Wimbledon 2023 Men’s Draw

Is Novak Djokovic really invincible?  Or will the lesson Carlos Alcaraz learned at the French, and his recent title on grass, make him ready for revenge at Wimbledon?  Can anyone else challenge the top on grass?

 

First Quarter

Carlos Alcaraz managed to just sneak past Djokovic in the ranking points last week and claim the #1 seeding for Wimbledon.  Of course had Wimbledon counted for points last year, Djokovic would be far ahead, but either way, they wouldn’t meet until the final. 

The tennis commentariat has breathed a collective sigh of relief since Alcaraz’s title at Queens last week.  We knew Alcaraz was very good, we suspected his game translated well to grass, but we didn’t have proof. Now we know he can win on the surface.

But the beatdown he received from Djokovic at Roland Garros leaves some major question marks. While Alcaraz showed he can play at Djokovic’s level, the mental and physical strain necessary to do so brought on full-body cramps.  Either Carlos’ mentality or physicality, or both, could not withstand the onslaught.  At best, he will have learned from this – will have understood the lengths he must be prepared for to beat Novak at a slam.  But until he does so, I will believe that Djokovic has his number on the slam stage.  However, I think Carlos is still better than the rest of the field.

Also in this quarter is Holger Rune (seeded 6), who made the semis at Queens.  He’s young, feisty, and talented, and his grass court prowess is nascent and somewhat unknown.

Frances Tiafoe (10) has really matured in the last year, especially since his breakout victory against Nadal and run to the semis at the US Open last summer.  He took the grass title in Stuttgart two weeks ago, and could prove a worthy challenger to Alcaraz.

Alexander Zverev (19) had an admirable Roland Garros campaign to the semis, but even at his best, pre-ankle injury, Wimbledon was his least-accomplished slam.

Alex De Minaur (15) was runner-up to Alcaraz at Queens and made the fourth round here last year.  Former finalist Matteo Berrettini is unseeded and returning from injury, appearing in the first round against Lorenzo Sonego who beat him two weeks ago.  A run from Berrettini is unlikely, but his game does fit very well on this surface.

Alcaraz def Tiafoe

 

Second Quarter

There are some big doubts about Daniil Medvedev (3), top seed in this quarter.  On the one hand he’s had a great year, with five titles from six finals; but on the other is his lacklustre performance in slams this year, 2-2.  At one time he listed ‘grass’ as his favourite surface on the ATP website, but now that is clearly hard courts.  He has steadily improved at Wimbledon, making fourth round last time he played.  His draw is quite favourable, although Mannarino could be tricky in the second round.

Cameron Norrie (12) did well to make the semis here last year, even if the highest player he defeated was #32 Tommy Paul.   Paul (16) could face a returning Milos Raonic, 2016 finalist, in the second round, and Francisco Cerundolo (18) in the third.  Cerundolo claimed the grass title in Eastbourne this week.

Sebastian Korda (22) had an encouraging run at Queens, taking out Norrie and Tiafoe before falling to Alcaraz.  Andy Murray could meet Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) in the second round.  Murray has plenty of experience from two Wimbledon titles, but his recent form has not been encouraging. Tsitsipas has not demonstrated much ability on grass but in this softish quarter the main contenders are probably Stef, Korda, Cerundolo, Norrie, Paul, and Medvedev.

DMedvedev def SKorda

 

Third Quarter

French Open finalist Casper Ruud (4) is the top seed in this quarter. He’s only ever won one match at Wimbledon, but if there is a quarter he can take advantage of, this is it.  Former semifinalist Denis Shapovalov (26) is dropping in the rankings.  Borna Coric (13) hasn’t won a match here since 2015.  Roberto Bautista Agut (20) has made quarters and semis here in the past but is now 35 years old.

The other quarterfinalist could come down to Jannik Sinner (8) or Taylor Fritz (9).  Both made quarters here last year losing five setters to Djokovic and Nadal.  Both are having middling years, but really only need one good result to transform this year to a rousing success.  It’s hard to know which to favour of the two. Sinner has sterling ground strokes and excellent movement.  Fritz is better on serve, an important weapon on grass.  Should they play, their winner will be favoured for this quarter.

Sinner def Bautista Agut

 

Fourth Quarter

It’s hard to find enough superlatives to describe Novak Djokovic’s tennis accomplishments:  23 slam titles, 38 Masters 1000 titles, 389 weeks at #1, 7 Wimbledons.  But while his record at Wimbledon and recent form would be enough to make him the clear favourite for the title, he is aided by facing an inexperienced field. 

There is almost no one with any grass court pedigree in the draw.  The only other former champion here is Andy Murray, and he is far from his best tennis.  The last time someone other that the Big Four won at Wimbledon was more than 20 years ago.  There are only three other finalists in the draw: Raonic who has won only one match in the last two years, and Berrettini and Kyrgios, both of whom are coming of lengthy injury layoffs.  Most of the current top 20 have extremely limited grass court resumes.

It all points to one inevitable conclusion: an eighth title for Djokovic.  But this is sport and things can go wrong.  The pressure of the grand slam could weigh on Djokovic.  It could make him tight.  He’s such a heavy favourite he could become over-confident, and if things start to go wrong in a match he might put too much pressure on himself, make bad choices, or play sub-par tennis.  His victory is not a given.  And there is some talent in his quarter.

Hubert Hurkacz (17) is a former semi-finalist, Alexander Bublik (23) looked deadly last week in taking Halle, and Nick Kyrgios (30), despite no preparation, is absolutely deadly, especially on grass.  Kyrgios is one of the few players with a winning record against Djokovic: 2-1.  He could play into a form and threaten in the quarters.  And there’s a few other seeds that may want a say in proceedings: Andrey Rublev (7) hoping to break through the seven-times-a-quarterfinalist ceiling; Felix Auger Aliassime (11) having a sub-par year, and Lorenzo Musetti (14) who has pushed Djokovic in the past.

And then there’s a possible clash with Sinner in the semis – who was up two sets to love on Novak last year here, and of course the explosive talent of Alcaraz potentially in the final.  But on balance, the odds, the bookies, and the experts are firmly with Djokovic and the chance to complete the third leg of this year’s Grand Slam.  In the end, Djokovic’s biggest threat may come from within.  Can he hold his nerve?

Djokovic def Rublev

 

Semis

Alcaraz def DMedvedev

Djokovic def Sinner

 

Final

If Djokovic can pull this off he will equal Margaret Court atop the slam singles title count, and stand alone among men.  He will also be three-quarters of the way to a calendar year Grand Slam.

Djokovic def Alcaraz

 

Expert Picks

Djokovic (16):  Joel Drucker (Tennis Channel), Ed McGrogan (Tennis Channel), Steve Tignor (Tennis Channel), Todd Woodbridge (AO Panel), Stephen Boughton (The Slice), Alycia Molik (AO Panel), Wally Masur (AO Panel), Casey Dellacqua (AO Panel), Matthew Crist (gambling.com), Matt Fitzgerald (Tennis Channel), David Kane (Tennis Channel), Nicole Pratt (AO Panel), Simon Rea (AO Panel), Jon Levey (Tennis Channel), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Gill Gross (Monday Match Analysis)

Alcaraz (1):  Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis Channel)

 

Bookies Picks

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 30 June 2023

1 Djokovic 1.57 2 Alcaraz 4.33 3 Sinner 17 4 DMedvedev 21 5 AZverev 34 6 Rune 34 7 Fritz 34 8 Kyrgios 41 9 SKorda 41 10 Tsitsipas 51 11 AMurray 51 12 Tiafoe 67 13 Rublev 67 14 DeMinaur 67 15 Norrie 81 16 Hurkacz 81 17 Dimitrov 81 18 AugerAliassime 81 19 Shapovalov 101 20 CaRuud 101 21 Bublik 101 22 Berrettini 101 23 Paul 151 24 Bautista Agut 151 25 Raonic 201 26 Jarry 201 27 Coric 201 28 Mannarino 251 29 Lehecka 251 30 Isner 251 31 Griekspoor 251 32 FCerundolo 251