Roland Garros – Men’s Preview 2014
21 May 2014
To my mind there are five men who are real contenders for
this year’s French title. Given that
4-time defending champ Rafael Nadal has won 8 times in the last 9 years, this
might seem a surprise. The obvious rival
is Novak Djokovic – who just beat him last week on clay in the Italian
final. The other contenders are
Nishikori, who had Nadal on the ropes in Madrid before getting injured while
just two service holds from the match; and Wawrinka, who won the 1000 in Monte
Carlo. The fifth contender is the
insanely talented Federer, who beat Djokovic in the semis but lost the Monte
Carlo final to Wawrinka. I also wouldn’t
frown too deeply at anyone nominating Ferrer to join this august list,
especially since he beat Nadal in Monte Carlo.
But on balance I don’t count him as likely to win the title.
There are of course a host of other players that could pull
some upsets or even win the title if the draw went apocalyptic, but their
chances are slim at best. Time for some
deeper analysis...
Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic
It’s hard not to like the humble bull of Mallorca,
especially when it comes to laying your money down at the bookies. The guy is a consistent, reliable performer...
with only one freakish loss ever (to Soderling) on the hallowed terre
battue. Perhaps his greatest escape came
last year in the semis to Djokovic.
After blowing an easy smash that could have set up game point to take
him to one hold from victory, Djokovic instead tried to hang tough for another
8 games but ultimately succumbed to Nadal 9-7 in the fifth.
Such is Rafa’s dominance that it was only the second time
he’d had to play 5 sets at Roland Garros – the other a first-rounder over Isner
in 2011. Nadal may have won, but it
showed Djokovic was getting closer.
Novak has now beaten Nadal 4 times on clay, but all have been best of 3
set matches. Last year he showed how
close he is in a best of 5-set match... can Djokovic go one further this year?
After the win in Rome, momentum would seem to be with
Djokovic. There had been questions about
his recovery from a wrist injury, but he showed no sign of it in Italy. He seemed to get stronger in the final,
rolling over Nadal 3 and 3 in the final two sets after Nadal took the first
6-4.
But Nadal also has momentum.
He’s looked very shaky (for Nadal) on clay this year, with losses to
Novak, Almagro, and Ferrer, and a rather tenuous injury-aided win over
Nishikori after being dominated for most of two sets. But he did win Madrid, and he did make the
final in Rome. Moreover, he seemed to be
playing better and better as the tournament unfolded, playing well in taking
apart Murray, and at a high level in the final.
If he does face Djokovic, he will have six matches to get
ready for the encounter. But will he get
there? At no time has Nadal looked more
vulnerable at the French than now. The
2009 Soderling loss was a shocker out of nowhere. This time around, a Nadal loss would not stun
the cognoscenti. But neither would a
Nadal victory. In fact he is still most
observers’ and the bookies’ favourite – but just narrowly. Although a loss to Nishikori or Dimitrov or
even an outsider like Thiem could happen, it’s unlikely, and if it comes down
to the final against Novak, it’s hard to pick against the 8-time champ.
On the other hand, Djokovic has stated that the French is
the most important tournament of his year – his biggest focus. He’s done everything to show that he is
serious and that he’s peaking at exactly the right time. Nadal is not getting any younger. Already the hordes are whispering about his
28th birthday, which happens in the second week of the
tournament. Nadal will not go on winning
the French forever. Is this the year?
If this clash should come, I’ll probably look back at the 6
victories each man has made to reach the final and try to determine who has
been more dominant, especially in the last 2 or 3 matches. That will be most telling and will make up my
mind. But for now, with total lack of
confidence, I predict a Nadal win, by a hair over Novak.
Stats corner: Nadal
has won more singles matches at the French than any male in history. Djokovic is on a 19 tournament streak of QF
or better finishes at the majors – if he extends to 20 he will be fourth all
time behind Federer, Connors, and Tilden.
Stan Wawrinka
I’d say about 90% of the odds are split between Nadal and
Djokovic for the title. That leaves only
10% for the remaining dogs to fight over.
And the biggest chunk of that I warrant to Wawrinka.
It would be a huge story – Wawrinka wins the first two legs
of the grand slam. This hasn’t happened
since Jim Courier in 1992. Only three
men in the open era have backed up an Australian title with the French –
Courier, Wilander (twice), and the immortal Rod Laver during his slam run of
‘69.
Over the last year and half, Stan has martialled his
resources and has risen to the peak of his powers. Fifth set losses to Djokovic last year in
Australia and the US Open (semis) finally culminated in the elusive slam title
in Melbourne. Since then, he’s gone on
to join the winner’s circle at 1000 events – a circle only marginally larger
among active players than that for Major winners – the Big 4 plus Ferrer,
Berdych, Tsonga, Hewitt, and Davydenko.
But can he do it on clay?
Clay is his best surface with a lifetime 0.659 match winning
rate, 0.769 in the last 52 weeks. But it
will not surprise me if Stan does not perform well at the French. He’s likely not as reliable a pick for a deep
run as proven performer like Federer or Ferrer. Wawrinka has shown us a great high in his
performance, but it’s probably asking for too much to expect him to deliver it
day in, day out, the way the multi-slam winners have done. But this is a slam, so it’s a perfect
opportunity for Stan to peak again. He
probably can’t unseat both Djokovic and Nadal, although that is exactly what he
did in Australia.
Kei Nishikori
Kei was not on my radar has a potential French champ just
three weeks ago. But he proceeded to win
Barcelona, that 8-time bastion of Nadalism; and had Nadal on the ropes in
Madrid, fist cocked for the knockout, but then fell to injury himself. The concern is whether he will be at 100% for
Roland Garros, and if his body will be able to handle best of 5 set marathons
every other day for two weeks.
If his body holds up, he is a very serious contender,
capable of taking out anyone and winning the whole thing. But even healthy, he may not have the
consistency to guarantee a deep run to the semis or further. Unfortunately, I’m expecting he’ll likely
succumb to injury at some point.
He’ll come in as the 9th seed, which means he
could run into one of the big boys as early as the fourth round. He may still have enough juice in the tank to
pull a major upset and I hope we have a chance to see him go as far as his
talent allows.
Roger Federer
If this year has shown me anything it’s that Federer can
never be counted out. By the end of last
year things were looking bleak. He’d run
up a number of losses to low-ranked players, had his record streak of
consecutive quarter finals in Majors stopped at 36 (nine years, what a
slacker!), eventually fell to #8 in the world, and was looking generally old
and vulnerable. But he righted the ship
with a SF run in Australia, a title in Dubai, and two victories this year over
Djokovic.
Sad truth is I don’t see him capable of beating Nadal –
especially on clay. Anyone else would be
at least possible. For Roger to take
this title, someone else will have to take out Nadal for him. If that happens, Federer could be dangerous,
although I’d still favour Djokovic and possibly Wawrinka or Nishikori if it
came down to it. The old boy may have
another title run left in the tank, but it’s probably at Wimbledon.
Other Pretenders
David Ferrer beat Nadal on clay this year, in Monte
Carlo. And he made the French final last
year. But he’s looked a whisker less sharp,
and when the rubber meets the road I can’t see him taking the title. He may have moved from most eligible bachelor
to spinster.
Grigor Dimitrov is finally showing the talent he’s been so
long lauded for. He’s at a new high of
#12, evidence of two tournament wins this year, complemented by notches over
Raonic, Berdych, and Murray. He probably
could take out Nadal or Djokovic, but probably won’t. I still think he has a future Major in him,
but needs just a little more time – another year or two.
Milos Raonic has entrenched himself in the top 10 and showed
some clay chops with a SF run in Rome, giving Djokovic a real scare. His huge game is probably best on hard
courts. He might be capable of an upset
at the French, but the title is too big an ask for now.
Andy Murray has not thriven on clay, even if he was a super
tough out for Nadal in the Rome quarters.
Repeating 2012’s QF run in Paris would be a nice result for him and
would take to 13 his streak of QF or better finishes in majors he’s played.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is likely the best hope for a hometown
winner, and while beating any of the above players on clay could happen, taking
down two or three of them is probably nigh impossible.
The Draw
(This section written 23 May)
First Quarter
Nadal is deservedly the #1 seed, but his draw could get
tricky. The first round against Ginepri
is probably unlosable, although fast-rising Dominic Thiem in the second could
be less predictable. Round 4 could bring
up Tommy Haas (seeded 16) or Nicolas Almagro (21) who beat him in
Barcelona. Realistically, I don’t give
Almagro much of a chance against the king, especially over 5 sets.
The lower section features Grigor Dimitrov (11) and Ferrer
(5) as potential 4R opponents. Ferrer
has proven pedigree on clay, but the significant gifts of Dimitrov are not to
be underestimated. Either one is capable
of taking out Rafa on a good day, and Ferrer has already done it this year in
Monte Carlo. Ferrer’s head to head with
Nadal is a discouraging 6-21, but the 6 means he cannot be counted out. Ferrer has won 2 of the last 3, and has two
wins on clay. For Dimitrov’s part, I
think having to take out Ferrer and Nadal consecutively would be more than he
can handle. The consistent Ferrer will
probably run him ragged. Till then, there’s
a potentially entertaining match between Seppi and Giraldo to tide us through
round one.
Nadal d. Ferrer
Second Quarter
Stan Wawrinka (3) could hardly have asked for clearer
passage. Garcia-Lopez in the first could
produce an upset, but once he has his sea-legs, it should be relatively smooth
sailing for the Swiss. His load may be
further lightened in having both Monfils (23) and Gasquet (12) in his quarter. Both are certainly formidable on clay, but
both have been suffering from injuries this spring and the chance that either
or both could pull out is high. It’s not
clear to me if the draw would then be remade with a shuffling of the seeds or
if lucky losers from qualifying would get the spots – it may depend on timing.
So that could put Fabio Fognini (14) into a 4R slot with
Wawrinka. Fognini is supremely talented and
a fine clay-courter, but seems to lack match discipline and has shown no mettle
on the big stage. An upset is possible,
but unlikely.
The bottom half of the section features Andy Murray (7) who
is playing back into form but is far from his best on clay. Kohlschreiber (28) in 3R or Verdasco (24) in
R4 could be more than Murray can handle, but they are both aging and with
Gasquet likely below par, I favour the Scot for a cream puff walk to a QF clash
with Wawrinka.
If Wawrinka brings his best clay game, victory should be
well within his reach, but Murray has shown a few times that he can find a
groove on clay, with previous SF and QF finishes in Paris. His best may not be enough against a clay
natural like The Man.
Wawrinka d. Murray
Third Quarter
It really is a Swiss-friendly draw. Federer (4) himself could hardly have stacked
it more favourably. He should have an
easy trip through the first week and is seeded to meet Ernests Gulbis (18) or
Mikhail Youzhny (15) in round four. Both
are very talented with games that could take out the Fed on a good day. Gulbis especially has been riding the wave of
formerly-underachieving-young-guns-finally-making-good-in-2014, like Dimitrov, Dolgopolov,
Nishikori, and Raonic (but where is Tomic?).
But despite all Ernests’s explosive gifts, I’d expect the incisive
disciplines of Federer to ultimately dissect the Latvian.
The top portion of the quarter is headlined by Tomas Berdych
(6). Berdych could get into all kinds of
trouble in 3R against 2014 revelation Roberto Bautista Agut (27), who has a
winning record against the Berd 2-1.
That could give Tommy Robredo an excellent chance to make his 9th
fourth round at the French, provided he survives a potential matchup with John
Isner (10) in 3R.
If Berdych does somehow claw his way through, he should be
heartened to remember he has 5 victories over Roger in their last 9 matches.
Federer d. Berdych
Fourth Quarter
Djokovic (2) has not been handed a cake-walk. Joao Sousa in the first is a solid young clay
player, and Chardy in 2R can never be underestimated. Third round could bring up former top-tenner
Marin Cilic (25) or clay specialist Pablo Andujar. After that Tsonga (13) is likely, who owns 5
wins over Novak and a 5-set loss to the Serb at Roland Garros in 2012. It’s a test that a focussed Djokovic should
pass, but is by no means easy.
The upper portion features 3 of the afore-mentioned formerly
underachieving young guns, Raonic (8), Dolgopolov (20), and Nishikori (9),
rounded off with a dose of Gilles Simon (29).
Raonic is in a particularly youth-laden section and his first rounder
with 19 year old Nick Kyrgios definitely piques my interest. That appetizer could be followed by the young
monster, Jiri Vesely.
Of the seeds in this section, Nishikori should be the
favourite based on his recent outstanding results on clay. I’m hesitant to pick him because of his
legendary penchant for injury retirement.
Raonic could certainly push even a healthy Nishikori, and overall it
wouldn’t surprise me if any of the names mentioned in the previous paragraph
appeared in the quarter-final slot.
Nishikori or Raonic are certainly capable of taking down Novak,
but the odds have to be with Djokovic to prevail.
Djokovic d. Nishikori
Semis and Final
Picking the top four seeds to come through hardly seems like
going out on a limb, and there are certainly many perils that could derail the
trip for any of them. But the seedings
reflect a reality that should increase the odds of predictability.
Wawrinka managed to take out Nadal in Australia, and his
victory at Monte Carlo shows his clay chops.
But this is Nadal... at the French... over best of 5 sets.
Nadal d. Wawrinka
There is no question that Federer can beat Djokovic. Roger’s already done it twice this year, once
on clay, and owns a positive 18-16 record over Novak, lifetime. If Nadal has already been eliminated, it
might provide extra motivation for Roger to really push through this potential
match. But it could equally motivate
Djokovic. I have to think hunger and
youth are on Djokovic’s side.
Djokovic d. Federer
A Nadal-Djokovic final is really what so many are hoping
for. The two top men in the game, vying
for the title. As a bonus, the winner
will be #1 in the rankings. There is so
little to separate them. Djokovic proved
in Rome he’s in the form to take down Nadal.
But beating Nadal over best of five sets on clay is new territory for every
active player.
The analytical side of me thinks Novak is playing superior
tennis at the moment. But there are 6
matches for each man to ready for the encounter. As I said above, the ease with which each man
is winning and the form he’s displaying will make up my mind on match day if
this match should come to pass. But for
now, I can’t choose against history and Nadal’s proven record. By a whisker...
Nadal d. Djokovic
Odds
Decimal odds from Betfair – 20 May 2014
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
Nadal
|
2.52
|
|
2
|
Djokovic
|
2.74
|
|
3
|
Wawrinka
|
17.5
|
|
4
|
Ferrer
|
26
|
|
5
|
Federer
|
30
|
|
6
|
Murray
|
30
|
|
7
|
Nishikori
|
50
|
|
8
|
Tsonga
|
100
|
|
9
|
Berdych
|
130
|
|
10
|
Dimitrov
|
140
|
|
11
|
Raonic
|
160
|
|
12
|
Almagro
|
200
|
|
13
|
Fognini
|
220
|
|
14
|
Gulbis
|
340
|
|
15
|
Simon
|
400
|
|
16
|
Dolgopolov
|
440
|
|
17
|
Bautista
Agut
|
560
|
|
18
|
Monfils
|
560
|
|
19
|
Giraldo
|
600
|
|
20
|
Thiem
|
600
|
|
21
|
Cilic
|
610
|
|
22
|
Janowicz
|
610
|
|
23
|
Gasquet
|
610
|
|
24
|
Verdasco
|
670
|
|
25
|
Andujar
|
750
|
Comments
Post a Comment