ATP - Yearend 2014 and Forecasts

ATP – Yearend 2014 and Forecasts

Change is a-comin’.  The big 4 (or big 3?) is not dead yet, but there has been an undeniable reboot of the system. 

Before the 2014 US Open, the last time no Big-4 (Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray) member made a slam final was at the 2005 Australian.  That’s over 9.5 years – long enough!  Looking at spots held in grand slam finals by Big-4 members per year (maximum 8), the trend is unavoidable.  The halcyon days are over.  What will 2015 bring?

After a few years of relative stability, the top 10 have been infiltrated by the next tier.  Gone are the multi-year tenures of Tsonga, Gasquet, and Del Potro.  And teetering perhaps are Ferrer, Berdych, and Wawrinka.  The next wave has arrived.

Finally.

It’s only been forever... well seven years or so, since the exciting prospects of Djokovic and Murray, and then Del Potro, broke into our consciousness.  But that is an eternity in sports – even for patient tennis fans.

Is Marin Cilic going to keep winning big?  Are Dimitrov, Raonic, and Nishikori going to battle it out for #1?  And what should we make of youngsters like Kyrgios, Thiem, and Coric?

Marin Cilic

The US Open title is an incredible and amazing accomplishment for Marin.  His career has become noteworthy and enviable.  He is now a force to be reckoned with.

But Cilic is no youngster.  He just turned 26 in September, which is probably about half way through his career as a ranked tennis player.  Will he go back to being ranked 15ish in the world, territory he’s occupied for most of the last 6 years?  Or is he going to be a consistent threat at the top?

A let down is inevitable.  After that first slam win no one, since Jimmy Connors, continues to win big right away.  Sometimes the let down lasts for 6 months, sometimes a year, sometimes two, and sometimes we have to acknowledge that that acme of triumph was a player’s peak – the one slam wonder.

There is nothing lacking in Cilic’s game.  His forehand is a weapon, his backhand is solid and offensive, his net play is steady, his court positioning, especially recently, has been excellent.  I had often wondered why a man of 6’6” didn’t do more with his serve.  But with coach Goran Ivanisevic, his serve is no longer just good, but a serious weapon, and was perhaps the biggest factor in his victories over Federer and Nishikori for the US crown.

So yes, Cilic now has an awesome set of tools, will he believe that he can win with them?  ‘Belief’ is that unknown phantom of confidence.  Clearly Cilic had it for the US Open.  Will he continue to have it?  Has he been sated with victory at the highest level?  Or will he want more? 

Speaking of belief… I think Federer has more belief now than when he was winning everything in sight in the mid 2000’s.  He was so good then, he just sailed to victory, almost unbelieving himself.  Then Nadal came along, a stark contrast, filled with belief that he could battle anyone, and then it became obvious that Federer did not have that same belief, the tools to fight that mental ferocity. But I digress...

Cilic was not just a one tournament wonder.  He won 4 this year, third highest on the tour.

	Titles won 2015
Djokovic	7
Federer	5
Nadal	4
Cilic	4
Nishikori	4
Murray	3
Wawrinka	3
Dimitrov	3

Cilic has talked about how the USO win made his dream come true.  I’m inclined to believe him.  Those sound like the words of a man at his peak, with nowhere to go but down.  He may hold out more hope for Wimbledon, or the defense of his US crown, but if it doesn’t happen next year, I expect to see a slow fade from Cilic.  Perhaps he will linger in the top 10 for a few years.  He’s young enough that another rise to the top could happen in 4 or 5 years time, but I’m looking at next year as the barometer. 

No one winning his first title at his age or older has gone on to win multiple slam titles since Ilie Nastase, slightly older, won 2 in 1972-73.  Murray was slightly younger than Cilic when he first won, and has topped out at 2 majors.  So the precedents say the most likely outcome is no more slams.

But that doesn’t rule it out, and I expect to be ranking Cilic in my favourites for next Wimbledon and US Open.

Kei Nishikori

Okay, so Kei is good.  His near-Agassi like talent and hands can take him a very long way.  He should have some belief now, with a US final notched on his belt, as well as some hunger, since he missed the title. Does it look likely he will gain a Slam trophy? 

At age 25, Kei can hardly be called an up and comer.... although with the maturity in the men’s game, that’s exactly what he seems like.  I think Kei is part of a lost generation – maybe ‘flight’ is a better word – that was stillborn under the magnificent eclipse of the Big 4.  Kei and his ilk:  Cilic, Del Potro, Berdych, Tsonga, even Raonic, Dimitrov, and Janowicz, never stood a chance.

Well, they’re standing a better chance now, but the Big 3 (sure Murray was good, even amazing, but a notch below the rest) are not done yet.  The Big 3 are still at the top of the rankings, and still have some big titles left to claim, it would seem.  But now the window is not so tightly shut for everyone else.  Some air is getting in and everyone else is starting to take some deep breaths, charging their lungs with oxygen.

So just as the Sampras-Agassi hegemony suppressed the Ivanisevic-Krajicek-Rafter-Kafelnikov-Kuerten generation, today’s 20-somethings have suffered.  Eventually the wall will blow down completely and like the last Hewitt-Safin-Federer-Ferrero-Roddick wave that burst through, so will the next one.

Will it be in time for Kei et al? Or will we have to wait for Kyrgios, Thiem, Coric, (born 1993 or later) and/or other as yet unknown stars?

Part of the answer may depend on whether Kei can transform his early-Djokovic fragility into some later-Djokovic toughness.  Nick-named “The Glass Prince,” Nishikori has a litany of injuries in his young past.  Maybe it’s a chicken-or-egg thing, but it’s amazing how top stars manage to overcome injury – even when they are injury-prone like Nadal.  Will Kei will his way through?

Overall, I think his recent run has been a huge shot in the arm for Kei’s career.  He has suddenly leap-frogged Raonic and Dimitrov.  While I think Cilic may have a slight let down next year, I expect Nishikori to be even better next year than this.  I’ll be looking for deep runs from Kei at all the slams next year except perhaps Wimbledon – at least a SF somewhere, with a title possible.

Grigor Dimitrov

Federer was not a particularly early bloomer, and Dimitrov at 23 is well behind Federer’s pace of 4 slam titles by this age.  Nadal had 6 by now.  Dimitrov is behind even Murray’s timeline, who had been ranked yearend #4 three times and featured in two slam finals.  So let’s dial in some realistic expectations for Grigor.  A slam title would be an awesome accomplishment – a career moment – and a possibility for his talent level.  I think it would be unfair to expect more.  If he does it, we can celebrate with him.  He might even win two majors in his career.  And if he wins none that will be in the bounds of reasonable expectation, too.  He’s a huge talent, but give the guy a break, he’s trying his best.  Becoming a member of the 1 or 2 slam club along with Del Potro, Cilic, and maybe Nishikori is a worthy career goal.

For next year, I think a reasonable next step would be a slam final or maybe a 1000 title.  He’s clearly shown proclivity for grass, but he’s actually strong on all surfaces, so the site of a potential breakthrough is not limited.  If he did claim a slam title next year it would not surprise me, but I’m not expecting it.

Milos Raonic

Milos has established himself as a worthy member of the top 10 and the semi-final showing at Wimbledon looked, finally, like the fruition of his talent.  I think he’s getting the most out of his considerable skills.  The serve may be the best in the universe, ever!  The forehand is strong, the backhand is not.  His movement is likely going to stay on the awkward side.  I don’t see too much room for improvement and I’m expecting him to hang around the top 10 for next year.  At some point in his career he may bring home a 1000 title or even the Davis Cup.  Slam semis will always be a great accomplishment for him.  I hope to continue enjoying that serve for years to come.

Bernard Tomic

At 22, it’s not too late to turn the boat around, but a shipwreck is starting to look inevitable.

Nick Kyrgios

Kyrgios looks like the real deal.  At age 19 he’s ranked about 50, with room for improvement in his exuberant game.  Already 6’4” he booms the big serve, and more importantly, moves like a cat.  His movement looks balanced and explosive.  This Australian has got some good stuff between the ears, too, and showed the fortitude to take down Nadal in a QF showing at Wimbledon, as well as making the US Open third round.  All these qualities in a teenager are cause for great optimism about his ranking and title-winning potential.

For next year I’d expect him to make top 20 and starting banging on the door of the top 10.  A slam SF is within reason.  Long term potential is more difficult to gauge.  He certainly hasn’t eliminated himself from consideration as a future #1 and multi-slam winner.  But there are many hurdles to cross before that sort of talent is manifested.  Will he top out as a Lopez, or a Berdych, or a Murray, or a Federer?  For now I’d say top 10 looks likely, with top 5 a real possibility in the next few years.

Dominic Thiem

One of the unforeseen surprises of the year for me has been the ascendance of Dominic Thiem from a ranking near 200 at the end of 2013.  At age 21 the Austrian is a whisker younger than the Tomic-Dimitrov-Raonic cohort, but a little older than Kyrgios and Coric.  His time is now.  If he’s going to make a move upward and become a top player, it will happen in the next 2 years.  It’s hard to know if he’s ‘found his level’ in the 30’s of the rankings or if he’s going to keep moving up.

A fourth round showing at USO taking out #12 Gulbis and #21 Lopez is cause for optimism.  A sophomore flat spot next year is to be expected, but if he does have as yet unrealized ability, he may start to show his hand by late next year.  Rising into the 20’s and one deep run at a slam is as much as I would expect next year.

Borna Coric

The 18-year old Croat is the youngest player ranked in the top 100.  At 6’1” he’s already in the ideal height category for a top player and he may even grow a little – without getting too big.  He burst on the scene in April with a Davis Cup victory over then #21 Janowicz.  He then managed two top 50 wins, and made the second round of the US Open on his grand slam main draw debut, dusting off #27 Rosol in the process.  But he really made a splash in Basel, taking out #13 Gulbis and claiming the very big scalp of Nadal.  He showed remarkable poise and no real weaknesses.  He’s now ranked just above 100, but in this age of flinty men’s tennis, anyone coming to the fore at his age is noteworthy.

Getting into the top 50 should be the goal for next year, and a deep run or two at the slams would be icing on the cake.  The example of countryman Marin Cilic may spur him onto greater heights.  Coric is one I’ll be watching closely next year.  A slam SF would not surprise, but it is not particularly expected.

Alexander Zverev

At 17, the younger brother of German pro Mischa Zverev, Alexander is the youngest player in the top 200.  He made a huge splash at the 500 event in Hamburg taking out four top 100 players (one in the top 20) before losing to David Ferrer in the semis.  At 6’6” I expect that his height will probably prevent him from rising to the very top – Del Potro notwithstanding.  He may even grow taller.  A lot of future potential will depend on how good is his movement and hand-eye coordination, and not just on the sudden benefits of height.  He’s on my radar... somewhere on a back burner.

The Main Attraction

With the heady future of tennis dissected for now(!)... it’s time to consider some of the (other) major players on 2014’s stage.

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic has to be lauded for claiming his second Wimbledon title.  His other big titles in 2014 were the 1000’s in Indian Wells, Miami, Rome, Shanghai, and the yearend Championship in London.

He is yearend #1 again.  This is the third year.  Combine that with his 7 slam singles titles, and his name has to be considered with the greats of tennis history.  He’s in a select group of 8 men who have made yearend #1 three times in the open era.

Open Era (since 1968)	Years #1 (yearend)
Sampras	6
Federer	5
Borg	4
Connors	3
McEnroe	3
Lendl	3
Nadal	3
Djokovic	3

Expanding the list to pre-open players would expand it to 23 players:  Gonzales – 8 years; Tilden, W Renshaw – 7 years; Budge – 6 years; Laver, Kramer, HL Doherty – 5 years; Rosewall, Riggs, Vines – 4 years; Cochet, Larned, R Doherty, Pim, Baddeley – 3 years.

Novak has shown a consistency at the top which hasn’t always characterized top players.  He is currently running a consecutive streak of being ranked in the top 2 for nearly 200 weeks, fifth on the all time list and just a few weeks behind Nadal.

Consecutive weeks in top 2	Weeks
Federer	346
Connors	293
Lendl	280
Nadal	212
Djokovic	198
Sampras	173

But for all his consistency, it almost seems that Djokovic is a weak #1 this year.  He eked out the Wimbledon final over an aging Federer and did not have answers for Nadal at the French.  On hard at the Australian and US Opens, seemingly his best surface, he lost in the QF and SF respectively.  One wonders how much of his tenure at the top is dependent on Nadal not being healthy.  Nadal missed big chunks of 2012 and 2014 and that allowed Djokovic to hang on to #1.  In 2013 when Nadal was mostly healthy, Djokovic was relegated to #2.

Although Nadal is the biggest threat to Djokovic supremacy, let it not be forgotten that Novak still had to overcome Federer, Murray, Wawrinka, Cilic, Ferrer, and all other pretenders to the throne.

So what should we expect next year?  Believe it or not, Djokovic and Nadal are getting old.  They are 27 and 28 now and are on the descent career-wise.  The following graph shows the average ranking at yearend of all men who have won majors in the Open Era.  It is based on computer rankings.  I eliminated any ranking below 40 (for 6+ winners) and below 50 (1-5 winners), so that the graph would not be skewed by retiring or injured players.  Players must be born in 1952 or later to be included (Connors, Vilas are in, Newcombe is out).

What’s clear from this graph is that the peak for top players is at age 24.  This means that Djokovic and Nadal are now in the period when most players’ rankings are declining.  Especially after age 27, the decline starts to be more rapid.  Djokovic and Nadal will be 28 and 29 at the end of next year, so some slipping in their results, and possibly even their rankings, is to be expected.  It appears from watching him play, that Djokovic is not quite as sharp as he was 2 or so years ago.  Kudos to Nishikori for making the US final, but I thought it was a reflection on Djokovic as well.

It would be much more surprising if Novak did not win a major next year than if he does.  He’ll be among the top 2 contenders for every slam.  The French may be the most difficult for him because of the continued excellence of Nadal on clay, but he will be the favourite everywhere else.  I would expect Djokovic to produce one slam title in 2015, with two a possibility. 

The biggest threats for majors are a revitalized Nadal, or insurgence from the lower tier – the way Wawrinka and Cilic did in 2014.  I’d expect 2-3 more 1000 titles for Novak as well.  It would be surprising if Djokovic were not in the top 2 at the end of 2015.

Rafael Nadal

More and more it appears that Djokovic is #1 only when Rafa allows it.  2013 showed that Nadal was the dominant force in the game.  In 2014 he was #1 until Djokovic rose up and claimed Wimbledon, from which point Nadal was injured.  Nadal’s chief accomplishments for the year were Roland Garros and the 1000 in Madrid. 

But even in the healthy first part of his year, Nadal was clearly below his 2013 level.  He did not claim a title at Monte Carlo, Barcelona, or Rome – long strongholds of his, nor any on North American hardcourts (compared to four last year).  He will turn 29 in 2015 and some decline is to be expected.  That said, I still expect him to be the most ferocious competitor in the game and a threat at every venue he plays. 

I feel that if he can play through the year he should probably be #1.  At some point age will prevent this.  I think he has at least one good year left and probably another 2 French titles.  After that, surely, he will slip back to mortalhood on clay.  I doubt that he will win Wimbledon again, but another hard court slam is still a possibility I believe.

If my prognostications are right, that would tie him with Federer at 17 slam titles.  That fact alone may uber-motivate Nadal to win another and break the tie, but perhaps Federer will have moved on to 18 himself by then.  My long term expectation is that Nadal will finish with 16 or 17 majors, but I have been known to be very wrong.  For next year I’ll expect a #1 finish if he plays through the year, otherwise #2.

Roger Federer

He was perilously close to slam #18 this year.  He was in the Wimbledon final, in the fifth set, tied at 4-all.  But then he hiccupped and lost his serve.  Bye-bye.

But opportunity would strike again.  Two months later at the US Open, Nadal and Del Potro not playing, Murray ousted by Djokovic, Djokovic removed by Nishikori... into the semis is Roger with only Cilic and Nishikori standing in his way.  But not to be.  Cilic was just too good.

What these close calls tell us, after the unravelling that was 2013, is that Federer is still hungry.  It takes considerably more effort to marshal his many resources than it used to, but don’t count him out.  I’m not sure if he can win another major or not.  It may take some luck and faltering from the other top players, but it’s not impossible.  Wimbledon is probably his best shot, where the quicker surface favours his fast reflexes. 

However, I would not expect two more majors from the GOAT candidate.  If he gets one more, that will probably finish him.  With the Davis Cup now in hand, Roger has won every significant title except the Olympic Gold in singles – which maybe isn’t that big a deal in tennis, anyway.

For 2015 I’ll expect another three or so titles from Federer, and maybe another slam final.  If he gets that far, he’ll have an excellent chance of winning it.  He should maintain a top 5 ranking for 2015.

Stan Wawrinka

What a shocker the Australian Open was.  Even after taking down Djokovic, I did not give Stan much of a chance with Nadal to face in the finals.  But he came out blitzing Nadal.  Then when Nadal’s back started to act up, and Stan went off the boil and let Rafa back in with a set, Wawrinka turned up the heat again and closed out the match.  It was a career-performance and heralded a chink in the Big-3 hegemony that has only been widening.  There was a predictable post-slam letdown, but Wawrinka rose up again in spring and seized the Monte Carlo title, long a bastion of Nadal’s, when Nadal lost to Ferrer.

Since then, the results have been solid, but not particularly moving.  It’s looking increasingly unlikely that Stan might rise up again and claim a major title.  Of course, the Davis Cup title is not to be sneezed at but it’s not entirely an individual effort.  In 2015 I’d expect no more than a 1000 title from Wawrinka, and even that is probably less than 50-50.  At this point, Stan deserves to celebrate his magnificent 2014.

Andy Murray

Compared to last year’s splendid Wimbledon title, 2014 looks like a very tough year for Murray.  Most of it seems to have been spent in coming back from back surgery.  Although he unexpectedly made SF at the French, the rest of the year chalks as decidedly mediocre by Murray standards, at least until the slams were out of the way.  Suddenly Murray woke up and, after a 15 month drought, claimed three singles titles in quick succession to cap his year.  He also kept alive his streak of consecutive QF appearances in slams he’s played, now 6^th all time.

Consecutive QFs reached in slams played
Federer	36
Connors	27
Djokovic	22 active
Tilden	21
Crawford	17
Murray	15 active
Emerson	14
Lendl	14

So he’s not dead yet.  Will he have the gumption to make another slam run?  It’s looking increasingly like the other 3 of the big 4 have his number; that he doesn’t quite measure up to them.  Wimbledon is probably his best shot at major glory, he seems to thrive there, but it’s also where Federer and Djokovic thrive, so more titles there are going to require Herculean effort for Murray.

I have my doubts he will be able expend the mental energy to get there again.  His two slams have been the labour of a lifetime, but in today’s murderous competition, Murray will need a lot of breaks unless he’s willing to fight like his life depends on it, like for that first Wimbledon title.  I think it more likely that Murray will claim another 1000 title, after a two year drought, but even that will be a big ask amid the still toothy old sharks and the eager young ones.

Juan Martin Del Potro

It would be a mistake to ignore Delpo merely because of his recent absence.  Experience tells us that he may need the better part of a year to come back, but it must not be forgotten that he is a huge talent and still only 26 years old.  If he does manage to come back in 2015, I won’t be expecting too much.  Maybe an end of the year surge and then some better results in 2016, although a deep run at the US Open would not surprise.

Tomas Berdych

Tomas Berdych finishes his 5^th consecutive year at #6 or 7 on the computer.  I’m guessing this is level.  He becomes the 4^th man in the computer era to be ranked in the top 10 for a record 5 consecutive years without winning a slam.  Now age 29, I won’t be surprised by a slip out of the top 10 for 2015, although he did win more slam matches (15) in 2014 than in any other year (12 in 2010 and 2012).  He’s been in the quarters or better the last 4 years at the Australian, so perhaps his best result will be there again.  With 10 career titles in 11 years, one more trophy in 2015 would be par for the course.  I’m guessing he’ll just be able to hold off the upsurge from the youth brigade and eke out another top 10 position in a year’s time.

David Ferrer

David Ferrer turns 33 in April.  How much longer can he hang on to a top 10 position?  He definitely slipped in 2014 to #10 from #3 last year, can he halt the slide?  Like Berdych he notches 5 consecutive years in the computer yearend 10, with 6 years total (2007) – a record for a non-slam winner.  The highlight of his year was his only title, a third consecutive Buenos Aires trophy.  He lost 4 times in 2014 to Nishikori, who took over his perennial #5 slot.  His run of 10 consecutive slam QF or better performances came to an end at Wimbledon.  For 2015, one more title, and a slam QF is about what I would expect.

Others

David Goffin, rank 22, age 24, gave notice he is a force to be reckoned with by winning his first two 250 titles and 4 challenger titles, and then made a run to the 500 final in Basel notching wins over Raonic and a breaking-out Coric, before losing to Federer.  His run started in July, so by July 2015 his ranking could approach the top 10 if he keeps up the good form.

The talented French trio of Tsonga, Monfils, and Gasquet have all slipped a bit in recent years.  All have proven top 10 credentials, and perhaps the talent to win a slam.  It’s now or never as they reach the final stages of their 20’s (Tsonga turns 30 in April).  I’ll expect flashes of brilliance but will not hold my breath for the big breakthrough.

Ernests Gulbis, rank 13, age 26, had a scintillating opening half to the year with victories at Nice and Marseille, and semis at Barcelona and the French Open, including a win over Federer.  He’s now at the age where he should have the emotional maturity to fully realize his talent.  He may nip into the top 10 again at some point, but he has not shown the consistency to set up camp there.

2014 Rankings

In my rankings for the year, I follow the ATP rankings with one exception.  I raise Cilic to #6 for his US Open win. 

The ATP rankings see 3 new additions to the yearend top 10 this year:  Nishikori, Raonic, and Cilic.  Additionally, Grigor Dimitrov and Ernests Gulbis both made their first forays into the top 10 in 2014.  The bracketed numbers are last year’s ranking.

2015 Predictions – Top 10

In making my predictions for next year’s top 10, I wrestled in choosing between Nadal and Djokovic for #1.  Nadal has been the better player overall, and leads the head to head.  He will probably be reasonably fresh for the first half of the year, but showed signs of slipping on clay in 2014 and is always suspect in regard to injuries.  I expect less fade from Djokovic so give him the nod.

I also debated between Federer and Nishikori for #3.  I think Nishikori has finally found his legs and if the chips fall right (i.e. no injuries), with his immense talent he could actually push into #2 for 2015.  But Federer’s greater experience, proven track record, and sense of urgency have him edging out Kei, in my opinion.

At #5 Murray seems the next most able player and I expect him to improve on 2014.  He’d be higher if I thought he had more hunger.  The next 4 players were just about a wash in my estimation.  I think Dimitrov’s talent will continue to blossom.  Wawrinka should continue to play well, although I doubt he will have 2000 slam-winning points to bolster his ranking in 2015.  Berdych is holding tack.  Raonic may actually improve on last year, but faces some very stiff competition that can take advantage of his backhand.

The choice of the 10^th spot was the most difficult, and was as much a question of whom to leave off the list as whom to add on.  The 6-year tenure of perennially underestimated Ferrer would be a safe bet to continue – but age has him sliding.  Cilic, at age 26, might only have begun making his career statements.  Tsonga, with 14 wins over the Big 3, is hard to pass up, along with his talented countryman, Monfils whose game is, perhaps, finally maturing.  Ditto for Ernests Gulbis.  But in terms of past record and ball-striking ability, it’s hardest to overlook Del Potro.  He may not come back successfully from injury in 2015, but he certainly has the potential to, and climb even higher than #10.

Slam Predictions

When it comes to predicting the slams of 2015, the task is no easier.  At the Aus Open, Djokovic would seem the obvious favourite with 4 previous titles and the #1 ranking.  But it was Nadal in the final last year, and I expect him to be hungrier and fresher than Novak.  Nishikori will want to prove that runner up at USO '14 was no fluke, and on his best surface and at the slam closest to his home fans, his huge talent manifesting in a slam title would be no surprise.  And then there’s Federer who has been playing awfully well lately.  Wawrinka has played spectacularly at the last two Australians.  And let’s not forget Murray who has made 3 finals.  In the end I side with the bookies in giving the best odds to Djokovic.

It’s hard to pick against 9-time champion (5-time defending) Nadal at Roland Garros.  Novak has been close the last 4 years, and finally crossing the hurdle would hardly be startling.  But until I see someone other than Soderling actually beating Nadal at the French, Rafa is pretty close to the surest bet in sports.  I wouldn’t rule out a shock upset by the likes of Nishikori, Dimitrov, Wawrinka, or maybe even Coric, but I’m far from expecting it.  If it comes down to the final, it will be Nadal with nombre 10.

Wimbledon is a wee bit tougher to predict. Djokovic has two titles from three finals in the last four years.  Murray and Federer each have a win from two finals in the last three years.  (Plus the small matter of Roger’s 6 other Wimby titles.)  Nadal made 5 consecutive finals when he played, winning twice; although the disasters of his last 3 outings suggest more titles are not likely.  In addition to these likely suspects, last year’s semi-finalists, Raonic and Dimitrov, seem to have games well-made for grass.  Nor should grass adepts Tsonga, Del Potro, Cilic, and Kyrgios be passed over lightly.  Plus Nishikori who can play on anything, it seems.  All are believable winners, but Djokovic, Murray, and Federer hold sway to my mind.  I give Novak pre-eminence because of last year’s heroics.  Choosing between Murray and Federer is very difficult.  Murray has an excellent grass game and the home-court advantage.  But it’s super tough to choose against arguably the greatest player of all time on his favourite surface.

The US Open has produced 6 different champions in the last 7 years, Nadal being the only repeat performer in that time.  Like at the Australian, Djokovic would seem the obvious choice, except for his dismal record in finals at USO: 1 of 5.  Federer is always a threat, and Nishikori may well go one better than last year on a court surface/speed combination he seems to love.  As do Cilic and Murray.  If Kei were a little less physically fragile I would pick him, but in the absence of a clear favourite, Novak is the default pick.

Charles’ Slam Predictions

Here are the bookies’ odds from bet365.com on 16 Dec 2014.