2024 French Open Men

 

I’ve long said, “never pick against Nadal at the French.”  Could this be the year?

Novak Djokovic is the youngest living man to have won a Roland Garros singles title.  With the emergence of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz it’s felt like we might be moving into a new era of dominant players.  Yet, this French Open title feels wide open.

There are eight men, by my count, that have strong chance to win.  Someone else outside this group could do it too, of course; but it would be a big surprise.  And all eight contenders have question marks and caveats hanging over their heads.

Novak Djokovic is the #1 seed and defending champ but he hasn’t won a title or even made a tournament final this year.  His losses have looked baffling, and after having a metal water bottle dropped on his head in Rome, there are suspicions he has a concussion.  With the field in disarray, normally Djokovic would be a shoo-in for favourite status at a slam.  But he hasn’t looked this weak since his year-and-a-half hiatus in 2017-18.

Jannik Sinner stormed to the Australian Open title and appeared to be in world-beating form racking up a 28-2 win-loss record for the year.  But a hip injury in Madrid had him pulling out of Rome and saying he was a maybe for RG.  He’s since committed to playing Paris, but with a previous best here of only the quarter-finals, he’s a lot dodgier a pick than I would have thought a month ago.

Carlos Alcaraz may have been a cramp away from the title last year.  He looked magnificent in taking the 1000 in Indian Wells in March, but exited Madrid with an arm injury and skipped Rome.  He proved he can do anything in tennis by beating Novak in the Wimbledon final last year, and clay seems a favourite surface for him. A few months ago he was my pick for this title, but now I question if his arm can hold up through seven matches.

Stefanos Tsitsipas had a shaky start to the year, but vindicated himself with a title run at the Monte Carlo 1000 and a runner-up at the Barcelona 500, both on clay.  With the rest of the top guys looking fragile, this former French finalist (2021) appears to have an open door.  But overall his year hasn’t been that convincing, and he floundered in Madrid and Rome, losing to Jarry and Monteiro, hardly encouraging.

Casper Ruud is in nearly the same boat as Tsitsipas.  He made the Monte Carlo final and won Barcelona, but then had early losses in Madrid and Rome.  He’s just today won a clay 250 in Geneva, although it was against second-rate competition.  He’s been a finalist at the French the last two years, so the conditions clearly suit him, but he’s never really succeeded on the biggest stages.  Is there any reason to think that has changed?

Alexander Rublev has been a quarter-finalist at the slams a record 10 times without ever going further.  It seems he his not cut out for winning big titles.  Yet he just took the 1000 in Madrid, his second 1000 title on clay.  If there ever was an opportunity for him to shine, surely it is now.

The last two of my big eight have the misfortune of facing each other in the first round this year.  Unless you’ve been under a rock, the shocking revelation that Alexander Zverev and Rafael Nadal are playing has turned the tennis world upside down.

After Zverev won the Rome 1000 last week, he seemed the form player and became the favourite of many for this year’s Roland Garros crown.  That favourite status was due both to his play and the question marks around the other top players, particularly, Djokovic, Nadal, Alcaraz, and Sinner.  But with none of these withdrawing from the tournament, the reasoning goes that at least one of them will have a chance to play themselves into decent form.  That makes Zverev’s favourite status a lot more uncertain, especially since he has not been known for mental clutchness at the business end of slams.

On the other hand, he has won an Olympic Gold, two Tour Championship trophies, and six Masters 1000 events, not to mention 11 wins over Federer-Nadal-Djokovic and 16 wins over Alcaraz-Sinner-Medvedev.  He’s clearly a top-tier player.  But then there’s the domestic abuse case hanging over his head that is set to start during this tournament.  Any mental distractions will not help him win matches.

And what to make of Rafael Nadal?  He’s looked far from convincing all year, posting 7 wins to 4 losses.  There were encouraging signs in Madrid and Rome where he gained four of the wins, but the losses to Lehecka and especially Hurkacz, were deflating.  Nevertheless, I think there is cause for hope in Nadal’s form. He’s looking stronger than at the beginning of the year, and he’s saying that he feels reasonably healthy.  Nadal is usually a pessimist about his chances, so when he starts to make noises that he is trusting his body, it is worthwhile to listen.

For his part, Zverev says that he is expecting to play a top-form Nadal.  He said that Nadal transforms when he is at the French.  The courts are familiar, the crowd is behind Rafa, and his game is ideally suited for the conditions.  If Nadal says he is healthy, watch out!

When I first heard about the impending duel between Zverev and Nadal, I immediately thought Zverev would win easily.  But with time to cogitate and with encouraging statements from Rafa, the outcome has become far less certain in my mind.  Nadal could find his best form, and Zverev could get into a mental funk.  I think the balance of probability still lies with Zverev, but where I once thought this was a 90-10 proposition, I now think it’s closer to 60-40.

And if Nadal does beat Zverev, imagine the possibility!  A 15^th French title would not be out of reach.

 

First Quarter

The best-of-five format with matches only every other day is surely the most favourable scenario for a top player in questionable form.  Best of five allows a player to warm up and work their way into a match if they start slowly.  And playing every other day with a large draw, means a seeded player has a few easier matches to find their form.  This may be the best hope for Novak Djokovic (seed 1) to work his way into this tournament, because he has looked mostly dreadful this year.  His 14-6 match record is actually fairly respectable for a top-ten player, but combined with zero titles is his worst start to a year since 2018 before the second and most productive phase of his career began.

His draw is favourable.  He could be challenged by Lorenzo Musetti (30) in the third-round or Tommy Paul (14) in the fourth, but he will have had time to warm-up by then.  A loss to either would not be an enormous surprise, but the probabilities favour Novak, I reckon.  Paul, in particular, has looked in good form on clay, making the semis in Rome.

This quarter also includes Taylor Fritz (12) and Casper Ruud (7), with a nod to Thomas Martin Etcheverry (28), who made the Lyon 250 final this week and made the semis in Barcelona.  Fritz made the semis in Madrid and the quarters in Rome.  He will not be a push-over.

Ruud may have to get through both Fritz and Etcheverry to reach the quarters.  In one iteration of my bracket I had Ruud beating Djokovic in the quarters, but I figure that if Djokovic makes it that far, he will have played himself into form.

Djokovic def CaRuud

 

Second Quarter

As I stated above, I think the odds are slightly with Zverev (4) over Nadal in their block buster first-rounder, but whoever wins the match will surely be favoured to take the quarter.  For good measure the winner of THAT first-round match could face Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.  That unknown name might not seem notable, but he is 20 years old, 6 foot 8, and just won the Lyon 250 yesterday.  It could get interesting.

The very-talented Holger Rune (13) is in this section and until recently would have been included in my top picks for this or any other title.  However he has stagnated this year.  I don’t doubt that he can rise again, for great is the depth of his talent, but this year I expect he will flounder against Karen Khachanov (18), if not sooner.

The bottom half of this quarter features Daniil Medvedev (5), one of the best players of the last five years.  Clay is not his favourite surface.  He could win his section, but clay aficionado Jan Lennard Struff who beat Fritz in the Munich 250 final is a strong contender as well.  As is Alex DeMinaur (11), who has been having a career year that saw him finally reach the top 10.

AZverev def Struff

 

Third Quarter

This quarter features three of my top eight contenders.  Stefanos Tsitsipas (9) and Andrey Rublev (6) could face off in the fourth round.  Although Rublev is currently higher ranked, Tsitsipas is the more natural clay-courter and has greater pedigree on this surface.

Ben Shelton (15) and Felix Auger Aliassime (21) could meet in the third-round, and it’s interesting to see Kei Nishikori’s name in the draw.  The former top-fiver and 2014 US Open finalist hasn’t played a slam match since 2021.

The big uncertainty in this section is around the kind of form that Carlos Alcaraz (3) will be in.  The official injury is listed as edema in the arm.  This essentially means swelling. It sounds minor, but it could be tennis elbow, which can be debilitating, or some other serious issue.  It’s hard to know and partially I suspect that Carlos was simply exercising abundant caution in the lead-up to this tournament.  If he is reasonably healthy I would probably revert to making him the favourite for the title.  But after the superlative run in Indian Wells in March he has looked out of sorts and I suspect the injury is at least of medium concern and not easily brushed aside.  His early matches should tell us what we can expect from his form.  In the face of uncertainty, and despite Alcaraz owning a 5-0 head-to-head over Stefanos,

Tsitsipas def Alcaraz

 

Fourth Quarter

Jannik Sinner (2) has been nothing short of spectacular this year.  He won the Australian Open in January, demolishing Djokovic in the semis.  He’s lost only twice all year, and one of those losses, to Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo, appeared likely to have gone the other way, were it not for a horrendous line-call against him.  But Sinner was equanimous in defeat, as he was in victory in Australia.  And this even-keel approach may be his greatest strength.

Well, in addition to his powerful ground-strokes, superb court coverage, and improved serve. You get the idea, the guy has few holes right now.  The biggest question is around his hip.  It’s hard to know if the issue was serious, but it did pull him out of Madrid and Rome.  On the other hand, given his cautious approach, if he’s decided to play, it likely means he’s in excellent physical condition.  I’m going with that and predicting that he will have a deep run.  If he makes the final here he will guarantee a world ranking of #1 after the tournament.  The other possibility is that if Djokovic doesn’t make the semis, Jannik can be #1 even if he doesn’t play a match.

Hubert Hurkacz (8) skewered Nadal in Rome with one of the most one-sided losses of Nadal’s career on clay.  Hubie’s not bad on clay… queue ‘faint praise.’ Grigor Dimitrov (10) has been having a decent year that has seen him re-enter the top 10 after a long absence, but again, clay is far from his best surface.

Alejandro Tabilo (24) has had a fairly unnotable career to date, but sprang to life this year with a 250 title in Auckland, a 250 final in Santiago, and semi-final appearance at the Rome 1000 that included a win over Djokovic.

Nicolas Jarry (16) made finals in Rome and Bueno Aires, including wins over Alcaraz, Ruud, and Tsitsipas.  No one will want to face him.  He could face Sinner in the fourth round.

JSinner def Tabilo

 

Semis

There are so many possibilities here: Ruud or Djokovic vs Zverev or Nadal, Tsitsipas or Alcaraz vs Sinner or Jarry.  In the end, I have to assume that anyone who is playing is reasonably healthy.  Nadal winning this tournament would both be, and not be, a shock. This is the tournament he’s won 14 times. But given the struggles both he and Djokovic have faced this year, it feels almost inevitable that a new champion will be crowned in two weeks.  But who will it be?  For the first day after the draw came out, I had Zverev winning my bracket.  But then I changed to Tsitsipas.  And now in the last few hours I’ve settled on…

AZverev def Djokovic

JSinner def Tsitsipas

 

Final

JSinner def AZverev

 

Expert Picks:

Alcaraz – 4

Joel Drucker (tennis.com), David Kane (tennis.com), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Ben (Game to Love)

Sinner – 3

Andy Roddick (Served), JG (Game to Love), Gill Gross (Monday Match Analysis)

Tsitsipas – 3

Stephanie Livaudais (tennis.com), Peter Bodo (tennis.com), Amy Lundy (Tennis Connected)

Djokovic – 1   Liya Davidov (tennis.com)

AZverev – 1   Steve Tignor (tennis.com)

Rublev – 1   Ed McGrogan (tennis.com)

Ruud – 1   Jon Levey (tennis.com)

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 25 May 2024:

1	Alcaraz	3.50
2	Djokovic	4.5
3	JSinner	5.5
4	AZverev	7.5
5	Tsitsipas	9
6	CaRuud	12
7	Nadal	21
8	DMedvedev	26
9	Rublev	26
10	Rune	29
11	Hurkacz	51
12	Dimitrov	81
13	Fritz	81
14	Jarry	81
15	TPaul	81
16	Tabilo	81
17	Baez	101
18	DeMinaur	101
19	Khachanov	101
20	FCerundolo	126
21	Struff	126
22	Auger Aliassime	151
23	Davidovich Fokina	151
24	Etcheverry	151
25	Musetti	151
26	Navone	151
27	Norrie	151
28	Shelton	151
29	Griekspoor	201
30	Machac	201
31	Marozsan	201
32	Perricard	201
33	Tiafoe	201