US Open 2015 Preview – Men

US Open 2015 Preview – Men

Novak Djokovic is the runaway #1 this year.   But Andy Murray just beat him in the Montreal final and Roger Federer triumphed over Novak in Cincinnati.  So who is the favourite for the US Open?  And what about last year’s finalists Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori?  Or Djokovic’s conqueror in Paris, Stan Wawrinka?  And what of Rafael Nadal?

Djokovic has won two of three slams and four Masters 1000 titles this year.  He has 50% more ranking points in the yearly Race than #2 Andy Murray.  Hard courts are traditionally his favourite surface.  So why isn’t he the obvious favourite for the US Open? 

Well, for starters he’s just lost twice on North American hard courts, to Murray and Federer.  And then there is his dismal record in US Open finals:  1 W – 4 L.  Considering his sterling Australian Open resume contains 5 titles, his failure at the USO is especially puzzling.  Steve Tignor at TENNIS magazine thinks it may be the wind that swirls around Ashe Stadium that unsettles Djokovic, or maybe that while Novak plays repetitively great tennis all year, perhaps he does not leave himself enough room to peak.  

He expends a lot of energy at consistently maintaining a high standard.  Does he have enough left to raise his game in the big moments?  This may have been the problem in the Roland Garros final when he lost to Wawrinka.  But Novak himself blamed lack of aggressive play, and it certainly appeared that Stan was the more aggressive player in their French final.

Another factor is the surface.  Cincinnati is apparently faster than many other hard court surfaces and this may favour the quick reflexes of Federer.  Roger just picked up his 7^th Cincy crown and Novak has zero.  Word on the tour is that USO courts are very comparable to Cincinnati – maybe a shade slower.  Combine that with the wind issue and it might go a long way to explaining Djokovic’s struggles.

All this is to say that Novak could probably still be regarded as the favourite, but the specific conditions of the US Open level the playing field for the other top players.  Federer seemed very close last year when he made the semis in Queens with only Cilic and Nishikori standing in his way.  But Cilic was in once-in-a-lifetime form and Federer was vanquished.  If Federer were to meet Novak in the final, Roger’s recent victory in Cincinnati would make it very tough to declare Djokovic the favourite.  But the USO courts may favour Federer a whisker less than the Cincy ones.  And, given Novak’s last two victories over Federer in slam finals, it seems too close to call.  The bookies are more decisive however, giving Djokovic a significantly better chance than Murray, with Murray just slightly ahead of Federer.

And what about Andy Murray?  After 8 consecutive losses to Novak, Murray finally turned it around against the man 7 days younger than himself and notched a win in the Montreal final.  Murray is having his most consistent year on tour and seems to be close to the form that led him to an Olympic gold, a US Open title, and a Wimbledon crown in the space of 12 months.  He’s on track for his first ever yearend #2 finish possibly... he leads Federer in the Race by over 1600 points. 

Although the win over Novak should boost Murray’s confidence, that’s only one out of the last 9, and Andy did go down to Federer last week in Cincy.  I would favour Novak slightly over Murray.  Between Federer and Murray it may depend on what round they play.  In a final, I think Federer has the mental edge, but in a semi, it might go to Murray.

Next up, 700 points behind Federer in the year’s Race, is compatriot Stan Wawrinka.  Stan looked awesome in over-powering Djokovic in the French final.  Starting with the 2013 US Open, Wawrinka seems to have reached a new level.  He made SF that year.  But while he certainly has the firepower to take the title, he has not shown the consistency of the biggest guns, so they should be favoured slightly.

Last year’s winner, Marin Cilic, has done little since then to suggest he will repeat.  Last year he made QF at Wimbledon, then was 6-3 (matches W-L) in the USO tune-ups.  This year he made QF at Wimbledon and is 4-3 since... not much different.  But last year he had won two titles for the year by this time, and this year, zero.  Regardless, he’s done it before, he can do it again.  It just doesn’t appear likely.

His victim in last year’s final however, Kei Nishikori, has been having his best year.  Seeded #4 he avoids the Big 3 until at least the semis.  He dismantled Nadal convincingly in Montreal, but got only 3 games in losing to Murray in the next round, and has not beaten a top 5 player all year.  A deep run would not be surprising, but I do not expect to see him hold the trophy this year.

Top Quarter

Novak Djokovic (seeded 1) appears to have a reasonably straight forward path to the QF.  David Goffin (14) in Round 4 (4R) will be stretched to provide even the mild scare he gave Djokovic in Cincinnati.  Looming potentially for Novak in the quarter-final are the very scary names of Milos Raonic (10) or Rafael Nadal (8).  But on second look... neither has been particularly successful this summer.  Since foot surgery in May, Raonic notched four wins on grass and none on North American hard courts.  Of course he can still be dangerous, but he is hardly in form.

Nadal has looked slightly better in posting three hard courts victories between Cincinnati and Montreal, but ‘for him’ this would have to be considered off form.  Nadal has made the final here the last three times he played, winning in 2010 and 2013, but THAT Nadal seems a far-off dream compared to the floundering uncertain impersonator of 2015.

Rafa could face a very stiff test in 1R against 18 year-old Borna Coric (rank 35) who beat him last year in Basel.  Should he survive that he might face Fabio Fognini (32) in 3R, who has two wins over Nadal this year, or maybe Steve Johnson, who has proven adept on hard this summer.  Also nearby is Feliciano Lopez (18) who is on a two-match win streak against Nadal, and former #7 Mardy Fish, who is returning from a two year break from the game.  Fish is a bit of a wildcard, but put in a solid performance in Cincinnati last week.

In his current state, Nadal could fall apart at any time during seemingly the most innocuous match, but at the end of the day, he should beat Coric and Fognini and Lopez or Raonic, and take his rightful position in the quarters across from Novak Djokovic.  And if it is has not happened by then, I will expect Rafa’s run to end there.

Djokovic d. Nadal

Second Quarter

Despite not playing since June, David Ferrer is seeded at #7.  He has shown great resilience in the past, but I suspect rust will get the better of him on this outing.  Defending champion, Marin Cilic (9) is a potential 4R opponent, if he can get through Grigor Dimitrov (17) – who has lost ground since last year – in 3R.  Cilic’s unexpected run last year makes this year’s campaign intriguing and if there is something particularly favourable to his game about the courts at Flushing Meadows, he could be expected to go deep again.  QF seems perfectly plausible for Marin, and there he will likely face the man he vanquished in last year’s final, Kei Nishikori (4). 

Although a talented lot, none of the other seeds near Nishikori have looked near full potency of late:  Tommy Robredo (26), Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (19), or Gael Monfils (16).  That could bring up a rematch of last year’s final between Marin and Kei, and THAT could be fascinating.  Cilic has done little to show he’s in good form this year, but it was not much different last year.  Meanwhile, Kei has risen to #4 in the world and I expect his consistent and powerful ground-stroking will be too much for a Cilic not in full possession of the weapons he displayed last year.

Nishikori d. Cilic

Third Quarter

In the third quarter, journeymen seeds Gilles Simon (11), Kevin Anderson (15), Dominic Thiem (20), Viktor Troicki (22), Jack Sock (28), and Thomaz Bellucci (30) are all capable of fine play.  But I expect they will all wilt before the superior games of Stan Wawrinka (5) and Andy Murray (3).

Murray could have his hands full with young Australian hothead Nick Kyrgios (rank 37, age 20), who has shown considerable talent in making QF twice at the slams.  If Kyrgios should happen to beat Murray and face Wawrinka in the quarters, expect the courtside microphones to be turned up on full.  But that win is unlikely. 

Murray and Wawrinka have played close and the head to head is at 8-6 for Murray.  But their last meeting was in the USO quarters two years ago, a win by Wawrinka, and arguably the launching point of his recent success.  I’m sure neither has forgotten.  I will expect Murray to put up an impenetrable wall.

Murray d. Wawrinka

Bottom Quarter

The fourth quarter is bracketed by Roger Federer (2) and the eternal Tomas Berdych (6) – is he still 20-something and ranked 6-7 in the world??  Berdych’s section could bring up a spectacle-worthy 3R between mercurial talents Bernard Tomic (24) and Richard Gasquet (12).  But first Gasquet will need to overcome Tomic’s fellow Aussie young gun, Thanassi Kokkinakis in 1R.

Based on recent form, Gasquet should be able to push through to a 4R meeting with Berdych.  The Berdych-Gasquet head to head is locked at 6-6.  Berdych has won both meetings this year, but again, Gasquet has looked sharper to me this summer so I expect he will have a slight edge.

Over in Federer’s section, 6’10” John Isner (13) could face 6’11” Ivo Karlovic in a 3R rock-hurling contest, but, such is Roger’s form this summer, I will be surprised if Federer does not vanquish all in this quarter including Berdych/Gasquet in the quarters.

Federer d. Gasquet

Semis

Picking the top four seeds for the semis hardly seems daring, but such has become the predictability of men’s tennis this decade, and besides, they’ve earned it.  One year ago Nishikori shocked Djokovic at exactly this stage.  Djokovic will be ready this time and despite a close head to head, 3-2 Djokovic, I think the match will go easily to Djokovic.

Djokovic d. Nishikori

Predicting a semi between Federer and Murray on hard is really like throwing a dart at a dartboard (for someone of my dart skills!)  Their head to head stands at 14-11 for Federer with Roger taking the last 5 matches.  Murray has been the more consistent player this year, and with his victory over Novak in Montreal, I think he showed that he is in near title-worthy form.  It should be a highly competitive match and if the surface is even a whisker slower than Cincy’s I think it will favour Murray... but only just.

Murray d. Federer

Final

Although Djokovic has struggled in US Open finals, winning only one of five he’s played, I think that he as a better mentality for victory at the present time than do either Murray or Federer.  It really is ridiculously close among these three, and I find I can talk myself into a victory for any of them if I take the right tack and let myself run with it.

Djokovic d. Murray

Odds

The bookies at bet365.com offered the following decimal odds on Wed, 25 Aug.

1	Djokovic	2.1
2	Murray	4.33
3	Federer	5.5
4	Wawrinka	13
5	Nishikori	17
5	Nadal	17
7	Cilic	26
8	Berdych	34
8	Dimitrov	34
10	Raonic	41
11	Tsonga	51
12	Kyrgios	67
13	Monfils	101
13	Isner	101
13	Tomic	101
13	Goffin	101
13	Gulbis	101
13	Dolgopolov	101
19	Ferrer	126
20	Janowicz	151
20	Gasquet	151
20	Anderson	151
20	Thiem	151
24	Simon	201