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Women’s Tennis 2016 and a Look Ahead

Women’s Tennis 2016 and a Look Ahead
In 2016 two women each made three slam finals.  Not surprisingly, one was Serena Williams.  The other would have been about 10th on my list of guesses at the end of last year.  But undoubtedly, this year belongs to Angelique Kerber who made her first slam final at age 28 and won two of the sport’s greatest crowns.

Kerber bolted out of the blocks with a runnerup showing in Brisbane to Victoria Azarenka.  Angie then survived a match point in her first round against Misaki Doi at the Australian Open.  What might this year have looked like had she lost that single point?  Would she have made any slam finals?  But win it she did, and she then clawed her way to the title, taking out Serena in the final, 6-4 in the third set.  It ended a run of 8 slam finals that Serena won when playing for the title.

In February, the Premier 5 event in Doha was won by Carla Suarez Navarro over up and coming Jelena Ostapenko.  Sharapova shocked the world with the announcement she had tested positive for a banned substance, Meldonium.  She was eventually suspended for 15 months, set to return in April 2017. 

Azarenka swept the Indian Wells – Miami double and seemed well on her way to re-establishing herself at the top of the game.  She withdrew from a couple matches, but by early May, heading into Rome, she was sporting a 26-1 (win-loss) match record for the year and appeared a force to be reckoned with.  However she lost her first matches in both Rome and Paris and did not play again, announcing in July that she was pregnant.

Kerber defended the 470-point clay tune-up in Stuttgart and Serena won the 900 in Rome, but the Roland Garros crown was claimed by Garbine Muguruza over Serena in the final.  It was Serena’s second slam final loss of the year.  Before 2016, Serena had only ever lost 4 slam finals.

Serena finally righted the ship at Wimbledon, claiming the title over Kerber.  With Serena back on course, it was a shock when she went down to Elina Svitolina at the Olympics.  The surprises continued when unheralded Monica Puig won, claiming Puerto Rico’s first ever gold medal, with the silver going to Kerber.  It was becoming clear Kerber was making a statement this year.

In the meantime, Simona Halep captured the big titles in Madrid and Canada, and Karolina Pliskova claimed Cincinnati, from finalist-yet-again, Kerber.  Pliskova was just warming up, however, and shocked the establishment by taking Serena out of the US Open semi-finals to face Kerber in the final.  Up a break in the third set of the final, it appeared the ingénue would claim her maiden slam title, but Kerber hung tough and claimed her second of the year instead.  Kerber wrested the #1 ranking from Serena after the US Open, ending 241 weeks without a new #1, the longest gap since Graf reached the pinnacle in 1987.

In the end of year swing, Petra Kvitova finally woke from hibernation and halted her slide down the rankings, capturing the Premier 5 title in Wuhan at the expense of Dominika Cibulkova, who had also featured in the Madrid final.  Agnieszka Radwanska lifted the 1000 trophy in Beijing over Johanna Konta.  Konta had announced her presence at the SF of the Australian in January, and output a solid year, that saw her rising out of a triple digit ranking 15 months earlier all the way to the top 10 after Beijing.

At the WTA Finals in Singapore, Kerber again made a big tournament final, but lost to Dominika Cibulkova.  Domi claimed her fourth title of the year, most on tour, and rose to #5 in the world.  Kerber made 5 of the 6 biggest finals of the year.

Analysis

The best results package for 2016 clearly belongs to Kerber who won two slam titles, was in the final of a third, made the finals of the Olympics, the WTA Finals, and Cincinnati, and captured Stuttgart.  However there was not a dominant leader in titles won for the year, with four being the most any one player took.


Titles Won 2016
Point Value
Cibulkova
4
2680*
Kerber
3
4470
Azarenka
3
2470
Halep
3
2180
ARadwanska
3
1750
Stephens
3
1030
SWilliams
2
2900
KaPliskova
2
1180
Kuznetsova
2
940
Wozniacki
2
750
Garcia
2
560
* WTA Finals valued at 1500 regardless of actual points gained

Looking at career titles won among active players, it may seem surprising that Caroline Wozniacki still leads the circa 1990-born pack, considering that her ranking dropped into the 70’s this year.

Active Players
Career Titles Won
SWilliams
71
VWilliams
49
Sharapova
35
Wozniacki
25
ARadwanska
20
Azarenka
20
Kvitova
19
Kuznetosva
17
Ivanovic
15
Jankovic
15
Halep
14
Kerber
10
Vinci
10
 
Serena only played 8 tournaments in 2016, and lost 6 times, which is double last year’s number of total losses.  She won 38 matches, which still makes for a very good winning percentage.  But the honour for most match wins during the year belongs to Kerber.

2016 results
Match wins
Match losses
Win ratio (to losses)
Kerber
63
18
3.50
ARadwanska
53
18
2.94
Cibulkova
53
21
2.52
Keys
47
17
2.76
Konta
46
22
2.09
Kvitova
46
23
2.00
Halep
45
18
2.50
Kuznetsova
45
22
2.05
KaPliskova
44
23
1.91
Svitolina
41
22
1.86
Suarez Navarro
39
21
1.86
SWilliams
38
6
6.33

Kerber may have gotten the better of Serena this year, but Serena’s much superior win ratio tells me that Serena is still the best player in the game.  It is probably fair to favour Serena at every tournament she plays.  With her Wimbledon victory, Serena now has 22 slam singles titles, tied with Graf for second on the all-time list behind Margaret Court with 24.  The experience of this year tells me that one slam title next year is likely reasonable, with two or more a possibility.  On Kerber’s side I feel it is about 60-40 if she will claim another slam in 2017, although she may hang on to the #1 ranking for some time.

Garbine Muguruza showed signs of promise last year when she made the Wimbledon final, but really delivered by taking the French title this year.  However, it was her only title for the year and she manages only #7 in the yearend WTA rankings.  She’s 23 years old so should be hitting the real stride of her career in the next 3 to 5 years.  A small sophomore slump after a maiden slam title is not unexpected but the question remains if she will turn into a dominating multi-slam winning #1 or follow a path more like Kvitova and Kuznetsova who claim the odd slam title at unpredictable intervals.  It may depend on when Serena and Sharapova retire.

It appears that Sharapova was definitely using Meldonium, and likely, as a performance enhancer.  As long as that was legal, it cannot be called wrong.  However she exceeded the grace period and a punishment was enforced.  This is probably a good sign for tennis, since one of its highest profile stars did not get away with rule-breaking. 

Maria will be 30 years old when she returns, which is nearing the best-before date for the major-winning aspirations of most top players.  However, the long absence will probably have whetted her appetite for victory and she will likely have been straining against the traces to see Serena struggling in 2016.  Will the same opportunities be available in 2017?  If her training has gone well, she may need little time to reinsert herself into the top of the game.  She has been the de facto #2 for most of the last five years, (barring appearances of the ‘real’ Victoria Azarenka).  A slam title in 2017 would not surprise.

Simona Halep and Agnieszka Radwanska continue to soldier on near the top of the game.  They are good enough to win tournaments and hold top ranking spots, but winning the big one at a slam seems a tall order for them.  They do not have that dominant gear they can switch on like a Kvitova or a Pliskova, who occasionally blast everyone off the court.  Halep and ARad have an outside chance at a slam title some day, but a lot of things will have to go right to make it happen.

With Serena at 35 and Sharapova at 30, who will fill the coming void at the top?  The perennial top-tenners may find that their long wait is unrewarded if eager newcomers surpass them.  Three new members of that group joining the top 10 this year are Pliskova, Konta, and Keys.

Up a break in the third set of the US Open final, Karolina Pliskova came within a hairsbreadth of her first slam title, but she did not hold her nerve.  She is a smooth, powerful stroker, reminiscent of countrywoman, Kvitova, although she maintains a much cooler demeanor on court.  I have a feeling she will one day claim a slam title because her explosive game is well-suited to a hot two-week run.  She’ll be 25 in March and is already in the meat of her career, so I won’t expect her to rise to #1, (although the likes of Kerber have proven that wisdom wrong).  Before the US Open she had never been past the third round (3R) of a slam in 17 attempts, but I’ll be expecting to see her in at least a SF in 2017.

Johanna Konta established herself as a consistent force in the late rounds of tournaments.  Her best results were the SF of the Aus Open, the title in Stanford, and the finals of Beijing.  She would do well to consolidate in the top 10 in 2017, although much like when Kerber was the same age (25), I do not expect it.

Madison Keys finally had a solid year on all fronts and is rewarded with the #7 ranking for the year.  She won Birmingham and made the finals of the 900’s in Montreal and Rome.  She was one of only four women to make at least 4R of every slam this year (Serena, ARad, CSN) and is 5th for the year in slam rounds won (impressively, she was second last year).

2016 Player
Slam rounds won
SWilliams
24
Kerber
20
ARadwanska
14
SuarezNavarro
13
Keys
12
Halep, Muguruza, VWilliams
11
KaPliskova, Konta
9

Keys has the sort of big game that could win slams and take her to #1.  At age 21 she could be the future of the sport.

Svetlana Kuznetsova surprised by taking two titles this year and finding her way back to the top 10 after six years of torpor.  She could threaten at Roland Garros.

Dominika Cibulkova put in a solid year, making the QF at Wimbledon and taking three small tournaments.  She really turned it on in the yearend WTA Finals, claiming the title and the #5 ranking spot.  If she can maintain her confidence she could threaten for a slam title in 2017.

Petra Kvitova drops to #11 this year after five yearend top 10 finishes.  She could win Wimbledon in 2017.  Or lose in the first round.

Yearend Top Ten Finishes (Active Players)

Yearend Top Ten Finishes (All time)

SWilliams
15
Betz
22
VWilliams
12
Navratilova
20
Sharapova
10
Evert
18
ARadwanska
8
BingleyHillyard
18
Kuznetsova
6
King
17
Wozniacki
6
LMartin
17
Azarenka
5
CooperSterry
16
Kvitova
5
Brough
16
Kerber
5
SWilliams, Lambert, Sutton
15
Jankovic
5
Graf, Wills, Hart, Wade
14

Carla Suarez Navarro (CSN) spent another 14 weeks in the top 10 this year, and continues to hover around that august ranking.  She finishes the year at #12.  For 2017 I’ll hope to finally see her make a slam semi.  She’ll be 28 most of the year.

Elina Svitolina makes it to #14 this year and notched wins over Kerber, Muguruza, and Serena.  She’s just age 22 and could make top 10 next year.  Her best slam result has been a QF at the French last year so that may be the site of future break-throughs.

There are five 1997 babies that deserve mention, one from 1999, and three from 2000.  The class of 2000 includes Pervushina, Andreescu, and Yastremska.  All are ranked about 400 and will bear watching from the corner of the eye in 2017.  Born in 1999 is Catherine Bellis, far oustripping her birthmates, and attaining a ranking of about 90 at yearend.  She might reach top 50 in the coming year, although size is not on her side at only 5’7”. 

The class of 1997 is now coming into its own with 5 members in the top 50, the lowest of which is #48, Ana Konjuh.  The others are Jelena Ostapenko #44, Belinda Bencic #43, Naomi Osaka #40, and the leader of the pack, Daria Kasatkina #27.  All are talented.  Bencic made it as high as #7 in February, spent 19 weeks in the top 10, but may be working through a sophomore slump.  Osaka has a high-octane game that looks powerful and effective to me.  Any or all of this foursome could storm the top 10 in 2017.

Rankings for 2016

For the second year in a row, I see no cause to deviate from the WTA rankings in yearend position.  During the year there were four new additions to the computer top 10:  Bencic, Vinci, Konta, and Keys.  Exiting the top 10 this year were Safarova, Sharapova, Pennetta, Bacsinszky, Bencic, Kvitova, Azarenka, Vinci, VWilliams, and Suarez Navarro, although they could all be back, except Pennetta (who retired).


My predictions from last year in brackets

Top 10 Predictions for 2017

I still believe Serena is the best and predict her for #1 next year.  Kerber gets #2, and a returning Sharapova #3.  Halep and ARadwanska continue to perform consistently at the top of the game.  Muguruza seems to rise up for a good run every year, but until I see more consistency from her I can’t predict her above #6.  Keys was 4th in matches won this year and 5th in slam rounds won, so she could go even higher, but for now I predict #7 for her.  After 2016’s US Open runner-up performance I think we have not seen the best of Pliskova, so she gets #8.  Kvitova has the talent to be #1 but her inconsistency means she could finish below 10 like in 2016, but I think she will regroup and make at least #9 in 2017.

The last spot in my 2017 predicted top 10 has several possibilities – like Victoria Azarenka who is away having a baby, but she probably won’t be back in time to make a serious run at the top 10 (unless she pulls a Clijsters).  Kuznetsova showed she still has some top 10 game in her this year, but because of the last few years of inconsistency I expect she won’t repeat it.  Suarez Navarro has been in and out of the top 10 for two years and could easily finish there in 2017.  And then there are the talented youngsters: Osaka, Bencic, Kasatkina, Ostapenko; any of whom could threaten the top group.  In the end, however, the much improved performance of Cibulkova makes me believe she will stay near the top next year.

Slam Predictions 2017

Each year since 1996 I have attempted to predict the top 12 finishers at each of the slams.  There are some ups and downs in my predictive accuracy, but overall the trend is slightly upward, rising from 72.5% in 1996 to 77.3% this year.  My best year was 2007 in which I got 79.7%.  My predictions for 2017 are as follows.


Aus Open

I don’t think Serena will win all four slams, but she is nevertheless the favourite at each one.  Kerber is the only other former champion playing the Australian.  Other than Serena and Konta who made semis last year in the only time she played, Radwanska and Bouchard have the best W-L % among active players who will play.  But Bouchard is still not at her best.  Madison Keys could make a deep run, as could any of the players in my Aus top 12.  Kerber could do it again, but there are too many players that can hit through her to make predicting her as winner, safe.

Average slam rounds won (career) – Aus Open

Konta
5
SWilliams
4.6
Bouchard
3.3
ARadwanska
3.2
VWilliams
2.8
Wozniacki
2.6
Muguruza
2.3
Keys
2.2
Kuznetsova
2.1
Kerber, SuarezNavarro
2.0


Roland Garros

Serena is the favourite but Sharapova has made three French finals in the last four that she has played.  Will 1.5 months be enough time for her to find her best game?  Muguruza won last year so can’t be counted out, but I still don’t trust that she can show any kind of consistency in defending a title, until I see some evidence from her.  Can Kerber make the only slam final that eluded her last year?  Perhaps Halep will better her runner-up performance from three years ago.

Wimbledon

It would be foolhardy to overlook the 7 titles of the defending champion, Serena.  Kvitova seems to find her best game on grass, some years.  It’s been three years since her last title (which was three years after her first) so perhaps Petra will rise again with a Wimbledon crown.  Kerber, Radwanska, and Muguruza are all former finalists who could make deep runs.  Nor is it safe to overlook Sharapova and Venus who are former champions.  And the big power games of Keys and Pliskova seem well-suited to grass.

US Open

If Azarenka returns to the tour after giving birth, she could be challenging for trophies by the US Open.  But of course, Serena is still the favourite, and the defending champion, Kerber, deserves #2 billing.  It will be interesting to see how well Pliskova does at defending or bettering her runner-up points from 2016.  At some point I expect Keys to break through with a major championship, and home turf at the US Open could well be the setting.

Bookies odds for 2017 slams on 15 Nov 2016 from bet365.com:


The bookies did not include Sharapova in their French and US Open predictions.  They also overvalue Bencic in my opinion.  I am less favourable to Muguruza than they are, but more favourable toward Radwanska.  We agree, however, that Serena deserves top billing for the coming year.

Comments

  1. Loving this quality analysis, Charles. 2017 should be very interesting on the women's side. Opportunity is there for someone to grab some major trophies...but who will it be?

    ReplyDelete

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