The confusing state of the Wimbledon ladies draw

The confusing state of the Wimbledon ladies draw

Serena is back!  … kinda…
Azarenka is back!  … sorta…
Sharapova is back!  … ish… 
Even two-time slam finalist Vera Zvonareva is back.

In their “absence”, Simona Halep, Caroline Wozniacki, and Sloane Stephens have legitimized themselves as slam champions. They are just three of the 14 active slam champions in the WTA.  So there are plenty of contenders for arguably the biggest title of the year at Wimbledon.  But a favourite is a little harder to nail down.

Favourites

Petra Kvitova is the bookies favourite.  She’s won the Big W twice before and leads the tour in titles won this year, with five.  She seems the obvious pick.  Except that she hasn’t been doing well at the slams.  She’s only made two slam quarter-finals in the 4 years since her last title, and her run of five consecutive deep runs at Wimbledon ended in 2014.  She hasn’t been past the third round at SW19 since then.  She seems to have developed a knack for folding when she’s expected to do well.  Her early draw isn’t too bad, but she could get Sharapova in the fourth round and Halep in the quarters.

What about the doyenne of tennis, Serena Williams?  There is no subtracting from her 23 slam titles including seven at Wimbledon.  But since coming back from motherhood she has not looked even close to dominant.  She’s won five matches total in three tournaments this year… a far cry from her usual excellence.  The Wimbledon seeding committee anointed her with just the 25^th seed. The bookies are a little more optimistic and put her second behind Kvitova, and some observers, no less than Martina Navratilova, are proclaiming her the favourite.

How Serena does will depend on how close she is to regaining full form.  She hasn’t really shown it this year, but she has come from far down before to claim a slam title out of nowhere.  She could run into fifth seed Elina Svitolina in the third round, and Madison Keys in the fourth.

Keys has been on fire at the slams of late, going runner-up, quarters, semis in her last three.  She has a huge hard-hitting game and could spell serious trouble for Serena.  If Serena can get through Keys, then I think she becomes the favourite for the title.  But if Keys should win their matchup I would favour someone else to take out Keys.

That someone could be Sloane Stephens.  As good as Keys has been, Stephens has been better, making two of the last three slam finals and claiming the 1000 in Miami.  I can see Stephens coming through her section to face one of three former #1’s Venus Williams, Victoria Azarenka, or Karolina Pliskova, or maybe up and coming Aryna Sabalenka in the quarter-finals.  It’s a nasty little section and Stephens appears to have the easier road.

Contenders

Surprisingly, world #2 and recent slam winner Wozniacki has never been past the 4^th round at Wimbledon despite two grass titles at Eastbourne.  Maybe this is her year.  She could have a tough third rounder with grass-loving Aggie Radwanska and a battle in the fourth against Coco Vandeweghe.  I’ll pick Aggie to come through but lose to Keys.

No analysis would be complete without mention of last year’s champ, Garbine Muguruza.  She’s already been in two Wimbledon finals and seems to find her groove on grass.  Her draw looks ok until the fourth where she could run into youngsters Daria Kasatkina or Ash Barty who recently took the grass title in Nottingham.

The quarters for Muguruza could bring up former finalist Angelique Kerber, world #6 Caroline Garcia, or maybe Indian Wells 1000 winner, ball blaster Naomi Osaka.  Of this lot, Kerber may be most likely to come through to the quarters and has proven chops on grass.  Till now Muguruza has struck slam gold only when she seems completely out of contention.  She just made semis of the French, is the defending champion at Wimbledon, and is the third favourite of the bookies.  So this may not be her time.  Of course that could be hogwash.  There is no question she is a significant threat for the Wimbledon title.

And finally, and certainly not least, is world #1 Simona Halep.  Halep has been in the quarter-finals her last two times here and in the semis in 2014.  Yet grass is not where she shines.  She could get an almighty tussle from hometown favourite Johanna Konta in the fourth round.  Should she survive, Kvitova is a likely quarter-final opponent.  It will be interesting to see what a newly confident and vindicated Halep can do, but I expect Kvitova will be too large a hurdle to cross.

Summary

In the quarters I’m taking Kvitova over Halep, Muguruza over Kerber, Stephens over Venus, and Keys over ARadwanska.  I think Kvitova, Muguruza, and Stephens have an almost equal shot at the title, but predict Kvitova claims her third Wimbledon over the newly vincible Stephens.  Of course, Serena could easily throw a huge wrench into that, but for now, I think she needs more time before reaching top form.

Odds from bet365.com on 27 June 2018

1	Kvitova	5
2	SWilliams	6.5
3	Muguruza	8
4	Kerber	13
5	Halep	13
6	Stephens	13
7	KaPliskova	15
8	Keys	15
9	Sharapova	15
10	Svitolina	21
11	Wozniacki	23
12	Konta	23
13	Barty	23
14	VWilliams	26
15	Rybarikova	26
16	Osaka	29
17	Kasatkina	29
18	Azarenka	29
19	Vandeweghe	29
20	Garcia	34
21	Goerges	34
22	Ostapenko	41
23	Kontaveit	41
24	Mertens	51
25	ARadwanska	51
26	Safarova	51
27	Sevastova	51
28	Makarova	67
29	Giorgi	67
30	Strycova	67
31	Cibulkova	81
32	Buzarnescu	81
33	TMaria	81
34	Sabalenka	81