If there were no Big 4…
Nishikori would rule the world!
Here’s why. I
compared the head-to-heads of the current top 12 (substituting Tsonga for
FLopez, since Jo-W has quite a history in the top 10). After the Big 4 is, what I’m calling, the
Next 8. Here’s their h2h % against the rest
of the top 12:
Nishikori
|
51.6%
|
Wawrinka
|
40.8%
|
Ferrer
|
38.2%
|
Tsonga
|
33.0%
|
Berdych
|
32.8%
|
Cilic
|
26.8%
|
Raonic
|
24.5%
|
Dimitrov
|
22.7%
|
Wawrinka has a slam title and Ferrer was in the top 5 for
quite a while – is he the best player never to win a slam? But I was surprised to see Kei at the top of
this list. He’s really blossomed in the
last year, but I didn’t think that was enough time to top a career (so far)
list. That tells me he’s been at his
winning ways for a while.
On the bottom end, Dimitrov and Raonic are distinctly not looking
like world-beating talents about to seize the mantle from the Big 4. Tsonga and Berdych are solidly mid-pack,
which describes their careers neatly, and Cilic is, well, surprisingly good at
times – does he even belong in this group?
Hard to leave him out with that slam title in his back pocket.
Looking at their records against just each other (the Next 8),
the picture changes only slightly.
Nishikori
|
65.9%
|
Wawrinka
|
64.2%
|
Ferrer
|
54.3%
|
Tsonga
|
40.6%
|
Berdych
|
40.4%
|
Cilic
|
31.4%
|
Raonic
|
24.0%
|
Dimitrov
|
23.8%
|
The order is exactly the same, but Wawrinka moves much
closer to Nishikori in percentage. Kei’s
been very good against his fellow 2nd stringers, but has suffered
under the Big 4. In fact, the best
records against the Big 4 come from Ferrer, Tsonga, and Berdych, who have
obviously learned a thing or two over the years. Against Big 4:
Ferrer
|
29.4%
|
Tsonga
|
28.8%
|
Berdych
|
27.0%
|
Raonic
|
25.0%
|
Nishikori
|
23.8%
|
Wawrinka
|
22.4%
|
Cilic
|
22.2%
|
Dimitrov
|
21.7%
|
The one constant is that Dimitrov is bottom of the pack in
every measure. Perhaps he does not quite
belong in this group.
Looking at the numbers put up by the Big 4 brings another
layer of perspective. They are very
good. They are a cut above the Next 8. Against the rest of the Big 4:
Nadal
|
64.2%
|
Djokovic
|
51.4%
|
Federer
|
44.7%
|
Murray
|
35.3%
|
But it’s interesting to me how close Kei’s numbers are to
Murray’s. Kei actually edges out Murray
vs the top 8, and that carries him to a slight advantage vs the top 12, too. Versus Next 8:
Nadal
|
83.2%
|
Djokovic
|
81.7%
|
Federer
|
81.5%
|
Murray
|
65.0%
|
Nishikori
|
65.9%
|
And here are the numbers of the Big 4 against the whole top
12:
Nadal
|
73.7%
|
Djokovic
|
66.5%
|
Federer
|
62.9%
|
Murray
|
51.4%
|
The closeness of Kei to Murray vs the Next 8 and the Top 12
suggest that Kei is nearly in the same class as Murray, with the caveat that
Kei trails vs the Big 4. It makes me
think it would be VERY surprising if Kei, with his talent and record, did not
win a slam title at some point. While
Murray is clearly above the Next 8, he is also clearly behind the other 3 of
the Big 4. He, and possibly Kei, are occupying
a middle ground between the two groups.
The other take away is that Nadal is clearly the top of this
very elite field. He’s untouchable in
every category and is the only player with a winning record against every other
player in this group of 12. In fact he
is the only slam winner in the open era to not have a losing record against
any other slam winner.
Here’s the detail:
01-Apr-15
|
Djo
|
Fed
|
Mur
|
Nad
|
Nis
|
Rao
|
Fer
|
Ber
|
Waw
|
Cil
|
Dim
|
Tso
|
wins
|
Djokovic
|
18
|
17
|
19
|
3
|
5
|
13
|
18
|
17
|
11
|
5
|
13
|
139
|
|
Federer
|
20
|
12
|
10
|
3
|
9
|
16
|
13
|
15
|
5
|
3
|
11
|
117
|
|
Murray
|
8
|
11
|
5
|
3
|
2
|
9
|
5
|
8
|
10
|
5
|
10
|
76
|
|
Nadal
|
23
|
23
|
15
|
7
|
5
|
22
|
18
|
12
|
2
|
5
|
8
|
140
|
|
Nishikori
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
7
|
3
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
32
|
|
Raonic
|
0
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
13
|
|
Ferrer
|
5
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
8
|
7
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
50
|
|
Berdych
|
2
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
2
|
5
|
43
|
|
Wawrinka
|
3
|
2
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
4
|
6
|
11
|
8
|
2
|
3
|
49
|
|
Cilic
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
19
|
|
Dimitrov
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
10
|
|
Tsonga
|
6
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
30
|
|
losses
|
70
|
69
|
72
|
50
|
30
|
40
|
81
|
88
|
71
|
52
|
34
|
61
|
wins
|
win%
|
v big4 wins
|
big 4 losses
|
big 4 %
|
next 8 wins
|
next 8 losses
|
next 8 %
|
|
Djokovic
|
139
|
66.5%
|
54
|
51
|
51.4%
|
85
|
19
|
81.7%
|
Federer
|
117
|
62.9%
|
42
|
52
|
44.7%
|
75
|
17
|
81.5%
|
Murray
|
76
|
51.4%
|
24
|
44
|
35.3%
|
52
|
28
|
65.0%
|
Nadal
|
140
|
73.7%
|
61
|
34
|
64.2%
|
79
|
16
|
83.2%
|
Nishikori
|
32
|
51.6%
|
5
|
16
|
23.8%
|
27
|
14
|
65.9%
|
Raonic
|
13
|
24.5%
|
7
|
21
|
25.0%
|
6
|
19
|
24.0%
|
Ferrer
|
50
|
38.2%
|
25
|
60
|
29.4%
|
25
|
21
|
54.3%
|
Berdych
|
43
|
32.8%
|
20
|
54
|
27.0%
|
23
|
34
|
40.4%
|
Wawrinka
|
49
|
40.8%
|
15
|
52
|
22.4%
|
34
|
19
|
64.2%
|
Cilic
|
19
|
26.8%
|
8
|
28
|
22.2%
|
11
|
24
|
31.4%
|
Dimitrov
|
10
|
22.7%
|
5
|
18
|
21.7%
|
5
|
16
|
23.8%
|
Tsonga
|
30
|
33.0%
|
17
|
42
|
28.8%
|
13
|
19
|
40.6%
|
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