Suddenly men’s tennis is back! It appears the players may be setting up a new player body to represent themselves, the Professional Tennis Players Association, or PTPA. There’s been a five month break in tour matches, The French Open has been postponed and Wimbledon has been cancelled, but the US Open is going forward and in its normal time slot.
For the most part, the players have shown up to play. The only notable contenders missing because of covid are Nadal, Wawrinka, and Monfils (is he a contender?). Federer is out, rehabbing from knee surgery. So this tournament deserves no asterisks, but the loss of Nadal, the four-time and defending champion, is significant. All of this makes Djokovic the heavy favourite. Or is he?
Top Quarter
Novak Djokovic (seeded 1) had moments of vulnerability against both Bautista-Agut and Raonic in the “Cincy” 1000 (the tournament was actually played at the US Open site in New York) this week. But despite five months of rust, recovering from covid, and a stiff neck, Djokovic kept his unbeaten record alive in 2020 and extended his current win streak to 26 matches. He claimed the “Cincy” title for the second time and is a two-time holder of the Masters 9000 (or “Golden Masters”), a feat that even Ivan Lendl cannot match. In short, Djokovic is looking reasonably invincible.
There’s an intriguing first round match-up between David Goffin (7) and Reilly Opelka. Opelka is on the rise and made the quarters in “Cincy”. He’s 6’11” and moves fairly well. He will be handful for anyone, including the consistent, foot-shorter Goffin. Denis Shapovalov (12) had been finding a new level but looked rusty in “Cincy.” John Isner (16) is also here and can do damage with his amazing serving.
Other players to watch: Pablo Carreno Busta (20) made the semis here in 2017, Filip Krajinovic (26), and Jan-Lennard Struff (28).
Djokovic def. Opelka
Second Quarter
The top two seeds here are young dudes Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) and Alexander Zverev (5), ages 22 and 23, respectively. Zverev has a particularly brutal opener against 2017 runner-up, Kevin Anderson, who’s ranking has dropped due to injury. Their match is not unimaginable as a final. Zverev is loaded with talent, as a Tour Finals and three 1000 titles attest, but struggles at slams. Just this week, while hitting Andy Murray off the court, and with a late final set break, Zverev imploded mentally and handed the match to an opponent struggling with consistency. Such mental laxity is likely to compound, and despite finally making a slam semi on his 19th attempt, in Australia this year, the chances of Zverev ever claiming a slam title are starting to look increasingly remote. Until he wins one, Zverev is a contender for best player never to win a slam.
For Tsitsipas I have a sunnier view. He made a slam semi on only his seventh attempt and seems to have little problem staying mentally focussed or closing matches. He made semis in “Cincy” and should be in a good place mentally to challenge for the title with his rangy, athletic, and varied game.
Other players to watch: Diego Shwartzman (8), Christian Garin (13) – who had a fine start to the year, and Anderson.
Tsitsipas def. Zverev
Third Quarter
Matteo Berrettini (6) and Daniil Medvedev (3) are both age 24, coming into their prime years, and made the semis (or better) of the US Open last year. Medvedev pushed Nadal to a fifth set in last year’s final, and although he hasn’t seemed to have recaptured that form, he was solid in a quarter-final showing in “Cincy.” Berrettini lost a tough match to Opelka in “Cincy”, but his form in the exhibition season looked reasonable. His big game seems to do well at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Andrey Rublev (10) is also in this section. He had scintillating start to the year claiming two titles, and made US Open quarters in 2017. He could meet Berrettini in the fourth round.
Other players to watch: Grigor Dimitrov (14) – the former world #3 made semis last year but has struggled coming back from covid, Frances Tiafoe – I pick his flashy game to get by Dimitrov and face Medvedev in round four, and John Millman – who made the quarters in 2018.
Medvedev def. Berrettini
Bottom Quarter
Dominic Thiem (2) was in killer form, taking five titles in 2019, and making runner-up at both last year’s Tour Finals and the Australian Open, in January. Six months later that seems to have evaporated and he went out in the meekest of matches to Krajinovic in his first match at “Cincy.” His first couple matches look winnable and might allow him to play himself into form. If he can find that confidence, he is a serious contender for the title.
Former champs Marin Cilic (31) and Andy Murray are both in this quarter. Cilic seems far from the 2014 form that propelled him to the title. Murray is on the comeback trail, and looked reasonably solid physically but a bit rusty, in a decent run at “Cincy.” He just fired a warning shot through the press to his competitors claiming, “I have a very strong self-belief.” That may take him far.
Murray’s compatriot, Dan Evans (23), has been climbing this year and has an intriguing first rounder with Thiago Seyboth Wild, who claimed his first ATP tournament in February, at age 19, (he’s 20 now). Also 20 is Felix Auger-Aliassime (15) who made two ATP finals in February and is slated for a possible meeting with Murray in round two. Younger yet is Jannick Sinner, who turned 19 last week, and whom some insiders are predicting is a sure bet for the top ten. He has a tough first rounder against Karen Khachanov (11), a big bruising hitter who has mostly underperformed at slams.
Two of the best players in this quarter are seeded to meet in just the third round, Roberto Bautista-Agut (8) and Milos Raonic (25). Both nearly beat Djokovic this week, and both are in formidable form. I think Raonic has more game, but Bautista-Agut’s defensive skills, basically a mirror of Djokovic’s, will severely test Raonic (should they meet). I think Raonic’s pride will have taken quite a hit in his fourth 1000 runner-up performance to no wins, but a winning 5-0 head to head with RBA should salve the Canadian.
Other players to watch: Tennys Sandgren – two quarters at the Aus Open and opens against RBA, Alex de Minaur (21), Richard Gasquet, Sam Querrey.
Raonic def. Thiem
Semis
The bottom quarter is the diciest for me and I could easily see Thiem, Bautista-Agut, or even Murray making it to that semi. I think Tsitsipas might be the second best player in the tournament, but it’s Medvedev who is seeded for a final meeting with the top seed.
Djokovic def. Tsitsipas, Medvedev def. Raonic
Final
Djokovic def. Medvedev
Expert Picks
Djokovic – 9 picks – Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Mats Wilander (Tennis 365), 7 from tennis.com – Steve Tignor, Nina Pantic, Ed McGrogan, Joel Drucker, Steve Flink, Matt Fitzgerald, Jordaan Sanford
Tsitsipas – 1 pick – Cale Hammond (tennis.com)
Odds
Decimal odds from oddschecker.com on 29 Aug 2020
|
1 |
Djokovic |
1.72 |
|
2 |
Medvedev |
6 |
|
3 |
Tsitsipas |
7 |
|
4 |
Thiem |
8 |
|
5 |
Raonic |
17 |
|
6 |
Bautista Agut |
21 |
|
7 |
AZverev |
21 |
|
8 |
Rublev |
23 |
|
9 |
Berrettini |
29 |
|
10 |
Murray |
41 |
|
11 |
Shapovalov |
51 |
|
12 |
Goffin |
67 |
|
13 |
De Minaur |
67 |
|
14 |
Cilic |
81 |
|
15 |
Auger-Aliassime |
81 |
|
16 |
Anderson |
81 |
|
17 |
Isner |
81 |
|
18 |
Khachanov |
81 |
|
19 |
Krajinovic |
81 |
|
20 |
Dimitrov |
101 |
|
21 |
Schwartzman |
101 |
|
22 |
Coric |
101 |
|
23 |
Opelka |
101 |
|
24 |
Struff |
101 |
|
25 |
Millman |
101 |
|
26 |
Fucsovic |
101 |
|
27 |
Evans |
151 |
|
28 |
Querrey |
151 |
|
29 |
Carreno Busta |
151 |
|
30 |
Sinner |
151 |
|
31 |
Edmund |
151 |
|
32 |
Gasquet |
151 |
|
33 |
Hurkacz |
151 |
|
34 |
Tiafoe |
151 |
|
35 |
Umbert |
151 |
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