2017 WTA Recap and Look into 2018

2017 WTA Recap and Look into 2018

No one dominated the WTA tour this year.  There were four different winners of the slam tournaments, a different player finished the year at #1 on the computer, a sixth player won the year ending WTA finals, a seventh player won the most tournaments this year, and an eighth player won the most prize money.  So who on earth is most deserving of player-of-the-year (POTY) honours?

Year summary

The year started off predictably enough with Serena Williams claiming the Australian Open.  It was her 23^rd singles slam title, breaking the Open Era (since 1968) record she had shared with Steffi Graf (22), but still one behind the all-time record of Margaret Court (24).  But Serena’s opponent in the Aus final was unexpected – her sister, Venus Williams.  Venus hadn’t been in a slam final since 2009.

As it turned out, it was Serena’s last tournament of the year.  A short time later she announced she was pregnant and gave birth to a daughter during the US Open. 

Elina Svitolina won the first of the nine 900/1000 level tournaments of the year at Dubai over Caroline Wozniacki.  The big spring US tournaments at Indian Wells and Miami were won by Elena Vesnina over Svetlana Kuznetsova and Johanna Konta over Wozniacki.  For both Vesnina and Konta this was the biggest tournament win of their careers so far, at the 900/1000 level, and the highlight of their seasons.

The clay season kicked off in earnest in Charleston with a glimpse of a possible future when 19-year olds Daria Kasatkina and Jelena Ostapenko battled for the final.  Kasatkina won but it was a harbinger of bigger things to come for Ostapenko.

A great deal of controversy and ink was expended over the return of Maria Sharapova to competition play at the Porsche Championship in Stuttgart after 15 months of drug suspension.  She did well to make the semis, but the always-competitive tournament was taken by siege by the unheralded Laura Siegemund.  Siegemund had also made the semis of Charleston and seemed destined to make a late-career breakthrough at age 29.  Tragically she suffered a catastrophic knee injury just a month later and sat out the rest of the season.

Simona Halep picked up the sixth 900/1000 tournament of her career by taking Madrid over Kristina Mladenovic, who had also been runner-up in Stuttgart.  Halep next made the final in Rome but was out-gunned by Elina Svitolina, who picked up her second 900/1000 of the year. 

Heading into the French Open at Roland Garros, Halep and Svitolina looked like marginal favourites over Mladenovic, and last year’s champ, Garbine Muguruza.  Sharapova was snubbed and denied a wildcard, amid much sniping.  But the return of Petra Kvitova to tournament play after a horrendous knife attack in her home last December, was lauded and celebrated, especially after she won her first match.  Halep and Svitolina met in the quarters and Svitolina raced to a 6-3, 5-1 lead with victory looking assured.  But she faltered and Halep rolled off 12 of the next 13 games for an improbable six-love-in-the-third victory. 

But the tables were turned on Halep in the final when she led Ostapenko 6-4, 3-0 but failed to close.    A 100:1 long shot at the start of the tournament, the victory by Ostapenko was a revelation.  Two days after her 20^th birthday, she seized control of the final with fearless go-for-broke play, painting the lines with the entitlement of youth.

At Wimbledon the 13-month slumber of Muguruza finally ended as she steadily worked her way to a final round showing with the ageless Venus Williams.  That Williams had returned to the top echelon of the sport at age 37 was remarkable.  But Muguruza was too tough, and though she had not played a final of any description since her victory at the French last year, she claimed a second slam in her third final.

When Muguruza went on to claim the 900/1000 title in Cincinnati in August (over Halep), she became the warm favourite for POTY honours.  In the meantime, Svitolina went on to claim the 900/1000 in Toronto (over Wozniacki), her third title at that level this year, and fifth title overall for the year.

As the US Open dawned, the favourites looked to be Muguruza, Halep, Svitolina, and last year’s finalist Karolina Pliskova who had taken over the #1 ranking in July on the strength of three 2017 titles at the 470 point level and strong play in the latter half of 2016.  But the tournament started to look like the US Closed when Americans ripped through the draw and successfully occupied all four semi-final spots.

Sloane Stephens gave up only three games in the final to Madison Keys.  It capped a remarkable comeback that saw her ranking as low as #953 only two months before the USO.  She had taken nearly a year away from the game to heal a fracture in her foot and was in a walking boot only a few months earlier.  The other semi-finalists were Venus Williams, the only woman to make multiple slam finals during the year, and Coco Vandeweghe, who made the second slam semi of her career, and year, having made it that far in Melbourne.  Coco also made the quarters at Wimbledon in what has been a career year.

The murky battle for #1 did not get much clearer in the fall.  Muguruza reached #1 after the US Open despite a middling round of 16 showing there.  But four weeks later, Halep finally seized the top spot by making the final in Beijing.  It was the fourth time during the year, Halep had been within a match of the #1 ranking, and this time she took it with a win, and then she held it for the rest of the year.

She lost the Beijing final however to Caroline Garcia, who stunned everyone including herself by claiming the last two 900/1000’s of the year, in consecutive weeks, at Wuhan and Beijing.  The run was enough to propel Garcia to the WTA Finals in Singapore, where she won two matches in the round robin to make the semis.  The other Wuhan finalist was Ashleigh Barty who returned to the tour this year after two years away.  Still only 21 years old, Barty made three finals this year, winning one 280 event and rising to a career high ranking of 17.

At the WTA Finals, it came down once again to Venus Williams in the final, this time against Wozniacki.  Venus made the final of the three of the five biggest tournaments of the year, and the semis of four of them, by far the most consistent record at the top tournaments.  But she failed to claim any titles this year and cannot be considered POTY.

Almost as unsuccessful was Wozniacki.  She lost the first six finals she played this year, but claimed the last two, including the WTA Finals, the biggest title of her career.  She finishes the year at #3 on the computer.  The fourth spot goes to Karolina Pliskova who was consistent throughout the year but did not make a showing on the biggest stages.  Venus finishes at #5, and Svitolina, who won a tour-leading five tournaments, gets the #6 spot.  Number 7 goes to Ostapenko.

The top two come down to Halep and Muguruza.  Although Halep is #1 on the computer and made five finals this year, many of them at the highest levels, she won only one of them.  So for me, player of the year goes to Muguruza who won one slam and one 900/1000, and was edged out of the top spot by only 40 computer points, about half a percent.

Garbine Muguruza

Muguruza gave us quite a scare with her extended sophomore slump.  After claiming victory at last year’s French Open, she did not make another final until Wimbledon this year.  But the wait was worth it and she delivered a second slam.  It was her second final at the big W, having lost to Serena in 2015.

Afterwards, many observers seemed ready to anoint Muguruza the new #1 and felt that victory at the US Open would cement her status.  Although she disappointed the hopeful, at the end of the year she still looks like the de facto #1, despite a computer ranking of #2.  Even the WTA awarded her its Player of the Year award.

So what can we realistically expect from her in 2018?  Well, establishing a strong position as the dominant #1 is not what I expect.  For one thing, Serena Williams may be back in the mix.  And secondly, nothing in Muguruza’s history suggests that she is going to dominate.  She’s only won 5 titles total in her career, and this is the first year in which she’s won as many as two.  This is not the resume of a dominant #1.

However it might be reasonable to think she could win another slam next year.  She’s only once made the quarters of a hard court slam (this year’s Aus), so victory at the Australian or US Open is probably unlikely.  But she’s been considerably more successful at the French and Wimbledon, so victory at either or both of those tournaments might be a reasonable expectation.  Probably not both, however, since she seems to space out her wins. 

If Serena makes a slow return or no return to the tour, I could see Muguruza having another year as default #1, since none of the other established players have been making a strong case for being considered the best.  Those established players would include the likes of Halep, Pliskova, Wozniacki, Kvitova, Venus Williams, Radwanska, Konta, Kuznetsova, and Kerber. 

On the other hand, Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka, and of course Serena, could storm back and make strong plays for the top spot.  The other, and perhaps more exciting, threat for #1 could come from a young up and comer like Ostapenko, Kasatkina, an injury-free Belinda Bencic, or maybe Barty, or someone slightly older like Svitolina, Keys, Stephens, or Garcia.  If we have another year of parity, Muguruza could again be #1.  I would like to see her make a stronger, more consistent campaign for the top, but she will do what she can do.

Serena Williams

Serena’s match winning ratio in 2017 was a tour-leading 8.00 (8.00 wins per loss), but her lack of play means she is not a contender for POTY.  She only played two tournaments in 2018.

Match winning ratio 2017	Wins	Losses	Ratio
SWilliams	8	1	8.00
Svitolina	53	14	3.79
KaPliskova	53	18	2.94
Wozniacki	60	21	2.86
VWilliams	38	14	2.71
Sharapova	16	6	2.67
Halep	45	17	2.65
Konta	36	16	2.25
Muguruza	47	21	2.24
Garcia	48	22	2.18
Ostapenko	43	20	2.15
Barty	30	14	2.14
Goerges	48	23	2.09

(does not include WTA125 and Futures matches)

She may not be POTY, but the bookies still consider Serena the best player around.  They name her the top favourite at all four slam tournaments in 2018.  She may be the ‘best’ or most dangerous player, but she did not accomplish the most in 2017, and that is what player of the year is for me.

But can she really be expected to rebound from motherhood just 4.5 months after giving birth and seriously contend for the Australian Open?  I have my doubts to be honest.  But if she decides she does want to make a serious comeback, she will be my favourite at Wimbledon and the US Open.  My guess is she won’t play enough tournaments in 2018 to gain the #1 ranking, but she may accomplish enough to be POTY.

Simona Halep

Simona Halep has claimed that 2017 is her best year yet, and it’s hard to argue with attainment of the yearend #1 ranking.  But the 6175 ranking points she has in 2017 are barely different than the 6060 ranking points she had as #2 in 2015, and are less than the 6292 points she had as #3 in 2014.  The main difference of course in 2017, is that Serena Williams is not ahead of her with 9 or 10 thousand points.  Overall it looks like a weak year for the #1 ranking.

Regardless, Halep should be praised for steeling through to #1.  She finally figured out a way to stay positive and focussed when #1 was on the line.  Martina Navratilova recently opined that yearend #1 was more difficult than winning a slam.  Will this lead to more in 2018?  She says her goal now is to win a slam.

Probably her best bet will be at Roland Garros where she has twice made the final.  It helps that there isn’t a clay court specialist on tour now, and that the field of players seems to have more parity at the French, (unlike the grass of Wimbledon, say, which the Williamses and Kvitova seem to prefer).  If she can retain the positive attitude she displayed at Beijing, Halep will have a chance at the French title, but so far, she cannot be proclaimed the favourite even there.  Rather, Serena, Sharapova, or Muguruza would seem the best bets at RG.

It seems likely that Halep will remain in the top 5 for 2018, maybe even top 2 or 3.  I give her about a 20-25% chance of winning a slam, which is actually quite good.  If she does, she could well finish at #1 again.

Caroline Wozniacki

Wozniacki returns to the computer top 10 after two years absence for a seventh year.  She has the most match wins for the year with 60, ahead of Svitolina and KaPliskova with 53 each. It is her 10^th consecutive year claiming a title at the WTA level, the second longest active streak (Serena is on 11 years).

Consecutive years with WTA Title		Total Span
Navratilova	21	21
Evert	18	18
BJKing*	16	24
Graf	14	14
Sharapova	13	15
SWilliams	11	19
Wade	11	11
Goolagong	11	11
Wozniacki	10	10

*includes pre-open era

It looked like Wozniacki’s title streak would be broken when she lost the first six finals she played this year, but she won the last two.  Her eight finals are the most played by any woman this year.  It was especially heartening to see the way she played in claiming the WTA Finals.  She was aggressive while maintaining her usual superior defensive skills.  To balance these is a great achievement.  The slow court probably favoured her. 

If she can continue to find this sweetspot, a slam title is not out of the question for 2018.  Her best slams are the hardcourt slams, the Aus and US Opens, where she averages 3.5 and 4.2 rounds played, respectively.

Average Slam Rounds Played*	Overall	Aus	Fre	Wim	US
SWilliams	5.79	5.8	5.0	6.1	6.2
Sharapova	4.72	5.0	5.1	4.5	4.2
VWilliams	4.46	4.0	3.4	5.4	5.1
Azarenka	3.90	4.7	3.1	3.6	4.2
ARadwanska	3.65	4.0	3.1	4.5	3.0
Muguruza	3.60	3.6	4.8	4.0	2.0
Kuznetsova	3.53	3.2	4.5	3.1	3.3
Kvitova	3.41	2.8	3.3	4.1	3.3
Wozniacki	3.38	3.5	2.8	3.0	4.2

Win=8, RU=7, SF=6, QF=5, 4R=4, 3R=3, 2R=2, 1R=1, (best active players only)
Others: Zvonareva 3.21, Keys 3.10, Stephens 3.09, Kerber 3.00, Jankovic 3.00, Bouchard 2.95, Halep 2.93, SuarezNavarro 2.89, Cibulkova 2.83, Makarova 2.80, Ostapenko 2.70

Overall I’d give Wozniacki about a 10% chance to win a slam next year, and I expect her to remain in the top 10, and likely in the top 5.

Karolina Pliskova

KaPliskova charged out of the gate winning three titles at the 470 level in the first half of the year.  She then seized the #1 ranking from Kerber after Wimbledon.  And after that she largely fizzled.  Her win rate per loss halved to 2.0 as she went 16-8 (W-L) after Wimbledon.  Perhaps the pressure of the #1 ranking got to her, or maybe it was just one of the normal cycles that tennis players seem to go through.

Regardless, it was her best year in terms of ranking as she climbed to yearend #4 from #6 last year.  And her 8 weeks at #1 is a laudable accomplishment.  After last year’s US Open runner-up performance, many were expecting a slam title from Pliskova in 2017.  Although that did not materialize, she made QF or better at three of the slams, including SF at the French, except Wimbledon (2R) where many picked her as favourite for the title.

In 2018 I will be less quick to anoint her as favourite for any slams, even if her big game is well-suited for a slam run some day.  She showed signs of life in the yearend championships, so I expect she will stay near the top 5 for 2018 and give her about a 10% chance to claim a slam title.

Venus Williams

Venus tops the prize money listing for 2017, a milestone she achieved once before in 2001.  She was also second in 2002 and 2008.

Prize money 2017	$
VWilliams	$5,468,741
Muguruza	$5,433,457
Halep	$5,275,227
Wozniacki	$4,748,518

Overall, 37 women earned more than $1 million playing tennis in 2017.  This is up from 32 in 2016 and from 30 in 2015.  In 2012, only 15 women earned at least $1 million.  Venus is second on the all time list with $39.9 million earned, behind sister Serena who has $84.5 million.  Nine of the current top ten in career prize money played in 2017.  The greatest amount earned in one year was the $12.4 million Serena took home in 2013.

Venus was the most consistent at the biggest tournaments this year, making two slam finals, three finals in the biggest 5 tournaments (including WTA Finals), and at least SF in four of the top 5 tournaments.  But she did not win a tournament at any level.  It’s a little mystifying.  She has won 49 tournaments, which is 11^th best the Open Era (since 1968), and won at least one in each of the previous three years.  Is it age, or has she developed a mental block about winning?  The Wimbledon final was especially puzzling.  After battling mightily to go up two set points at 5-4 in the first set, she seemed to mentally collapse and lost 9 games in a row to surrender the title bid.  Hopefully this was a blip and not an indication of a long term mental block.

In 2018, I expect Venus will win a WTA event somewhere, although a slam is less likely.  Wimbledon is probably her best bet for a slam title, although I would likely place Serena, Muguruza, and Kvitova ahead of her in that probability queue.  I also expect her to finish in the top 10 again.

Elina Svitolina

Svitolina finished last year at #14, but quickly joined the top 10 in February and rose as high as #3 on the backs of five tournament wins including three at the 900/1000 level.  She won all five finals she contested and led the tour in WTA points gained from tournament victories.

WTA championship matches 2017	Finals contested	Finals won	Points from tournament finals	Points from tournament wins
Svitolina	5	5	3260	3260
Muguruza	2	2	2900	2900
Ostapenko	3	2	2585	2280
SWilliams	1	1	2000	2000
Stephens	1	1	2000	2000
Wozniacki	8	2	4580	1970
Garcia	2	2	1900	1900
Konta	3	2	1650	1470
KaPliskova	3	0	1410	1410

Svitolina won a tour-high 5 tournaments, followed by Pavlyuchenkova and KaPliskova with 3 each.  Another eight women won 2 titles each, and 31 won a single title in 2017 (at the WTA level or higher).

Although Svitolina was very successful at WTA tournaments she did not fare as well at the slams, where she reached only one quarter-final (QF), at the French.  Although Venus won the derby for most rounds gained in slams in 2017 with 24 (RU, RU, SF, 4R), I deem Muguruza to have had the best slam year with 21 rounds gained on W, QF, 4R, 4R, edging out Ostapenko who went W, QF, 3R, 3R.

Slam rounds gained 2017	8=W, 7=RU, 6=SF, 5=QF, 4=4R, 3=3R, 2=2R, 1=1R	A	F	W	U	WTA points from slams
VWilliams	24	7	4	7	6	3620
Muguruza	21	5	4	8	4	2910
Ostapenko	19	3	8	5	3	2690
Vandeweghe	18	6	1	5	6	2000
KaPliskova	18	5	6	2	5	1710
Svitolina	16	3	5	4	4	1040
Garcia	15	3	5	4	3	930
Kuznetsova	15	4	4	5	2	980

Wozniacki and Halep each gained 14 rounds; Sevastova and Konta had 13; Suarez Navarro, Radwanska, and Bacsinszky all had 12.  In terms of WTA points gained at the slams, Serena finished in a tie for fifth despite only playing the Australian Open: VWilliams 3620, Muguruza 2910, Ostapenko 2690, Stephens 2010, Vandeweghe 2000, SWilliams 2000, Halep 1750.

For next year, I’ll be looking to see if Svitolina can go a bit deeper at one of the slams.  She could be a serious contender at Roland Garros for the French title and should stick around the top 10.

Jelena Ostapenko

Ostapenko was the breakout sensation of 2017 on the WTA tour.  In my yearend write-up last year I mentioned her as one of four 19-year olds I thought might assault the top 10.  She was the only one that achieved that level in 2017, and she did it with a bang, by taking Roland Garros. She knocked off a slew of talented players en route to the final, where she blasted Halep off the court after losing the first set, winning 12 of the last 16 games.

Importantly, she followed it up with a QF at Wimbledon and a title in Seoul.  A sophomore slump in 2018 might seem par for the course as the weight of expectations will likely be felt, but I have a feeling she will shake it off.  She may not win the French in 2018, but she is a former Wimbledon junior champ, so may have a very good result there.  I look for her to remain in the top 10, and begin to challenge seriously for slam titles again in 2019.  Her game seems a little wild.  If she can tame it, she may be a candidate for the #1 ranking at some point in the future, if Serena ever retires.

Caroline Garcia

To the surprise of many, including herself perhaps, Garcia finishes at world #8 for 2017.  She hung around the 20’s for most of the year, after a couple years in the 30’s.  But suddenly she went on an 11 match win streak to claim the last two 900/1000’s of the year, catapulting her into the WTA Finals and yearend top 10.

The question now is, will she stick around?  Her best ever results at each of the four slams happened this year, so she clearly has been improving for the whole year, not just the last three weeks of it.  I’m uncertain if she will remain in the top 10.  If she believes she belongs there, she has the game to do it.  Can she go higher? And can she challenge for a slam? 

A bit of a slump through the Aus and Indian Wells / Miami swings would not be unexpected, but if she’s for real she should post some good top-10-worthy results in the first half of the year.  Regardless, what she accomplished this year is an enormous achievement and she should be proud.

Sloane Stephens

Sloane didn’t play until Wimbledon, where, fresh off crutches and with a protected ranking, she lost first round.  But she started to look dangerous when she made SF of both 900/1000’s in Canada and Cincinnati.  She then worked her way through a string of talent at the US Open, where the least accomplished player she faced was likely Ashleigh Barty who finished the year at #17.  It was not an easy draw, but she went all the way through to the glory of the title – a magnificent achievement.

It was something like vindication for Sloane.  She had splashed on the scene in 2013 as a 19-year old with a shock run to the Aus Open semis, taking out Serena along the way.  Then she plateaued, and last year’s foot injury sent her ranking tumbling into the 900’s.  But she silenced her doubters and looked again like the gigly ingénue who bubbled her way into the hearts of the public four years ago.  Except this time she was serious, at least about her tennis.

Predictably, she lost the last four matches of her 2017 campaign.  But she will recharge over the winter and get a chance to fight again in the Australian summer.  The post-slam hangover may last through at least the next slam, but I will be looking to see if she can regroup by Indian Wells / Miami or maybe the spring clay swing.

It would be great to see her finally make the top 10 in the computer rankings.  I’m not sure if she will be a serious contender at the US Open in 2018, but I wouldn’t rule it out.  Despite the bubbly persona, a tiger may lie within.  She may not become a dominant multi-year #1, but I think that she, like Muguruza, might rise up for the odd slam or stint at #1 sometime in the future.

Johanna Konta

Konta finishes at #9 on the WTA ranking.  Her year started with a bang, taking the title in Sydney and making QF at the Australian.  She then stunned everyone with a title run at the 900/1000 in Miami, beating Halep, VWilliams, and Wozniacki in the last three rounds.  She struggled through the clay season and then played four tournaments on grass, amassing a 13-4 record on the surface, culminating in the semis of Wimbledon.  The last half of her year was a woeful 2-6.

Clearly she will be hoping to emulate the first half of the year in the future.  But can she?  She has now made two consecutive years in the WTA yearend top 10.  She will not be able to tread water, however, if she wants to stay there.  There is a lot of talent coming up, and trying to hold the status quo may see her fall into the teens of the rankings.  I predicted that fate for her last year and was wrong, but the last half of 2017, has me thinking she will likely fall just out of the top 10 in 2018.  Hopefully she proves me wrong again.

Coco Vandeweghe

Coco, aged 25, had her best year to date.  She made the semis of both hard court slams and the quarters at Wimbledon.  She also ended the season on a high, leading her country to a Federation Cup title.  She finished at #10 in the WTA rankings.  She’s got a big game that’s deadly when it’s on, but can be a little inconsistent.  Can she produce another year that’s as good as this one?

Tellingly, she did not win a title in 2017, and she’s only managed two for her career.  She’s right in the middle of her ability-curve, age wise.  Is she peaking now, or has it taken her this long to learn how to manage some good wins on the tour?  If the latter, then we can expect her to maintain this level or even improve over the next few years.  However, if she lacks the ability to close and claim titles, she will be hard-pressed to advance much beyond where she is now.

Angelique Kerber

Kerber stunned everyone in 2016 by winning two slam titles and claiming #1 for the year.  Which makes her collapse this year all the more stunning.  She falls to #21 in the world, right ahead of last year’s #2, Serena, who is #22 now.  But Serena only played two tournaments and Kerber played a full load with 22.  She barely broke 500 in the wins department, going 29 and 24 (w/l).  What happened?

It seems likely her problems were of the mental and self-confidence variety.  She turns 30 in January, and it’s unclear if she has time left in her career to really regroup and threaten at the top again.  Even if she does not, she can safely revel in the accomplishments of 2016 for the rest of her life without shame.  She accomplished more in that year than most players will in their careers.  I would like to see her improve on 2017 and threaten the top 10 again, but I doubt she will do much more.

Maria Sharapova

Sharapova has, in my opinion, been the best and most dangerous player on the tour, besides Serena, since Clijsters’ last good run in 2011.  Azarenka, Li, and maybe Venus would come next, but the ‘real’ #2 for most of the last 6 years, has been Sharapova.  At least until she got suspended for 15 months for a drug infraction last year.

With a return scheduled for late April at the Stuttgart tournament, I expected Sharapova would have time to make a serious run at the Top 10 this year.  But a lot of debate ensued over whether or not she should be granted wildcards.  She was denied by the French Open, and then missed Wimbledon due to injury.  At the US Open she drew #2 seed, Halep, in the first round and lost to her for the first time in seven career meetings.  So Maria had some bad luck, which sees her rising only to #60 this year.  But she won one of the eight tournaments she played and posted a 16-6 match record for the year – which is a top ten level win ratio (2.67).

With the chance to play a full schedule in 2018, I expect Sharapova will work her way back into the Top Ten.  Until then she will be the unseeded opponent no one wants to face.  She might even threaten for a slam again.  The French Open is probably her best shot, where the surface is a little less favourable to Serena, and where Maria has won twice before.

Victoria Azarenka

After giving birth last year, Azarenka returned to the tour and played only two grass tournaments, Wimbledon, and a tune-up beforehand.  She acquitted herself rather well, making fourth round at Wimbledon.  However things got bizarre when she had to pull out of all tournaments for the rest of the year over a custody battle with her baby’s father.  In an almost inexplicable turn of events, she became confined to California or risked losing custody of her child.

Whether this ridiculous restriction can be overcome in the near future is unclear at this time.  It’s entirely speculative if or how much she will play on the tour in 2018.  If she can see her way clear to playing full time, she should be able to return to the top 10. Her talent did not seem diminished at Wimbledon.  But at this point, what she will be allowed to do is anyone’s guess.

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova was victim of a brutal home invasion and knife attack last December which left her with a mangled playing hand, and uncertain prospects for ever playing again.  However she received excellent surgical care and returned to play at the French Open, albeit without full functionality in her hand.

Miraculously, she won the second tournament of her comeback, in Birmingham, although not against the strongest of fields.  But she was starting to look like her old self again by the US Open, where she made the quarters, and she also posted a semi-final in Beijing.  I expect she will be back at something like full strength again in 2018, which means she could be a threat for Wimbledon.

Kristina Mladenovic

After spending most of the last few years in the 30-50 range of the rankings, Mladenovic caught fire in spring.  She won St. Petersburg, then made the finals of Acapulco, Stuttgart and the 900/1000 in Madrid.  That propelled her near the top 10, where she lurked for a few months before finally spending two weeks at #10 in October.  She finishes the year at #11.

In her spring fling she ran up a gaudy 27-7 record, and looked to be a serious contender for the French Open, where she did indeed make the quarter-finals.  But then she seemed to lose self-confidence and ended the year on a horrendous 12 match losing streak, having not won a match since July.  Perhaps she will find more balance in 2018.  It appears clay is her preferred surface.  She has a lot of points to defend in the clay swing, so it will be interesting to see if she can master that pressure and repeat her successes of 2017.

Svetlana Kuznetsova

After six years away, Kuznetsova re-entered the Top Ten last year at #9.  In 2017 she slipped slightly to #12.  Sometimes it’s hard to remember that she has played four slam finals, winning two of them.  It’s just that they were so long ago, the last a victory at Roland Garros in 2009.  But occasionally she shows flashes of the old brilliance.

She was one of the top eight performers at the slams this year with 15 rounds gained, and she nearly won the 900/1000 in Indian Wells in an extremely close final with Elena Vesnina.  The rest of her year was less memorable.  After so many years of mixed results, it’s hard to expect much different from her in the future.

Madison Keys

Keys had a disappointing start to the year, marred by injury.  She didn’t play until Indian Wells, and then struggled with form right through Wimbledon in July.  However on returning to American hardcourts she was suddenly resurrected and claimed the title in Stanford taking out Muguruza and Vandeweghe.  She followed that up with a run to her first slam final at the US Open.  In the final, she looked overwhelmed by the moment, and went down fairly meekly to a focused Sloane Stephens.  She played only one match in the remainder of the year before pulling the plug, while citing a wrist injury, to regroup for 2018.

With only three career titles, her lackluster showing in the USO final is far from encouraging.  Does she have the mentality to close the deal when it really counts in a tournament final?  However her brilliant run on summer hardcourts and her ability to cleanly wallop the ball have inspired many to label her the next big thing in women’s tennis.  Perhaps the pressure of expectation has gotten to her. 

Hopefully she can bring focus and match toughness to her 2018 campaign.  A slam title is never out of the question for someone of her physical talent.  Perhaps coach Lindsay Davenport who claimed 55 titles in her career, including  three slams, can bring Keys’ mind to heel.  I put Keys’ chances at a slam in 2018 around 10%.

Other very good players

Julia Goerges made five finals in 2018, winning the last two, in Moscow and the awkwardly labelled Elite Finals in Zhuhai.  She finishes the year at #14 and I won’t expect more from her next year.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, #15, won three titles for the year, albeit all at the 280 level.  It was a good and consistent performance that A-Pavs should try to emulate in 2018.

27-year old, Anastasija Sevastova, had her best year to date and finishes #16.  She posted some surprising wins in 2017, over the likes of Sharapova, KaPliskova, Stephens, and Konta.  It was a banner year that should make her proud.

Ashleigh Barty, came out of retirement at age 20, (having retired age 18), after a stint in Australian cricket.  In 2013, aged 17, she made the doubles finals at three of the slams, the Aus, Wim, and the US.  She completed her ‘doubles runner-up’ slam this year at the French, but she arguably had even more success in singles, finishing #17.  In February she won the 280 in Kuala Lumpur, coming from qualifying.  She went on to runner-up showings in Birmingham and the 900/1000 in Wuhan.  She will be over-looked by no one in 2018.  She does not yet appear to have reached her ceiling.

Elena Vesnina probably had the win of her singles career when she captured the 900/1000 in Miami, taking out #1 Kerber, and two other slam champions.  However, I expect her future success to be in doubles, where she has been far more consistent.  She won Wimbledon doubles this year, with Ekaterina Makarova, to add to her two other slam doubles titles and Olympic gold medal in doubles.

After finishing eight of the last nine years in the yearend Top Ten, Agnieszka Radwanska drops to #28.  She finished last year at #3, her best yearend ranking, so perhaps her calamitous fall can be attributed, like Kerber’s, to torpor after the glut of success.  I expect her to improve in 2018, but with a thatch of young talent crowding the top, reaching the first ten might prove a tough slog. Although she fell out of the top 10 in 2017, Radwanska is fourth on the list of active players for weeks spent in the WTA Top 10.

Active Player	Weeks Spent in Top 10
SWilliams	792
VWilliams	608
Sharapova	503
ARadwanska	380
Kuznetsova	350
Wozniacki	320
Azarenka	285
Jankovic	278
Kvitova	261
Kerber	250
Halep	205

As of 31 Dec 2017          

In a similar situation to Radwanska is Dominika Cibulkova.  Last year was her best, as she claimed the #5 ranking, the 1500 point WTA Finals, and 4 total titles.  This year was decidedly more pedestrian and ended with zero titles and a ranking of #26 for the 28-year old.  Her explosive pint-sized game once took her to an Australian Open final, but I think her highs are probably behind her.

Youth Brigade

In addition to the 21-and-unders discussed above (Ostapenko and Barty), there’s a crop of interesting players coming of age.  20-year old Daria Kasatkina is at a career high rank of #24.  She won the reputable 470 in Charleston, made the final of another in Moscow, as well as a round of 16 showing at the US Open.  She doesn’t seem to have the explosiveness of Ostapenko but may be steadier.  She should continue to climb in 2018.

Anett Kontaveit, age 21, rank 34, made the finals of three 280’s winning one of them.  It’s a promising start that should see her go higher in 2018.

Ana Konjuh, age 20, reached as high as #20 this year, but ends the year at #44.  I’ll expect similar results from her in 2018.

Catherine Bellis is only 18 years old and already ranked #46, reaching a high of #35 this year.  At her age, there is always room to go higher.  Top 20 would a great achievement for 2018.

Vikhlyantseva, rank #54, age 20, and Siniakova, rank #49, age 21, and Haddad-Maia, rank #69, age 21, all showed promise this year and may improve in 2018.

Marketa Vondrousova, rank #67, is only 18 years old and claimed her first title this year, a 280 in Biel.  I will expect her to at least join the top 50 in 2018, and she may do much better than that.

Aryna Sabalenka, rank #79, age 19, started the year around #150, but made the final in Tianjin where she gave Sharapova a very tough match.  She also played in the Fed Cup final, beating Sloane Stephens.  She could hit top 50 or higher in the coming year.

Taylor Townsend is an inauspicious #105 for her age of 21.  But I believe that she has untapped talent that could lead to significant improvement in her ranking.

Belinda Bencic, age 20, rank #120 had a very tough, injury-plagued year.  She was once ranked in the top 10 and boasts a 900/1000 title that included a win over Serena.  I’m uncertain about her mental toughness, but a return to injury-free playing could begin to answer that and other questions about her obvious talent.

19-year olds to watch include #113 Kenin, #131 Lapko, #132 Kuzmova, #135 Cabrera, and #136 Blinkova.

In addition to Bellis and Vondrousova, above, 18-year old Kayla Day #154, will be worth tracking in  2018.

The 17-year old cohort includes #150 Aiava, #182 Andreescu, #189 Yastremska, #231 Zavatska, and #263 Liu.

The 16-year olds top out at #192, Anisimova, and include #237 Potapova, and #365 Danilovic.

The top three 15-year olds are #485 Cheong, #521 Kostyuk, and #732 Leylah Fernandez.

The top 14-year old is #743 Clara Tauson.

2018 Rankings

In naming my top 10 for the year I deviated from the WTA rankings for the last two spots.  It seemed to me that the slam wins of Sloane Stephens and Serena Williams merited their inclusion in the top 10, so I displaced #’s 9 and 10, Konta and Vandeweghe.

	Charles 2017 Ranking		WTA 2017 Ranking
1	Muguruza (6)	1	Halep
2	Halep (4)	2	Muguruza
3	Wozniacki (19)	3	Wozniacki
4	KaPliskova (8)	4	KaPliskova
5	VWilliams (21)	5	VWilliams
6	Svitolina (12)	6	Svitolina
7	Ostapenko (23)	7	Ostapenko
8	Garcia (16)	8	Garcia
9	Stephens	9	Konta
10	SWilliams (1)	10	Vandeweghe

Last year’s prediction in brackets

Looking at my predictions from last year, in brackets above, it’s obvious that the way the year unfolded was quite a surprise for me.

2018 Top Ten Predictions

For 2018, I think Serena is likely to become Player of the Year, if not outright #1, if she plays at least 6 or 7 tournaments during the year.  Whether she will be motivated to do so while continuing to mother her child is anyone’s guess.

I was very impressed with Halep’s push to gain the yearend #1 ranking, and think some mental Rubicon has been crossed for her.  I predict more good things for her in 2018, and deem her likely for the #2 ranking.  Muguruza I predict for #3 in 2018.  I might place her higher based on talent and propensity to win slam titles, but her results outside of the slams do not seem to merit it.

Sharapova certainly has the talent and drive to reach #4, but she seems constantly beset by obstacles, frequently injury prevents her from playing the schedule that tells the true story of her ability.  But I will be optimistic and hope she gets a full 2018 of playing under her belt. 

I’m rather uncertain what to make of Venus Williams.  2017 shows she still has plenty of game.  But if she can’t overcome the mental yips she showed in finals this year, she might not retain a spot in the top 10, let alone the top 5.  However, she has too much history and talent for me to ignore so I put her in at #5.

I actually want to put Wozniacki higher than I have, but there’s so much talent crowding the top, she is relegated to #6.  I was very impressed with her end of year title at the WTA Finals, and look for more fine play from her in 2018.  Ditto Karolina Pliskova who reached #1 in 2017 and seems like she should do better than yearend #7 for next year.

It’s entirely possible that Ostapenko will have a significant let down in 2018 after her slam breakthrough this year.  But I’m optimistic she will continue to post enough big wins to establish herself in the top 10 and give her the #8 slot for next year.  Elina Svitolina seems like a legitimate top 10 talent.  She was as high as #3 this year and I’m surprised I don’t have room for her above #9 for next year.  It is a rich age.

That brings me to a prediction for #10.  There are at least 10 more players who seem to me like shoo-ins for a top 10 spot next year.  Yet somehow, impossibly, nine of them must be excluded.  There is both parity and density of talent at the top of the WTA these days.  With eight years in the top ten, ARadwanska would seem like an obvious pick to make it there in 2018.  But her fall into the 20’s and the competition she faces have me looking elsewhere.

An even better candidate for a top 10 spot might be last year’s #1, Kerber. However, her descent to #21 lost look this year, and age (29), have me relegating her.  Coco Vandweghe is the newest member of the top 10, but I suspect she will have trouble repeating this year’s successes.  Ash Barty continues to impress but is she really ready to be a top 10 player? Azarenka clearly has the talent and resume to be at the very top of the game, but I’m guessing her continuing custody struggles will prevent her from playing enough to reach the top group.  Keys is certainly top 10 material, but her collapse in the US Open final has me shying away from her.  Konta just completed a second year in the yearend top 10, but I expect her to descend slightly in 2018.

My final three candidates for #10 in 2018 are Garcia, Stephens, and Kvitova.  Garcia is #8 and seems poised for even better results in 2018.  After her breakthrough US Open title, Stephens has huge up side, and, if she can stay healthy, could become a fixture at the top of the game.  But in the end, I think Kvitova’s proven track record of success and two slam titles mean she is most likely of this group to claim a top ten slot next year.  It is certainly a lot of guessing, and the coming year is sure to make a mockery of my predictions.

Rank	Charles 2018 Prediction
1	SWilliams
2	Halep
3	Muguruza
4	Sharapova
5	VWilliams
6	Wozniacki
7	KaPliskova
8	Ostapenko
9	Svitolina
10	Kvitova

2018 Australian Open Predictions

Like every year, I have made predictions for the top 12 finishers at each of the slams for 2018.  At the Australian Open it seems to me there is no clear favourite.  If Serena plays she will probably be my pick, but after not playing for a year, and with the changes to her body that motherhood entails, I feel no confidence in naming her the favourite.  Here’s a look at past records at the Australian in terms of number of rounds gained.

Average # rounds gained at Aus Open	8=W, 7=RU, 6=SF, 5=QF, 4=4R, 3=3R, 2=2R, 1=1R
SWilliams	5.8
Konta	5.5
Sharapova	5.0
Azarenka	4.7
VWilliams	4.0
ARadwanska	4.0
Bouchard	4.0
Makarova	3.9
Muguruza	3.6
Wozniacki	3.5

Without Serena to thwart her, Venus might go one better than runner-up in 2018.  But her failure to close last year is worrying.  Wozniacki was brilliant in the WTA Finals, but has not been a factor at the slams outside of the US Open.   KaPliskova lost my confidence last year, but it’s not impossible she could blow white hot for two weeks on hard courts.  Ostapenko, Keys, and Stephens all have slam-winning potential, but I suspect none of them will be ready to step forward in January.  Ditto, proven multi-slam winners Sharapova, Azarenka, and Kvitova. 

So it comes down to Halep or Muguruza in my mind.  As good as Halep was in claiming #1 this year, I think she might be better in 2018.  If she should make another slam final, I think she will face it with equanimity.  But Muguruza has already won two slam finals and so I think she has to be considered a more likely candidate to claim another, but only because there is no other clear favourite.  She has only once before made QF in Melbourne.  The bookies are less charitable to Halep than I am.

	Charles AO Prediction		Bet365 AO Prediction	Odds (decimal)
1	Muguruza	1	SWilliams	5.0
2	SWilliams	2	Muguruza	6.0
3	Halep	3	KaPliskova	10
4	Sharapova	4	Sharapova	10
5	Wozniacki	5	Azarenka	11
6	VWilliams	6	Halep	11
7	Keys	7	Kerber	11
8	Svitolina	8	Keys	15
9	KaPliskova	9	Konta	15
10	Kvitova	10	Kvitova	15
11	Stephens	11	Svitolina	17
12	Vandeweghe	12	Stephens	17

2018 French Open Predictions

Again, it would be hard to overlook a healthy Serena as the favourite if she plays.  However I expect she will have few matches under her belt by then.  Timea Bacsinszky has been in two French semis.  Here’s a look at the most consistent performers at Roland Garros.

Average # rounds gained at Fre Open	8=W, 7=RU, 6=SF, 5=QF, 4=4R, 3=3R, 2=2R, 1=1R
Sharapova	5.1
SWilliams	5.0
Muguruza	4.8
Ostapenko	4.5
Kuznetsova	4.5
Suarez Navarro	3.6
Stosur	3.6
Svitolina	3.6
VWilliams	3.4
Schiavone	3.4
Bacsinszky	3.4

12 Nov 2017

Last year, Svitolina and Mladenovic both put forth sterling clay seasons.  Mladenovic was less inspired for the rest of the year and I suspect she will continue that vein.  Svitolina should have gone farther than the QF last year when she was up 6-3 5-1 over Halep.  Perhaps she will push through in 2018.

Stosur, Schiavone, and Kuznetsova have been strong at Roland Garros in the past, but may be past their best tennis.  Garcia and Kasatkina are both fine young clay courters.  Both claimed big clay titles last year and could threaten for the title in Paris.  Without a strong clay past, KaPliskova surprised everyone by making semis last year, but I would be surprised if she does it again.

Clearly Ostapenko can win Roland Garros, as she did in 2017.  But defending a first slam win is not common, and the list of those doing it in the open era (since 1968) is august and short:  Evert, Navratilova, Graf, Seles, Hingis, VWilliams, and surprisingly, Capriati and Azarenka.

Sharapova has not yet looked like her old self, but she has five months to gain momentum and threaten again at her most successful slam where she averages more rounds gained than Serena.  However, I suspect that the top two favourites will be two-time finalist, Halep, and 2015’s winner, Muguruza. It is only because Muguruza has won it before that I deem her the favourite.  It is probably Halep’s best chance at slam success.

	Charles RG Prediction		Bet365 RG Prediction	Odds (decimal)
1	Muguruza	1	SWilliams	5.0
2	Halep	2	Halep	8.0
3	SWilliams	3	Sharapova	9.0
4	Sharapova	4	Muguruza	9.0
5	Ostapenko	5	Azarenka	10
6	Svitolina	6	Svitolina	11
7	KaPliskova	7	Ostapenko	13
8	Stephens	8	Mladenovic	17
9	Garcia	9	KaPliskova	17
10	Kasatkina	10	Kvitova	19
11	Kuznetsova	11	Kuznetsova	23
12	Bacsinszky	12	Kerber	23

12 Nov 2017

2018 Wimbledon Predictions

Wimbledon has a special place in the hearts of many players and they often have their best results there; players like:  VWilliams, Kvitova, SWilliams, Muguruza, ARadwanska, and Lisicki.  Here’s a look at the best performers who are active players.

Average # rounds gained at Wimbledon	8=W, 7=RU, 6=SF, 5=QF, 4=4R, 3=3R, 2=2R, 1=1R
SWilliams	6.1
VWilliams	5.4
Sharapova	4.5
ARadwanska	4.5
Kvitova	4.1
Muguruza	4.0
Lisicki	4.0
Azarenka	3.6
Keys	3.4
Kerber	3.3

12 Nov 2017

With their extremely hard-hitting games, Keys and KaPliskova seem like natural grass court players, although they may struggle with movement on the surface.  Azarenka has had some fine results at SW19, but if she can’t leave California she may not be able to play or may not be match tough.

Wozniacki has not made it past the fourth round, although she has been that far six times.  Kerber has been to the QF or better three times, so perhaps she will start to find her winning ways again on grass.  Lisicki has been to the QF or better five times, although not since 2014.  Aggie Radwanska has only lost before the fourth round once in the last ten years.  Perhaps she can re-find her game at her favourite slam.

Despite making two past finals, Sharapova has only been past the fourth round once since 2011.  But she knows how to win at Wimbledon and I expect her to be hungry in 2018. But the real favourites in my mind are the four women who have won nine of the last ten Wimbledons, the missing one belonging to Marion Bartoli, who is retired.  They are Venus, Serena, Kvitova, and the defending champ, Muguruza.

Kvitova is certainly capable have zapping her lightning bolts around a grass court.  But like lightning, she rarely strikes twice, although she does have two titles.  Muguruza clearly likes the place with two finals in the last three years and success at the formidable task of taking down a Williams sister in the Wimbledon final.  Venus is always dangerous at the venue where she has claimed five titles in nine finals appearances.  But the favourite, and seven-time champ, has to be Serena Williams.

	Charles Wim Prediction		Bet365 Wim Prediction	Odds (decimal)
1	SWilliams	1	SWilliams	4.5
2	Muguruza	2	Kvitova	9.0
3	Kvitova	3	KaPliskova	9.0
4	VWilliams	4	Muguruza	9.0
5	Keys	5	Sharapova	11
6	Sharapova	6	Azarenka	11
7	Azarenka	7	Konta	13
8	Stephens	8	Keys	13
9	Konta	9	Stephens	13
10	Garcia	10	Kerber	19
11	Ostapenko	11	Halep	19
12	Halep	12	VWilliams	19

12 Nov 2017

2018 US Open Predictions

Is it reasonable to expect another year of American domination at their home slam, like in 2017?  Even if Serena has not been playing much, her record at the US Open is superlative and she will be the favourite if she plays.  Venus is not far behind, and then comes the trio of Sharapova, Azarenka, and Wozniacki who all average 4.2 rounds gained per outing.

Average # rounds gained at US Open	8=W, 7=RU, 6=SF, 5=QF, 4=4R, 3=3R, 2=2R, 1=1R
SWilliams	6.2
VWilliams	5.1
Sharapova	4.2
Azarenka	4.2
Wozniacki	4.2
Zvonareva	3.8
Stephens	3.5
KaPliskova	3.4
Keys	3.3
Kerber	3.3
Kvitova	3.3
Kuznetsova	3.3

12 Nov 2017

Wozniacki seems to play her best tennis at the US Open, and if she can channel the form she displayed in taking the yearend championships, she will be a serious threat for the title.  Vandeweghe was brilliant in New York this year, and could repeat or even exceed this year’s SF showing.  I don’t expect Venus to repeat her runner-up showing from 2017.  I expect a deeper field in 2018.

Karolina Pliskova and Keys are both former finalists who like to whack the ball hard.  Both will have to work on mental toughness before they claim this title.  Last year’s winner, Sloane Stephens, clearly likes the conditions at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.  I suspect that repeating will be more difficult than winning the first time, Helen Jacobs notwithstanding – who was the last woman to win her first two slam titles at consecutive US Opens (1932-33).

Although Muguruza has only shown minimal success at the US Open, she is too good not to be in the conversation as a potential champion.  Halep is similar, but she has at least registered a QF and SF in Queens before.

	Charles USO Prediction		Bet365 USO Prediction	Odds (decimal)
1	SWilliams	1	SWilliams	4.5
2	Halep	2	Stephens	9.0
3	Muguruza	3	KaPliskova	9.0
4	Wozniacki	4	Muguruza	9.0
5	Stephens	5	Sharapova	11
6	Keys	6	Keys	11
7	KaPliskova	7	Halep	15
8	Sharapova	8	Kvitova	15
9	VWilliams	9	VWilliams	15
10	Azarenka	10	Vandeweghe	17
11	Kvitova	11	Konta	17
12	Vandeweghe	12	Azarenka	19

12 Nov 2017

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, I do not expect Muguruza to win two slams in 2018, despite listing her the favourite for two of them.  I think Muguruza will probably win one, and Serena will win one or two.  Then I think Halep, Sharapova, or Wozniacki have a chance at winning a slam, and it’s a slightly lesser chance that KaPliskova, Keys, or Kvitova will win one.  I also think there’s a better chance we will have a new slam winner in 2018, as we have for 17 of the last 21 years.  I also think there is a good chance Halep will finish #1 on the computer, but Serena will be player of the year in 2018.

2017 was a very unpredictable year that saw the crowning of two new slam winners, Stephens and Ostapenko. It also saw the rise of Muguruza, Halep, and KaPliskova to the uppermost echelons of the game.  Svitolina, Garcia, Barty, and Mladenovic made significant moves upward.  And Serena, set the open era record for slam singles titles, male or female, with 23.  Let’s hope 2018 is as exciting.