2026 US Open Women’s Preview

First Quarter

Aryna Sabalenka (seed #1) had a decent start to the year but has not been looking like a number one for the last four months.  She began by making the Aus Open final, then winning the Sunshine Double, Indian Wells and Miami. But since then her match win-loss record is 17-7, which isn’t terrible for a top ten player, but it’s not really #1 territory. 

She’ll have been #1 for 99 straight weeks, but she can only make that 100 if she wins the US Open and Rybakina doesn’t make the semis.  Nevertheless, the bookies have Sabalenka as their top pick – but this is more by default than merit.  None of the top ten players are having a convincing year that establishes them as the prima diva.

Sabalenka could rescue her year with a victory in New York.  We’d probably all revert to thinking she’s the obvious #1.  At the end of the day, she is the two-time defending champion and current #1, so perhaps should be regarded as the favourite – it’s just not very convincing.

She could meet Barbora Krejcikova (27) in the third round, who is as mercurial as ever.

Diana Shnaider (15) looked like a force while taking out Sabalenka in a run to the French semis.  She’s also looked passable on hardcourts this summer.

Linda Noskova (6) won Wimbledon last month, which is still a huge deal.  But like a lot of recent Czech winners there, I’m not sure that makes her a perennial top player.  She’s still only 21 years old, and clearly has a boatload of talent.  She may yet develop into a consistent contender.  For now though, she’ll need to adjust to that massive win, and carve out a mentality that includes being at the top.

Marta Kostyuk (11) has definitely jumped a level this year.  She’s been a top 20-50 player the last four years, but this year she is #9 in the race with a string of deep results to her credit. Starting in April she won two tournaments including the Madrid 1000, then made semis at both the French and Wimbledon.  Seemingly all that’s left to accomplish is a slam win, and she’s still only 24.  Keeping the emotions under control has proven a challenge.  Will she continue her mastery of consistency?

It’s between Kostyuk and Sabalenka, to my mind, for this quarter.  And although Kostyuk has the better recent record (23-3), I still trust Sabalenka more at crunch time, despite her struggles this year.

Sabalenka def Kostyuk

 

Second Quarter

Karolina Muchova (7) has finally had a run of health and put together a decent year. She’s #7 in the race and only about 1200 points out of #1.  She’s been solid in New York the last three years, at least the quarters, twice making the semis – and often from low ranking positions.  Now that she’s got a decent seeded position she’s set to do it again, or even deeper. Except that… unfortunately, she’s been injured and hasn’t played since Wimbledon.  Sometimes her notorious fragility doesn’t hold her back.  But on this particular outing, I’m gun-shy.

Elina Svitolina (9) is also having a top-ten year, at #6 in the race.  Flushing Meadows has not been her strongest slam but it’s tough to bet against her overall consistency.

Sorana Cirstea (16) announced at the beginning of the year that she would retire after this year.  She’s proceeded to have her best year ever, and at age 36 no less.

Jessica Pegula (3), age 32, should also be nearing the denouement of her career, but somehow she is stronger than ever.  She leads the tour with five finals this year, winning two of them. She’s at her best on hard courts and was a finalist in New York in 2024.  She hits with good pace but doesn’t have the end-the-point-from-anywhere power of a Sabalenka or Anisimova.  She’s playing well though.  This could be her year.  She’s disappointed me before when I’ve picked her for deep runs.  Maybe she feels the pressure.  But I’m doing it again.

Pegula def Svitolina

 

Third Quarter

Mirra Andreeva (5) is still a teenager, and it bears remembering.  This is her third year as a top-end, or at least ‘threatening’, player. And she came good on the threat by winning the French Open this year.  She’s been in an understandable sophomore slump ever since, just 4-4.

Speaking of sophomore slumps, Amanda Anisimova (10) has been far from the form that last year saw her making the Wimbledon and US Open finals. However she’s shown signs of resuscitation by making the quarters in Cincinnati.  Yet I don’t think she’s fully re-inflated, even if her draw is not unkind.

Iva Jovic (14) is having her breakout year at age 18.  Her best results were in Australia at the beginning of the year, but she’s shown a knack for all surfaces.  I’ll be watching closely.

Alexandra Eala (17), the Philippine sensation, is proving that she’s more than just popular with millions worldwide. She took out four top-ten seeds and the reigning Olympic gold medalist to win Washington last month.  So this surface suits her.  The serve is a little weak, however the return is exceptional.  She’ll need to find form quickly in this draw because she could face Gauff in the fourth round and Gauff is in devastating form.

Coco Gauff (4) has just repeated her Cincinnati title, last won in 2023. That was also the year Gauff won the US Open.  Gauff’s year had been peaky until recently, making finals in both Miami and Madrid, but frequently floundering in early rounds.  Now she’s gone 14-2 in her last three tournaments, and thriving on North American hard courts.  To my eye, it’s hard not to look at her as the favourite.  Her serve has improved dramatically and her forehand has not been leaking errors.

Gauff def Anisimova

 

Fourth Quarter

When perennial top-three-ers, Gauff and Swiatek, had not a won a tournament by August 1, and with Sabalenka slumping (by her standards), the rumblings from the commentariat all year have been that we are about to have a new #1. We’ve only had two new number ones in the last seven years, a rare drought since the early days of the rankings.  But suddenly Gauf and Iga Swiatek (8) have righted the ship, each claiming a North American 1000 this month.

I’m slightly less convinced by Iga’s revival than by Gauff’s.  Swiatek had only made one semi-final all year before her title run in Toronto, i.e. she was more consistently bad.  Of course, Swiatek is a player that can get hot for months at a time.  She looked to be playing with more margin and patience than had been typical of the panicky error-fests she was producing in the first half of the year. But I’m not confident she has banished them.

Madison Keys (22) is always dangerous.  She’s been to the semis or better here three times in the last fourteen years.

Belinda Bencic (12) has been having a decent year and has had decent success at the US Open, posting 22-9.

Elena Rybakina (2) is the prime suspect to take over #1 after the Open.  With Sabalenka defending winner’s points from last year, Rybakina starts the tournament with a 1326-point lead to get to #1.  If she makes the semis, she will be #1. If she doesn’t, she can still be #1 if anyone but Sabalenka, Gauff, or Pegula wins the title.  She started the year with a bang by claiming her second slam title, pairing the Australian Open with the Wimbledon she claimed 4 years ago.

In spring she had a strong Sunshine Double (semis and final), and claimed the 500 in Stuttgart, but she’s also thrown in a few clunkers.  However, she looked dangerous in the Toronto and Cincinnati 1000’s. Although losing at both venues to Swiatek, she did make the final of Cincy, taking out Gauff and Osaka – two of the leading contenders for the US Open.

Often emotionless on court, I find her hard to predict.  I’m uncertain how she will handle the pressure of impending #1-hood, but it’s been looming the last five months and she’s failed to seize the moment.

Naomi Osaka (13) has been steadily climbing all year.  It’s worth remembering that she is a four-time slam champion, twice at the US Open.  However, post-motherhood she has lacked the zing that took her to the top.  Undoubtedly she has changed.  She seems more at home in her own skin.  Last year she made the semis of this tournament.  She seems to thrive here.  She did make one final this year, on grass – a surprise even to her, I think.  This is probably the tournament where she can play her best tennis, but for me, the evidence from the last few months that she will, has been a little thin.  She did beat Sabalenka at Wimbledon – a glimmer of the tigress, perhaps?

Swiatek def Osaka

 

Semis and Final

Pegula def Sabalenka

Gauff def Swiatek

Pegula never goes deep when I want her to, so take that with a grain of salt.  With six different slam finalists already this year, the odds of me predicting correctly are even lower than usual.

Final:  Gauff def Pegula

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from Bet365 on 28 Aug 2026:

1	Sabalenka	4.33
2	Swiatek	5.5
3	Gauff	6
4	Osaka	11
5	Pegula	12
6	Rybakina	15
7	MAndreeva	15
8	Anisimova	17
9	Kostyuk	21
10	Noskova	29
11	Muchova	29
12	Eala	34
13	Svitolina	41
14	Keys	41
15	Krejcikova	51
16	Jovic	51
17	Bencic	67
18	Bejlek	81
19	Tauson	126
20	Shnaider	126
21	Samsonova	126
22	Paolini	126
23	Navarro	126
24	Mertens	126
25	Li, Ann	126
26	LFernandez	126
27	Yastremska	151
28	Townsend	151
29	Tagger	151
30	Sakkari	151
31	Kalinina	151
32	Cirstea	151
33	Alexandrova	151