WTA – 2014 Yearend and 2015 Forecasts
The year was full of surprises: Simona Halep, Eugenie Bouchard, Petra
Kvitova, Victoria Azarenka, Ana Ivanovic, even Serena Williams and her ‘bestie’
Caroline Wozniacki. After a
scintillating 2013 in which Serena Williams won more matches and titles than in
any previous year, had her best ever match-winning percentage, and crowned it
with two slam titles, I suppose a letdown was not surprising. But 2014 was as notable for how many women
stepped up and put pressure on her – not the least of whom was Alize Cornet who
took 3 matches from Serena.
Serena Williams
It’s hard to call it a bad year when she wins more titles
than anyone else (7) and takes the US Open and WTA Finals. But by her standards, she looked vulnerable.
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|
2014 WTA titles
|
|
SWilliams
|
7
|
|
Sharapova
|
4
|
|
Ivanovic
|
4
|
|
Kvitova
|
3
|
|
Petkovic
|
3
|
|
Li
|
2
|
|
Halep
|
2
|
|
Karolina Pliskova
|
2
|
|
Pavlyuchenkova
|
2
|
Interestingly, only 9 women won at least two titles this
year on the main WTA circuit. Serena was
by far the class of the field. But she
struggled at the slams, especially the first three. Her showing of only six total match wins in 3
consecutive slams was her worst in 15 years when she was only 17 years old.
Serena has now tied Navratilova and Evert at 18 slam singles
wins, and will be eager to get nearer Margaret Court’s record of 24. Beating such a record may loom in her mind to
some degree. She claimed that getting to
#18 was a mental block that may have contributed to her poor play at the early
slams in 2014. Perhaps she will now feel
free to chalk up a few more.
But how much is age a factor? She turned 33 in September and will be that
age for the slams in 2015. The only
major player to win a slam title at 33 or older (born after 1900) is
Navratilova who was 33 when she took Wimbledon 1990. This suggests slam titles will be very
difficult to acquire at her age.
But she did finish #1 last year, and looking for challengers
to take over the reins does not seem promising at first glance. Halep and Bouchard burst on the scene last
year and might be possibilities… especially Halep who actually has a win over
Serena and pushed her in the yearend championships. Sharapova can claim slams, but only if Serena
loses to others it seems. Petra Kvitova
might be a threat, especially at Wimbledon.
No one else has her raw power, but she has yet to notch a win against
Serena in 5 attempts. Victoria Azarenka
has 3 wins against Serena and already owns two slam titles. But after missing most of last year she’s
currently ranked #42. Wozniacki looked
close to beating Serena last year at times, so can’t be ruled out.
Basically, I see only two options for Serena not being #1
next year: 1. we see new levels from
Halep/Kvitova/Azarenka/Wozniacki; or 2. Serena self-destructs. Neither of these options looks likely, so
barring injury, another year at #1 for Serena would seem
prediction-worthy.
I think two slam titles should be well within reason,
although which two is anybody’s guess.
Three straight US Opens (the first since Chris Evert) are potentially a
good augur for victory there, and maybe the fast courts of Wimbledon, to give a
little extra edge to her serve.
Certainly the final I would be pulling for at Wimby would be Serena
against an in-form Kvitova. Fireworks!
Ka-boom!
Outside of the slams, an 8th Miami title is a reasonable
bet, and perhaps Madrid or Stanford which seem to be favourites of hers. She’ll be the favourite every time she takes
the court, and a calendar slam is not out of the question, if highly
unlikely. I’ll be expecting some off
days too.
Maria Sharapova
Sharapova claimed a 5th glorious slam in 2014 –
all won in even years by some strange coincidence. She’s now made the last three French finals,
and may be the game’s current premier clay-court player… as long as Serena
loses to someone else. Maria has lost 13
straight times to her rival, including 6 in the last two years.
With 5 slam titles and 33 singles titles overall, Sharapova
is easily the second most accomplished player on tour. Only one player in the top ten, Serena, has a
winning head-to-head with her. It’s
almost strange she has never occupied the yearend #1 spot on the computer
(although paradoxically she did receive the WTA award as #1 for 2004). There appears to be little change on the
horizon for Sharapova. Her game does not
seem to be evolving and there are no radical coaching changes. We should expect more of the same from her
singly focused hard-hitting game.
Given the depth of the upcoming talent and Serena’s
tenaciousness, I’d say Sharapova has about a 50% chance of nabbing another slam
this year, which could be anywhere. Since Serena seems most vulnerable on clay,
Maria’s best chance is probably at the French.
Outside that, another 3 or 4 titles would seem about par for the course.
Simona Halep
Halep advanced as high as #2 this year, from a yearend finish
of #11 last year, and settles at #3 for 2014.
Her rise has been steady over the last few years 81-53-47-11-3. But further improvement could be difficult. The two women above her are entrenched. It will take a very big push to displace
Serena or Sharapova.
In 2014 she made the final at Roland Garros and at the
Yearend Championships, beating Serena along the way. There’s no question Halep is the real
deal. At this point the only remaining
terra incognita is a slam triumph. To my mind she’s pretty much even with
Sharapova in likelihood to take a slam next year, in the event that Serena
falters.
I think Halep will have an excellent shot at the French
open, and a good chance anywhere else as well.
Another 3 or so tour titles also seem reasonable. A yearend finish of #1 is within reason, but
it would be because Serena is off. I
don’t see Halep as capable of dominating a healthy Serena, and she still needs
to notch a first victory over Sharapova after 5 attempts.
Petra Kvitova
After two and a half years of disappointing her fans, Petra
Kvitova rose from the ashes and seized the Wimbledon title. After surviving a concerted effort from a
formidable Venus Williams in 3R, Kvitova slashed to victory over successive opponents,
demolishing Bouchard in the final to the loss of only 3 games.
Her high-risk style is capable of such great heights, but we
have also become accustomed to inexplicable losses and consistent
inconsistency. Having now erased all
possible doubt that her first Wimbledon title in 2011 was a fluke, she has
announced that she is seeking to raise her game for 2015.
She seems one of the few players able to match Serena’s
power, possibly even exceeding it at times.
It would be with great relish that I would welcome more consistent play
from one so obviously talented. She has
the potential to make things interesting at the top of the WTA.
However I don’t expect her to be a Serena beater, against
whom she’s 0 and 5. She showed in 2011
that she can win 6 tournaments in a year, so some consistently higher play is
possible... or maybe that playing at
high level can happen more frequently than she has allowed in the last 3 years.
For 2015 I’ll expect that she will win a few more titles
than we’ve become accustomed to from her.
A win at a slam outside of Wimbledon is also a possibility. It will be interesting to see what a truly
motivated Kvitova is capable of... but she faces some very steep competition in
the 3 women ranked above her, not to mention Bouchard, Ivanovic, and Wozniacki.
Wimbledon may be the true litmus. With Kvitova now owning a better record than
Serena at the AEC over the last 5 years, and with Petra’s open designs on more
trophies, I would expect Serena will be uber-motivated to reclaim the hallowed
turf. In a showdown I’d probably favour
Serena, but against the field I make Kvitova the favourite for Wimbledon.
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Wimbledon Record – 2010-2014
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Wins
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Losses
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Ratio
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Kvitova
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26
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3
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0.897
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SWilliams
|
22
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3
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0.880
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Lisicki
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19
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4
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0.826
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Bartoli
|
14
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3
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0.824
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Bouchard
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8
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2
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0.800
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ARadwanska
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18
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5
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0.783
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Li Na
Li started off 2014 with a bang. She made her third trip to the Australian
Open final, this time against surprise finalist, Dominika Cibulkova, whom she
handled fairly easily. At the time she
said there was no reason not to keep playing for a long time, since she was
still winning. After winning her first two
tournaments of the year, she made SF in Indian Wells and the Final in Miami and
was 22-3 to that point. A campaign for
yearend #1 seemed possible and whispers of ‘calendar slam’ were heard.
But she bombed out of the first round of the French and by
mid-year her tune had changed radically.
She decided to retire from the game, citing an uncooperative physique
after a 3R showing at Wimbledon. She
finishes a truncated year with the second best win percentage on tour, although
it’s likely this might have been a little lower in a full year.
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2014 match wins
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Losses
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Ratio
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SWilliams
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52
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8
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0.867
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Li
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28
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7
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0.800
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Sharapova
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49
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13
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0.790
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Ivanovic
|
58
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17
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0.773
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Halep
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46
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16
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0.742
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Kvitova
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43
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16
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0.729
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Wozniacki
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49
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19
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0.721
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ARadwanska
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47
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22
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0.681
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Kerber
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47
|
24
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0.662
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Bouchard
|
45
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23
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0.662
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Azarenka
|
15
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9
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0.625
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Cibulkova
|
33
|
24
|
0.579
|
I’m sorry to see her depart the game. With 2 slam titles out of 4 slam finals, she
was a welcome addition to the upper echelon.
She was the peer of Sharapova, Kvitova, and Azarenka, although all of
these still rank a notch below Serena in my estimation. This may be why Serena’s departure does not
look imminent – she still has no equal to push her from the game. This was not so in the early part of her
career when Venus, Henin, Clijsters, Hingis, and Davenport could match her toe
to toe. So until her level drops, or the
almost top tier (of which Li was a part) can together overcome her, Serena
stays on top. The game is weakened by
Li’s departure; her sharp game and clever tongue will be missed.
Ana Ivanovic
After five years of floundering around a ranking of 20,
Ivanovic rises to the height of her past greatness with a yearend ranking of
5. It was unexpected, this sudden
resurgence, and I’m not yet willing to trust that it will last.
She started off well by winning Auckland and defeating
Serena at the Australian Open. Although
she had some fine results with 4 tournament victories, she does not appear to
be at the level she was at in 2007-08 when she made three slam finals and
achieved #1 on the computer. But she
should be proud of 2014’s accomplishments and ready to build on them for 2015.
Perhaps she will prove me wrong, but I do not expect that
she will be a top contender at the major tournaments. I think the others around her are just too
tough and hungry. Plus there’s that
flawed serve of hers. Her forehand is a
true weapon, but with serve weakness, closing out matches will always be
difficult. Although she did well
elsewhere, she did not do better at the slams than her opening QF showing at
AO. For 2015 I think she may improve her
slam performances, but I doubt any will exceed the SF stage.
Agnieszka Radwanska
It was another solid effort from Radwanska, her sixth year
in the yearend top 10. She made the
semis in Australia, playing brilliantly to beat two-time defending champ
Azarenka in the QF, but lost disappointingly to Cibulkova. Then she finessed her way to the final in
Indian Wells, before losing inexplicably badly to Pennetta. Her year seemed only to simmer from there,
until she made a statement in Montreal taking out 5 quality opponents,
including Azarenka and Venus, to claim the title.
But after coming so seemingly close in Australia, she now
looks like not much of a threat to take a slam title. She’s slipped from 4 to 5 to 6 in the last
two years, and will probably have to fight like mad not to go down further in
2015. Power and winners seem her
weaknesses. She’s taken on Martina
Navratilova for 2015 as probably the highest profile coach of all in the recent
celebrity coach craze.
Coach and player do not appear to have similar games, but
perhaps Radwanska will learn to make up for her lack of ground-stroke power
with forays to the net. It could be
enlightening and transformative, but to be honest, I’m not expecting improved
results from Aggie this year... too many other sharks in the water. I’ll look for a title or two and maybe a SF
spot at one of the slams. But I will
continue to enjoy her genius, soft hands and brilliant shot-making.
Eugenie Bouchard
Genie blew by all expectations in a breakout year that saw
her reach two slam semis and the final at Wimbledon. At 20 years old this is worth sitting up for
and taking notice. The big question to
my mind is if she is going to go all Sloane Stephens on us and virtually
disappear in her sophomore year?
I do expect a bit of a dip this year, but I’m guessing she’s
not going to go as far away as Sloane left us.
When I watched Bouchard in 2014 I wondered how she was winning all those
matches. There didn’t seem to be any one
facet of her game that should warrant the amazing results. Granted there were no real weaknesses, but
there didn’t seem to be any particular weapons either. What it seems, then, is that it is her mental
toughness and ability to concentrate that are her biggest weapons – not unlike
Chris Evert, perhaps.
For 2015 I’m expecting a bit of a letdown, but I think she
should then rebound and probably end up near her current slot (#7) by
yearend. It seems her game is
best-suited to grass, so maybe another fine result at Wimbledon is in the
offing, although a title there will be very tough to come by with the likes of
Serena and Kvitova to battle. Yet
Bartoli took Wimbledon only two years ago, so victory by an underdog is not
unthinkable. For one more year at least,
I expect Bouchard to be an underdog. The
question she will be answering this year (to my mind) is if her mental strength
is enough to overcome the weapons of bigger hitters. I will look for a couple slam semis in 2015
and maybe some titles to add to the Bouchard resume.
Caroline Wozniacki
Wozniacki looked down and out this year. Then she got dumped by her fiancée, and
suddenly she started to revive. In
addition to completing the New York City marathon in a quick 3:26, Wozniacki
made her tennis talk in the last half of the year. She won Istanbul in July, posted decent
results on the summer hard court swing, and made her second US Open final. She also played the most compelling match of
the WTA finals: a third set 7-6(6) loss
to Serena in the semis. After 4.5 years
in the top 10, Wozniacki dropped below 10 in January, but clawed back in
September.
The overriding feeling at the end of the year was that
Wozniacki was reborn and is on the ascendance.
She seems to have added more aggression to her game. This year I’ll expect her to play more
consistently at the start of the year, but I’m not yet ready to believe her
game will have more than its 2010 incarnation.
I see her staying near the middle of the top 10 next year, winning a
couple of tournaments, and making a slam SF or two.
Dominika Cibulkova
After long demonstrating the ability to rise up and beat top
players, Cibulkova was type-cast as dangerous but stuck in the top 20. After storming to the Aus Open final,
suddenly that changed and she finishes the year at #10 in what is probably a
career year. Despite the big game, she
hasn’t shown the consistency to keep it coming.
I’ll expect her back around 20 by year’s end, but surprising me with
something much better is possible.
Ekaterina Makarova
Makarova had a wonderful Wimbledon, knocking off ARadwanska
in a QF showing. She then took out
Kvitova in a SF finish at Montreal, and, most impressively, made the US Open
semis with victories over Bouchard and Azarenka. I will not be expecting her to become
entrenched in the top 10, but she may continue to have some solid results and
could even morph into a women’s version of Wawrinka – peaking in her late 20’s
– she’s now 26.
Alize Cornet
Anyone who beats Serena three times in one year against no
losses is worthy of mention. I won’t be
expecting that streak to continue, but Cornet certainly showed she can play
with the big girls. I’ll expect her to
remain in the second 10 for 2015.
Venus Williams
The year amounted to a comeback for Venus, climbing about 30
spots back up to #18 in the year she turned 34.
Her best results were the title in Dubai and a runner-up showing in
Montreal that included a victory over her younger sister. She also nearly took out eventual champ
Kvitova at Wimbledon. I think Venus is
going to continue to rise in 2015 and may get close to the top 10. A good showing at Wimbledon would not be a
surprise.
Victoria Azarenka
It was a very tough year for Azarenka and she’s on record
saying she’d like to forget the whole thing.
The two time defending champ at the Australian Open went down in the
quarters and also made the quarters at the US Open. These would have been middling results in
other years, but were by far her best of 2014.
For 2015 we will hope that she can stay healthy, but even if she does, it
will likely take her awhile to become a top player again. If things go well, she could be challenging
the other top women by mid-year and may threaten for the US Open title.
Up and Comers
Garbine Muguruza – rank 20, age 21 – showed off her big game
at the French, taking out Serena and making the quarters. Before that she won 8 consecutive matches out
of the qualies to take the title in Hobart and made the fourth round at the
Australian, taking out Wozniacki. After
some modest summer results, she showed signs of life again in the late
fall. I think she will continue to rise
in 2015. I’ll be looking for 3 to 5 big
results from her and to start knocking on the door of the top 10. A reasonable goal would be a slam SF.
Karolina Pliskova – rank 23, age 22 – is notable for winning
two tour-level titles in 2014. She also
beat 9th ranked Ivanovic at the US Open. She plays a lot of small events, but I think
she has the potential to entrench in the top 20 this year. I won’t be looking for a slam breakthrough,
but a deep run could start to transform her career.
Elina Svitolina – rank 28, age 20 – had some good wins in
2014, notching victories over Kvitova, Kerber, and Bouchard. These results mean she has potential for more
improvement. I’ll be curious if she can
make top 20 in 2015.
Madison Keys – rank 30, age 19 – had her best result on
grass, beating then #7 Jankovic, and taking the title in Eastbourne. She’s young enough that her best tennis
should be ahead. It’s hard to know how
high she can rise, but top 10 is starting to look more like a career goal than
a next year goal.
Belinda Bencic – rank 32, age 17 – burst on the scene in
2014 with 6 straight wins starting in the qualies through to the semis at
Charleston. But the best was yet to
come: a QF spot at the US Open, taking
out two top 10 seeds along the way. This
is very impressive stuff for a 17-year old.
She could be one of the games future stars. I’ll expect about top 15 for her in 2015
although a huge slam breakout is not impossible.
Sloane Stephens – rank 36, age 21 – definitely slumped after
a breakout 2013 took her to #11 in the world.
But it wasn’t all bad. She made
4R at the Aus Open and French, and QF in Indian Wells. She’s still got great potential, but at this
point it looks like harnessing her mind is the chief challenge. I’ll expect her to start battling back in
2015 and she may even get back to the top 20.
The potential for her to be an eventual top 10 player remains.
Caroline Garcia – rank 37, age 21 – halved her ranking in
2014. She took the title in Bogota
beating Jankovic in the final, then in Madrid she beat Kerber and Errani, and
at Wuhan she beat Venus Williams and ARadwanska. These impressive streaks of results suggest
that she has a big game that can take her higher if she can gain consistency. Top 20 is within reason for 2015.
Donna Vekic – rank 82, age 18 – is still so young but has
stalled at this ranking for about 2 years.
I’ve stopped expecting significant improvements from her.
Katerina Siniakova – rank 84, age 18 – climbed from #211
last year, her most impressive result being the semis at the 470 pointer in
Moscow. Top 50 would seem a reasonable
goal for next year.
Ana Konjuh – rank 93, age 17 – rose 180 spots in 2014 before
turning 17 at the very end of December.
She won 3 rounds of qualifying at Wimbledon, and then two main draw
rounds. I’ll be watching closely to see
if she can go higher in 2015 and notch some wins against some big names. The jury is still out on whether she has the
potential of a Bencic or will stall like Vekic.
Taylor Townsend – rank 103, age 18 – gained 200 spots in
2014 and made the third round at Roland Garros, with a win over Cornet along
the way. As she starts to play less ITF
events and more WTA events, it will be interesting to see if she can raise her
game further. Top 50 would a worthy
accomplishment for 2015.
Catherine Bellis – rank 254, age 15 – splashed into the
public eye by beating Cibulkova at the US Open.
She capped her year with two ITF tournament victories. She’s very young but the signals are very
good. She may crack the first 100 in
2015.
Other names on the radar – Victoria Duval, Saisai Zheng,
Francoise Abanda
Most interesting to me of this group – Bencic, Muguruza, Garcia,
Konjuh, Bellis
2014 Rankings
For my 2014 rankings I follow the WTA yearend rankings,
except that I insert the now-retired Li Na at #5 to honour her Australian Open
title. Li was #9 when she was discontinued
from the WTA rankings on 10 Nov 2014.
The WTA rankings see the addition of three new players to
the yearend top 10 – Halep, Bouchard, and Cibulkova. Additionally, Ivanovic returns after a 5-year
absence.
2015 Predictions – Top Ten
Picking Serena for #1 next year was not too tough. The small signs of self-destruction were
wiped away by her USO and YEC wins, not to mention her 5 other titles. She does not yet have a worthy challenger.
I wrestled long and hard over #2. Sharapova is a proven multi-slam champion and
her competitive desire can never be questioned.
But she also seems to be treading water.
Halep is still hungry and has shown she can hang with anyone. I’m looking for an even bigger push in 2015
than she gave us in 2014 so she gets #2.
I would like to put Kvitova higher. I think she finally has the right attitude to
push for the very top, but until I see more consistency from her I’m not a
believer. That said, the top 4 are in a
league above the rest, in my opinion.
They are all capable of #1, I believe.
Radwanska gets my nod for #5 for next year because I think
Navratilova may be able to add enough to her game to keep her relevant. At #6 I’m optimistic that Wozniacki will
continue her surge of more-aggressive play.
I expect a bit of a slump from Bouchard at #7, but think she will come
on strong toward the end of the year and get back to #7.
Despite good things from Ivanovic this year, I think she
will tail off a little in the face of the strong competition put up by everyone
else, but think she can stay in the top 10 at around #8.
Picking #s 9 and 10 is where it gets dicey. There are at least 8 good candidates for the
last two spots. Andrea Petkovic has been
coming back steadily from injury. The
former top-tenner is back to #13. She won
the season-ender in Sofia. Makarova has
been on a steady upswing and has the game to take down the best. Cibulkova has the talent to be a long-term
top-tenner, but not perhaps the consistency.
Venus Williams talent is undeniable and she seems to be managing her
Sjogren’s effectively. Her reascendance
to the top 10 would be welcomed by many.
Belinda Bencic doesn’t have far to go to get to #10 and will probably
get there one day. Will this be her
break out year? Garbine Muguruza looks
to have lots of potential and is already at #20 – will she be tough enough to
put up some consistent results?
Angelique Kerber has been in the yearend top 10 for 3
straight years. There seems little new
to expect from her defensive game except more consistent results. It’s a boring choice, I’d love to slot
Muguruza or Bencic in, but in the end I expect Kerber will continue to play
well.
My choice for #9 may be risky given her disastrous 2014, but
the talent of Victoria Azarenka is undeniable.
I think she’ll struggle at first but then start finding her way back to
the late rounds of big events.
2015 Slam Predictions
At the Australian Open
I think Serena is the clear favourite, even though she hasn’t won since 2010,
same as Roger Federer. Of course she has
the potential to falter and open the door for someone else, but there’s no one who’s
head to head makes me think they should beat Serena (well... possibly
Cornet!). Sharapova’s hard-hitting game
and Halep’s craftier one are probably next best on these courts, now that Li is
gone. Kvitova could annex the title if
she can keep concentrating as we have seen only at Wimbledon from her. Safarova may have a good result here, too.
Roland Garros has been
kind to Sharapova, winning 2 titles from 3 finals in the last 3 years. I think Serena is on some level the favourite
at every tournament she plays, but she has faltered so frequently at the
French, I’m casting my vote behind Maria’s consistent performances. Halep looked very convincing in a runner-up
performance last year, and a title from her here would not surprise. Perhaps Muguruza will have another good run
here, and Kuznetsova can never be counted out on this surface. Maybe Bencic will break out.
At Wimbledon Serena
could be deemed the favourite but recent history suggests Kvitova may be a more
reliable choice. I would love to see a
showdown between them for the title.
Lisicki thrives at the big W.
Bouchard and Radwanska seem particularly adept on this surface, and I
won’t be overlooking Venus Williams.
On hard at the US Open,
Serena Williams, 3-time defending champion will be trying to match Chris
Evert’s record 4 consecutive titles (shared with Jacobs and Mallory). Halep will likely be extremely hungry by
then, if she hasn’t hoisted slam hardware yet.
Wozniacki seems to like these courts, and perhaps Azarenka will be ready
to make another assault on the citadel.
Charles’ Slam Predictions
Bookies Odds from Bet 365 on 16 Dec 2014.
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