2016 Roland Garros Men Predictions

2016 Roland Garros Men Predictions

As we head into the clay major of 2016 it looks like there are four main contenders for the title, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, and Kei Nishikori.  And there are also some potential spoilers making noise:  Dominic Thiem, Nick Kyrgios, David Goffin, and Milos Raonic.  Nor should the defending champion be forgotten, Stan Wawrinka.

Djokovic is the #1 seed, but Roland Garros is the monkey on his back.  Like Lendl at Wimbledon, Borg at the US Open, or Sampras, McEnroe, or Federer at Garros (once upon a time), it is the tournament he can’t win despite three trips to the final.  Federer killed the monkey when he was 27; Lendl, Borg, McEnroe, and Sampras never did.

Increasingly, there is talk of Djokovic in the Greatest of All Time (GOAT) conversations:  his four year-end number one finishes, his stellar 2015 (and 2011), his current dominance, and the increasing slam tally – now at 11.  But if he doesn’t complete the career slam, can he really be seriously considered for the GOAT debate?

Novak turns 29 the day the tournament starts.  The clock of his career is ticking.  Is this his last best chance to win?  Last year was a golden opportunity he let slip away.  Finally, after 10 years with only one loss, Rafa Nadal was taken out before the final.  And it was Djokovic who accomplished this mighty feat.  But just like Nadal’s previous slayer, Robin Soderling, Djokovic made the final only to fall at the last hurdle.  Nadal avenged his defeat to Soderling in the final the following year.  Will he do the same now to Djokovic?

Last year was Nadal’s worst since he rose to prominence in 2005.  He dipped to #10 mid-year and lost 6 times on clay.  With Nadal reeling, the door was wide open for Djokovic, having his best ever year, to capitalize and claim the elusive Musketeers Cup.  But he was tentative in the final, and after handling the first set, opened the door for Stan Wawrinka to elevate his game and snatch the title.

Having now made the final in 2012, 2014, and 2015, surely Djokovic, winner of four of the last five slams, is the favourite to win.  Or is he?

Nadal had a bad start to the year losing in his first two clay tournaments and going only 12-6 (matches win-loss) through Miami at the end of March.  But then he dramatically reversed his fortunes claiming Monte Carlo and Barcelona and leads the tour with a 15-2 record on clay since April.

Clay record Apr 1 – May 15, 2016

Player	W-L	%
Nadal	15-2	88.2
Murray	12-2	85.7
Djokovic	9-2	81.8
Tsonga	4-1	80.0
Nishikori	10-3	76.9
Raonic	7-3	70.0
Kyrgios	7-3	70.0

So he seems to be a lot less beatable than 6 weeks ago.  He’s only lost twice at the French in 11 tries and has rounded into decent form in the nick of time.  This is not good news for Djokovic.

And then there’s Andy Murray.  Long an after-thought on dirt, Murray has claimed three clay titles in the last two years and just annexed the Italian trophy, a feat Federer has never managed despite four trips to the final.  Murray beat Novak in the final quite decisively, and sailed to victory with the loss of no sets and only 25 games for the whole tournament.  Djokovic had the more difficult road to the final, staring down two determined foes in Nadal and Nishikori, but it was Murray who was far crisper and efficient in the championship match.

For his part, Djokovic did not seem worried by the loss, claiming that his preparation for the French was exactly what he wanted:  lots of matches and confidence in his clay game – not to mention a title (Madrid) and a morale-boosting win over Nadal.  Last summer before the US Open, Murray beat Djokovic in a tune-up, but when crunch time came it was Djokovic who claimed the USO title. Can Andy write a different story now?

Nor should we ignore Kei Nishikori.  He notched the 3^rd-most wins in the clay tune-ups and pushed Djokovic hard in Rome. 

Turning to the ATP Race – which indicates performance for this calendar year – there are some unexpected inhabitants of the top echelon.  After the top four of Djokovic, Murray, Nadal and Nishikori, occupying spots #5-8 are Raonic, Thiem, Monfils, Goffin, with Kyrgios at #11.  This is new territory for Thiem, Goffin, and Kyrgios and shows the breakout year they are having.  Thiem beat Nadal on clay in February.  Goffin has wins over Wawrinka, Berdych, and Cilic this year.  Kyrgios has claimed five top-10 scalps since January and a tournament victory.

Meanwhile Roger Federer is languishing with only 11 wins this year after sitting out injured for two months.  He has just withdrawn from the tournament bringing to an end his all-time record streak of 65 consecutive appearances in slam events.  Second place in this category is held jointly by Wayne Ferreira and Feliciano Lopez who both have 56 tournament streaks.  If Lopez plays in this French he will move into sole possession of second place with 57 consecutive appearances.  Meanwhile, Djokovic has appeared in 45 straight slams and Wawrinka in 44.  Federer’s 67 slam appearances are second to the record 70 posted by Fabrice Santoro, and one ahead of Lleyton Hewitt’s 66.  Including pro slam tournaments before the open era, Ken Rosewall made 69 majors appearances.

Prior to this week, Wawrinka had posted a miserable 3-3 record in the clay tune-ups.  But is now at 6-3 with the final to play in Geneva against Cilic.  This is eerily similar to his 6-4 record last year over the same stretch.  My gut feeling is that Stan will likely not repeat this year, although with him, prior form can be close to meaningless.

Although Tsonga, Ferrer, Gasquet, and Berdych have had little to celebrate this year, history has shown that they should be underestimated only at one’s peril.  I’ll expect a deep run from at least one of them.

Before looking at the draw, I tried to build a prediction tool, based on past performance.  It includes a look at this year’s win-loss record, this year’s win-loss in the clay tune-ups, last year’s clay tune-ups, all slam performances since 2014, and Roland Garros record since 2012.  It excludes this week’s results, notably of Wawrinka and Thiem who are both through to finals.

It shows Djokovic leading this year, on clay last year, and at the last nine slams.  But Nadal leads on clay last year and at the last four Roland Garros.  Raonic is third for all matches this year and Wawrinka is second in the last 9 slams.  Overall, Djokovic leads by a comfortable margin, with Murray second, and Nadal a still very respectable third.  Predicting Wawrinka is a crap-shoot, in my opinion.  Nishikori’s listless record in slams, and at RG in particular, keep him low.  Despite their low finishes in this predictor, I would bet the other players will be especially wary of Kyrgios and Thiem.  They have great records this year and can play on clay.  A surprise slam victory, especially by Kyrgios, is possible, if quite unlikely.

In looking at this year’s draws, I divided each into quarters and then noted the ranking the bookies gave each seed in the quarter.  Since Djokovic was #1 by the bookies I gave him 32 points (there are 32 seeds).  Nadal (#2 by the bookies) got 31 points, and so forth.  Any seed not in the top 32 by the bookies got zero.  I then totalled the points for each quarter to get an idea of which were the strongest and weakest quarters.

In the 8 quarters of the men’s and women’s draws, all but two fell in the range of 104-122 points.  The two that were very different were Wawrinka’s quarter and Serena’s.  Wawrinka’s quarter is very weak with only 81 points and Serena’s very strong with 149 points.  This means that a high proportion of the favourites fell in Serena’s quarter, but few fell in Stan’s.

The Draw

First Quarter

The first quarter looks quite kind to Djokovic (seeded 1).  Roberto Bautista-Agut (14) has been having a fine year but will be hard-pressed to seriously trouble the mighty Serb in a potential fourth round (4R) encounter.  The other 4R here could feature battle-hardened veterans David Ferrer (11) and the eternal #7 Tomas Berdych (7).  Their head to head (h2h) is 8-6 for Ferrer and the surface would seem to favour him.  But Ferrer has been in questionable form this year and fell out of the top 10 after a 292-week residence there (nearly 6 years).  Berdych has done little this year as well, so it’s a toss-up.  Unless either can find a deep vein of former glory, neither looks likely to trouble Novak much.

Mention should probably be made of Pablo Cuevas (25) who beat Nadal on clay in February and won two tournaments in his native South America.  He’s slated to meet Berdych in 3R and could prove nettlesome. 

I’ll also be watching out for the first-rounder between hyped Next Gen ‘stars’ Borna Coric and Taylor Fritz.  The 18-year old Fritz has been a revelation this year, rising from #174 on Jan 1 to #67 in this coming Monday’s rankings.  Coric has been touted as the next big thing for about two years now, but has stalled a bit (if being ranked in the 40’s at age 19 can be called stalling).  He is the more comfortable on clay so should take it.

Djokovic d. Berdych

Second Quarter

According to my metric for determining quarter difficulty, Nadal’s quarter is just slightly easier than the most difficult bottom quarter that has fallen to Andy Murray (with a rating of 120 to 122).  But it appears that the second quarter was tailor made to thwart Nadal (4).  Rafa lucked into the #4 seed when Federer withdrew, and that eliminated the possibility that he would have to face Djokovic or Murray in the quarter-finals (QF).  He has still landed in Djokovic’s half, and their potential semi-final (SF) showdown looms tantalizingly.  But first he has to get there.

Monster-serving Sam Groth in 1R is a test that Nadal should pass, but 3R could bring up old nemesis Fabio Fognini (32) who beat Nadal three times last year.  Fognini has looked a little lost this year, so my money is on a Nadal who looks distinctly sharper than last year’s imposter.

Next up for Rafa could be the constantly surprising Dominic Thiem (13).  Out of nowhere, Thiem has been steadily rising up the ranks for two years and truly announced himself by taking out Nadal on clay in February.  Despite the improvements, I doubt his stunning one-hand backhand will be enough to remove Rafa over best-of-five-sets at Rafa’s most successful tournament.  But it could be an interesting test.

The other side of the quarter features Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (6), David Goffin (12), Philipp Kohlschreiber (24), and Joao Sousa (26) as seeds.  All are formidable clay players who could trouble Nadal, especially Tsonga who has four wins over Nadal and two SF showings at Roland Garros.  It would not be surprising to see Nadal fall to this gauntlet, but on balance the odds indicate that he will tough his way through.

Nadal d. Tsonga

Third Quarter

Based on the bookies’ guesses (and my metric), the draw gods were kind to the defending champion.  Wawrinka’s (3) form is so variable, however, nothing can be taken for granted.  The seeds nearby are not particularly daunting:  Jeremy Chardy (30), Victor Troicki (22), and Gilles Simon (16), although Simon can be unpredictably thorny at times.  Also here unseeded is Grigor Dimitrov who can cause problems for anyone, but probably won’t.  If Stan can keep his head about him, he should enjoy fairly untroubled passage to the QF.

Battling it out for the right to face him are seeds Raonic (8), Marin Cilic (10), Jack Sock (23), and Lucas Pouille (29).  Sock and Pouille are probably at their best on clay, but Raonic and Cilic are not.  Cilic has a large toolbox of gifts and is through to the final in Geneva this week against Stan, so that could be an interesting preview.  Raonic has also enjoyed some fine success on clay, making quarters at Madrid and Monte Carlo the last two years, the SF at Rome in 2014, and QF at the French, also in 2014.  An upset is certainly possible, but in this draw the odds are with Stan.

Wawrinka d. Raonic

Fourth Quarter

The whole tennis world just knows, or at least strongly suspects, that Nick Kyrgios (17) is going to rip through a slam draw at some point, probably soon, and become the next big thing.  Pundits are falling over themselves trying to predict when it will be.  But then, this is sport, so it’s possible that it will never happen.  To be fair, I actually think he will pull it off at some point.  Clay has definitely not looked like Kyrgios’ best surface, maybe the grass of Wimbledon will be more conducive to the big break through, but Nick’s talent is just so palpable it’s possible that even the heavy clay will not hold him back.

If he can make it to 3R, equalling his previous best here, he could run into the #9 seed, Richard Gasquet, a slouch by no means.  Should he survive that, he could face the very respectable talent of Nishikori (5).  Potentially after Nishikori, Kyrgios could face Murray (2), then Wawrinka, then Djokovic or Nadal.  While I’m not saying it’s impossible Kyrgios could string together these five consecutive upsets, I will go out on a limb (not really) and say the probability is extremely low.

Murray d. Nishikori

Semi-finals

Somehow I have once again predicted the top four seeds for the semis.  It may seem unadventurous to have done so, but those players are rated at the top for a reason.  There is actually some doubt in my mind, despite his recent return to form, that Rafael Nadal will make the semis.  His road is not easy.  Should he survive, his way will likely get even tougher if Djokovic is waiting there.  They were close in Rome – two hard-fought sets – but the fact is that Djokovic has won their last seven meetings – all in straight sets.

Djokovic has shown self-doubt this year.  His failures in Monte Carlo and Rome should not be completely ignored.  And then there’s Rafa’s legendary tenacity, and his previous 9 titles here.  Add in the weight of pressure and expectation for Djokovic and the result is far from certain.  But I’m still going with Nole.

Djokovic d. Nadal

In the other potential semi, Murray has a rather unconvincing 8-7 lead in the h2h with Wawrinka.  In fact, Stan has won the last three meetings, with Murray’s last win coming in 2012.  Advantage Stan.  But despite the plum draw, I’m not 100% convinced Stan will capitalize on it and make the semi berth.  Murray, on the other hand, has looked extremely solid on clay the last two years.  He could face a significant challenge in the quarters from Nishikori or Kyrgios, so even if he wins he may be tired coming in.  But I think Andy is a better bet to make it this far than anyone else in his half.  I think it’s high time he reversed his recent losses to Wawrinka, and I expect he will if given the chance.

Murray d. Wawrinka

Final

My survey of experts and journalists since release of the draw earlier today shows that the bookies and 7 experts pick Djokovic for the title, 3 experts pick Nadal, and 3 pick Murray.  So the majority, and the money, are for Djokovic to join the career grand slam club. 

But it’s also distinctly possible that we could see a Nadal-Murray final, and in that dynamic I think title #10 for Nadal would be likely, if not certain.  Murray looked good taking out Nadal in Madrid.

My personal feeling is that Murray represents the biggest threat to Nole this year.  Despite the idea that it seemed like a half-hearted effort Djokovic made in the loss to Murray in Rome, I think that Novak’s testiness during the match, and his near escapes from Nadal, Nishikori, and Bellucci (!) earlier in the tournament, reveal a trouble state of mind, or at least a worried one.

However, if it should come down to a final between the top two seeds, I think Djokovic will have an inner confidence that he can beat Andy, just like he has so many times before.  If it should be Wawrinka that Djokovic faces in the final, I think Novak would be a bit more nervous and prone to self-destruction.  But regardless, I think he will have a long talk with himself beforehand, find his inner zen, and see his way through.

Djokovic d. Murray

Bookies odds from bet365.com on May 19 before the draw was made:

1	Djokovic	1.8
2	Nadal	4.5
3	Murray	5
4	Wawrinka	15
5	Nishikori	26
6	Thiem	41
7	Tsonga	51
8	Berdych	67
9	Kyrgios	67
10	Raonic	67
11	Dimitrov	101
12	Ferrer	101
13	Cilic	101
14	AZverev	101
15	Fognini	151
16	Isner	151
17	Gasquet	151
18	Bautista-Agut	151
19	Dolgopolov	151
20	Tomic	151
21	Goffin	151
22	Gulbis	201
23	Verdasco	201
24	Simon	201
25	Almagro	201
26	Paire	201
27	KAnderson	201
28	Robredo	201
29	Cuevas	201
30	Janowicz	201
31	Garcia Lopez	251
32	Coric	251
33	FLopez	251
34	Sock	301
35	Bellucci	301