2026 US Open Men’s Preview

The gaping hole in this draw is that left by #1 Jannik Sinner.  He would have been a shoo-in favourite.  But knee injury has felled him.  Can a returning Alcaraz find form fast enough?  Will Djokovic rally the troops one last time?

 

First Quarter

Somehow, Alexander Zverev is the top seed. His reputation for beating up on domestic partners has made him my least favourite player.  But I won’t deny his talent.  He’s had a break through year, finally winning a slam title, at the French, and then following it up by giving Sinner a very difficult match in the Wimbledon final.  Zverev has been to the final here before, in 2020, falling to Dominic Thiem in a pathetic fifth set, fraught with nerves. The slam win seems to have relieved those. 

His serve and ground strokes are formidable, and he’s improving his net game.  With Sinner absent and Alcaraz taking the court for the first time since April, Zverev may well be the favourite.  I’m not reading too much into his upset losses to Paul and Griekspoor in the summer hardcourt swing.  Zverev will likely have classified those as warm-up tournaments.

Alex de Minaur (6) is the second-highest seed in this section.  He raised alarm bells by launching into a self-flagellating diatribe after his Wimbledon loss, that made his future look hopeless.  He’s rowed back from that extreme, in press, since, but his results have not been encouraging.

Lorenzo Musetti (13) has struggled to find the form that took him to #5 last year, with injury largely to blame. He did make the quarters in Cincinnati, so perhaps there is cause for hope.

He’s got a potential banana-skin in the first round when he faces Arthur Fery, recent Wimbledon semi-finalist. Fery is into the semi-finals of Winston Salem this week.

Casper Ruud (19) appears to be a shell of his former three-time-slam-finalist self.

Rafael Jodar (12) has been a revelation this year. The 19-year old began the year playing challengers with a ranking below #150.  Now he is poised to break the record for fastest rise from #100 to top ten, a record held by Boris Becker for the last 40 years.

He won the title in Marrakech, made the final of Washington, and the semis of Canada.  With so little history, it’s harder to make predictions, but he can play on hard and a future in the top ten looks likely.  He could well go on a deep run at this tournament, but the buzz saw that Zverev has become will be hard to avoid.

AZverev def Jodar

 

Second Quarter

Felix Auger Aliassime is a surprising third seed.  He’s been solid for the last twelve months and made the semis here last year, but somehow this ranking seems inflated. It shows what consistency can do.  He hasn’t had a career-defining tournament run, and to be honest, it doesn’t look imminent. His draw is fairly reasonable, with the stiffest challenges likely to come from Cobolli or Fritz.

Flavio Cobolli (5) has had a breakout year in which he’s won Acapulco and made the Roland Garros final.  He’s been decent elsewhere as well, quarters at Wimbledon on grass, and semis of Cincinnati.  He’s played the US Open twice before, third round both times.  But he’s a different player now so I’m not sure what to expect.  With two US Open specialists in his quarter, FAA and Fritz, he’ll have to turn on the magic to make it through.

Taylor Fritz (9) made the final here in 2024, but has had an up and down year. He looked strong on grass and then won Washington on hard.  Before that he took some extended time off to recover from knee tendinitis. He’s been the top American the last five years, but that honour is under threat this year from Shelton and Tiafoe, and maybe even the rapidly improving Nakashima and Tien.

If he’s in full health and can find his best form, he should be the favourite for this quarter.  But there are question marks.

Also worth mentioning is Jakub Mensik (17). Still only 20, last year’s Miami 1000 winner impressed with the title in Auckland and a run to the French semis this year.

I’ll also be keeping an eye on young Alexander Blockx (28) in this quarter.

Auger Aliassime def Fritz

 

Third Quarter

Novak Djokovic (4) continues to amaze at age 39.  He was just in the Wimbledon semis and stunned everyone by beating Sinner to make the Aus Open final, so perhaps anything is still possible.  He’ll have to carefully manage his matches – trying to waste as little energy as he can.  If he gets dragged into long matches it will significantly decrease his chance of taking the title.  With Sinner out, Alcaraz untested, and Zverev (possibly) sated, this is probably Djokovic’s last best chance to claim that history-defining 25^th slam singles title. I’ve said that or something similar for the last several slams, and he hasn’t been able to close the deal. I’m not writing him off, but I’d say the odds are low.

Brandon Nakashima (16) seems to have jumped a level this summer on North American hard courts.  He made the semis in Washington and Cincinnati, and the final in Canada.  His list of victims includes Fritz, Medvedev, Jodar, de Minaur, and Mensik – an impressive list of scalps. A run to the semis would not surprise.

Daniil Medvedev (7) had a decent start to the year after dismal results in 2025.  But the 2021 champion here, has only won seven matches since the French.

Frances Tiafoe (11) has long been a US Open over-performer, twice in the semis, and five times making at least the second week.  Or perhaps he’s been under-performing everywhere else.  This year he seems to have found a new level of consistency and currently sits at #8 in the yearly race.  He’s fresh of a 1000 finalist run in Cincinnati, and looks poised to do damage in Flushing.

Tiafoe def Djokovic

 

Fourth Quarter

Ben Shelton (8) had a reputation for doing well at the slams, better than elsewhere.  But this year he seems to be turning that around.  He’s just defended his 1000 title in Canada, and so has to be considered a serious threat for the US Open title. With four titles this year he is second only to Sinner.  The backhand is still exploitable, and until he fixes it, it’s hard to see him going all the way.

Arthur Fils (10) has had some magnificent moments this year.  Despite a couple injury breaks and missing two slams, he still finds himself at #5 in the race, a testament to the quality he’s been showing when he IS able to play.  He won the Cincy 1000 in fairly convincing fashion and is the fourth favourite of the bookies.  They’ve given Fils, Shelton, and Jodar equal 10 to 1 odds.  He is a legitimate contender for the title.

And lastly we come to the giant wild card in the draw, Carlos Alcaraz, seeded #2.  There is no question that a healthy Alcaraz would be a massive favourite for the title. And if Sinner were playing they would be co-favourites.  But after not playing a professional singles match since April – Alcaraz is a huge unknown.  Will the wrist hold up?  Will it be able to withstand best-of-five tennis for two weeks? 

It would not surprise me if Alcaraz withdrew during his first match.  He could even make it a few rounds, before having to withdraw.  We don’t know how conservative his team is in timing his return. The big question is, is he fully ready?  I’m hoping he is.  Because if he can’t run the whole course, the most likely winner is Zverev, and I would not enjoy that outcome. If Alcaraz does falter, then I’ll be hoping Fils can stay healthy (also notoriously snake-bitten) and take out the German.

Alcaraz def Fils

 

Semis and Final

Zverev def Auger Aliassime

Alcaraz def Tiafoe

Hoping against hope Alcaraz is healthy and Zverev doesn’t win.

Final:  Alcaraz def Zverev

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from Bet365 on 28 Aug 2026:

1	Alcaraz	2.6
2	AZverev	4.33
3	Djokovic	9
4	Fils	11
5	Jodar	11
6	Shelton	11
7	Fritz	13
8	Auger Aliassime	29
9	DMedvedev	29
10	Cobolli	34
11	Mensik	41
12	CaRuud	41
13	Nakashima	51
14	TPaul	51
15	Rublev	67
16	Tiafoe	67
17	Tien	81
18	Bublik	101
19	de Minaur	101
20	Musetti	101
21	FCerundolo	126
22	Khachanov	151
23	Tirante	201
24	Lehecka	251
25	Machac	251
26	Shang	251
27	Vacherot	301
28	Berrettini	351
29	Rinderknech	351
30	Monfils	401
31	Tabilo	451
32	79 tied at	501