Wimbledon Women 2014 – 21 Jun 2014
Despite all her slam falters of late, Serena Williams is
still the favourite. When she’s on she
seems unbeatable. But will she wobble
again?
It seems Maria Sharapova is most likely to capitalize on a
Serena hiccup. She and Serena lead the
WTA this year for titles won with three each.
Next are Ivanovic and Li with two each.
Surprisingly Azarenka, Aggie Radwanska, Kvitova, and Wozniacki – the top
title-getters of the last three years, aside from Serena – have no titles this
year. Is that mid-career quartet down
and out, or can they still threaten for a big title? And what about the youth brigade of Simona
Halep, Eugenie Bouchard, Garbine Muguruza, Sloane Stephens, and Madison Keys?
First Quarter
Four of my favourites are in this section, so I expect the
eventual tournament winner to emerge from this quarter. Just like at the French, Serena Williams
(seeded 1) and Sharapova (5) are in the same quarter. And just like the French, Sharapova will be
favoured for the quarter and the title if Serena loses.
French Open semi-finalists Bouchard (13) and Petkovic (20)
could face off in the third round for the right to face Serena in the fourth. Bouchard is a former Wimbledon junior champion
and made the third round on her debut last year. I could easily see her in the semis or even
final with a different draw. As it is, I
don’t see her beating both Serena and Sharapova/Kerber.
In addition to Sharapova, the 2nd eighth features
former semi-finalists Kerber (9) and Flipkens (24) in a potential 4R
clash. I think Flipkens was a bit of a
fluke during last year’s Wimblegeddon, but Kerber is a genuine grass court
talent. If Sharapova has trouble
adjusting to the grass and staying low, she could well go out to the compact
Kerber.
3rd
Round
|
4th
Round
|
Quarters
|
|
SWilliams (1)
|
|
Bouchard (13)
|
|
|
Petkovic
(20)
|
|
|
Kerber (9)
|
|
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Flipkens
(24)
|
|
|
|
Sharapova (5)
|
|
SWilliams d. Sharapova
Second Quarter
This quarter looks decidedly second rate compared to the
loaded first quarter. That doesn’t make
picking a winner any easier, as the talent here is largely at a consistent
level. Recent French finalist Simona
Halep (3) is the highest seed. She has
virtually no pedigree on grass – 3R last year – but her low-to-the-ground style
and accurate shot placement bode well for her 2014 incarnation.
Young talents Belinda Bencic (born 1997) and Victoria Duval
(1995) are possible 3R opponents for Halep.
The fourth could bring up Vinci (seeded 21) who made 4R here the last
two years, French quarter-finalist Suarez Navarro (15), or perhaps even Vera
Zvonareva, finalist from 2010. Zvonareva
made an unsuccessful return to the tour this January after 1.5 years away. She went 1-4 through Indian Wells and hasn’t
played since. Despite her talent and
former results, there is nothing to suggest she will display the form to cause
any concern to the favourites.
The other eighth contains the Serbs Ivanovic (11) and
Jankovic (7) as its highest seeds.
Jankovic is a consistent grass court threat with four 4th
round performances at Wimbledon.
Ivanovic has likewise made 4R four times, and one of those materialized into
a SF showing, in 2007. Jankovic has the
prospect of facing one of the talented young trio of Townsend (b 1996), Keys
(1995), or Puig (1993) in the third round.
Keys has just won her first grass title, and first WTA-level title at
Eastbourne. A SF run is well within
reason.
Ivanovic faces the tantalizing prospect of a match with the
impossibly grass-lethal Sabine Lisicki. Despite
middling results everywhere else, Lisicki has been to the quarters or better
here the last 4 years, making the final last year after taking out Serena. It’s hard to say why she is so good here and
so bad elsewhere, but her consistency and grass talent cannot be ignored. This is a quarter in which she can shine.
3rd
Round
|
4th
Round
|
Quarters
|
|
Halep (3)
|
|
Vinci (21)
|
|
|
Suarez
Navarro (15)
|
|
|
Ivanovic (11)
|
|
|
Lisicki (19)
|
|
|
Keys (u)
|
|
|
Jankovic (7)
|
|
|
Lisicki d. Halep
Third Quarter
The third quarter opens with two big question marks over
potential 3R opponents Victoria Azarenka (8) and Garbine Muguruza (27). Azarenka has played only match since a QF
loss at the Australian in January. She’s
young, a fearsome competitor, and a former #1 so she cannot be ignored, but
comes in without a match played in 4 months.
If she can squeak through her first match she may be able to play her
way into form. More likely, rust will
pop up at an unexpected time and she’ll go down to a lower ranked opponent.
Muguruza stunned the tennis world by decimating Serena and
having Sharapova on the ropes at the French in a QF finish. She is an unknown quantity on grass and has a
tricky opener against newly crowned s’Hertogenbosch champ, Coco
Vandeweghe. With the weakness of the
draw around her, Vandeweghe has a chance to make the quarters. Seeded to meet Azarenka in 4R is Australian
finalist Dominika Cibulkova (10), who made the quarter-finals here in 2011.
The 6th eighth could showcase a third round match
between two-time slam champ Kuznetsova (28) and Agnieszka Radwanska (4). ARad was runner-up at Wimbledon two years
ago, but is by no means a given in a showdown with Kuznetsova who has thrice
made the QFs at the big W and sports a 10-4 record over Radwanska, including
only one loss since 2008. The survivor
could have easy fare in 4R before arriving in the quarters.
3rd
Round
|
4th
Round
|
Quarters
|
Azarenka (8)
|
|
|
Muguruza (27)
|
|
|
|
Cibulkova (10)
|
|
|
Errani (14)
|
|
Kuznetsova
(28)
|
|
|
ARadwanska
(4)
|
|
|
ARadwanska d. Cibulkova
Fourth Quarter
After the weak-looking 3rd quarter, the bottom
section features world #2 and Australian Open champion Li Na (2). Li had played well all year until her first
round implosion at Roland Garros. Now
that the pressure of a potential calendar slam is buried, I expect Li to play
closer to her talent and potential at Wimbledon. Potential 4th round opponents for
Li include Wozniacki (16) and Stosur (17).
Stosur has puzzlingly made three finals at Wimbledon in
doubles but never been past 3R in singles.
Wozniacki was #1 has recently as 2012 but has fallen to #16 on the
computer. She seems to be halting the
slide temporarily with a SF showing at Eastbourne on grass this week. She has been to 4R at Wimbledon three times,
but despite these positive signs she’s struggled at the slams, making it past
3R only once in the last 9 slams.
The opposing eighth is headlined by 2011 champ Petra Kvitova
(6) who could run into 5-time Wimbledon champion Venus Williams (30) in 3R. Nearby is slam over-achiever Sloane Stephens
(18) who could run into Lauren Davis (u) in 3R.
Davis just took out Errani in a QF showing at Eastbourne. A Kvitova-Stephens 4R match-up could be
fascinating, but overall I think Petra’s record of four consecutive QF or
better performances at Wimbledon is likely to continue.
3rd
Round
|
4th
Round
|
Quarters
|
Kvitova (6)
|
|
|
VWilliams
(30)
|
|
|
Stephens
(18)
|
|
|
Davis (u)
|
|
|
Wozniacki
(16)
|
|
|
Stosur (17)
|
|
|
|
Li (2)
|
|
Kvitova d. Li
Semi-finals
All four of my predicted semi-finalists have been to the
final before. Perhaps equally likely to
be added to their number is Sharapova who is in the loaded first quarter.
The potential semi between Serena and Lisicki could be a
fascinating rematch of the last year’s best Wimbledon match, from which Lisicki
emerged triumphant. In the past, Serena
rarely lost twice to the same person.
Her desire for revenge seemed too strong. But recently she has looked more vulnerable
and the result is by no means a foregone conclusion. Nevertheless I think Serena has more tools in
her kit.
SWilliams d. Lisicki
I’ve predicted 2012 finalist ARadwanska against 2011 champ
Kvitova for the second semi. Radwanska
is a counter puncher who seems to do well on grass by staying low and
redirecting shots with her quick and accurate hands. Kvitova on the other hand is a
bull-in-the-china bomber who fires missiles recklessly to all parts of the
court. Kvitova has certainly
demonstrated that she can be massively inconsistent, but like Lisicki, seems to
do well at SW19. If she’s on she could
steamroll Radwanska. But Aggie showed,
in stealing the second set from Serena in the 2012 final, that she is
remarkably resilient and can survive the onslaught. I think there’s a strong chance Kvitova could
derail before the semis, but if she faces ARad, I give the edge to Kvitova.
Kvitova d. ARadwanska
Final
I doubt that Kvitova will get this far, although considering
her draw and her competition I’ve somehow deemed her most likely to do so… If she does make the final, she could provide
a real challenge for Serena. The two
engaged in a deadly fight in 2012, won by Serena. I believe Kvitova has the tools to go one
better this time, but overall, the odds of a Serena triumph are better.
SWilliams d. Kvitova
Odds from Betfair on 20 Jun 2014
Player
|
Odds
|
SWilliams
|
2.72
|
Sharapova
|
9.8
|
Kvitova
|
16
|
Li
|
18
|
Halep
|
19.5
|
Azarenka
|
20
|
ARadwanska
|
21
|
Bouchard
|
23
|
Lisicki
|
26
|
Muguruza
|
34
|
Ivanovic
|
44
|
Wozniacki
|
44
|
VWilliams
|
65
|
Kerber
|
70
|
Stephens
|
70
|
Cibulkova
|
80
|
Vandeweghe
|
80
|
Keys
|
85
|
Mladenovic
|
100
|
Giorgi
|
110
|
Pironkova
|
120
|
Jankovic
|
130
|
Stosur
|
170
|
Safarova
|
170
|
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