2024 French Open Women

 

Word among the pundits and commentators is that Roland Garros 2024 is Swiatek’s to lose.  She’s won three of the last four French Open’s and four 1000-level tournaments this year.  The bookies have her as a 1.61 (3/5) favourite for the title.  So is this an open and shut case? 

The primary contender is likely to be Aryna Sabalenka.  Sabalenka already won the Australian Open this year, and was finalist to Swiatek in the last two big tournaments, Madrid and Rome, both on clay.  In her runner-up speech in Rome, Sabalenka said she wanted to reverse the result in Paris.  If they reproduce the quality of their Madrid clash in which Swiatek saved three match-points, Sabalenka could well emerge with the first half of a Grand Slam for the year.

However, Elena Rybakina should not be neglected.  She doled out Swiatek’s sole loss on clay this year, and owns a winning head-to-head 4-2 over Iga.  And of course there’s current US Open champion and former French finalist, Coco Gauff, and her fellow-American Danielle Collins who has gone 19-2 (win – loss) in recent months.  Who will rise to the top?

 

First Quarter

The big news in Iga Swiatek’s (seed 1) early draw is a potential second-round clash with Naomi Osaka.  Osaka is a four-time slam winner but is still coming back after giving birth last year.  She has not thriven on clay and could have a tough go against Lucia Bronzetti in the first.  Former FO champ Barbora Krejcikova is nearby in the draw but after a quarter-final run at the Aus Open in January, has floundered and hasn’t won a match on clay this year.

Danielle Collins (11) announced she will retire at the end of the year over continuing struggles with health (in particular, endometriosis) and a desire to pursue other aspects of life.  Whether it’s because she’s healthier than ever or the promise of retirement has freed her up, she’s having a career year.  She surprised by taking the 1000 title in Miami and followed up with a clay title at the Charleston 500.  Until today, only Sabalenka had beaten Collins on clay this year, but she just lost a final to Keys.  Collins is the fifth favourite of the bookies, and a quarter-final clash with Swiatek will be appointment-viewing.

Before Collins gets there she may have to get past Marketa Vondrousova (5), who is surely one of the least predictable players.  Vondrousova is the reigning Wimbledon champion and made the final at RG in 2019 (loss to Barty).  She’s looked very unreliable since Wimbledon but recently made the semis in Stuttgart on clay, beating Sabalenka.  There’s no saying what Vondrousova might do.  A first-round loss or a title run are both possible.  But I’d give odds that Collins will emerge to face Swiatek.

Swiatek def Collins

 

Second Quarter

Coco Gauff (3) heads this quarter. She won a 250 title in early January but hasn’t been in another final since.  So it’s surprising that she has one of the best win-loss (W-L) records for the year 25-8, not far off Sabalenka’s 25-7.  She’s struggled since making semis in Australia and Indian Wells but found form last week in Rome, going out in two close-ish sets to Swiatek in the semis.  Swiatek is her nemesis, but Coco did finally beat her last year, so she knows she can do it.  If Gauff can keep her serve and forehand under control she’ll make a deep run.

There are some big hitters in her section, like Liudmila Samsonova (17), Beatriz Haddad Maia (13), and Amanda Anisimova.  The last two are both former semi-finalists at RG, but Gauff has great defensive skills and should squeak past them all.

The other part of this quarter is led by Ons Jabeur (8) and Jelena Ostapenko (9).  Jabeur is a three-time slam-finalist but has been a shell of herself since flaming out in last year’s Wimbledon final.  Ostapenko won this tournament in 2017 but her hit-for-the-lines-with-max-power style is rarely reliable.  If Ostapenko should bash her way through this section and face Swiatek in the semis, she’ll have reason for confidence since she owns a 4-0 record against Iga.  However she’s 2-3 against Jabeur and 1-2 against Gauff.

Also in this section is a potential second-rounder between former finalist Sophia Kenin and on-again-off-again French hope, Caroline Garcia (21).  Kenin has not refound the form that made her arguably the best player of 2020, and Garcia has resided at world #4 in both 2018 and 2023, but not in between.  Garcia seems to struggle at the French, although she did make quarters in 2017.

Leylah Fernandez (31) and Anhelina Kalinina both land near Jabeur in the draw.  Kalinina has been in two 250 semis this year and was the Rome 1000 finalist last year.  Fernandez is a former US Open runner-up.  If the seeds in this section start to fall, either could take advantage.

Gauff def Ostapenko

 

Third Quarter

Qinwen Zheng (7) added her name to the list of serious slam contenders when she made the final at the Australian in January.  She took a set from Iga at this tournament two years ago and is coming off a quarter-final loss to Gauff in Rome.  She’s dangerous.

Jasmine Paolini (12) won a 1000 title in February and is possibly still settling into the idea of being a top-16 player.  Bianca Andreescu returns to action after nearly ten months away.  She’s got a tough opener against clay-loving Sara Sorribes Tormo, whom Andreescu should spank under normal conditions, but I expect rust will prevent her. 

Returning after a year’s absence is Angelique Kerber.  This is undoubtedly her weakest slam, and the former world #1 and three-time slam champ has not looked in form this year.  Elina Svitolina (15) made a triumphant return (after giving birth) to slam play last year, making the quarters at RG and the semis of Wimbledon.  However she’s just 14-9 this year.  She’s been good on clay in the past, twice winning Rome, but there’s little to suggest a deep run is in the offing this year.  Former finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (20) should not go unmentioned, although she hasn’t looked particularly threatening of late.

And that leaves us with the biggest name in this quarter, Elena Rybakina (4).  The only player to beat Swiatek on clay this year, also beat her in last year’s Rome final, although, caveat, it was a retirement at 2-all in the third from Swiatek.  Still, Rybakina has a 4-2 record against Iga and was not beaten at last year’s French Open.  She withdrew without playing her third-round match with allergies, presumably to pollen.  And therein lies the crux: can Rybakina overcome the pollen?  If yes, she could take this title, if not, who knows.  Even if she stays healthy, beating Sabalenka and Swiatek back-to-back is by no means a given.  Rybakina COULD do it, it’s possible – but I’d put the odds at less than 50-50 against either player. Rybakina has made five tournament finals this year and her win-loss record of 30-6 is second only to Swiatek’s 38-4.

Rybakina def QZheng

 

Fourth Quarter

Maria Sakkari is the 6^th seed here, but somehow she really doesn’t seem like a threat.  She did finally win a 1000 event last year, so she should be a contender for any title, but the other top players feel miles ahead of her.  Someone who DOES feel like a threat is Madison Keys (14).  She’s lost only to Swiatek on European clay this year.  The draw would have her face the #2 seed in the fourth round.

There’s a snarly little section of the draw here that could see second round matches between Victoria Azarenka vs. Mirra Andreeva and Peyton Stearns (who just won a 250 this week) vs. Daria Kasatkina (10).  It’s anybody’s guess who might emerge from that cage fight to face likely Sakkari or Linda Noskova (27) conqueror of Swiatek in Melbourne.

Also here are former world #2 Paula Badosa, Sloane Stephens – a former runner-up at RG, and the ever-feisty Yulia Putintseva.  However, casting a significant shadow over all is Aryna Sabalenka (2).

Sabalenka seemed to struggle for form after claiming her second slam title in Australia, but she’s righted the ship and made the final of her last two tournaments.  She pushed Swiatek to the brink in a high quality Madrid final that saw both players at or near their peaks for most of the match.  But in the Rome final, Swiatek looked a class apart.  The Roland Garros clay and elevation is closer to Rome than Madrid, so it should favour Swiatek.  But such is Sabalenka’s determination and relentless pace off every ball that nothing can be taken for granted.  She stand’s above the field in my estimation, with one significant exception.

Sabalenka def Sakkari

 

Semi-finals

Swiatek def Gauff

Sabalenka def Rybakina

 

Final

Swiatek def Sabalenka

 

Swiatek is 51-4 on clay in the last three years. If she wins it would be Swiatek’s fourth RG crown and fifth slam title overall.  Sabalenka is gunning for her third slam title.  Other former slam winners in the draw are: Osaka – 4, Kerber – 3, Azarenka – 2, Rybakina – 1, Gauff – 1, Krejcikova – 1, Ostapenko – 1, Vondrousova – 1, Stephens – 1, Andreescu – 1, Kenin – 1.  Former slam finalists playing here include: QZheng, LFernandez, Keys, Jabeur, Collins, KaPliskova, Pavlyuchenkova, Errani.

Overall there are 13 slam winners and 8 finalists in the draw.

 

Expert Picks:

Swiatek – 13

Steve Tignor (tennis.com), Ed McGrogan (tennis.com), Joel Drucker (tennis.com), David Kane (tennis.com), Stephanie Livaudais (tennis.com), Peter Bodo (tennis.com), Jon Levey (tennis.com), Liya Davidov (tennis.com), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Amy Lundy (Tennis Connected), Ben (Game to Love), JG (Game to Love), Andy Roddick (Served)

Others – 0

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 25 May 2024:

1	Swiatek	1.61
2	Sabalenka	5.5
3	Gauff	9
4	Rybakina	11
5	Collins	21
6	Sakkari	34
7	QZheng	34
8	Ostapenko	41
9	MAndreeva	51
10	Keys	51
11	Jabeur	67
12	Kasatkina	67
13	Paolini	67
14	Svitolina	67
15	Haddad Maia	81
16	Noskova	101
17	Samsonova	101
18	Vondrousova	101
19	Osaka	126
20	Siniakova	126
21	Azarenka	151
22	Badosa	151
23	Krejcikova	151
24	LFernandez	201
25	Mertens	201
26	Navarro	201
27	Sorribes Tormo	201
28	Garcia	251
29	Kalinina	251
30	Kostyuk	251
31	KaPliskova	251
32	Stephens	251