2015 WTA
Yearend and Predictions for 2016
The grand slam... the ultimate achievement in tennis... was
so close this year. Serena Williams was
within two wins of the monumental feat, before Roberta Vinci derailed her in
the US Open semis. Serena did not play
after that loss, but she had still amassed a 53-3 match win record for the year: her losses coming to Petra Kvitova, Belinda Bencic,
and Vinci.
Surprisingly, this amounted to only two titles outside of
the three slams she won. But she also
retired from three tournaments. Her
total of 5 titles for the year seems low for such a dominant #1. But her total of 21 slam singles titles is
third on the all time list.
Slam Singles Titles
24 – Margaret Court
22 – Steffi Graf
21 – Serena Williams
20 – Helen Wills*
18 – Chris Evert
18 – Martina Navratilova
*includes 1924 Olympics which replaced Fre Chps that year
22 – Steffi Graf
21 – Serena Williams
20 – Helen Wills*
18 – Chris Evert
18 – Martina Navratilova
*includes 1924 Olympics which replaced Fre Chps that year
The sense of deflation after Serena’s US Open loss was huge. It’s actually had me questioning if she will
play again. Where to go after this? The Grand Slam would have been the crowning
achievement of her career. Can she
muster the effort to try again in 2016?
Will just winning slams still have any thrill for her after coming so
close to something so much bigger? Maybe the motivation to catch Graf and Court
on the all time list (both calendar slam winners) will still push her. She says she is still hungry.
After Serena, the rest of the field seems a light year
behind. But two old Italians stole the
lime light at the US Open. Roberta Vinci
stunned the world by defeating Serena in the semis after Serena led by a break
in the third set. At age 32, she’s no
spring chicken in tennis terms. But even
older is her countrywoman, Flavia Pennetta, 33, who beat Vinci in the USO final
to claim the first and only slam of her career.
Instead of cashing in on her newfound fame, fans, and
endorsement opportunities, Pennetta promptly announced she was retiring at the
end of the year. This seems to be becoming
a trend on the WTA tour with Bartoli, Li, and Pennetta all retiring in the year
of a slam victory. I wish this
accomplished trio were still around to challenge for more titles. The grand slam letdown was quickly turned by
the engaging personalities of the Italians, especially Vinci, who rapidly
converted her villainous slam-slayer role into public darling, bubbling with an
ingenue’s joy.
Another feel good story was the re-emergence of Venus
Williams. After last appearing in the
top 10 in April 2011, and subsequently battling through Sjogren’s, Venus
claimed 3 titles this year, including the weird second-tier-yearend
championships in Zhuhai, and finishes the year at #7. If she had managed to get through Serena at
either Wimbledon or the US Open, she might have claimed those titles too. She certainly should not be counted out for
next year. She has by far the most wins
over Serena of any active or inactive player.
Her 11 wins over Serena are well ahead of Capriati who had 7, or Hingis
and Henin with 6 each.
Simona Halep seems to have improved with a yearend finish of
#2, one better than last year. But she
actually had slightly more WTA points last year than this. The difference is that it was kind of a weak
year points-wise for most of the top players.
Notably so was Maria Sharapova who effectively only played half a
year. This opened the door for a par
showing from Halep to look good.
Halep seemed to start the year on a rip, winning 3 of her
first 4 tournaments, but then petered out, posting only second round at Roland
Garros and first round at Wimbledon. She
reached the semis at the US Open, but was so-so in the Yearend Championship,
going out in straights to Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska. Although she’s determined to improve,
barring the removal of her main competition it is hard to imagine her doing any
better next year at age 25 in her 5’6” frame.
It still seems that Sharapova is ‘the real’ #2. She held the spot for much of the year, and
it was only lack of play that seemed to keep her from it in the yearend
reckoning. She was unable to solve the
Serena riddle in the final of the Australian or the semis at Wimbledon, but
she’s formidable for everyone else, and claimed the Rome and Brisbane titles
this year. 2016 is an even-numbered
year, and since she’s won all 5 of her slam titles in even years, why not
predict she will win another next year – just so long as she doesn’t have to
beat Serena to do it.
Garbine Muguruza made (another) splash this year by making
the final at Wimbledon and finishing the year at #3... a nice follow-up to
beating Serena in the 2014 French. But
as excited as I am by the new blood at the top, I’m left with the nagging
feeling that she’s a weak #3. She really
didn’t do much else, taking only one title for the year, albeit the big,
expensive one in Beijing. So I checked
to see where her 5200 WTA points would place her in years past.
What 5200 WTA points
gets you:
#3 in 2015
#5 in 2014
#6 in 2013
#6 in 2012
#9 in 2011
#5 in 2014
#6 in 2013
#6 in 2012
#9 in 2011
So her ranking is inflated compared to most years and I’m a
little unsure what to expect from Muguruza next year. Her breakthrough into the top 10 at age 22 is
kind of old for a WTA player. She might
claim a slam title at some point in her career, but multi-slam, multi-#1 chops
do not look likely. That said, she has a
big hard-hitting game that could reap major benefits if she can learn to
control it. If the landscape does not
change much and Serena comes back to mortal-hood, I can see her taking a slam
title next year, but I think it more likely that the coming vacuum at the top
is going to be filled with a flight of younger players.
The perennial top-tenners had their struggles this year –
and by that I mean Aggie Radwanska, Kvitova, Kerber, Wozniacki, Azarenka
(remember her?), Ivanovic, Jankovic, and even Stosur and Kuznetsova. Radwanska came out tops in this group at #5
yearend, proudly holding the Yearend Championship trophy – arguably the most
important after the slams – and the biggest win of her career.
Kvitova took 3 titles and gave Serena one of only 3
losses. But then she became her usual
inconsistent self, looking very middling at the slams, before making the YEC
final and taking the Czechs to their fourth Fed Cup title in five years, and a
yearend finish of #6.
Last year’s #5, Wozniacki, drops to #17 after six
consecutive yearend top-10 finishes. Angelique
Kerber also dropped clean out of the top 10 after an early year slump, before
getting her act together and claiming 4 titles (second most for the year) and a
yearend rank of #10.
2015 Titles
5 – Serena Williams
4 – Angelique Kerber
3 – Simona Halep
3 – Agnieszka Radwanska
3 – Petra Kvitova
3 – Venus Williams
2 – Sharapova, Bacsinszky, Bencic, Schmiedlova, Pereira, Stosur, Jankovic
1 – 24 players
4 – Angelique Kerber
3 – Simona Halep
3 – Agnieszka Radwanska
3 – Petra Kvitova
3 – Venus Williams
2 – Sharapova, Bacsinszky, Bencic, Schmiedlova, Pereira, Stosur, Jankovic
1 – 24 players
There was a surprising influx of players into the top 10
this year. Elena Makarova led the charge
in January and stayed for half a year.
Muguruza at #3 is the most highly ranked of the newcomers, but also new
this year were Lucie Safarova, Karolina Pliskova, Carla Suarez Navarro, and
Timea Bacsinszky, not to mention the return of Pennetta. These 6 players represent the greatest uptake
of new players into the top 10 since the WTA computer era began, except for
1984 and 1989 when there were 7 each year.
There were also some near misses, from Vinci, Belinda Bencic, Elina
Svitolina, and Madison Keys.
Keys made news by taking out Kvitova and Venus before losing
to Serena in the Aus Open semis – her best showing at a slam. But 18-year old Belinda Bencic did one better,
taking out four top 10 players and Eugenie Bouchard to take the title in
Toronto. Most impressive were her
defeats of Serena in the semis and Halep in the final. She might be the future of tennis. She certainly looks promising. A goal for next year should be to make the
top 10 and at least the quarters at a slam.
Speaking of Canada’s darling, Eugenie Bouchard... things
have started to look rather dire. The
Aus Open was a decent start with a QF showing.
But then things unravelled. After
10 first round losses, at the US Open she finally started to show hints of last
year’s form. But after battling into the
fourth round, things got bizarre when she slipped in the locker room and
sustained a concussion. Hopefully she
returns next year, healthy and with the determination to improve her ranking
from 48 and closer to the yearend #7 she attained the previous year.
Young Climbers
Belinda Bencic – age 18, height 5’9”, rank: 14, rank last
year: 33, my projection for 2016: top 10
Daria Kasatkina – age 18, height 5’7”, rank: 72, rank last
year: 370, my projection for 2016: top 50
Jelena Ostapenko – age 18, height 5’10”, rank: 81, rank last
year: 308, my projection for 2016: top 50
Ana Konjuh – age 17, height 5’9”, rank: 83, rank last year:
90, my projection for 2016: top 50
Anett Kontaveit – age 19, height 5’9”, rank: 91, rank last
year: 166, my projection for 2016: top 75
Anhelina Kalinina – age 18, height ”, rank: 150, rank last
year: 268, my projection for 2016: top 100
Naomi Osaka – age 18, height 5’11”, rank: 157, rank last
year: 250, my projection for 2016: top 150
Katerina Stewart – age 18, height ”, rank: 170, rank last
year: 378, my projection for 2016: top 150
Catherine Bellis – age 16, height 5’6”, rank: 242, rank last
year: 257, my projection for 2016: top 150
Olga Fridman – age 17, height ”, rank: 279, rank last year:
671, my projection for 2016: top 150
Shilin Xu – age 17, height ”, rank: 293, rank last year:
405, my projection for 2016: top 200
Tamara Zidansek – age 17, height ”, rank: 294, rank last
year: 741, my projection for 2016: top 200
Marketa Vondrousova – age 16, height ”, rank: 391, rank last
year: nr, my projection for 2016: top 200
Claire Liu – age 15, height ”, rank: 560, rank last year:
nr, my projection for 2016: top 250
The Coming Year
The safe prediction is that Serena Williams will dominate
again. It is not impossible that she
could actually win the grand slam in 2016.
If she should happen to win the Australian, she will probably set her
sights on the slam. But if she goes on
then to lose at a slam, I wonder if it will finish her career. She says she is hungry, so that is a positive
sign – even if a letdown would be very understandable in 2016. Serena could have a more human year like 2014
when she only won one slam title. That
might keep her hungry.
Standing in Serena’s way could be big sister, Venus. The boost of a #7 yearend finish will likely
propel Venus to some better results, even if it’s only because her seeding will
help. Seeing Venus in the latter stages
of a slam would not surprise, and the Wimbledon title is thinkable for her. But consistently beating the other top women
seems unlikely based on her last few years of results. She did however finish third for the year in
match-winning percentage, which shows how high the quality of her game remains.
2015 Match Winning
Percentage
1 SWilliams 53-3 94.6%
2 Sharapova 39-9 81.3%
3 VWilliams 41-13 75.9%
4 Bacsinszky 41-14 74.5%
5 Halep 49-17 74.2%
6 Kerber 53-22 70.7%
7 Azarenka 31-13 70.5%
8 Kvitova 38-17 69.1%
9 Jankovic 44-20 68.8%
10 Muguruza 41-19 68.3%
2 Sharapova 39-9 81.3%
3 VWilliams 41-13 75.9%
4 Bacsinszky 41-14 74.5%
5 Halep 49-17 74.2%
6 Kerber 53-22 70.7%
7 Azarenka 31-13 70.5%
8 Kvitova 38-17 69.1%
9 Jankovic 44-20 68.8%
10 Muguruza 41-19 68.3%
Bacsinszky is a real surprise on this list at #4, since on
the WTA computer she holds the #12 spot.
Her best results were not in small tournaments, making SF at the French,
QF at Wimbledon and Indian Wells, F at Beijing, along with two smaller Titles
in spring. A little more consistency and
she could become a real threat for the top.
Another player who should improve on last year is Victoria
Azarenka. With two slam titles and a
yearend #1 finish (2012) she is the most accomplished player on tour after the
Williamses and Sharapova. There’s lots
of room for improvement from a yearend rank of #22, although it is not clear to
me why she is floundering now. She made
QF at both the US Open and Wimbledon in 2015, so perhaps she is close to
re-inserting herself into the top 10.
Another question concerns what up and comers Muguruza and
Bencic will do in 2016. Muguruza’s
hard-hitting game is maturing nicely and Bencic seems to have the right
combination of talent and determination to go far one day. Will this be their year?
2015 Rankings
For possibly the first time ever, this year I follow the WTA
rankings exactly in my own top 10. There
were 6 new additions to the top 10 during the year, but only two of those held
onto their spots at yearend, Muguruza and Safarova. Additionally, Venus and Pennetta re-entered
after several years away.
2016 Top Ten Predictions
Seeing Serena on top again for 2016 does not require too
much stretching. A letdown after such a
spectacular 2015 is possible, but she is still playing better than anyone
else. Sharapova seems able to lord it
over everyone but Serena so she gets #2.
Simona Halep continues to play well, but I wonder if she has the power
and will to go any higher – there were a few disconcerting let downs in
2015. She could well lose ground to more
powerful players like Kvitova and Muguruza, but I’ll count on her consistency
to keep her near #3.
Predicting Kvitova is a lottery, but she has delivered a
number of big titles in the last 5 years, so she might do it again. I think Muguruza is capable of winning a slam
title in 2016, but I’m not sure she will have the consistency to be at the very
top, so I hedge my bets with #5 for her.
I think Venus could have a better year than last year and might show up
in a slam final again. Maybe I’m
optimistic but I think #6 is about right for her.
Last year I predicted Azarenka would rejoin the top 10 and
she proved me wrong, so perhaps I am foolish to slot her in at #7 for next
year. I think her game is there, but she
may need a little belief. After two
years at #10, putting Kerber in again is a testament to her consistency and
tenaciousness.
So that leaves two spots.
Leaving off ARadwanska after her biggest career title and 7 years in the
top 10 may well be foolish, but her defensive creative game has its
limits. It would certainly be possible
to argue that Safarova’s breakout run to the Roland Garros final merits
consideration, even if she faltered a little toward the end. Then there is Wozniacki: passing over the former #1 takes some
courage. Likewise Ivanovic, who has
shown she can post big results out of nowhere.
Karolina Pliskova had a very good year in 2015 and could get
better. So too could Svitolina. And will Bouchard come back to her best form? Or Madison Keys break out? Maybe Carla Suarez Navarro will re-find her
game, or Vinci will make one last kick at the can in her farewell year? Picking the last spots for next year’s top 10
was very difficult, but in the end, I decided to go with a pair of Swiss “B’s”:
Belinda Bencic and Timea Bacsinszky. At only 18 I think Bencic still has room for
significant improvement, her wins over Serena and Halep are good augurs, and
she has a big enough game to make a statement at the big events. And Bacsinszky showed with her wins at big
venues and high overall win percentage that she has room to improve her week-in
week-out game and move closer to the top.
2016 Slam Predictions
Serena should be the favourite at the Australian Open and
every tournament she plays. But a hiccup
is certainly possible and she’s only won the tournament once in the last 5
years. Maria Sharapova, finalist last
year and in 2012 and 2007, and champion in 2008 should be favoured next. After her the top contenders are Halep,
Kvitova, Venus, and Azarenka.
Although Serena is again the favourite at Roland Garros,
Sharapova has been a finalist there 3 of the last 4 years and is a close
second. Next up would be Halep,
Muguruza, Kvitova, and Venus in my estimation.
If there is any tournament that could produce a surprise finalist it is
the French, as Safarova, Errani, Stosur, and Schiavone have shown in recent
years.
Venus has 5 Wimbledon titles and is rounding into the best
form we have seen from her in a while. I
put her just behind her sister and two-time champ Kvitova whose high stakes
game seems tailor-made for grass.
Sharapova is always a contender, and Azarenka and Halep should not be
counted out. Next I rate Muguruza, last
year’s finalist.
Vinci is the only non-slam-winner to beat Serena at the US
Open since Serena’s debut in 1998 (Spirlea), so it’s hard to pick against
Serena for this title. After Venus’
narrow loss to Serena in the 2015 edition I think she has the second best shot
at taking the title. I would rate
Pennetta next if she were playing, but take instead Halep whose game is
well-suited for these courts. I would
likely rate Sharapova more highly if it were not for her dismal record at the
USO, making the SF only once since her title in 2006. Next for me comes Azarenka who, despite her
low ranking, has been to the final twice, and is poised to improve.
The players most likely to make slam break-throughs in 2016
are Muguruza and Halep in my estimation.
Closely following would be the Swiss Bencic and Bacsinszky.
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