2015 Australian Open - Men's Draw

2015 Australian Open – Men’s Draw    

Sure Djokovic is the default favourite, but this draw feels very open to me, even more open than the women’s.  Djokovic has looked shaky this year.  Federer has looked good but aged.  Nadal is a huge injury question mark.  Murray still raises concerns about whether he has truly returned to form.  Can Wawrinka show that last year is repeatable?  Is Nishikori really the real deal?  Are Raonic and Dimitrov actually ready for slamhood?  Is it finally Berdych’s year?  There is so much uncertainty and no clear front-runner, so picking a winner is going to be very tough.

 

First Quarter

Djokovic (seeded 1) is a landslide favourite with the bookies at 1.9 odds (0.91:1 or 10/11), well ahead of his nearest competitors.  It seems hasty to me.  He looked strong in taking out Wawrinka convincingly in the exhibition in Abu Dhabi, but not quite so good in going down to ace-machine Ivo Karlovic last week.  Was it just a hiccup? or is Novak’s form off?

Bet365.com odds on 15 Jan 2015

Position	Player	Odds
1	Djokovic	1.9
2	Federer	6.5
3	Nadal	7.0
4	Murray	7.5
5	Wawrinka	13
6	Nishikori	15
7	Dimitrov	21
8	Raonic	34

Djokovic’s draw starts off without too much to frighten.  His third round seed is Fernando Verdasco (31) who is past his prime.  The fourth round could bring up John Isner (19) or Robert Bautista Agut (13).  RBA could have his hands full in the first against the big game of Dominic Thiem who narrowly misses a seeded spot.  Isner may struggle against the consistency of RBA, and regardless, neither should be too difficult for a somewhat in-form Djokovic.  But is Djokovic in form?  I’m thinking he will be good enough to get to the quarters at least. 

Then the questions being asked will get a lot tougher.  Milos Raonic (8) is a potential QF opponent and he has been in scintillating form this year, outplaying Federer for long stretches in their final round match in Brisbane, although ultimately unsuccessful against the great maestro.

There’s a dense little section near Raonic pitting Juan Martin Del Potro and former Wimbledon semi-finalist Jerzy Janowicz in the first round.  Delpo is just returning to form after missing most of last year.  He won two matches in a tune-up event.  Janowicz helped Poland win the Hopman Cup in early January.  It’s a very tough match to call but if Delpo can play near to his capability he should take it.

The winner would get the result of the Gael Monfils (17) and Lucas Pouille match.  Monfils is a former top-tenner with French SF in his history, along with 5 other slam QF showings.  Pouille is a young gun (age 20) who batted way over his head this week, making the SF in Auckland as a lucky loser (lost in qualifying but got a main draw spot due to a withdrawal by a higher player).  Just slightly I favour Monfils to come out of this section, roll over Feliciano Lopez (12) in R3, and face Raonic in the fourth.

I would not have said it before witnessing Raonic’s incredible play against Federer in Brisbane, but Milos has a reasonable chance to take down Djokovic, if Novak is shaky at all.  An in-form Djokovic should eke it out, but given the ups and downs Djo has been experiencing in the last two years, it should be a highly entertaining match.

Possible match-ups

1R	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF
		Djokovic (1)
		Verdasco (31)
		Isner (19)
Thiem
Bautista Agut (13)
		FLopez (12)
Del Potro
Janowicz
Pouille
Monfils (17)
		Benneteau (25)
		Raonic (8)

Djokovic d. Raonic

Second Quarter

Stan Wawrinka (4) appears to have little that could trip him up before the quarters.  Seeds Pablo Cuevas (27), Alexandr Dolgopolov (21), and Fabio Fognini (16) will likely not withstand his barrage.  Sam Querrey and Vasek Pospisil could stage a high quality first-rounder in Dolgopolov’s mini-section, and I’d favour the winner (probably Querrey) to get past both the Dog and Fognini.

The bottom portion of the quarter has some very big games, personified by David Ferrer (9) and Kei Nishikori (5).  Both of these baseliners are former slam finalists and capable of beating anyone on the planet.  Ferrer has a tricky opening against the mercurial Thomaz Bellucci, and the third could present the dangerous, wispy, marathon-endurance of Gilles Simon (18).

For his part, Nishikori will need to be cautious in 1R against returning Nicolas Almagro who missed most of last year but made QF in his last performance here in 2013.  Kei should pull through that and is unlikely to have much trouble with Santiago Giraldo (30) in 3R, or Steve Johnson who may be his most likely opponent there. 

The fireworks of a 4R clash between Ferrer and Nishikori are tantalizing.  Nishikori had appeared to be the form pony, taking out Ferrer in their last meeting in the ATP finals in November, but then he lost an admittedly extremely close three-setter to Raonic last week, while Ferrer went on to win Doha with a straight-set victory over Berdych.  Ferrer is the Terminator who keeps coming back when you think he’s done.  But based on his ascendant play over the last half year I give a slight edge to Nishikori.

So that pits Nishikori against Wawrinka.  The two had a gruelling 5-set match in the QF of the last US Open.  This whole murderous quarter is really tough to call.  Stan, as defending champion, obviously favours Australia.  Can lightning strike twice?  By a whisker I give the nod to Nishikori, but seeing Stan or Ferrer come out of this quarter would be no surprise.

Possible match-ups

1R	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF
		Wawrinka(4)
		Cuevas (27)
	Dolgopolov (21)
Querrey
Pospisil
		Fognini (16)
		Ferrer (9)
		Simon (18)
	Giraldo (30)
	SJohnson
Almagro
Nishikori (5)

Nishikori d. Wawrinka

Third Quarter

Tomas Berdych shouldn’t complain too much about his fortunes.  Leonardo Mayer (26) in 3R should be surmountable.  Philip Kohlschreiber (22) is terminally inconsistent and would likely not survive against Bernard Tomic, who has been floundering in his unique way.

The very talented albeit bizarre strokes of Ernests Gulbis (11) open against 18-year old Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis, who made 2R here last year (against Nadal) in his only other slam main draw appearance.  I’ll expect entertainment and ultimately a Gulbis victory.  Tomic and Gulbis should stage a highly watchable third rounder if both make it that far, but I’ll expect victory by Berdych for the QF slot.

However the looming presence of Rafael Nadal (2) entirely shifts the balance of this quarter.  It is anybody’s guess what to expect from Nadal.  He’s had struggles in the past and come back countless times, but never has he looked so wobbly in a comeback as now.  He was blitzed by Murray, gaining only 2 games in Abu Dhabi.  But then he beat Wawrinka, only to fall woefully to triple-digit ranked Michael Berrer… only to triumph in doubles.  It’s a lottery.

Youzhny in round one can be nettlesome but is past his prime.  More ominous perhaps is Lukas Rosol (28) in a potential third-rounder, who may have had the upset of the century in taking Nadal out of Wimbledon 2012.  After that he’s seeded to meet Richard Gasquet (24) or Kevin Anderson (14) who are certainly more accomplished but perhaps less frightening, and sport a combined 0 and 14 against Nadal.

It’s actually a very favourable draw for Nadal that should allow him to play into form on the way to a possible QF clash with Berdych.  On the other hand, with the loss to Berrer, Rafa showed that he can go down to anyone if he has on off day. 

The Berd is 3-18 vs Nadal with a woeful 17 consecutive losses dating to 2006.  I think Nadal ‘should’ win this quarter, but his form is too questionable to have any confidence he will actually do it.  If Rafa should face Berdych I’d pick Rafa, but against the field in this quarter I make Berdych the favourite.

Possible match-ups

1R	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF
		Berdych (7)
		LMayer (26)
	Kohlschreiber (22)
	Tomic
Kokkinakis
Gulbis (11)
		KAnderson (14)
		Gasquet (24)
		Rosol (28)
		Nadal (3)

Berdych d. Nadal

Fourth Quarter

Like the second quarter, the last has three very significant names in it:  Andy Murray (6), Grigor Dimitrov (10), and (cue Deathstar music) Roger Federer (2).  It would be extremely surprising if one of these did not emerge into the semis.

Sure David Goffin (20) had a fine run at the end of last year, Tommy Robredo (15) continues to surprise for his 32 years and Ivo Karlovic (23) is always going to be a tough out with that monster serve booming down from his 6’11” height, as he showed in taking out Djokovic last week.  But Karlovic may not even survive Nick Kyrgios in 2R if the youngster gives him a taste of his own medicine.

Analysing this quarter comes down to its three top seeds.  Dimitrov took out Murray on his home turf as defending champion at Wimbledon.  Granted Murray wasn’t fully recovered from back surgery, but is the recovery complete even now?  Not too much should be read into Murray’s thrashing of an oscillating Nadal two weeks ago.  But Dimitrov went out to Murray fairly meekly in October and did not look to have any answers for Federer in getting thrashed last week.  It could be incredibly tight, but I give a slight edge to Murray.

And then there’s Federer.  He defies age and is a credible threat for the Aus title this year, last hoisted by him in 2010 (same as Serena Williams).  He beat Murray in the final that year, and has finally turned around the losing record he had against Murray for so long, pushing to 12-11 with 3 consecutive victories last year.  Even with Murray on the upswing, Fed is the man.

Possible match-ups

1R	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF
		Murray (6)
		Klizan (32)
		Goffin (20)
		Dimitrov (10)
		Robredo (15)
	Kyrgios
	Karlovic (23)
		Chardy (29)
		Federer(2)

Federer d. Murray

Semis

Djokovic vs. Nishikori would be a redux of their US Open semi-final last year.  Nishikori looked reasonably convincing there in a 4-set victory, but then Djokovic looked fairly awesome in reversing the result in the ATP finals with a 6-0 in the third victory, and a straight set win at the Paris Indoors.  The head to head stands at 3-2 for Djokovic.  Novak should have time to play his way into form after the shock exit to Karlovic last week.  But I believe in Kei’s burgeoning potential and I predict another upset.

Another fascinating potential semi would be between Wawrinka and Djokovic.  It’s entirely conceivable given he leads Kei h2h 2-1, and it would not be a stretch to see Wawrinka with a chance to defend his title.

Nishikori d. Djokovic

Tomas Berdych has beaten Federer twice at slams and owns a not too shabby 6-12 against the possible GOAT (greatest of all time).  Given his recent form, it’s not too tough to predict a Federer win.  The difficulty of course is in considering that it may be Nadal, and not Berdych, across the net from Federer on semi-final day.  Given the (relatively for a GOAT) woeful record of Fed against Nadal, I would then predict Nadal for the final.  But with Rafa’s poor form of late, I don’t see him giving himself the chance to face Roger.

Federer d. Berdych

Final

It’s a little disconcerting to have arrived at this stage with neither Djokovic nor Nadal in my predictions as finalists.  In Federer vs. Nishikori, the head to head is led marginally by Roger 3-2.  I think a bad day by Roger is easily possible at this advanced age.  Moreover, older players seem more susceptible to mental lapses, to being too aware of the situation and succumbing to pressure.  Nishikori is young, powerful, adaptable, talented, and hungry.  I like Kei’s game, but I didn’t realize I liked it this much.

Nishikori d. Federer

Last Thoughts

There are a host of players who I believe could take this title:  Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, and Wawrinka are all former winners.  To their number I would add Murray, Nishikori, Raonic, and Dimitrov; nor would I discount Berdych and Ferrer.  I think Del Potro is probably not yet back far enough from injury to seriously contend, and Kyrgios is probably still too inexperienced.  So overall I see 10 potential champions, but with varying degrees of probability.  

Despite my predictions about the draw I think the top three are Djokovic, Nishikori, and Federer, in that order, especially when placing them ‘against the field’.  But Nadal, Wawrinka, and Raonic would not surprise if they emerged as champions.

Bet365.com odds on 15 Jan 2015:

Position	Player	Odds
1	Djokovic	1.9
2	Federer	6.5
3	Nadal	7.0
4	Murray	7.5
5	Wawrinka	13
6	Nishikori	15
7	Dimitrov	21
8	Raonic	34
9	Berdych	41
10	Del Potro	41
11	Kyrgios	67
12	Ferrer	67
13	Tomic	67
14	Monfils	81
15	Gulbis	101
16	Goffin	126
17	Janowicz	151
18	Isner	151
19	Gasquet	201
20	FLopez	251
21	Simon	251