Wimbledon Men 2014

Wimbledon Men 2014 – 20 Jun 2014

It’s going to be fascinating to see how this Wimbledon unfolds because there is no clear favourite.  The Big 4 are the favourite-s, for sure.  But I seem easily able to convince myself that any one of them will triumph – and thus none of them really has the edge.  And there’s also the possibility that an outsider will cop the title… maybe Tomas Berdych, Grigor Dimitrov, Ernests Gulbis, Jerzy Janowicz, Richard Gasquet or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  There’s maybe a 20% chance it will be an outsider and then another 20% attached to each of the Big 4.  But that’s not very satisfying and so I hope, by the end of this piece, to have made a pick for winner.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal made five consecutive Wimbledon finals (he didn’t play 2009) and is a two-time champion.  He’s just won the French and his health – back, knees – seems at about its best so far this year.  His confidence should be high after a ninth French title.  Why isn’t he the obvious pick?  The answer is two bad losses in the last two Wimbledons, first and second rounds to be exact.  This year he decided to play the grass tune-up in Halle and lost his first match there.

So does that mean he’s got his early grass court loss out of the way for the year and is now ready to soar?  Or should we expect Nadal to continue his flounder imitation on grass?

The answer is far from clear.  Nadal is 28 years old now, which is when tennis players often start to show signs of losing half a step and a whisker of their hand-eye coordination.  Grass, as a fast surface, is especially demanding of coordination.  Lingering doubts about the reliability of his knees may plague Nadal, and whether they are real or imagined, if doubts slow him down, the effect will be the same.

In some ways Nadal is very much in the same boat as Serena.  The first week will be when he is most vulnerable.  But if he can get to the fourth round he will get tougher and tougher to beat.  If Nadal wins his first match it will be his 700^th match win at the ATP tour level.  My prediction is that if he makes the quarter-finals he will win the tournament, but I am definitely lacking conviction he will get that far.  Regardless, I’ll contradict this by picking him for his quarter but not for the title.

Novak Djokovic

Perspective can be a shifting sand.  Last year at this time, Djokovic had been the dominant player of the previous 2.5 years, with over 100 weeks at #1, and 8 finals in the previous 11 slam tournaments, winning 5 of them.  Now, it looks like he’s doing Ivan Lendl’s career in reverse, winning only 1 of the last 6 slam finals he’s played.

Novak has been admirably consistent and one can only imagine what he would have accomplished if he had not been playing in the Federer-Nadal era.  As Wimbledon begins, Djokovic has been in the top 3 for 244 consecutive weeks, the sixth longest streak of the computer era, eclipsing Nadal by one week.

	Consecutive weeks in top 2	Total weeks  in top 2	Consecutive weeks in top 3	Total weeks  in top 3
Lendl	280	383	464	496
Federer	346	418	432	516
Sampras	173	376	391	457
Connors	293	386	377	594
McEnroe	157	308	374	374
Djokovic	171	197	244	340
Nadal	212	388	243	421

So Novak is staying near the top of the game and is definitely in contention for the title.  But is he the favourite?  He’s been to two Wimbledon finals, and it took a very focussed Andy Murray to unseat him last year.  He’s extremely good on grass and he’s the default choice if the rest of the Big 4 falter.  He may be the most likely to make the final, but I have a feeling he may taste disappointment there again unless he faces an outsider.

Roger Federer

Federer has looked a lot more convincing this year than last.  He’s already got two titles under his belt instead of one last year and seems to be playing better with the larger racquet.  His 4R loss at the French was not a good omen – his worst loss there since 2004 – but overall, with grass a more favoured surface for his fast reflexes and good hands, this Wimbledon may be his best chance to claim another slam title and put greater distance between himself and Nadal in the slam title race – currently at 17 - 13.

He’s looked shaky at times in the last two years.  Sometimes the old brilliance is there, sometimes it’s not.  Which is to be expected with age.  Just shy of his 33^rd birthday, he’s now older than Agassi, Connors, or Laver were when they won their last majors.  Ken Rosewall defied age and won 4 majors after this age, but that was in the dawn of the open era in the early 1970’s.  It’s possible Federer could put together two consistent weeks and appear in the final.  If he makes it that far, he’ll be a good bet to take the title.  But I’m expecting he’ll bobble before then.

Andy Murray

The defending champion should have considerably less pressure to win this year.  The ghost of Fred Perry has been exorcised.  But with less pressure could also come less drive.  I suspect Murray will not feel quite the same sense of desperation to win this year.  That might allow him to play freer, better tennis.  Or it might mean that he gives a little breathing room to his opponents.

After last year’s back operation, he’s struggled to regain his best form in the first half of 2014.  It appeared he might be reaching a high level again with his performances on clay in Rome and Paris.  Losing his second match at Queen’s Club last week was not heartening however.  Chances are he will right the ship for Wimbledon. 

He has an excellent grass court game for the slightly slower grass of recent years.  He keeps a low centre of gravity, and his quick hands make his counter-punching style remarkably effective.  The grass also means his flatter shots bounce low.  Wimbledon is his best major when considering percentage of match wins.

If he had been showing better form and more confidence coming into this Wimbledon, I’d make him the clear favourite.  But all things considered, I give him only slight favourite status, and that because none of his chief opponents make a strong case for winning.  Federer has become generally inconsistent, Djokovic seems to have lost the genius for winning, and Nadal brings questions about his ability to overcome physical hurdles on grass.  It all ends up pointing to the man who has the least downside – and that to my mind is Murray.

Which means that any one of the Big 4 could win the title – or might falter… and that could open the door for an interloper.

Interlopers

Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have both beaten Federer at the big W and have excellent grass court games.  Tsonga has looked to be slipping over the last year and has descended from 3 straight years in the yearend top 10 to fall to #17 on the computer. 

Berdych is still solid, showing SF and QF mettle at the two majors already played this year.  I’d expect about the same for him again.  He could rise up and grab the title, but it would probably mean an off day for a likely Big 4 opponent in the final.  Berdych can outplay just about anyone, but if someone can keep up to his shots he can also start to fall apart very quickly.  An off day for his opponent in the Wimbledon final is not likely.

Richard Gasquet was apparently injured coming into Roland Garros, but seemed to play his way out of it making the third round.  He’s been tearing it up on grass since, making the final in Eastbourne.  He’s been to the semis at All England before.  Despite the long odds, if he were to lift the trophy on the final Sunday, it would probably feel more like a long-awaited vindication to most than a complete surprise.  Gasquet has long been touted as talented.  He’s in with a shot, but it’s a small one.

Grigor Dimitrov would be judged about the same as Gasquet.  A win for either is not expected, but neither would it be a shock.  Dimitrov has been steadily improving and his #13 ranking means he is knocking on the door of the big time.  He seems to have the talent, but does he have the mind to win big?  He’ll need to step it up soon or he’ll start to look more and more Gulbis-like – talented but not able to pull it all together.

Speaking of Gulbis, the recent French semi-finalist will slip out of the top 10 at the start of the tournament.  My instinct is that he will not follow up one good showing with another.  That would be his historical precedent.  But is this a new and improved Gulbis for 2014?  I’m hedging my bets.

The last player I want to consider before looking at the draw is Jerzy Janowicz.  He caused a huge stir last year with a trip to the Wimbledon semis where he put a fearsome scare into all of Great Britain and Murray’s fans.  But it almost seems he’s been victimized by his success and he’s struggled to produce a deep run at any tournament, no matter how small, since.  His draw last year benefited from the early losses of so many stars, so it’s fair to question if he can do it again.  Let’s remember he still had to win those matches last year and that shows grass court proclivity.  If his record since had not been so utterly dismal, I’d be more likely to give him a better shot.  I think he’ll continue to struggle.  Maybe after ridding himself of his best result in the last year, he’ll start to feel more free-flowing once Wimbledon ends.  Or maybe the Wimbledon grass will re-ignite the competitive fire.  I’d say his odds are low.

First Quarter

Because of Wimbledon’s special seeding formula, Djokovic’s better grass court results in the last two years have him leap-frogging Nadal into the top seeding.  It’s irrelevant really, since they wouldn’t meet until the finals either way.  The last two years have showed us that anything is possible at Wimbledon, with major upsets by the likes of Darcis, Rosol, and Stakhovsky, but there’s nothing in the first few rounds of Djokovic’s draw that looks likely to cause him much worry.  Pospisil (seed #31) appears to have the sort of game that might be nettlesome for his opponents, but his height may work against him, when it comes to getting down for low shots. 

The fourth round could bring up Youzhny (17) or Tsonga (14) who should both be taken as very serious grass court threats.  Neither has been in particularly good form of late and are ageing.  A win by Tsonga, who has 5 wins over Novak, is certainly thinkable.  I’ll expect Djokovic to be on high alert and make it through, but the bookies odds, should the match materialize, will probably be closer than Djokovic usually experiences in slam 4Rs.

The second eighth features former Wimbledon finalist Berdych (6) as well as competent grass courters Verdasco (18), Tomic (u), Cilic (18), and Chardy (u), not to mention the ever-dangerous Gulbis(12).  It will be quite the adders nest but the best odds likely lie with Berdych.

Djokovic d. Berdych

Second Quarter

Defending champion Andy Murray is seeded 3.  His eighth looks fairly untroubled.  Rising Bautista Agut (27) could be his first seeded opponent in 3R.  The fourth could bring up Kevin Anderson (20) or maybe unseeded Roger-Vasselin.

The 4^th eighth features a host of young talented players like Dimitrov (11), Dolgopolov (21), Thiem (u), Young (u), Harrison (u), and Carreno Busta (u).  It also has the very respected David Ferrer for a #7 seed.  I look forward with great anticipation to a potential fourth rounder between Dimitrov and Ferrer and the contrasting styles of flash and steadiness.

It should all serve as excellent warm-up material for Murray.

Murray d. Dimitrov

Third Quarter

Roger Federer (4) is the highest seed in this quarter.  The second round could be dangerous for him again this year, bringing up Gilles Muller or Julien Benneteau.  Grass court specialist Mahut should be beatable in round 3.  The fourth round is likely to present last year’s semi-finalist Janowicz, who could provide a very significant challenge if he’s on.

The opposing eighth features some accomplished grass courters – Falla, Istomin and Lu – in addition to the seeds:  Wawrinka (5), Tursunov (32), Isner (9), and the exceptionally potent Feliciano Lopez (19).  Aus Open winner Wawrinka has never looked particularly adept on grass.  Isner has not emerged from the shadow of his epic 9 hour win over Mahut in 2010.  Meanwhile, Lopez has performed with clock-like repetitiveness at SW19, making the quarters every third year since 2005.  I’m betting he does it for the fourth time.

Federer d. Lopez

Fourth Quarter

Nadal (2) will certainly have a chance to face down some demons if he survives his draw.  The first brings up Klizan, who took Nishikori out of the French.  In 2R looms a possible clash with Rosol, who took Nadal out in the same round two years ago.  Nadal will not be caught off guard this time around.  The third could be no easier if it brings up rock-hurling Ivo Karlovic (29).  The monster 6’10” Croatian has been dubbed ‘the lottery’ by Nadal for his incredible serving, which should be especially devastating on grass.  Nadal can definitely find his way through this gauntlet, but if he has a bad day, a loss would not be surprising.

The fourth round has the potential to contain the winner between threateningly adept Frenchmen Monfils or Gasquet.  Nadal fans will not be sleeping easily through Rafa’s minefield draw.  Should Nadal survive these tests, I expect he will begin to win with more predictability in the later rounds.

The other part of this quarter contains Raonic (8), Nishikori (10), Kohlschreiber (22), and Garcia-Lopez (28).  Nishikori is immensely gifted and could certainly do damage, but is also notoriously fragile.  Raonic has shown no proclivity for grass despite a game style that would seem to favour it.  Garcia-Lopez has never been past the 3^rd round here.  That leaves former QFist Kohlschreiber in what should be an easier test for Nadal.

Nadal d. Kohlschreiber

Semi-finals

Although I’ve predicted the Big 4 for the semis, it would surprise me if they all made it that far.  The bottom half especially looks ripe for a repeat of last year’s Wimpocalypse.

If they make it that far, Djokovic should be especially motivated to avenge last year’s final loss to Murray.  But this is Murray’s backyard.

Murray d. Djokovic

I don’t expect Federer to ever beat Nadal again, on any surface.  I’m also highly doubtful Nadal will make the semis – but I give him the best odds of the contenders.

Nadal d. Federer

Final

Murray has only 5 wins to 15 losses versus Nadal, but two of those wins came in the slams.  If Nadal actually makes the final, I’ll probably be favouring his chances, but overall, I think Murray has the best odds of winning the title.  The bookies disagree and give it to Djokovic.

Murray d. Nadal

Odds from Betfair on 20 Jun 2014

Player	Odds
Djokovic	2.92
Murray	5.3
Nadal	6.6
Federer	7.4
Dimitrov	22
Wawrinka	42
Raonic	60
Berdych	65
Gulbis	70
Lopez	110
Tsonga	120
Ferrer	120
Janowicz	140
Nishikori	140
Cilic	180
Isner	200
Gasquet	230
Verdasco	360
Kohlschreiber	410
Brown	410
Anderson	450
Monfils	500
Querrey	550
Dolgopolov	600