Is Djokovic the GOAT? – ATP 2020 and Predictions for 2021

 

In this abbreviated tennis year due to covid, Novak Djokovic is the clear number one.  It marks his sixth year as number one on the ATP computer, a record he shares with Pete Sampras.  And along with Novak’s many records it prompts the question of whether or not he is the greatest ever. 

For many tennis fans, the slam title derby is the de facto Greatest Of All Time determinant.  And Djokovic has only 17 slam titles compared to 20 by both Nadal and Federer.  However the slams are not the only tennis that counts, and many of the greatest players throughout history have made their greatest accomplishments outside of the slams.  On the current tours the slams are the most important tournaments to win.  But regardless, Djokovic has some significant accomplishments that could elevate him above Nadal and Federer into GOAT consideration.

For example, he has been the dominant player of the last ten years – a length of time that neither Nadal nor Federer can claim.  During those ten years, Djokovic has been named yearend #1 by the ATP computer six times (Nadal and Federer have five each), and his record makes an arguable case for three more, or nine total years as #1.  Those three extra years are: 2013 when the ITF named him #1, 2016 when he won two of four slams and became just the third man in history (and the first in 47 years) to hold all four slam titles simultaneously – a non-calendar slam, and 2019 when he won two of four slams and held the computer #1 for all but nine weeks of the year.

This dominance shows up in Djokovic’s tally of weeks at computer #1.  At year’s end he will have 301 weeks, just nine short of Federer’s male record 310 – a record it appears Djokovic will inevitably break shortly into the new year.

Djokovic also has a greater breadth of titles than Federer or Nadal.  All three have won a lot of Masters 1000 titles, Djokovic leads slightly over Nadal (36 vs 35).  But Djokovic has won all nine different Masters 1000 shields at least twice, whereas both Federer and Nadal have only won seven each.

If Djokovic does surpass Nadal and Federer in slam titles, there will likely be little dissent in considering him the GOAT. But even if he does not, the way he has dominated these two legends – owning a winning head-to-head over both (currently 29-27 over Nadal, 27-23 over Federer), scooping up the most slam titles in the last 10 years, and being the dominant player of the last decade when all three have been playing – means he may already be the GOAT.  But enough of conjecture...

 

The story of 2020

The year started with the launch of the new $15 million ATP Cup, team competition.  Close on the heels of the Davis Cup and Laver Cup, one wonders if all three of these team competitions are viable.  It was won by Serbia – led by Novak Djokovic.

In more traditional tournaments, Andrey Rublev won the first two of the year – in Doha and Adelaide.  It was a sign of things to come.  Even in this abbreviated year, Rublev led the tour by winning five titles, all the finals he played.  His best were three 500-level titles.

Player	2020 Titles	Total finals	ATP points from finals
Djokovic	4	5	5700
Thiem	1	3	4200
Nadal	2	2	2500
DMedvedev	2	2	2500
AZverev	2	4	2300
Rublev	5	5	2000
Schwartzman	0	3	900

 

His many titles propelled Rublev to a yearend #6 in the Race rankings, and #8 in the adjusted ATP rankings.

Djokovic won the Australian Open in what would become a 29-match win streak – 40-match streak in matches he completed.  This lifted him to 17 slam titles and led to speculation that he would catch Nadal (then at 19) before year’s end.  But fate had other plans.

Both Gael Monfils and Christian Garin won two titles in February.  When, in the first two months, title-winners included Ugo Humbert, Kyle Edmund, Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Reilly Opelka, and Thiago Seyboth Wild, it appeared that the youth brigade was going to make a strong statement this year.

February closed with Nadal winning the 500 in Acapulco and Djokovic taking the 500 in Dubai.  And then came the covid shutdown.  Federer announced he was injured and didn’t play again all year. Many players tried their hands at World Team Tennis or exhibition tours – some of which were ill-fated to suffer covid outbreaks.

The tour resumed with the Cincinnati 1000 tournament which was actually played at the US Open site in New York. This allowed the creation of a bubble at the site for the players who then continued on into the US Open.  Djokovic won his second Cincinnati title, over Milos Raonic, and entered the US Open on a 26 match undefeated streak, a heavy favourite for the title in the absence of defending champ Nadal.

Vasek Pospisil and Djokovic announced the creation of the Association of Professional Tennis Players – a new players’ union to strengthen player representation (including, hurriedly, women).  The duo alleged the current ATP structure is too biased towards tournaments and not players.  It remains to be seen if anything will come of this venture.

So perhaps Djokovic’s mind was not fully on tennis when he carelessly struck a ball during his fourth round US Open match that caught a lineswoman in the throat.  Djokovic was defaulted and tennis fandom was rewarded with the guarantee of a new slam winner for the first time in 6 years (since Marin Cilic, 2014).  This is the longest gap between new slam winners since 1887.  At that time the US Open and Wimbledon weren’t properly considered majors – a concept that began in modern form in 1923.  Herbert Lawford ended the six-year domination of William Renshaw at Wimbledon 1887.  There was one longer gap on the women’s tour – seven years for Steffi Graf to succeed Hana Mandlikova as the next first-time slam winner, a time when Evert and Navratilova were dominating.

The final came down to Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev.  Thiem had nearly taken the Australian Open final from Djokovic, holding a two-sets-to-one lead.  It was Thiem’s fourth slam final but he had improved his performance in each one.  Could he go all the way?  Meanwhile Zverev had finally made his first slam semi-final, at his 19^th attempt, in Australia.  Now, at the US Open he supplanted Daniil Medvedev as the most recently-born man to make a slam final.  Zverev started the match freely, while Thiem was a nervous wreck.  Zverev went up two sets with an early break in the third.  But then the players’ levels converged and Thiem slowly toughed it out, taking the title in a fifth set tiebreak – the first fifth set tiebreak in a US Open final.

And so at last we have a male slam winner born in the 1990’s. It took 30 years since the 90’s began before we saw it produce a slam winner.  The previous longest wait was 25 years, for the 1880’s to produce a slam winner – a time before the concept of ‘slams’ existed.

Djokovic resumed his winning ways by taking the Rome 1000 over Diego Schwartzman who had beaten Nadal in the quarters.  With no losses in completed matches for the year, many speculated that Djokovic was the favourite for the French Open title in early October.  But Nadal sailed through the draw without losing a set, including a 6-0 blitzing of Djokovic in the final’s first set. Nadal is the male leader in slams won without dropping a set.

Player	Slam titles without losing a set*
Nadal	4
Borg	3
Federer	2
Trabert	2
Budge	2

* Since 1922 when the challenge round was abolished

The ATP then created a two-week bubble in Cologne that enabled Zverev to take two 250’s there, one each over Schwartzman and Felix Auger-Aliassime.  It was the third final of the year for each runner-up, with no successes for either.  Auger-Aliassime has now appeared in six ATP finals without a win.

Nineteen year old Jannick Sinner made his presence known at the Italian Open when he took out Tsitsipas.  He was then one of only two men, along with Schwartzman, to push Nadal to a tiebreak set at Roland Garros.  Sinner proceeded to pick up his first career ATP title, other than the zero point Next Gen Finals he won last year, at the 250 in Sofia.  Indications are he will have a bright future.

After a breakout year in 2019, Daniil Medvedev was making a fairly moderate showing until his last two tournaments of the year.  He took the Masters 1000 in Paris over Zverev, and then roared through the ATP Finals without dropping a match, taking out all three of the year’s slam winners: Nadal, Djokovic, and Thiem in the final.

 

Year End Rankings

Normally the ATP rankings consider all results over the previous 12 months.  Meanwhile, the Race rankings consider only what has occurred during the current calendar year.  This means that at the end of the year, these rankings converge.  But the ATP modified their ranking system this year so that for all tournaments after February, a player will keep the best result from the last two years.  This means that even though Federer played only one tournament in 2020, his 2019 results carried forward and he dropped to only #5 in the world, instead of to #28 where he finished in the Race rankings.  The result is that the ATP yearend rankings tend to hurt those who improved their results in 2020.

I believe that the yearend rankings should reflect only what has occurred during the year, so for 2020 I adopt the yearend Race rankings as my own.

Charles’ ranking		2020 Race	Race points	My prediction from 2019	ATP 2019 ranking	ATP 2020 ranking
1	Djokovic	1	6855	2	2	1
2	Thiem	2	4615	5	4	3
3	Nadal	3	4050	1	1	2
4	DMedvedev	4	4025	7	5	4
5	AZverev	5	3455	6	7	7
6	Rublev	6	3425	20	23	8
7	Tsitsipas	7	2495	3	6	6
8	Schwartzman	8	2220	29	14	9
9	Raonic	9	1725	17	31	14
10	Carreno Busta	10	1675	30	27	16

 

In the race, Thiem finishes at #2, ahead of Nadal.  This seems reasonable to me since Thiem made two slam finals and was runner-up at the Tour Finals.  Zverev gets #5 in the Race, reflecting his two titles and deep runs at the slams.  Tsitsipas did not garner particular attention this year, taking only a small 250 in Marseille.  But he was solid throughout the year, making the semis at the French for the first time.  Schwartzman made semis at the French in addition to his three finalist showings.  Carreno Busta made the semis at the US Open and quarters at the French in the same year for the second time in his career.  He got an assist when Djokovic was defaulted to him at the US Open.

 

A look into 2021

It’s possible that Djokovic won’t win any slam titles in 2021, even though he’s won at least one slam in nine of the last ten years.  Despite his current #1 ranking, his avowed hunger to overtake Federer and Nadal in the slam race, and his 29- (or 40-, without the default) match win streak, Djokovic looked vulnerable to me in 2020.  He barely beat Thiem in Australia, and he was thoroughly outclassed by Nadal at Roland Garros.  The US Open is not his strongest event, but Wimbledon is where Djokovic may still be the clear favourite.  None of the up and comers have had deep runs on Wimbledon’s grass.

But Rafael Nadal has.  And although he won’t be the favourite for the Wimbledon title, he is the favourite for the French.  At the end of 2020, Nadal is still the world’s best on clay.  He didn’t play much on other surfaces in 2020, but he is likely no worse than second or third in the world on any surface.  Titling at any of the slams is a possibility for him.

Along with Thiem’s assault on the top in 2020, both Zverev and Medvedev look ready to join the slam winner’s circle.  Both made significant improvements this year and, if Djokovic and Nadal waver at all, will be ready to swoop in for the spoils.  Tsitsipas is just a step behind them.  Federer should stay near the top in 2021 if his recovery from knee surgery goes to plan.  I also expect Rublev to continue his winning ways in 2021, maybe finding his way to a semi-final at the slams, where so far he has accumulated three quarter-finals.

That’s eight players, so to round out my top ten I will take 19-year old Sinner.  He has all the makings of a big time player, with attention-grabbing power, good wheels, and a focused mental game.  He is at a career-high #37 right now, so will need to make some big strides to fulfill my prediction.  For my predicted #10 I will take a Canadian, neither Shapovalov nor Auger-Aliassime, but old faithful Raonic.  He continues to make deep runs when he plays.  Hopefully he stays healthy.

Charles yearend top ten prediction for 2021
1	Djokovic	The default pick to win any match
2	Nadal	The king of clay
3	Thiem	Should continue to reap rewards
4	DMedvedev	Hungry and improving
5	AZverev	Made strides in 2020
6	Tsitsipas	22-year old is still getting better
7	Federer	Will be slowed by age and rehab
8	Rublev	Impressive gains with room for more
9	Sinner	19-year old has youth and talent on his side
10	Raonic	Still solid

 

While I’m predicting, my guesses for numbers 11-20 are Carreno Busta, Shapovalov, Schwartzman, Bautista Agut, Goffin, Nishikori, AugerAliassime, Wawrinka, Dimitrov, and Coric.  For the very speculative 21-30 spots I’ll take Opelka, Berrettini, Ruud, de Minaur, Davidovic Fokina, Fognini, Cilic, KAnderson, Isner, and Fritz.

Australian Open 2021

When it comes to picking the favourites, putting odds on the page, it’s pretty tough to pick against Djokovic at Melbourne Park where he’s won eight times.  Thiem gave him a stern test last year, and Nadal has been to the final five times... not to mention six-time winner Federer.  So my picks are Djokovic over Nadal, with Thiem and Zverev for the semis.  In the quarters I’d guess Medvedev, Federer, Tsitsipas, and Rublev.  The bookies give the lowest odds to Djokovic, then Nadal, Thiem, and Medvedev.  Nick Kyrgios gets their #9 spot.

Roland Garros 2021

It’s impossible to pick against Nadal on Paris’ red clay, the question becomes whether Djokovic or Thiem is second best.  I think Thiem was still in a slam-hangover this year so I’ll pick him to make a third French final with Djokovic third.  Zverev rounds out my semis, and I pick Tsitsipas, Federer, Sinner, and Schwartzman for the #5-8 slots.  The bookies pick Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem, and Tsitsipas in that order.

Wimbledon 2021

Nadal made semis at the last two Wimbledons and is a five-time finalist, but Djokovic has won there five times and is the two-time defending champ.  If there’s anywhere that Federer has a chance at a slam it is at Wimbledon, so remote though it is, I’ll take him as my third favourite behind Nadal.  My fourth pick goes to former finalist Raonic.  After that my picks are Cilic, Bautista Agut, Kevin Anderson, and Andy Murray who has made at least quarters the last ten times he’s played Wimbledon.  The bookies’ picks are Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Tsitsipas.

US Open 2021

Despite Djokovic being arguably the best current hard court player, it is Nadal who has four US Open titles to Djokovic’s three.  Something about the site favours Nadal so he gets my top billing with Djokovic second.  Third goes to the defending champ, Thiem, and fourth to the 2019 runner-up, Medvedev.  Fifth is last year’s runner-up Zverev. Federer hasn’t been to the semis in New York since 2015 but he is my #6, followed by Rublev and Tsitsipas.  The bookies have Djokovic, Thiem, Nadal, and Medvedev.

 

In summary...

I expect Djokovic to stay on top and continue compiling stats toward GOAT-dom.  Nadal seems likely to remain the best clay player.  Federer will likely struggle in the wake of age and rehab.  I expect Thiem, Zverev, Medvedev, and Tsitsipas will continue to assault the top and may claim some of the biggest titles.  And I think that Sinner will join the top ten on his way to becoming a top player.  If there’s any lesson from 2020, what really happens will probably be far different than I predict.