Cracks at the top? ATP 2019 Summary and 2020 Preview

Cracks at the top? ATP 2019 Summary and 2020 Preview

A new generation of players has arrived near the top of the rankings to challenge the established Big Three of Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer.  With a combined age of 103, it is simply astonishing that these same three names are at the top of the yearend rankings twelve years after they first landed there, in 2007.  But what’s new this year are their primary challengers.

Last year’s ATP top 10 was proclaimed the tallest and oldest of all time, with only Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem in their 20’s.  But this year there are five players age 26 or younger – last year’s two plus Daniil Medvedev, 23, Stefanos Tsitsipas, 21, and Matteo Berrettini, 23.  When the Big Three, or more rightly, the Big Four, including Andy Murray, were first dominating, their primary challengers were the likes of Davydenko, Roddick, and Nalbandian.  A few years later, it was Del Potro, Tsonga, Ferrer, and Berdych.  More recently it has been Wawrinka, Cilic, and Nishikori.  Will the new guys be any more successful than the old lot?

But first, credit where credit is due, Wawrinka, Del Potro, and Cilic all succeeded on the slam stage.  But despite that, they did not challenge the upper echelon of the rankings.  In fact, no one outside the Big Four has been to #2 in the rankings since mid-2005, Lletyon Hewitt being the last, shortly after Nadal won his first slam.  That’s 14.5 years – which is like an eon in tennis.  Is there reason to suspect the new cadre can break that spell and succeed on the slam stage?

The most obvious answer is that the Big Three are getting old, and this can’t go on forever.  Irrefutable perhaps, but could the domination continue for another three or four years?  The evidence of this year suggests that it could.  The Big Three are strong, basically healthy, and continue to show a vigorous appetite for winning.  So they are not going to surrender easily.  But the new guys are strong, hungry, and presumably healthier, with time on their side.

They have also shown a proclivity for winning.  Both Thiem and Tsitsipas claimed at least one win over every member of the Big Three this year.  Zverev (who I usually designate AZverev to distinguish him from his brother, Mischa) has accomplished that feat over the last two years.  Medvedev (who I usually designate “DMedvedev” to distinguish from Andrei Medvedev, who made the 1999 French final), beat Djokovic twice this year.  These victories are pumping up these young players with confidence.  That has not yet meant success on the slam stage, but tension is building, the mood is changing, and the inmates are restless.

And these five aren’t the only young players knocking on the door.  Denis Shapovalov, 20, is up to #15 in the rankings.  Karen Khachanov, 23, is at #17; Alex de Minaur, 20, is at #18, Felix Auger-Aliassime, 19, is at #21, and Andrey Rublev, 22, is at #23.  And way down at #78 is 18 year-old Jannik Sinner, who has been making a name for himself this year.  In total, there are 28 players younger than 24 in the top 100.  Which of these young guns is most likely to be successful in challenging for the top?

The Story of 2019

In the two week run-up to the Australian Open, both Medvedev and de Minaur made tournament finals, a signal of things to come.  Medvedev led the tour with nine tournament finals in 2019, winning four.  De Minaur was not far behind, winning three from five finals.  Roberto Bautista Agut recorded the first of two surprising wins over Djokovic, in Doha.  RBA finally cracked the top ten this year, at age 31, finishing at #9.

	Titles	Finals	Points from finals
Nadal	4	5	7200
Djokovic	5	6	7100
DMedvedev	4	9	5050
Thiem	5	7	4950
Federer	4	6	4300
Tsitsipas	3	6	3200
AZverev	1	3	1150
de Minaur	3	5	1050

The sensation of the Australian Open was Tsitsipas’ victory over Federer in the fourth round.  What looked like an off-day for Roger and perhaps a flukey win for Tsitsipas, changed complexion as Tsitsipas backed it up with a trip to the semis, a 2-2 match record with Roger for the year, and an ascent to world #5 in August.  But Nadal dismissed the young Greek with the loss of only six games, straight-setting himself all the way to the final and a showdown with Djokovic.  Novak looked a little more vulnerable in dropping sets to both Shapovalov and Medvedev, so I anticipated a royal battle in the title match with Nadal favoured, since he had been invincible thus far.  However Djokovic was in rare form and demolished Nadal to the loss of 8 games, in what looked to be one of the best matches the Serb has ever played.

Juan Ignacio Londero had been playing mostly on the challenger circuit and had never won a tour match when he received a wildcard into February’s Cordoba tournament.  Shockingly, he strung together five wins to take the 250-level title.  By yearend he had risen to #50.

A week later at the 250 in New York, 23 year-old Canadian, Brayden Schnur, who like Londero had never won a tour match, made the final.  He fought valiantly, but ultimately lost in a third-set tiebreaker 9-7 to then-21 year-old Reilly Opelka who is listed at 6 foot 11 inches.  Understandably, Opelka’s serve is a severe weapon.  Surprisingly, he moves fairly well for his height and has a reasonable backhand.  With youth on his side he could have a bright future.

In mid-February, then-18 year-old Felix Auger-Aliassime made the first of three finals at the tour level.  He didn’t win any of them, but he shot up the rankings from #108 at the beginning of the year, into the top 20 by August.  It wasn’t long before 2019 was feeling like the year of the Canadian – with Felix’s new found success, Shapovalov claiming his first tour title and a spot in the top 15, Schnur’s surprising run, and of course Bianca Andreescu’s string of victories that culminated in a US Open title.  And let’s not forget promising junior, Leylah Fernandez, who made the final of the Aus Open junior event, and then took the junior title at the French.  Top it off with Canada making the Davis Cup final in November, and the future does indeed look bright for Canadian tennis.  If Vasek Pospisil, Milos Raonic, and Eugenie Bouchard can approach past highs, Canada could become a real powerhouse on the world stage.

In Acapulco Nick Kyrgios decided to concentrate on his tennis and pulled off a back-from-the-dead victory over Nadal in the second round with the usual theatrics.  The theatrics and a little under-hand serving prompted some angry sniping from Nadal.  But Kyrgios was in rare form, shook it off, and then notched victories over Wawrinka, Isner, and Zverev to claim the title.  It seemed Nadal, like everyone else, is baffled at why Kyrgios doesn’t regularly apply his talent, calling his m.o. “no respect.”

Djokovic’s loss to Philipp Kohlschreiber at the big 1000 in Indian Wells was a sign that while Novak could still get it up for a slam, he was not the invincible version of himself that terrorized 2015 and 2016.  After Nadal got injured in a quarter-final victory over Khachanov and gave a walkover to Federer in the semis, Roger was into the final for a third straight year.  Victory look probably over Thiem, even considering a 2-2 head to head, since Roger had claimed both matches on hard courts.  But Thiem clicked off the first of what were to be three straight victories over the Swiss Maestro in 2019.  It looks like Thiem has Fed’s number.

Undeterred, Federer marched to the Miami 1000 final and dismantled defending champion Isner there.  The two young Canadians, Shapovalov and Auger-Aliassime, made the semis.  Djokovic’s woes continued when he lost a second time this year to RBA.

The surprises continued at the 1000 in Monte Carlo, when Djokovic suffered his first loss to Medvedev, and Nadal went down for the fourth time in his career to Fabio Fognini.  Fognini claimed his first 1000 title a few days later.

After Thiem beat Nadal in Barcelona, and Tsitsipas took Nadal out of Madrid, Nadal entered Rome with no titles for the year, the longest he has had to wait since he first began winning them in 2004.  All the more remarkable then, how Nadal turned his year around.  While Thiem was ultimately successful in Barcelona, Tsitsipas lost the Madrid final to Djokovic.  Meanwhile Matteo Berrettini announced himself by making two 250 finals, claiming the one in Budapest.  Tsitsipas won his second title of the year, in Estoril, and the Rome final came down to Nadal and Djokovic.  The internet commentariat had been running wild with predictions of Nadal’s demise and certainty for a non-Nadal French Open champion.  But as Nadal punctuated the final point in a 6-1 in the third victory over Djokovic in Rome, he jumped from warm under-dog to massive favourite.

And Nadal did not disappoint.  Federer returned to Roland Garros for the first time in four years and made the semis, where he lost a well-played straight-setter to Nadal in a howling wind.  On the other side of the draw, Dominic Thiem staged a mighty semi-final battle against Djokovic, taking the Serb down 7-5 in the fifth.  That put Thiem into the final for a second straight year, and a fourth straight in the semis or better.  He managed to win one more set than last year in the final, but still lost the last two 6-1, 6-1 to go down in four.  Nadal claimed a mind-boggling 12^th Roland Garros trophy, the all-time record for singles titles at one slam, besting Margaret Court’s 11 Aus Open titles – many of which were won over weak fields.  I only wonder how many more Nadal can win?  He’s showing no signs of slowing down.  Three or more titles here would not surprise.

Berrettini showed he could win on grass as well as clay by taking the title in Stuttgart over Auger-Aliassime.  It was Felix’s third final of the year, one each on hard, clay, and grass.  Federer won his 10^th title at Halle, and the stage was set for Wimbledon.

Bautista Agut (aka RBA) had his best slam result by making the semis.  The other semi was a rematch of the French semi between Nadal and Federer.  Nadal got a set, but Federer looked firmly in control.  That set up what became a blockbuster final between Federer and Djokovic.  For the first time in history, a men’s slam final was decided in a fifth set tie-breaker.  Two women’s slam finals have come down to deciding set (third) tiebreakers, both at the US Open, both lost by Navratilova.  During the match Federer won four more games than Djokovic and 14 more points.  He often seemed to be in control and dictating play, but Djokovic held on and won all three of his sets in tiebreaks.  In the final set, Federer served leading 8-7 in games with a score of 40-15 – two matchpoints on his own serve.  But an error from Federer and a winner from Djokovic erased the chances, Federer was broken and they proceeded to a tiebreaker at 12 games-all, that Djokovic won without drama.

Moving to the summer swing on North American hard courts, Daniil Medvedev suddenly hit a streak of purple form, making the finals of all four tournaments he entered, losing to Kyrgios in Washington, to Nadal at the 1000 in Canada, and taking the 1000 in Cincinnati over Goffin.  At Cincinnati Kyrgios suffered a severe mid-match meltdown that generated a record $113,000 in fines.

Medvedev’s results propelled him to the fifth seeding at the US Open, and he happened to land in Djokovic’s quarter.  It looked ominous for Nole, who had already lost twice to Daniil.  But Djokovic lost to Wawrinka in the fourth round, retiring with an injured shoulder, his fourth loss to Stan on the slam stage.  Federer lost a five-setter to Grigor Dimitrov in the quarters, complaining of back pain.  It opened the way beautifully for Nadal who sailed into the final with the loss of only one set.  After Nadal took the first two sets of the final, it appeared all but over, but Medvedev dug in and forced a fifth.  Nadal’s tenacity and talent prevailed and he claimed his fourth US Open title and 19^th slam overall.

The victory added drama to the slam derby which Federer currently leads by a narrow margin.  It appears that Nadal and Djokovic are both still coming on strong so where this ends up is anyone’s guess.

Slam Derby	Open era slams		All era majors		All era majors, dual gender
Federer	20	Rosewall	23	Court	24
Nadal	19	Federer	20	Rosewall	23
Djokovic	16	Laver	19	SWilliams	23
Sampras	14	Nadal	19	Graf	22
		Djokovic	16	Wills	20
				Federer	20

Medvedev continued his winning ways in the yearend swing taking St. Petersburg and the 1000 in Shanghai, over a finally-awakening AZverev.  Andy Murray, mostly recovered from hip surgery, began a comeback, taking the 250 in Antwerp.  Denis Shapovalov won the first title of his young career at the 250 in Stockholm.  He also made the Paris 1000 final, which was won by Djokovic.  Federer won his 10^th title at the Basel 500, over Alex de Minaur, who took the 250 in Zhuhai.  De Minaur was runner-up at the NextGen Finals for the second year running, when promising 18 year-old Jannik Sinner soared to victory.

Dominic Thiem took the 500s in Beijing and Vienna and then surprised by beating both Federer and Djokovic at the Tour Finals (1500) in London.  With victories on hard courts both indoors and out in 2019 and five titles for the year, Thiem has become much more than a clay courter, and could threaten at a number of slams.  But in the Tour Finals he was beaten in the final by Stefanos Tsitsipas, who notched his third, and biggest, title of the year.

In a refurbished Davis Cup format that looks a whole lot like the old World Team Cup tournament, Canada, with outstanding performances from Shapovalov and a resurgent Vasek Pospisil, made a surprise run to the final to face hometown Spain in Madrid.  Nadal proved invincible throughout the week and claimed his fourth Davis Cup, the sixth overall for Spain.

Yearend Top Ten

It’s rare these days that I feel the need to second-guess the computer top ten, but it does happen in the odd year.  This is not one of them.  While there are five players 26 or younger in the top ten, this is still the third oldest yearend top ten since 1990.  Regardless, I believe the youths are coming on strong.

2019 ATP Rank	Player	2018 ATP Rank	Charles guess from end of 2018
1	Nadal	(2)	#3
2	Djokovic	(1)	#1
3	Federer	(3)	#4
4	Thiem	(8)	#10
5	DMedvedev	(16)	>10
6	Tsitsipas	(15)	#8
7	AZverev	(4)	#2
8	Berrettini	(54)	>10
9	Bautista Agut	(24)	>10
10	Monfils	(29)	>10

Prophecies!

I’m a lousy prophet, and not just because I don’t like camel- hair robes.  But that won’t stop me...

With the influx of young blood to the top ten, it appears things are finally shifting on the ATP tour.  But will that mean infiltration at the very top of the sport?  Federer certainly looked more vulnerable, taking only one 1000 title and no slams. It’s not too tough to imagine that he could be bypassed in 2020 by the hottest young hands, in particular, Thiem, DMedvedev, Tsitsipas, and AZverev.

Zverev is the most proven of the young challengers.  Since the Big Four era began, only Wawrinka and Zverev have won four tournaments at the 1000 level or higher.  He’s 4-3 against Federer, 1-5 against Nadal, and 2-3 against Djokovic, so he can beat the big players.  The rubicon he has to cross is success on the slam stage.  So far, he’s never made even a semi.  But this year he made the second week (at least fourth round) three times – a feat he had accomplished only twice before.  He’s still trending up, so a slam eventually, not necessarily in 2020, seems likely.

DMedvedev began to show promise when he nabbed two tournaments in the latter part of 2018.  His star rose dramatically this year with a slam final and four more titles.  He looked less stellar going down 0-3 in the round robin of the Tour Finals.  I expect he will rise again.  If he can re-capture this summer’s form he is sure to win multiple slams in the future. He led the tour in both match wins and tournament finals in 2019.  His age at 23 is not young and does not promise future dominance – a one- or two-slam career would be a great achievement.

	Match wins	Match losses	Win ratio
DMedvedev	59	21	2.81
Nadal	58	7	8.29
Djokovic	57	11	5.18
Tsitsipas	54	25	2.16
Federer	53	10	5.30
Thiem	49	19	2.58
AZverev	44	25	1.76

Dominic Thiem is 26 so not exactly young, but he is probably in his prime.  He’s already been in two French finals.  With four victories over Nadal on clay, a Roland Garros title seems within reach.  But Nadal still holds the balance in their head-to-head 9-4, and is extremely tough over best-of-five.  Against Federer, Thiem leads 5-2 and against Djokovic he trails slightly 4-6.  Thiem’s fine play on hard courts this year and titles in Indian Wells, Beijing, and Vienna suggest he could threaten at the Australian and US Opens.  It seems quite likely he will claim a slam in the next two years or so.

But for now, I think the most likely breakthrough will come from Stefanos Tsitsipas.  He has a varied game, good height at 6’4”, and good movement.  Plus, he can be quite aggressive and knows how to come to net successfully.  But most of all I like his attitude.  He seems neither intimidated or prideful, and he plays with a sense of belonging.  He believes he can beat the top guys.  For a second year he improved significantly and really made his presence felt at the top of the game.  He’s 2-2 versus both Federer and Djokovic, and 1-5 against Nadal.  With his victory at the Tour Finals, there are few higher rungs that do not include a slam victory.  I’d say he has about a 50-50 chance to claim a slam in 2020, about the same odds as Federer.

And there are other possible candidates that could break through.  Shapovalov had found a new gear at the end of the year.  His talent gives him room to climb higher. Berrettini seemed to grow in ability and confidence as the year progressed. At 6’5” he’s powerful and reasonably nimble.  His forehand is a weapon.  De Minaur won three titles and climbed to #18, but I’m not sure how much more he can get out of his game.  Andrey Rublev, 22, can beat just about anybody when he’s on.  Can he do it consistently?  Ditto, Karen Khachanov, 23.  Taylor Fritz, Reilly Opelka, and Hubert Hurkacz all made significant strides this year.

What’s baffling is that no player on the men’s tour born in the 1990’s has yet won a slam.  The women have crowned eight slam champs born in the 90’s and one from the 2000’s.  This cohort of 1990’s-born men is a full five years behind the next slowest cohort in claiming their first slam title – and that cohort was not recent, the 1880’s cohort.

There are teenagers born in the 2000’s to consider as well.  Felix AA blew expectations out of the water by making three finals and career high of #17 in October.  He’s got smooth strokes, excellent court coverage, decent height, and a calm demeanor.  But I question his competitiveness and belief that he can take down the top players.  Somehow he beats the players he should without ever scoring an upset.  Jannik Sinner has been very impressive in rising to #78 as an 18 year-old.  He has a surfeit of power with seemingly the right on-court mentality.  It’s too early to make predictions, but the signs so far are very encouraging.

At the end of the day I think Djokovic and Nadal are likely to hold the top two spots for another year, but it would not surprise me to see Federer drop a few ranking spots.  If he stops being in real contention for slam titles, one wonders how long Roger will continue to play.  He’s given no indication of throwing in the towel, so we should be able to enjoy him for at least another two years.

Slam Predictions

At the slams I consider Djokovic and Nadal the top two favourites at every slam, picking Djokovic for the Australian and Wimbledon, and Nadal for the French and US Open, just like this year.  I make Thiem a very close third at the French – maybe even second – and Federer gets my third billing at Wimbledon.  At the Aus and US Opens, Tsitsipas is my third pick, with Fed, Thiem, and Medvedev very close behind.  It will be interesting to see what form Andy Murray can achieve by Wimbledon, and how Wawrinka fares at Roland Garros.

The bookies top five for the Australian are Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Medvedev, and Tsitsipas.  At the French they are Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem, Murray (really?), and Tsitsipas.  At Wimbledon they have Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, Murray (slightly more believable here), and Tsitsipas.  And for the US Open they list Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray, and Medvedev.  Clearly they are expecting a full comeback from Andy Murray.

Top Ten for 2020

Nadal has looked solid as a rock the last two years.  The only minor holes in his resume are a Tour Finals title, and one at Miami, and plugging those gaps is certainly possible.  He’s had only 11 losses in the last two years.  He looks stronger than ever.  Even a Wimbledon title is within reach.  I’ll expect him to eclipse Federer’s 20 slams in 2020 or shortly thereafter, and he should top even Serena and Margaret Court in three or so years.  The man is a tennis machine.  He may not have as much raw talent in his hands as Federer, but he gets everything out of what he has.  He’s got one of the best tennis brains ever, with ferocious mental strength.  He’s also deadly quick, and has extraordinary ball and hand skills.  He seems to be the most-challenging player for the young guns to play – the hardest to get a win from.  People have been saying for years that his body will break down and he’s about to retire, but I see no evidence of that.  Rather I think he will continue to dominate for several years and will win the so-called GOAT race.  I do wonder how he would deal with being #1 two years in a row – something he has never done.  He seems to prefer the underdog role.   By achieving #1 in 2019, he joins Federer and Djokovic in claiming five yearend #1’s.  Who will be first to six?

Djokovic was brilliant at times in 2019, especially in claiming the titles in Melbourne and Wimbledon.  But he had some off moments as well.  What’s clear is that he is not the all-powerful suppressor he was in 2015-16.  I expect him to keep notching up slam titles – his primary focus.  He may catch Federer, but I think he will run out of steam before Nadal does.  It may depend on how much Djokovic’s motivation is the proverbial chip on the shoulder and the desire to prove himself.  He led the tour with five titles in 2019 (tied with Thiem), but I don’t think he will return to the 7-to-11-title-per-year form that characterized his prime.

Tsitsipas has impressed me greatly this year.  He may not have won as many titles as Thiem or Medvedev, but I think he may have more untapped potential.  He looks hungry and focussed.  Will he suffer from the seeming Tour Finals curse – a next season crash – that has plagued the last three winners?  I think not, because I don’t see him as satisfied with his current position in the tennis constellation.

I think Federer has begun a slow decline.  Whatever revitalized him so spectacularly in 2017 has passed.  He should still threaten at Wimbledon, and he may claim a 1000 title somewhere, but it seems 500 titles are more his speed these days.  He won three in 2019.  This is not to say that he will never rise up again.  On his day, he can still play the best tennis in the world – but those days seem to be getting farther apart.  This is probably his last chance to claim a singles gold at the Olympics, but I suspect Djokovic, who also does not have one, will take that.

Thiem was simply outstanding this year, claiming five titles, three wins over Federer, two over Djokovic, and one over Nadal.  He has never shown the week in, week out consistency of the Big Four, but I expect he will reach some significant highs next year that will compensate for that.

Alexander Zverev dropped a little in 2019, claiming only one title on the year.  He is no longer the top-ranked young challenger.  I think that fact will take some of the pressure off his shoulders and allow him to continue to improve.  With four other 20-somethings in the top ten, expectations of the public will be less focused on him.  Another 1000 title, a few other titles, and getting to a slam semi are what I expect.

Daniil Medvedev had a spectacular second half of the year.  I don’t expect he will play consistently at that level.  His best tennis is not dissimilar to Djokovic’s:  basically a backboard with excellent court coverage.  He seems less likely to hit outright winners than a series of penetrating, increasingly uncomfortable shots for his opponent.  It’s effective.  Gaining a slam in 2020 is in the 10-25% probability by my estimation.

Berrettini made dramatic progress this year.  I see his game as more offensive than defensive.  That usually means greater highs and lows.  It might net him a slam someday, but I don’t know if a consistently high ranking is in the cards.

Kei Nishikori had a decent year at the slams, with the fourth highest slam rounds gained in 2019, and the seventh most slam points. His game is still potent, and if he stays healthy he should remain in the top ten.

2019 slam singles	Rounds gained*	Total points
Nadal	29	5920
Djokovic	26	4900
Federer	22	2460
DMedvedev	15	1480
Thiem	11	1265
Bautista Agut	15	1180
Nishikori	18	1170

* 1r=1, 2R=2, 3R=3, 4r=4, QF=5, SF=6, RU=7, W=8

There is a large contingent of contenders vying for the 10^th spot in my projected top ten for 2020.  Here they are, from the bottom, up.  Juan Martin Del Potro is training again.  The slam champion and former #3 is always dangerous when he plays.  I suspect he will return slowly and struggle to stay healthy.  After five years mostly in the top 10 and ten years mostly in the top 20, Marin Cilic dropped precipitously to #39.  He has some serious talent, as the 2014 US Open title attests, but I’m not sure he will find his way back. Felix Auger-Aliassime made huge improvements in 2019.  I have a feeling he will stay about where he is for another few months while he figures out if he can play at a higher level.  He’s struggled with double faults and beating players ranked above him.  John Isner has been in the yearend top 20 for each of the last 10 years.  The only other players who can match that are the Big Three.  He seems to thrive in Miami, Atlanta (5 titles), and Newport (4 titles).  Should be enough to keep him in the top 20 for another year.  Reilly Opelka is even taller than Isner but seems to have a better backhand and movement.  Not sure he will get to the top ten in 2020, but he should make it someday.  Fabio Fognini finally made the top ten in 2019, accumulating nine weeks there.  He has a world of talent, although I don’t see why he would use it any more wisely in 2020 than he has in the past. Andrey Rublev may be poised for a breakthrough.  He’s near his career-high rank of 22, and if he stays un-injured looks like he could improve it a fair bit. He still has things to prove.  Grigor Dimitrov emerged suddenly from a prolonged slump with semi-finals at the US Open and in the Paris 1000.  Will he play more consistently in 2020?  David Goffin has somehow snuck into the #11 position for 2019.  After playing a challenger in March, he won 10 matches on grass, including quarters at Wimbledon, and then made the 1000 final in Cincinnati.  I think he will struggle to stay in the top 20 as the youth brigade of larger and more powerful players continues to emerge.

Milos Raonic struggled to get matches in 2019, constantly beset by injury.  He made semis in Indian Wells, quarters at the Australian, and fourth round at Wimbledon, so he can still play at a high level.  He could make it back to the top ten if he can stay healthy.  But will he?  Karen Khachanov looked on the cusp of a break-through last year when he stormed to the Paris 1000 title.  That may have been his ceiling – hard to say – he is still only 23.  He has size and some serious power on his side.  Alex de Minaur is only 20 and ranked #18.  He is a thorough counter-puncher and I’m not sure how much more he can get out of his game.  He’s not large, but he has lots of time to develop more weapons.  Gael Monfils had his second top ten finish this year.  At age 33 he probably won’t improve much more, but he has gotten a little better at marshalling his immense talent. Stan Wawrinka had some strong moments in 2019, making quarters at both the French and US Opens, and taking out Djokovic and Tsitsipas along the way.  He made two tournament finals, losing them both.  It feels like he hasn’t completely regrouped from injury but that he is very close.  I’ll expect 2020 will be stonger.  It will be interesting to see what Andy Murray can do with his comeback.  He claims the surgically repaired hip is causing him no issues.  Although he did pick up a 250 title in fall, he has looked very far from his highest level.  I think he will get quite near the top ten in 2020.  Hopefully he surprises me.  Roberto Bautista Agut had his best year at age 31.  After winning the 250 in Doha in January, he made the quarters at the Australian and semis of Wimbledon.  I think he will come close to the same level in the coming year.

However for 2020’s number ten I predict Denis Shapovalov.   He’s done his year kicking around in the 20s and 30s of the rankings, and is on the move upward.  He seemed to make a jump in level at the end of 2019, winning his first title, making his first 1000 final, and leading his country to the Davis Cup final.  Despite his moderate size, he blasts the ball.  It seems like he’s finally figuring out how to balance the power with margin.  I foresee big strides for him in 2020.

Here’s my predicted top 10 for 2020:

Yearend rank	2019
1	Nadal
2	Djokovic
3	Tsitsipas
4	Federer
5	Thiem
6	AZverev
7	DMedvedev
8	Berrettini
9	Nishikori
10	Shapovalov

Well there you have it, my thoughts condensed.  I’m sure the reality will be much more interesting than I have imagined.