	Keys	34
14	Kvitova	41
15	ARadwanska	41
16	Bacsinszky	41
17	Bertens	41
18	Suarez Navarro	41
19	Kontaveit	41
20	Safarova	41
21	Stosur	51
22	Sevastova	51
23	Vandeweghe	51
24	Pavlyuchenkova	51
25	Bouchard	51
26	Cibulkova	51
27	Barthel	67
28	Gavrilova	67
29	Makarova	81
30	Stephens	81
31	Strycova	101
32	Ostapenko	101
33	Schiavone	101
34	Garcia	101
35	Vondrousova	101
36	Lucic-Baroni	101
37	Siniakova	101
38	Vinci	101
39	Konjuh	126
40	Begu	126
41	Vesnina	126
42	Cirstea	126
43	Puig	151
44	Errani	151
45	Jankovic	151
46	Bellis	151
47	Haddad Maia	151
48	Arruabarrena	201
49	Lisicki	201
50	Petkovic	201
51	Giorgi	201
52	Doi	201
53	Watson	201
54	Cornet	201
55	Babos	201
56	McHale	251
57	Vekic	251
58	Diyas	301
59	Beck	301
60	Flipkens	501
61	Van Uytvanck	501
62	Robson	501
63	Tsurenko	501