Roland Garros – Women’s Preview 2014
21 May 2014
Where are the young?
Petra Kvitova is still the youngest Major winner – and she’s 24. Slam-wise, we are just about half way through
the decade... this French Open is the 18th GS of the 10’s (45% of
the way through), and only one woman born in the 90’s has claimed a slam
title. Is this normal?
Looking at players born in the 80’s, both Hingis and Serena
won Majors before the 00’s even began (1997 and 1999). Then Venus won in 2000 and Henin in
2003. During 2004 we had Myskina,
Sharapova, and Kuznetsova, all 80’s babies.
In short there was a full complement of top players born in the 80’s
visible at this time last decade.
Now? We have
Kvitova.
For 70’s babies, there were Sabatini, Seles, and Sanchez-Vicario,
all slam champions by 1990. The 60’s
crowd had Mandlikova and Austin, both winners by 1980. The 50’s boomers were more like today. There was Goolagong in 1971, and then the
towering accomplishments of Evert beginning in 1974.
So it’s high time that we had another slam winner born in
the 90’s. Kvitova seems as likely to
repeat as the Toronto Maple Leafs to claim Lord Stanley. So who are the likely candidates to redeem
the 90’s-born woman?
Simona Halep
Ummm... who? For
those not suckling on every tennis newsfeed seconds after it’s released, it’s a
fair question. Halep has risen from
relative obscurity – notable only for her controversial decision to get breast
reductions to aid her tennis game – to something like scurity. She paid off Mephistopheles in flesh and he
seems to be delivering. She won 6 titles
last year, second only to Serena, and claimed her first big-9 title (Premier 5
+ Premier Mandatory – could there be less fan friendly labelling?) this year in
Doha. In Victoria Azarenka’s absence
she’s risen to #4 in the world.
She nearly took out Sharapova in the Madrid final. She also
made her first slam QF at this year’s Australian. She’s 22, entering her prime. The world is her oyster.
It may also be now or never for her. She does not have that big game wielded by a
Williams, Azarenka, or Sharapova that looks sure to triumph at a slam. Rather her wiles are more those of Aggie
Radwanska. She’s consistent enough to
threaten for the top, but in order to triumph she’d need a collapse by all of
the top stars, and even then, were she to make a final, she’s likely to be
undone by the metoric burst of a more inconsistent player, like a Lisicki,
Stosur, or Stephens.
I’m not ruling her out... she’s about 4th in my
estimations for the French title. Her #4 seed will protect her only from Serena
or Li Na before the SF, and not the handful of dangerous players ranked below
her. A French crown this year is not
impossible, but I’m not betting on it.
I’ll be watching with interest to see how deep her French run will be.
Petra Kvitova and Caroline Wozniacki
Yes, these two were born in the 90’s. But somehow it feels like their best days are
behind them. Another run on Wimbledon’s
grass could favour #6 Kvitova’s scatter-shot game, and in the psychology-du-jour,
she should revive for some solid play in her 30’s – so we may have to wait six
years to see her threaten the top seriously.
Seems hard to believe she was the popular pick for yearend #1 of 2011.
Even harder to fathom is Wozniacki finishing yearend #1 -
twice! She’s lurking at #14 now. A good French run for her would be a
quarter-final. We’ll have to look
elsewhere to find the next 90’s-born slammer.
Sloane Stephens
Just two ticks back at #16, the darling of last year seems
to be stagnating. She’s dropped slightly
from her career high of #11 in October.
But despite our 21st century longing for instant
gratification, it’s important to remember that tennis players take time to
mature and she’s just 21. Sloane has
been consistent in getting it up for the big occasion. She went S-4-Q-4 in the majors last year, and
this year her biggest results are 4R in Australia and QF at Indian Wells. I’m not expecting her to stake Roland Garros
this year. I’ll be looking for more
consistency from her in smaller events before that first major becomes
likely. But she’s getting there. A Major win in the next 3 years is within
reason. And for now, a QF or SF at RG
would be a nice goal for her.
Eugenie Bouchard
Genie is still on an upward trajectory since she burst on
the scene in 2012 with a Wimbledon Junior title. The 20-year old made a splash in January with
a SF run in Australia and has scalps from Ivanovic, Errani, VWilliams, and
Jankovic this year. She made SF on clay
in Charleston but looked weak in the big European clay events – even if she
lost only to former slam finalists – Kuznetsova, Schiavone, and
ARadwanska. Last year she lost in the 2nd
round to Sharapova at the French. This
year she’ll be seeded. Ranked #19,
she’ll probably just miss a top 16 seed, so could face the likes of Serena,
Sharapova, or Li as early as 3R. Any
improvement on last year would be a good result for her at Garros.
Overall, despite a #13 ranking on the ‘Road’ rankings (results
from 2014 only), she is probably less likely than the mercurial Stephens to be
the 2nd 90’s-born Major winner, but it’s only a matter of time. In the long run, with her consistent, brainy
play coupled with the ability to hit big, Genie might be the more successful.
Other early 90’s babies
Looking down the ranking list... #21 Alize Cornet, #25
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, #27 Sorana Cirstea, #36 Jamie Hampton... are a
hard-working and talented lot, likely never to threaten at a slam
Slightly less early 90’s babies
#37 Garbine Muguruza (1993), #38 Elina Svitolina (1994), #44
Madison Keys (1995), #46 Caroline Garcia (1993), #67 Donna Vekic (1996), #81
Belinda Bencic (1997)... may have greater potential than the previous group for
future slam glory, although a win NOW, by any of them, would be a shock.
Muguruza and Garcia have had some solid results this
year. Keys looks to be brimming with
talent, but this has not seemed to translate into big results yet... give her
time.
Maybe the brightest light in the group is Belinda
Bencic. Just 17, she’s already risen
more than a hundred ranking spots this year with wins over APavs and Errani
along the way. She’s #38 on the ‘Road’
rankings. Will she be the next Swiss
sensation? A dark horse SF run would not
be unthinkable.
Favourites
Future fantasies aside, the winner of Garros this year is
likely to come from the 80’s cohort. The
real contenders for the title are proven winners. The names looming large belong to Serena
Williams, Maria Sharapova, and Li Na, winners of the last 3 RG titles. Scanning the trophy before that we run into
Schiavone, Kuznetsova, Ivanovic, and the now-retired Henin – none of whom are
favourites now.
Schiavone is too old,
Kuznetsova seems to have lost the spark of genius, but Ivanovic has shown signs
of revival. She’s finally playing close
to her 2008 level, and the win over Serena in Melbourne was an eye-popper. But if she’s back to 2008, then she has 6
years of catch-up to play. The game has
moved on and her talent might not be able to keep pace. She is not showing anything close to the
consistency of results in her early 2008 campaign. Another French Crown is not completely
impossible – after all, she has wins over Serena and Sharapova this year. But it would be a shocker. Realistically, can anyone stop Serena?
Li Na
If there’s going to be a grand slam this year, Na is the
only woman that can do it. She’s a
strong contender in Paris. She won here
3 years ago, she’s already claimed Australia, and she leads the ‘Road’ rankings
for points accumulated this year. Since
Australia she’s played only Big-9 events – five of them. They are fierce crucibles and she’s acquitted
herself well with a runner-up, a semi, and two quarter-final finishes. But that ‘near the top’ performance will not
cut it when a grand slam is on the line.
Both clay court events ended in the quarters for her –
three-setters to Errani and Sharapova, the French finalists of 2012. She’ll
have to do better. And then there’s
Serena... against whom she has suffered 10 straight losses since a lone win in
2008.
Despite these signs, I’m not counting Li out. She has huge game, and she can raise it for
the big occasions. Her seeding will also
help her. At #2, she won’t have to face
Serena until the final, so that’s six chances for Serena to have an off day or
develop nerves. If she does face Serena,
the odds will be against Li, but she still has a chance, especially perhaps on
clay.
Maria Sharapova
After a lengthy layoff to end 2013, Sharapova has been
playing her way into form during 2014.
She tends to build on the momentum of past results and when she’s in
slam-winning form it’s evident. The
Roland Garros finalist of the last two years is playing well on clay again,
sporting 12 match wins and two titles heading into the French. She’s probably second best to Serena on the
surface this year, although the decisive loss to Ivanovic in Rome (winning only
5 games) was puzzling.
Maria will not be helped by her #8 ranking. At least it’s not lower. But she could run into Serena, Li, or even
Halep in the quarters. Running into
ARadwanska (seeded #3) might not be unwelcome.
Barring a flame-on day for Ivanovic, Jankovic, or perhaps Bouchard,
Sharapova is likely the favourite to win any match through to Serena. With 15 straight losses to Serena (dating to
2005), it seems that whatever Maria does Serena can do better. The trend seems unlikely to change. Like Li, her best hope may be that Serena
falters against a lesser player. Help
from the draw gods in avoiding Serena would increase her chances as well. Overall, she’s my #2 for the French.
Serena Williams
Once again, Serena is the favourite. Her match wins in Rome looked inevitable,
marching inexorably to the trophy. But
the year has not been perfect. Once
again, she faltered early in Australia and her 3 losses already this year are
only one less than for all of last year.
Last year she entered Garros with 5 titles, this year only three – which
leads the WTA. The Queen is not dead.
The question is if she will falter again. She’s been the favourite in the last 5 slams,
but won only two of them. It always
seems there is no one who should beat her.
And yet she is beaten. It really
seems that her only true opponent is herself.
Will she hold it together?
I’m guessing the odds are more with her than anyone else. No one else has won two of the last five
slams.
Past Performances
I have kept statistics on the performances of top players at
the Majors. Points are awarded for each
round a player reaches, so first round losers get 1 point. Second round losers get 2 points. Quarter finalists-get 5 points, winners get 8
points, etc. Ranking players by their
average performance generates the following list for active players at the
French Open.
|
Position
|
Player
|
Average Finish
|
Times Played
|
Best
Performance
|
|
1
|
Sharapova
|
4.9
|
11
|
W 2012
|
|
2
|
SWilliams
|
4.8
|
12
|
W 2002, 13
|
|
3
|
Kuznetsova
|
4.7
|
11
|
W 2009
|
|
4
|
Ivanovic
|
4.1
|
9
|
W 2008
|
|
5
|
Schiavone
|
3.9
|
13
|
W 2010
|
|
6
|
Li
|
3.9
|
7
|
W 2011
|
|
7
|
Jankovic
|
3.8
|
10
|
SF 2006, 07, 10
|
|
8
|
Kvitova
|
3.6
|
5
|
SF 2012
|
|
9
|
VWilliams
|
3.6
|
16
|
RU 2002
|
|
10
|
Stosur
|
3.4
|
10
|
RU 2010
|
|
11
|
Azarenka
|
3.4
|
8
|
SF 2013
|
|
12
|
ARadwanska
|
3.3
|
7
|
QF 2013
|
|
12
|
Cibulkova
|
3.3
|
7
|
SF 2009
|
|
14
|
Zvonareva
|
3.3
|
8
|
QF 2003
|
|
15
|
Suarez Navarro
|
3.2
|
5
|
QF 2008
|
|
16
|
Stephens
|
3.0
|
3
|
4R 2012, 13
|
|
16
|
Errani
|
3.0
|
6
|
RU 2012
|
|
16
|
Petkovic
|
3.0
|
3
|
QF 2011
|
|
16
|
Pavlyuchenkova
|
3.0
|
6
|
QF 2011
|
|
20
|
Wozniacki
|
2.9
|
7
|
QF 2010
|
|
|
Kerber
|
2.3
|
6
|
QF 2012
|
|
|
Pennetta
|
2.3
|
11
|
4R 2008, 10
|
|
|
Bouchard
|
2.0
|
1
|
2R 2013
|
|
|
Lisicki
|
1.8
|
5
|
3R 2013
|
Records of some historic players: 8.0 – Lenglen, Connolly, Gibson; 7.0 – Evert,
Wills, Betz, Browne; 6.9 – Hart; 6.7 – Bouman; 6.6 – Court, OsborneDuPont, SFry;
6.3 - Graf; 6.2 – Haydon Jones; 6.0 –
Goolagong; 5.9 – Seles, Jacobs; 5.6 – SanchezVicario; 5.4 – Hingis; 5.3 –
Navratilova, BJKing, Brough; 5.2 – Henin, Bueno; 4.8 – Sabatini; 4.5 – Capriati, Mandlikova;
4.4 – Martinez; 4.3 – Clijsters; 3.9 – MJFernandez; 3.8 – Davenport, Jaeger;
3.7 – TAustin
I also have to give a shout out to Francesca Schiavone who
has participated in all of the last 54 slam tournaments (RG will be her 55th). This is a record among active players. She’s just two years short of the record 62
consecutive slams played by Ai Sugiyama; and about to break the second place
tie of 54 she shares with Elena Likhovtseva.
The Draw
(This section written 23 May)
First Quarter
Serena Williams (seeded 1) heads the draw. The seed nearest is her sister Venus (29) who
could have a very tough opener against rising teen Belinda Bencic. Things get no easier in the bottom half of
this quarter as former finalist Samantha Stosur (19) is set to run into
Australian finalist Dominika Cibulkova (9).
The winner of that third rounder would likely encounter Sharapova (7) in
round four. It seems a shame that so
much talent will necessarily be eliminated early in this quarter... Serena and
Sharapova were my top picks for the title, whereas Stosur, Cibulkova, and Bencic
would all be reasonable choices to go deep... under different circumstances. Someone will have to emerge from this wasp’s
nest and it will likely be Serena.
Serena d. Sharapova
Second Quarter
The top seed here is Agnieszka Radwanska (3) who could have
a tricky opener against Shuai Zhang, recent quarterfinalist in Rome. I’ll also be watching the 1R between Alize
Cornet (20) and Australian teen sensation Ashley Barty. Likely 4R for ARad is clay-loving Carla
Suarez Navarro who’s near her career peak ranking and seeded 14. Their matchup would be a toss-up to my
mind. Nor would it be impossible to see
former champ, unseeded Francesca Schiavone emerge from this eighth.
The lower section of the quarter seeds Flavia Pennetta (12)
to meet Bouchard (18) in 3R, with Kerber (8) likely for round four. All three of these women are reasonable picks
for the eighth and about equally matched.
Perhaps patriotism or love of youth colours my pick of Bouchard.
Suarez Navarro d. Bouchard
Third Quarter
The top seed here is Simona Halep (4) who greatly benefits
from her seeding and stays out of the way of the most dangerous players who are
packed mostly in the top half.
Nevertheless, the opener against Alisa Kleybanova, who has had bad luck
with health but is recovering and is a former top 20 player, could be tricky. The fourth could bring up always
slam-dangerous Sloane Stephens (15).
The upper eighth features former champs Ivanovic (11) and
Kuznetsova (27) to face, respectively, mercurial Czechs Safarova (23) and
Kvitova (5) in round three. Any one of
this talented lot could get hot for a few days and roar through the draw. I like the way Ivanovic has been playing this
year, although I blanche to think she occupies the spot of ‘steadiest’ in
considering this grouping. She has a
tough opener against Caroline Garcia, so will need to be near top form out of
the gate. And one must never count out
Kuznetsova.
A tussle between Halep and Ivanovic could be fascinating
counterpoint in craft versus power, not that Halep is particularly weak...
Halep trying to earn her star on the big stage, and Ivanovic trying to recover
former glory.
Halep d. Ivanovic
Fourth Quarter
Should they make it that far, Jelena Jankovic (6) and former
finalist Sara Errani (10) could stage in R4 an entertaining rematch of their
semi-final in Rome last week. Errani won
that one, although I’m not sure who the favourite would be should they play
again. Errani could have her hands full
in round one with Madison Keys.
In the bottom eighth Li Na has only moderately tricky waters
to navigate with an opener against Kristina Mladenovic, and seeds Petkovic
(28), Pavlyuchenkova (24), and Wozniacki (13) in her section. The seeding has worked for Li, but Jankovic
or Errani should end the free ride abruptly.
Picking among the three is tough.
Word out of the Li camp is that she’s putting extra pressure on herself
to work for a Grand Slam this year. That’s
the sort of talk that often leads to an early loss. But her draw is favourable
and she’ll have time to play her way into it.
Li d. Jankovic
Semis and Final
I’m not sure I’ve ever predicted all four semi-finalists
correctly, so predicting the outcomes of SF matches seems a bit fatuous, but
here goes...
Suarez Navarro is no pushover on clay, but she will not be
familiar with the pressure and gravitas of a slam semi. For Serena that will be a non-issue, and the
considerable weapons of her game, combined with the level she’ll have to be
playing at to get out of her quarter should combine for a decisive Serena
victory, whoever her victim in this semi-final.
SWilliams d Suarez Navarro
I’ve predicted Halep vs Li for the second semi, but it could
just as easily be an all-Serbian affair, or Kvitova vs Errani, or some other
permutation. Li certainly has the game
to be tops in the bottom half. If her
mind is clear, she’s my pick. But I
suspect Halep will be carrying less angst and her recent form has been
wonderful. Ivanovic, too, looks like an
extremely good choice. She’s playing
more cleanly than she has for years, her game is well-suited for clay, plus she’s
been to the final here twice. It’s only
by the narrowest of margins that I’ve selected Halep over Ivanovic. All things considered, I’ll take either of
them over Li.
Halep d. Li
If Serena makes it to the final, I’ll expect an easy victory
for her. Her capacity for
self-destruction in early rounds of the slams has become evident in the last
two years, so nothing is for certain.
She’s still the best choice.
SWilliams d. Halep
Odds
Decimal odds from Betfair – 20 May 2014
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
SWilliams
|
2.26
|
|
2
|
Sharapova
|
6.2
|
|
3
|
Li
|
8.6
|
|
4
|
Halep
|
20
|
|
5
|
Ivanovic
|
20
|
|
6
|
ARadwanska
|
34
|
|
7
|
Errani
|
50
|
|
8
|
Stosur
|
70
|
|
9
|
Jankovic
|
80
|
|
10
|
Bouchard
|
80
|
|
11
|
Kvitova
|
90
|
|
12
|
Suarez Navarro
|
90
|
|
13
|
Garcia
|
95
|
|
14
|
Cibulkova
|
100
|
|
15
|
Kerber
|
100
|
|
16
|
Kuznetsova
|
110
|
|
17
|
Pennetta
|
140
|
|
18
|
Barthel
|
150
|
|
19
|
Cornet
|
160
|
|
20
|
Stephens
|
200
|
|
21
|
Pavlyuchenkova
|
200
|
|
22
|
Safarova
|
200
|
|
23
|
Muguruza
|
200
|
|
24
|
Giorgi
|
200
|
|
25
|
Lisicki
|
250
|
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