Skip to main content

If there were no Big 4...

If there were no Big 4…

Nishikori would rule the world!

Here’s why.  I compared the head-to-heads of the current top 12 (substituting Tsonga for FLopez, since Jo-W has quite a history in the top 10).  After the Big 4 is, what I’m calling, the Next 8.  Here’s their h2h % against the rest of the top 12:
Nishikori
51.6%
Wawrinka
40.8%
Ferrer
38.2%
Tsonga
33.0%
Berdych
32.8%
Cilic
26.8%
Raonic
24.5%
Dimitrov
22.7%

Wawrinka has a slam title and Ferrer was in the top 5 for quite a while – is he the best player never to win a slam?  But I was surprised to see Kei at the top of this list.  He’s really blossomed in the last year, but I didn’t think that was enough time to top a career (so far) list.  That tells me he’s been at his winning ways for a while.

On the bottom end, Dimitrov and Raonic are distinctly not looking like world-beating talents about to seize the mantle from the Big 4.  Tsonga and Berdych are solidly mid-pack, which describes their careers neatly, and Cilic is, well, surprisingly good at times – does he even belong in this group?  Hard to leave him out with that slam title in his back pocket.

Looking at their records against just each other (the Next 8), the picture changes only slightly.
Nishikori
65.9%
Wawrinka
64.2%
Ferrer
54.3%
Tsonga
40.6%
Berdych
40.4%
Cilic
31.4%
Raonic
24.0%
Dimitrov
23.8%

The order is exactly the same, but Wawrinka moves much closer to Nishikori in percentage.  Kei’s been very good against his fellow 2nd stringers, but has suffered under the Big 4.  In fact, the best records against the Big 4 come from Ferrer, Tsonga, and Berdych, who have obviously learned a thing or two over the years.  Against Big 4:
Ferrer
29.4%
Tsonga
28.8%
Berdych
27.0%
Raonic
25.0%
Nishikori
23.8%
Wawrinka
22.4%
Cilic
22.2%
Dimitrov
21.7%

The one constant is that Dimitrov is bottom of the pack in every measure.  Perhaps he does not quite belong in this group.

Looking at the numbers put up by the Big 4 brings another layer of perspective.  They are very good.  They are a cut above the Next 8.  Against the rest of the Big 4:
Nadal
64.2%
Djokovic
51.4%
Federer
44.7%
Murray
35.3%

But it’s interesting to me how close Kei’s numbers are to Murray’s.  Kei actually edges out Murray vs the top 8, and that carries him to a slight advantage vs the top 12, too.  Versus Next 8:
Nadal
83.2%
Djokovic
81.7%
Federer
81.5%
Murray
65.0%
Nishikori
65.9%

And here are the numbers of the Big 4 against the whole top 12:
Nadal
73.7%
Djokovic
66.5%
Federer
62.9%
Murray
51.4%

The closeness of Kei to Murray vs the Next 8 and the Top 12 suggest that Kei is nearly in the same class as Murray, with the caveat that Kei trails vs the Big 4.  It makes me think it would be VERY surprising if Kei, with his talent and record, did not win a slam title at some point.  While Murray is clearly above the Next 8, he is also clearly behind the other 3 of the Big 4.  He, and possibly Kei, are occupying a middle ground between the two groups.

The other take away is that Nadal is clearly the top of this very elite field.  He’s untouchable in every category and is the only player with a winning record against every other player in this group of 12.  In fact he is the only slam winner in the open era to not have a losing record against any other slam winner.

Here’s the detail:
01-Apr-15
Djo
Fed
Mur
Nad
Nis
Rao
Fer
Ber
Waw
Cil
Dim
Tso
wins
Djokovic
18
17
19
3
5
13
18
17
11
5
13
139
Federer
20
12
10
3
9
16
13
15
5
3
11
117
Murray
8
11
5
3
2
9
5
8
10
5
10
76
Nadal
23
23
15
7
5
22
18
12
2
5
8
140
Nishikori
2
2
1
0
5
7
3
1
5
2
4
32
Raonic
0
1
3
1
2
0
3
0
1
1
1
13
Ferrer
5
0
6
6
4
4
8
7
3
4
3
50
Berdych
2
6
6
4
1
1
5
5
6
2
5
43
Wawrinka
3
2
6
1
3
4
6
11
8
2
3
49
Cilic
0
1
2
1
3
1
1
4
2
1
3
19
Dimitrov
1
0
2
0
0
2
1
3
1
0
0
10
Tsonga
6
5
2
3
1
2
1
2
3
1
4
30
losses
70
69
72
50
30
40
81
88
71
52
34
61

wins
win%
v big4 wins
big 4 losses
big 4 %
next 8 wins
next 8 losses
next 8 %
Djokovic
139
66.5%
54
51
51.4%
85
19
81.7%
Federer
117
62.9%
42
52
44.7%
75
17
81.5%
Murray
76
51.4%
24
44
35.3%
52
28
65.0%
Nadal
140
73.7%
61
34
64.2%
79
16
83.2%
Nishikori
32
51.6%
5
16
23.8%
27
14
65.9%
Raonic
13
24.5%
7
21
25.0%
6
19
24.0%
Ferrer
50
38.2%
25
60
29.4%
25
21
54.3%
Berdych
43
32.8%
20
54
27.0%
23
34
40.4%
Wawrinka
49
40.8%
15
52
22.4%
34
19
64.2%
Cilic
19
26.8%
8
28
22.2%
11
24
31.4%
Dimitrov
10
22.7%
5
18
21.7%
5
16
23.8%
Tsonga
30
33.0%
17
42
28.8%
13
19
40.6%


Labels

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Men’s Tennis 2024 Yearend and 2025 Predictions

2 January 2025   The Big Three is dead!  Long Live the Big Three!  For the first time in 22 years, none of Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic are in the yearend top three.  Instead we have a new set – Sinner, Alcaraz, and Zverev.  Now it would certainly be debatable if Zverev has the significance of the other two. Afterall, he still has not won a slam and he’s half a generation older than his younger counterparts.  At age 27 he should be mid-arc in career accomplishments – but in some metrics he’s just starting out.  However, his superlative play over the year landed him at #2 and who are we to argue with the algorithm? One of the biggest clouds hanging over the coming year is the fate of Jannik Sinner.  By all accounts he is the top dog, and primed to have another banner year, but whether or not he will get to play depends on what happens with WADA (the World Anti-Doping Agency).  Anyone can see he’s essentially innocent – I mean, a massage...
Post a Comment
Read more

Wimbledon Women 2024

The divas have gathered, the grass is fresh, the blades are out, the Venus Rosewater Dish beckons. Is there a favourite?  There are only three former champions in the draw, and while they may be among the top picks it’s dangerous to count on any of them: Kerber (past her prime), Rybakina (constantly sick), and Vondrousova (chronically unreliable).  So who will it be lifting the plate in two weeks’ time?   First Quarter Iga Swiatek (1) is the top seed and has pretty much nailed down this slot across the board for the last two and a half years.   But grass is her least-accomplished surface.   She pulled out of her warm-up tournament citing emotional recuperation after her fifth slam crown and third consecutive at Roland Garros.   But there is cause for hope among the Swiatek-azzi. She made the quarters last year in a game effort against a surging Svitolina.   Her strokes should hold up well on grass, although I think she loses some of the movement...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Case for Rod Laver as GOAT - 25 Dec 2010

The Case for Rod Laver Two grand slams.   When one considers the near impossibility of winning a calendar year grand slam in this day and age, the thought of one player winning two boggles the mind.   It’s difficult enough to win the career slam – only 7 men have ever done it and only 4 in the Open era.   Winning a non-calendar slam is even more difficult and many great players have won three in a row and fallen just short:   like Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Pete Sampras. So Rod Laver should be an open and shut case for the greatest of all time.   But it’s not that simple.   His first grand slam is really negligible and doesn’t count.   It was an amateur slam won in an era when the best players were professionals.   Especially in the 1960’s the pros were gaining more and more credibility.   The sheer number of pros was increasing as more and more tournaments began to be established for pro players.   Laver was by no means considered...
3 comments
Read more