Women’s Tennis 2016 and a Look Ahead
In 2016 two women each made three slam finals. Not surprisingly, one was Serena
Williams. The other would have been
about 10th on my list of guesses at the end of last year. But undoubtedly, this year belongs to
Angelique Kerber who made her first slam final at age 28 and won two of the
sport’s greatest crowns.
Kerber bolted out of the blocks with a runnerup showing in
Brisbane to Victoria Azarenka. Angie
then survived a match point in her first round against Misaki Doi at the
Australian Open. What might this year
have looked like had she lost that single point? Would she have made any slam finals? But win it she did, and she then clawed her
way to the title, taking out Serena in the final, 6-4 in the third set. It ended a run of 8 slam finals that Serena
won when playing for the title.
In February, the Premier 5 event in Doha was won by Carla
Suarez Navarro over up and coming Jelena Ostapenko. Sharapova shocked the world with the
announcement she had tested positive for a banned substance, Meldonium. She was eventually suspended for 15 months,
set to return in April 2017.
Azarenka swept the Indian Wells – Miami double and seemed
well on her way to re-establishing herself at the top of the game. She withdrew from a couple matches, but by
early May, heading into Rome, she was sporting a 26-1 (win-loss) match record
for the year and appeared a force to be reckoned with. However she lost her first matches in both
Rome and Paris and did not play again, announcing in July that she was
pregnant.
Kerber defended the 470-point clay tune-up in Stuttgart and
Serena won the 900 in Rome, but the Roland Garros crown was claimed by Garbine
Muguruza over Serena in the final. It
was Serena’s second slam final loss of the year. Before 2016, Serena had only ever lost 4 slam
finals.
Serena finally righted the ship at Wimbledon, claiming the
title over Kerber. With Serena back on
course, it was a shock when she went down to Elina Svitolina at the
Olympics. The surprises continued when
unheralded Monica Puig won, claiming Puerto Rico’s first ever gold medal, with
the silver going to Kerber. It was
becoming clear Kerber was making a statement this year.
In the meantime, Simona Halep captured the big titles in
Madrid and Canada, and Karolina Pliskova claimed Cincinnati, from
finalist-yet-again, Kerber. Pliskova was
just warming up, however, and shocked the establishment by taking Serena out of
the US Open semi-finals to face Kerber in the final. Up a break in the third set of the final, it
appeared the ingénue would claim her maiden slam title, but Kerber hung tough
and claimed her second of the year instead.
Kerber wrested the #1 ranking from Serena after the US Open, ending 241
weeks without a new #1, the longest gap since Graf reached the pinnacle in
1987.
In the end of year swing, Petra Kvitova finally woke from hibernation
and halted her slide down the rankings, capturing the Premier 5 title in Wuhan
at the expense of Dominika Cibulkova, who had also featured in the Madrid
final. Agnieszka Radwanska lifted the
1000 trophy in Beijing over Johanna Konta.
Konta had announced her presence at the SF of the Australian in January,
and output a solid year, that saw her rising out of a triple digit ranking 15
months earlier all the way to the top 10 after Beijing.
At the WTA Finals in Singapore, Kerber again made a big
tournament final, but lost to Dominika Cibulkova. Domi claimed her fourth title of the year,
most on tour, and rose to #5 in the world.
Kerber made 5 of the 6 biggest finals of the year.
Analysis
The best results package for 2016 clearly belongs to Kerber
who won two slam titles, was in the final of a third, made the finals of the
Olympics, the WTA Finals, and Cincinnati, and captured Stuttgart. However there was not a dominant leader in
titles won for the year, with four being the most any one player took.
Titles Won
2016
|
Point Value
|
|
Cibulkova
|
4
|
2680*
|
Kerber
|
3
|
4470
|
Azarenka
|
3
|
2470
|
Halep
|
3
|
2180
|
ARadwanska
|
3
|
1750
|
Stephens
|
3
|
1030
|
SWilliams
|
2
|
2900
|
KaPliskova
|
2
|
1180
|
Kuznetsova
|
2
|
940
|
Wozniacki
|
2
|
750
|
Garcia
|
2
|
560
|
* WTA Finals valued at 1500 regardless of actual points
gained
Looking at career titles won among active players, it may
seem surprising that Caroline Wozniacki still leads the circa 1990-born pack,
considering that her ranking dropped into the 70’s this year.
Active Players
|
Career Titles
Won
|
SWilliams
|
71
|
VWilliams
|
49
|
Sharapova
|
35
|
Wozniacki
|
25
|
ARadwanska
|
20
|
Azarenka
|
20
|
Kvitova
|
19
|
Kuznetosva
|
17
|
Ivanovic
|
15
|
Jankovic
|
15
|
Halep
|
14
|
Kerber
|
10
|
Vinci
|
10
|
Serena only played 8 tournaments in 2016, and lost 6 times,
which is double last year’s number of total losses. She won 38 matches, which still makes for a
very good winning percentage. But the
honour for most match wins during the year belongs to Kerber.
2016 results
|
Match wins
|
Match losses
|
Win ratio (to
losses)
|
Kerber
|
63
|
18
|
3.50
|
ARadwanska
|
53
|
18
|
2.94
|
Cibulkova
|
53
|
21
|
2.52
|
Keys
|
47
|
17
|
2.76
|
Konta
|
46
|
22
|
2.09
|
Kvitova
|
46
|
23
|
2.00
|
Halep
|
45
|
18
|
2.50
|
Kuznetsova
|
45
|
22
|
2.05
|
KaPliskova
|
44
|
23
|
1.91
|
Svitolina
|
41
|
22
|
1.86
|
Suarez Navarro
|
39
|
21
|
1.86
|
SWilliams
|
38
|
6
|
6.33
|
Kerber may have gotten the better of Serena this year, but
Serena’s much superior win ratio tells me that Serena is still the best player
in the game. It is probably fair to
favour Serena at every tournament she plays.
With her Wimbledon victory, Serena now has 22 slam singles titles, tied
with Graf for second on the all-time list behind Margaret Court with 24. The experience of this year tells me that one
slam title next year is likely reasonable, with two or more a possibility. On Kerber’s side I feel it is about 60-40 if
she will claim another slam in 2017, although she may hang on to the #1 ranking
for some time.
Garbine Muguruza showed signs of promise last year when she
made the Wimbledon final, but really delivered by taking the French title this
year. However, it was her only title for
the year and she manages only #7 in the yearend WTA rankings. She’s 23 years old so should be hitting the
real stride of her career in the next 3 to 5 years. A small sophomore slump after a maiden slam
title is not unexpected but the question remains if she will turn into a
dominating multi-slam winning #1 or follow a path more like Kvitova and
Kuznetsova who claim the odd slam title at unpredictable intervals. It may depend on when Serena and Sharapova
retire.
It appears that Sharapova was definitely using Meldonium,
and likely, as a performance enhancer.
As long as that was legal, it cannot be called wrong. However she exceeded the grace period and a
punishment was enforced. This is
probably a good sign for tennis, since one of its highest profile stars did not
get away with rule-breaking.
Maria will be 30 years old when she returns, which is
nearing the best-before date for the major-winning aspirations of most top
players. However, the long absence will
probably have whetted her appetite for victory and she will likely have been straining
against the traces to see Serena struggling in 2016. Will the same opportunities be available in
2017? If her training has gone well, she
may need little time to reinsert herself into the top of the game. She has been the de facto #2 for most of the
last five years, (barring appearances of the ‘real’ Victoria Azarenka). A slam title in 2017 would not surprise.
Simona Halep and Agnieszka Radwanska continue to soldier on
near the top of the game. They are good
enough to win tournaments and hold top ranking spots, but winning the big one
at a slam seems a tall order for them.
They do not have that dominant gear they can switch on like a Kvitova or
a Pliskova, who occasionally blast everyone off the court. Halep and ARad have an outside chance at a
slam title some day, but a lot of things will have to go right to make it
happen.
With Serena at 35 and Sharapova at 30, who will fill the
coming void at the top? The perennial
top-tenners may find that their long wait is unrewarded if eager newcomers
surpass them. Three new members of that
group joining the top 10 this year are Pliskova, Konta, and Keys.
Up a break in the third set of the US Open final, Karolina
Pliskova came within a hairsbreadth of her first slam title, but she did not
hold her nerve. She is a smooth,
powerful stroker, reminiscent of countrywoman, Kvitova, although she maintains
a much cooler demeanor on court. I have
a feeling she will one day claim a slam title because her explosive game is
well-suited to a hot two-week run.
She’ll be 25 in March and is already in the meat of her career, so I won’t
expect her to rise to #1, (although the likes of Kerber have proven that wisdom
wrong). Before the US Open she had never
been past the third round (3R) of a slam in 17 attempts, but I’ll be expecting
to see her in at least a SF in 2017.
Johanna Konta established herself as a consistent force in
the late rounds of tournaments. Her best
results were the SF of the Aus Open, the title in Stanford, and the finals of
Beijing. She would do well to
consolidate in the top 10 in 2017, although much like when Kerber was the same
age (25), I do not expect it.
Madison Keys finally had a solid year on all fronts and is
rewarded with the #7 ranking for the year.
She won Birmingham and made the finals of the 900’s in Montreal and
Rome. She was one of only four women to
make at least 4R of every slam this year (Serena, ARad, CSN) and is 5th
for the year in slam rounds won (impressively, she was second last year).
2016 Player
|
Slam rounds
won
|
SWilliams
|
24
|
Kerber
|
20
|
ARadwanska
|
14
|
SuarezNavarro
|
13
|
Keys
|
12
|
Halep, Muguruza, VWilliams
|
11
|
KaPliskova, Konta
|
9
|
Keys has the sort of big game that could win slams and take
her to #1. At age 21 she could be the
future of the sport.
Svetlana Kuznetsova surprised by taking two titles this year
and finding her way back to the top 10 after six years of torpor. She could threaten at Roland Garros.
Dominika Cibulkova put in a solid year, making the QF at
Wimbledon and taking three small tournaments.
She really turned it on in the yearend WTA Finals, claiming the title
and the #5 ranking spot. If she can
maintain her confidence she could threaten for a slam title in 2017.
Petra Kvitova drops to #11 this year after five yearend top
10 finishes. She could win Wimbledon in
2017. Or lose in the first round.
Yearend Top Ten Finishes (Active Players)
|
Yearend Top Ten Finishes (All time)
|
||
SWilliams
|
15
|
Betz
|
22
|
VWilliams
|
12
|
Navratilova
|
20
|
Sharapova
|
10
|
Evert
|
18
|
ARadwanska
|
8
|
BingleyHillyard
|
18
|
Kuznetsova
|
6
|
King
|
17
|
Wozniacki
|
6
|
LMartin
|
17
|
Azarenka
|
5
|
CooperSterry
|
16
|
Kvitova
|
5
|
Brough
|
16
|
Kerber
|
5
|
SWilliams, Lambert, Sutton
|
15
|
Jankovic
|
5
|
Graf, Wills, Hart, Wade
|
14
|
Carla Suarez Navarro (CSN) spent another 14 weeks in the top
10 this year, and continues to hover around that august ranking. She finishes the year at #12. For 2017 I’ll hope to finally see her make a
slam semi. She’ll be 28 most of the year.
Elina Svitolina makes it to #14 this year and notched wins
over Kerber, Muguruza, and Serena. She’s
just age 22 and could make top 10 next year.
Her best slam result has been a QF at the French last year so that may
be the site of future break-throughs.
There are five 1997 babies that deserve mention, one from
1999, and three from 2000. The class of
2000 includes Pervushina, Andreescu, and Yastremska. All are ranked about 400 and will bear
watching from the corner of the eye in 2017.
Born in 1999 is Catherine Bellis, far oustripping her birthmates, and
attaining a ranking of about 90 at yearend.
She might reach top 50 in the coming year, although size is not on her
side at only 5’7”.
The class of 1997 is now coming into its own with 5 members
in the top 50, the lowest of which is #48, Ana Konjuh. The others are Jelena Ostapenko #44, Belinda
Bencic #43, Naomi Osaka #40, and the leader of the pack, Daria Kasatkina #27. All are talented. Bencic made it as high as #7 in February,
spent 19 weeks in the top 10, but may be working through a sophomore
slump. Osaka has a high-octane game that
looks powerful and effective to me. Any or
all of this foursome could storm the top 10 in 2017.
Rankings for 2016
For the second year in a row, I see no cause to deviate from
the WTA rankings in yearend position.
During the year there were four new additions to the computer top
10: Bencic, Vinci, Konta, and Keys. Exiting the top 10 this year were Safarova,
Sharapova, Pennetta, Bacsinszky, Bencic, Kvitova, Azarenka, Vinci, VWilliams,
and Suarez Navarro, although they could all be back, except Pennetta (who
retired).
My predictions from last year in brackets
Top 10 Predictions for 2017
I still believe Serena is the best and predict her for #1
next year. Kerber gets #2, and a
returning Sharapova #3. Halep and
ARadwanska continue to perform consistently at the top of the game. Muguruza seems to rise up for a good run
every year, but until I see more consistency from her I can’t predict her above
#6. Keys was 4th in matches
won this year and 5th in slam rounds won, so she could go even
higher, but for now I predict #7 for her.
After 2016’s US Open runner-up performance I think we have not seen the
best of Pliskova, so she gets #8.
Kvitova has the talent to be #1 but her inconsistency means she could
finish below 10 like in 2016, but I think she will regroup and make at least #9
in 2017.
The last spot in my 2017 predicted top 10 has several
possibilities – like Victoria Azarenka who is away having a baby, but she probably
won’t be back in time to make a serious run at the top 10 (unless she pulls a
Clijsters). Kuznetsova showed she still
has some top 10 game in her this year, but because of the last few years of
inconsistency I expect she won’t repeat it.
Suarez Navarro has been in and out of the top 10 for two years and could
easily finish there in 2017. And then
there are the talented youngsters: Osaka, Bencic, Kasatkina, Ostapenko; any of
whom could threaten the top group. In
the end, however, the much improved performance of Cibulkova makes me believe
she will stay near the top next year.
Slam Predictions 2017
Each year since 1996 I have attempted to predict the top 12
finishers at each of the slams. There
are some ups and downs in my predictive accuracy, but overall the trend is
slightly upward, rising from 72.5% in 1996 to 77.3% this year. My best year was 2007 in which I got
79.7%. My predictions for 2017 are as
follows.
Aus Open
I don’t think Serena will win all four slams, but she is
nevertheless the favourite at each one.
Kerber is the only other former champion playing the Australian. Other than Serena and Konta who made semis
last year in the only time she played, Radwanska and Bouchard have the best W-L
% among active players who will play.
But Bouchard is still not at her best.
Madison Keys could make a deep run, as could any of the players in my
Aus top 12. Kerber could do it again,
but there are too many players that can hit through her to make predicting her
as winner, safe.
Average slam rounds won (career) – Aus Open
|
|
Konta
|
5
|
SWilliams
|
4.6
|
Bouchard
|
3.3
|
ARadwanska
|
3.2
|
VWilliams
|
2.8
|
Wozniacki
|
2.6
|
Muguruza
|
2.3
|
Keys
|
2.2
|
Kuznetsova
|
2.1
|
Kerber, SuarezNavarro
|
2.0
|
Roland Garros
Serena is the favourite but Sharapova has made three French
finals in the last four that she has played.
Will 1.5 months be enough time for her to find her best game? Muguruza won last year so can’t be counted
out, but I still don’t trust that she can show any kind of consistency in
defending a title, until I see some evidence from her. Can Kerber make the only slam final that
eluded her last year? Perhaps Halep will
better her runner-up performance from three years ago.
Wimbledon
It would be foolhardy to overlook the 7 titles of the
defending champion, Serena. Kvitova
seems to find her best game on grass, some years. It’s been three years since her last title
(which was three years after her first) so perhaps Petra will rise again with a
Wimbledon crown. Kerber, Radwanska, and
Muguruza are all former finalists who could make deep runs. Nor is it safe to overlook Sharapova and
Venus who are former champions. And the
big power games of Keys and Pliskova seem well-suited to grass.
US Open
If Azarenka returns to the tour after giving birth, she could
be challenging for trophies by the US Open.
But of course, Serena is still the favourite, and the defending
champion, Kerber, deserves #2 billing.
It will be interesting to see how well Pliskova does at defending or bettering
her runner-up points from 2016. At some
point I expect Keys to break through with a major championship, and home turf
at the US Open could well be the setting.
Bookies odds for 2017 slams
on 15 Nov 2016 from bet365.com:
Loving this quality analysis, Charles. 2017 should be very interesting on the women's side. Opportunity is there for someone to grab some major trophies...but who will it be?
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