US Open 2015 Preview – Women

US Open 2015 Preview – Women

There are a lot of records on the line here and they all have to do with Serena.  Can anyone stop her?

Serena Williams has won the last 4 slam events – the Serena Slam.  She needs one more to win the calendar Grand Slam – a feat accomplished 3 times by women:  1953 Maureen Connolly, 1970 Margaret Court, 1988 Steffi Graf.  A US Open victory would give Serena four consecutive US Open titles, matching Chris Evert’s open era record (1975-1978), as well as the all-time record:  Molla Mallory (1915-1918), Helen Jacobs (1932-1935).  It would be Serena’s 7^th USO crown, one more than Evert’s open era record of 6, but one behind the all-time tally of Mallory.  It would also be Serena’s 22^nd slam title, matching the open era record of Steffi Graf (1987-1999), but still two behind the all-time count of Margaret Court (1960-1973).

Serena has lost only twice all year:  in Madrid to Petra Kvitova and in Canada to Belinda Bencic.  Kvitova is a two-time Wimbledon champion and the #5 seed.  But she has never done well at the US Open.  The 25 year-old is still the only person male or female born in the 1990’s to win a slam title, but has only managed as far as fourth round (4R) twice in eight attempts at the USO site at Flushing Meadows.  I do not see things changing much this year.

But who is Belinda Bencic?  All but the tennis cognoscenti will be scratching their heads.  Here’s the scoop:  she’s 18, the #12 seed, a quarter-finalist here last year, and one of the most exciting prospects to come along in awhile.  She shot to prominence with the title in Toronto two weeks ago, beating 6 former slam finalists, including Serena Williams and four of the world’s top 6, in taking the title.

She could turn out to be another Sloane Stephens/Eugenie Bouchard/Madison Keys, but the quality of her results and the very young age at which she is showing promise argue for something more enduring than we have yet seen from that trio.  Time will tell.  She won’t necessarily be one of the top favourites for the US Open title, but she will be keenly watched by many and the title is not unthinkable for someone of such precocious talent.

Other possible challengers to Serena include two-time USO runner-up and former world #1 Victoria Azarenka, the redoubtable Maria Sharapova, and Simona Halep, now #2 and the third-last woman to claim a victory over Serena.  And then there’s the rather surprising composition of the current top 10 to consider:  #6 Lucie Safarova, #8 Karolina Pliskova, #9 Garbine Muguruza, and #10 Carla Suarez Navarro – all of whom are newcomers to that echelon this year.  Not to mention Ekaterina Makarova who made her top 10 debut this year, Bencic, #14 Timea Bacsinszky, and #17 Elina Svitolina.  All have been making waves.

Top Quarter

This might be the toughest quarter of the draw.  Up and comer Bencic (seeded 12) could take on Venus Williams (23) in Round 3 (3R).  Former Wimbledon finalist Agnieszka Radwanska (15) could face this year’s Australian Open semi-finalist Madison Keys (19) in 3R.  And Serena Williams (1) could run into Sloane Stephens (29), who beat Serena in AO 2013.  If she survives, Serena could then face Keys/ARadwanska.  Eighth seed, Karolina Pliskova, could face Bencic/VWilliams in R4.  KaPliskova does not seem to thrive against top ranked players but she is good at beating those ranked below her.

The biggest questions for me here are what Bencic will bring to the table and how nervous Serena will be in trying for the Grand Slam.  Stephens could well be up-ended in 1R by powerful Coco Vandeweghe.  Serena is likely to face some stern early tests and three-setters.  Will she be able to block out the big picture and focus on the moment, the point, the stroke in order to let her best tennis shine through? 

With points to defend and a recent victory over Serena in her back-pocket, Bencic may understandably succumb to nerves in an early round.  But if she truly is the stuff champions are made of, she has a reasonable chance to make it through to the quarters to face Serena, and what happens there will be anyone’s guess.  My money is on vengeance for Serena.

SWilliams d. Bencic

Second Quarter

2006 USO Champion Maria Sharapova (3) could meet 2004 USO champion Svetlana Kuznetsova (30) in Round 3.  Kuznetsova is a shell of her former self and faces dangerous 22-year old Kristina Mladenovic (ranked 39) in 1R.  An upset is possible. 

Meanwhile, Sharapova has played a rather light schedule of late, withdrawing from Cincinnati citing an upper right leg injury.  Her last two tournaments are Wimbledon and Roland Garros.  She’s done reasonably well on her slam-only schedule making semis at Wimbledon, but lack of match play could well be a factor in the early rounds at USO.  She opens against climbing Daria Gavrilova (rank 37) who has wins this summer over Sara Errani (16) and Lucie Safarova (6).  Again, an upset is possible.  Most likely 4R opponents for Sharapova are Elina Svitolina (17) or the always slam-dangerous Ekaterina Makarova (13) who made semis here last year.  Svitolina may bear watching:  she made semis in Stanford and Cincinnati this summer.

The bottom section of this quarter features Ana Ivanovic (7) in a perilous opener against last year’s AO finalist Dominika Cibulkova.  Should she survive, she probably has little to fear from Eugenie Bouchard (25) as a possible third rounder.  Bouchard is in a slump so deep, it makes Sloane Stephens look like a mental giant.  Instead Zarina Diyas (rank 34) might cause some waves if she faces Ivanovic. 

Carla Suarez Navarro has played very well this year to get to #10 in the rankings, but has hit a flat spot and could well succumb to Jelena Jankovic (21).  Also here is USO-lover Roberta Vinci.  If it comes down to a 4R battle of the Serbs, I give the edge to Ivanovic over Jankovic – Ana leads the head to head 9:3.

I have grave doubts about Sharapova’s readiness for this tournament, but she has a reasonable chance to play her way into shape, and is far and away the most proven talent in the quarter.  If she falters, Svitolina may have a chance.

Sharapova d. Ivanovic

Third Quarter

After starting the year with an avowal to raise her game and do better off grass, Petra Kvitova (5) has done anything but.  Since beating Serena at Madrid in May, she has beaten only one player in the top 20, and had lost 3 matches in a row.  This week her results are a little better having notched two wins to get to a showdown with Caroline Wozniacki in New Haven.  But given her woeful history at USO, I will be looking for an early exit from one of my favourite players.  She still has the big game, somewhere, surfacing at unpredictable times, but the augurs for current success are not good.  However her draw is a cakewalk and the biggest name nearby is Garbine Muguruza (9) as a potential 4R opponent.

Muguruza has not recovered from her shocking run to the Wimbledon final, and like Kvitova has posted three consecutive losses.  This is a weak little section and the likes of Andrea Petkovic (18) or her first round opponent, Caroline Garcia (rank 36), could well be the beneficiaries.

Opposite them is Caroline Wozniacki who surprises me with the #4 seeding.  Wozniacki had lost her last four matches before, like Kvitova, putting up two wins this week.  She has done little this year to warrant a high ranking, save winning the crown in Kuala Lumpur.  Her ranking is due to good results last fall and a run to last year’s USO final.  That said, she has often thriven at the US Open, with two finalist and two SF finishes.

Also here is 2011 champion, Samantha Stosur (22), and Flavia Pennetta(26) age 33, who has made QF or better at five of the last six USOs she’s played.  Given the weakness of the quarter, she could well do it again.

Wozniacki d. Petkovic

Bottom Quarter

Two-time former finalist, Victoria Azarenka, is the bookies second pick (see below), after Serena. She’s seeded #20 and has faced difficult draws all year, losing mostly to high quality opponents.  She’s drawn to meet Angelique Kerber (11) in 3R.  Kerber, at 6^th in the yearend Race (or “Road” as the WTA calls it), has already won 4 titles this year, and will be very tough for anyone to handle.  But she trails Azarenka
0-4 in their head to head.

Facing her in 4R could be Lucie Safarova (6) whose talent has finally come good this year with a runner-up showing at Roland Garros.  Safarova has handled the pressure reasonably well, posting 5-4 since her dream run.  She could face up and coming Irina-Camelia Begu (28) in 3R.

The bottom portion of the quarter is headlined by Simona Halep (2) who has just reclaimed the #2 ranking from Sharapova on the back of runner-up showings in Toronto and Cincinnati.  After racking up 15 straight wins in spring that included the Dubai and Indian Wells titles, Halep eased through the clay and grass seasons before reappearing in fine form for North American hard courts.  She’s never been past 4R at USO, but I have a feeling that is about to change.

Standing in her way could be the winner of a 3R clash between grass specialist Sabine Lisicki (24) and Timea Bacsinszky (14).  Bacsinszky backed up her out-of-nowhere run to the French semis with a QF at Wimbledon.  She also notched a 15 win streak on hardcourts in Feb-Mar.  If she meets Halep it could be a fierce 4R battle, to which I give Halep a slight edge.

There are a lot of believable outcomes for a quarter that features Safarova, Azarenka, Kerber, Bacsinszky, Lisicki, and Halep, all of who are former slam semi-finalists or better.  To my mind the most likely outcome, despite a 0-2 head to head, is

Halep d. Azarenka

Semis

With 17 straight victories over her ‘rival’, it would be a stretch not to select

SWilliams d. Sharapova

Selecting Wozniacki over Petkovic for the third SF slot, is not to say that either is playing particularly well.  Rather, they look the most steady of an unsteady lot.  Really, I think the fourth quarter is much tougher and whoever comes out of that cauldron, Halep or Azarenka or Bacsinszky, say, is likely to make the final.

Halep d. Wozniacki

Final

There is a significant chance that Serena will fall to an attack of nerves as she faces the enormity of completing a calendar Grand Slam.  But if she can stay focused on the moment, she is by far the most accomplished and talented player in the field.  I am guessing she will make history, yet again.

SWilliams d. Halep

Odds

The bookies at bet365.com offered the following decimal odds on Wed, 25 Aug.

1	SWilliams	1.9
2	Azarenka	8
3	Sharapova	10
4	Halep	13
5	Kvitova	21
5	Bencic	21
7	Wozniacki	26
7	Muguruza	26
7	Keys	26
10	ARadwanska	34
11	Safarova	41
11	Kerber	41
13	Stephens	51
13	Ivanovic	51
15	VWilliams	67
15	Bouchard	67
15	KaPliskova	67
18	Makarova	81
18	Vandeweghe	81
18	Bacsinszky	81
21	Lisicki	101
21	Petkovic	101
21	Pennetta	101
24	Stosur	126
24	Jankovic	126
24	Garcia	126
24	Watson	126