2015 Australian Open - Women's Draw

2015 Australian Open – Women’s Draw    

To my mind the top three seeds, Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, and Simona Halep are head and shoulders above the field and should be clear favourites for the Australian title.  But Serena has been in questionable form.  Does that open the door for someone else?

 

First Quarter

For all intents and purposes Serena (1) is the favourite.  The bookies have her as #1 at 3.25 (2.25:1 or 9/4) over her nearest competitor, Sharapova at 6.0.  But Serena hasn’t won the Australian since 2010, going 4r-QF-4R in the last three iterations.  Will she continue to falter early in Melbourne?

Bet365.com odds on 15 Jan 2015

Position	Player	Odds
1	SWilliams	3.25
2	Sharapova	6.0
3	Halep	8.0
4	Kvitova	11
5	Wozniacki	11
6	Azarenka	12
7	Bouchard	12
8	ARadwanska	21

Serena could get Vera Zvonareva in the second round.  Zvonareva is coming back after the better part of two years away, but she does have two wins over Serena.  Round 3 could bring up rising Elina Svitolina (seeded 26).  The 20-year old has wins over Kerber (this year!), Kvitova, and Bouchard. 

The fourth round for Serena might bring up two more dangerous young players, Garbine Muguruza (24) and Saisai Zheng; or possibly Jankovic (15) or Timea Baczinsky – who has a win over Kvitova in 2015.  In all, it looks to be loaded with possible mines for Serena, and that’s just to get to the quarters.

The other half of this quarter features Caroline Wozniacki (8) as the top seed, opposite last year’s finalist, Dominika Cibulkova (11), in a potential fourth rounder.  Wozniacki will need to be sharp for 1R against young, talented, and dangerous Taylor Townsend, ranked 100, age 18.

Next door is an eye-popping first round featuring Victoria Azarenka against Sloane Stephens in a rehash of their 2013 semi-final.  The winner is likely to face Woz.  Who emerges from this fearsome foursome into 3R is anybody’s guess, although the bookies favour Wozniacki by a hair.

Other seeds here are Alize Cornet (19) – three time winner over Serena last year – and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova – last year’s surprise Wimbledon QFist.  I’m not expecting another deep run from Cibulkova, although she might surprise again later in the season.

I’m picking Azarenka over Stephens, and then a highly entertaining contest with Wozniacki over Azarenka.  Serena ‘should’ emerge from this quarter, she has more than enough game to do it, but with so many snares I think she won’t.

Possible match-ups

1R	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF
	SWilliams (1)
	Zvonareva
		Svitolina (26)
	Mugurza (24)
	SZheng
Bacsinsky
Jankovic (15)
		Cibulkova (11)
		Cornet (19)
		ZahlavovaStrycova (25)
Stephens
Azarenka
Townsend
Wozniacki (8)

Wozniacki d. Muguruza

Second Quarter

Petra Kvitova (4) leads this quarter.  She is in good form this year and has declared she wants to take it to the next level in her career – win elsewhere than Wimbledon.  With Petra’s inconsistency nothing is given, but she should be fairly clear until the third round where she could run into young and talented Madison Keys or perennial Aussie over-achiever, Casey Dellacqua (29).  R4 could present perennial Aussie under-achiever Stosur (20), or a resurgent Petkovic (13).  Petkovic can never be underestimated but I would pick an in-form Kvitova should they meet.

The lower half of this quarter is led by Aggie Radwanska (6) who will need to be careful in her first round against Kurumi Nara.  The third might offer Lepchenko (30) or new Aussie (former Croatian) Tomljanovic both of whom are capable of a big day.  But ARad’s 4R could get REALLY interesting if she meets seeds Pennetta (12) or the redoubtable Venus Williams (18).  Pennetta started strongly last year then faded, and Venus has just been getting stronger and stronger of late.  She’s already claimed a title this year and with a title-winning span of 18 years is just the 4^th woman in the open era to reach this milestone, tied with Evert and Martinez, and behind Martina Navratilova who won at least one for an incredible 21 consecutive years.

Radwanska has taken on volleyer Navratilova as coach, but will the lessons stand up if she runs into the real deal in Venus?  I think a part deux of Kvitova vs Venus ‘s Wimbledon classic last year could be enthralling.

Possible match-ups

1R	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF
		Kvitova (4)
	Keys
	Dellacqua (29)
		Stosur (20)
		Petkovic (13)
		Pennetta (12)
		VWilliams (18)
	Lepchenko (30)
	Tomljanovic
		ARadwanska (6)

VWilliams d. Kvitova

Third Quarter

I expect little difficulty for Simona Halep (3) in sweeping to the quarters over the struggling seeds in her section, Errani (14), Pavlyuchenkova (23), and Lisicki (28).  She really seems a cut above.

The top half of the quarter is more interesting with Ivanovic (5) and 17-year old Belinda Bencic (32) as possible 3R foes.  I’ll be curious to see if 18-year old Oceane Dodin can surmount Alison Riske, with Karolina Pliskova (22) a likely second rounder.  KaPliskova (to distinguish her from twin sister Kristina Pliskova) could then run into is-she-really-the-10^th-seed Makarova (10) in round three.  Both are playing very well of late and Makarova’s new-found consistency will be matched by KaPliskova’s burgeoning results.  But it’s tough to choose against Ivanovic for the quarters, with KaPliskova my second choice.

Halep could get into a real tussle against Ivanovic’s superior fire-power.  But Halep has been playing too well of late and could contend for the title with her accurate laser-like strokes.

Possible match-ups

1R	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF
		Ivanovic (5)
		Bencic (32)
	KaPliskova (22)
Riske
Dodin
		Makarova (10)
		Errani (14)
		Pavlyuchenkova (23)
		Lisicki (28)
		Halep (3)

Halep d. Ivanovic

Fourth Quarter

The last quarter leads off with Eugenie Bouchard (7) who has been in variable form.  It would not surprise me to see her fall to an upset.  The nearest seed is Kuznetsova (27) who has become perilously inconsistent.  Kuzzie last won a slam at the 2009 French, but looks very far from that now.  She opens against up and coming Caroline Garcia who has wins over Jankovic, Kerber, Errani, Venus, and ARadwanska.  Kuznetsova can still rise up and beat anyone on the right day, but I think the odds are with Garcia.

Seeded to meet Bouchard in 4R are Kerber (9) or Carla Suarez Navarro (17).  CSN appears to be in reasonable form, and the consistent, defensive Kerber can never be counted out.  In the end, Bouchard has a good draw, but I have a feeling that if she lasts that long, she will go down to Garcia or Kerber.

The bottom half of the quarter features Maria Sharapova (2) who opened the season in sterling form with a victory at Brisbane in three tough sets over Ivanovic.  In 3R she could meet 21-year old Zarina Diyas (31) who won 7 matches in the slams last year.

Seventeen-year old Ana Konjuh could run into Shuai Peng (17) in round two.  Konjuh made R3 at Wimbledon and I’m very curious how she will handle the pressure here.  In R3, the winner could meet Safarova (16) who made QF here in 2007 and SF at Wimbledon last year.

I expect Sharapova to roll over everyone here like a juggernaut.

Possible match-ups

1R	2R	3R	4R	QF	SF
		Bouchard (7)
Garcia
Kuznetsova (27)
		Suarez Navarro (17)
		Kerber (9)
		Safarova (16)
	Konjuh
	Peng (21)
		Diyas (31)
		Sharapova (2)

Sharapova d. Kerber

Semis

I must be crazy to predict that Serena Williams will not make the semis.  She is the dominant player in the game with the biggest set of weapons.  Yet I am not convinced she will concentrate her way through.  Perhaps I’m in a contrary mood.

If Wozniacki and Venus should meet as I predict, the head to head will definitely be in Venus’ favour.  She’s 6-0 against Caroline including a win last week in the Auckland final.  It was a 3-setter, and Caroline has been getting tougher and tougher, but Venus’ aggressive game matches well against Wozniacki’s defensive one.  Another victory for Venus would seem likely.

VWilliams d. Wozniacki

In the second semi I’ve predicted a rematch of last year’s Roland Garros final between Sharapova and Halep.  Sharapova won the match, as she has all 5 of their encounters.  The last 3 matches all went 3 sets and were close.  I believe Halep is still learning things and is improving.  Sharapova seems to be holding steady.  I suspect that, should they meet, Halep will finally get that first victory.

Halep d. Sharapova

Final

I have surprised myself by picking Venus for the final.  It seems like a big ask from a 34-year old player.  I think that if Halep or Sharapova should make the final they will win.  Venus has a 3-5 record with Sharapova, but leads Halep 3-0, although they did not meet in 2014 in the year of Halep’s ascendance.  She is aggressive, accurate, and consistent, and therefore I think Halep should be favoured to take the final.

Halep d. VWilliams

Last Thoughts

It is no stretch to imagine an Ivanovic-Kvitova final or a Bouchard-Wozniacki final.  And certainly Serena could rise up and crush all opposition and likely will since I’ve predicted against her.  This draws feels wide open to me and I’m reasonably confident I’ve got most of my predictions wrong.  We shall see.

Bet365.com odds on 15 Jan 2015:

Position	Player	Odds
1	SWilliams	3.25
2	Sharapova	6.0
3	Halep	8.0
4	Kvitova	11
5	Wozniacki	11
6	Azarenka	12
7	Bouchard	12
8	ARadwanska	21
9	Ivanovic	26
10	VWilliams	34
11	Muguruza	34
12	Stephens	41
13	Makarova	41
14	Kerber	41
15	KaPliskova	41
16	Safarova	51
17	Stosur	67
18	Jankovic	67
19	Jankovic	67
20	Cibulkova	67
21	Keys	67