2016 Roland Garros Women's Predictions

Roland Garros Women 2016 Predictions

It is hard to tell if Serena really is the greatest female athlete the sport has ever seen, or if she just looks good because she’s in such a weak era.  She has not won the last two slams and has claimed only one title (last week in Rome) since August.  Yet she is still far and away #1 in the rankings.  Looking at the number of WTA points her challengers have in the top 5, the obvious conclusion would seem to be that she is in a weak era.  The points are low compared to other years.

Although she nearly won the grand slam last year, falling two matches short with her loss in the US Open semifinals, she is not ruling the sport with the imperiousness of a Graf, Navratilova, or Evert.  The tale of the last four years has been one of occasional periods of brilliance for her, and long periods of less decisive results.

Her major challengers should be other multi-slam winners.  But her sister Venus (7 slams) has battled health problems that have kept her from her best, has not won a slam in 8 years, and is usually ranked in the 11-20 range.  Maria Sharapova (5 slams) has been the de facto #2 for the last 5 years but is out pending the results of her doping hearing.  Justine Henin (7 slams) retired early, as did Kim Clijsters (4 slams).  Martina Hingis (5 slams) is playing only doubles.  Even Li Na (2 slams) is gone, having babies.

So that leaves the notoriously unpredictable Petra Kvitova (2 slams), Svetlana Kuznetsova (2 slams) who hasn’t won a slam since 2009, and Victoria Azarenka (2 slams).  Azarenka is probably the most legitimate challenger to the top, with a yearend #1 ranking in 2012.  But she has struggled in the last two years and has only recently regained the top 10.  Despite her rather questionable results on clay, having only once made it as far as the Roland Garros semifinals, the bookies have her as #2 in their odds list.

This is a rather pathetic state of affairs, especially given Azarenka’s weak play in the French Open tune-up events.  A comparable record on the men’s circuit would likely only land her in 5^th to 8^th place in the bookies’ estimations.

The next group on the list of odds produces Simona Halep who won Madrid and made the French final in 2014, this year’s Australian Open winner Angelique Kerber, and Garbine Muguruza who upset Serena two years ago at Roland Garros and made the Wimbledon final last year.  A French title by any of these, including Azarenka, would have to be considered very surprising.  And a title from anyone else would be even more shocking.

All this would seem to point to an easy path to victory for Serena.  She certainly looked determined and invincible in Rome last week.  But recent history has shown that nothing can be taken for granted in women’s tennis and Serena’s spot on the podium is far from guaranteed.  Perhaps the draw will shed some light on what may happen over the next two weeks.

In looking at this year’s draw, I divided each into quarters and then noted the ranking the bookies gave each seed in the quarter.  Since Serena was #1 by the bookies I gave her 32 points (there are 32 seeds).  Azarenka (#2 by the bookies) got 31 points, and so forth.  Any seed not in the top 32 by the bookies got zero.  I then totalled the points for each quarter to get an idea of which were the strongest and weakest quarters.

In the 8 quarters of the men’s and women’s draws, all but two fell in the range of 104-122 points.  The two that were very different were Wawrinka’s quarter and Serena’s.  Wawrinka’s quarter is very weak with only 81 points and Serena’s very strong with 149 points.  This means that a high proportion of the favourites fell in Serena’s quarter.

The Draw

First Quarter

The bookies’ top two favourites before the draw, Serena (seeded 1) and Azarenka(6) have both landed in the same quarter, and that, along with the presence of 7^th ranked (by the bookies) Carla Suarez Navarro (12), makes this the toughest quarter of the women’s draw.  2008 champ Ana Ivanovic (14) is also here, along with always-dangerous hard-hitting Dominika Cibulkova (22) the former Aus Open runner-up, and semi-finalist here in 2009.

If Serena or Azarenka suffer an early mis-step, there are plenty in the quarter who could take over.  The good news for Serena is she would only have to face one of CSN, Azarenka, or Cibulkova.

SWilliams d. Azarenka

Second Quarter

The second quarter is head-lined by Aus Open champion Angelique Kerber (3) who showed some clay chops with the title in Stuttgart this year.  Fast rising 19-year old Daria Kasatkina (29) has a popcorn first round against Anna-Lena Friedsam who made the final in San Antonio and fourth round (4R) at the Aus Open.

Surprise Aus semi-finalist Johanna Konta (20) has backed up that result well and is slated to meet Madison Keys (15) in 3R.  Keys is fresh off a finalist appearance in Rome where Serena dubbed her a certain future #1.  No pressure, Madison!

The fading glories of Venus Williams (9) and Jelena Jankovic (23) are slated for a 3R clash and could then run into last year’s semi-finalist Timea Bacsinszky (8).  Bacsinszky would first have to get past the winner of another popcorn first-rounder staged between rapidly-advancing Laura Siegemund and reborn Eugenie Bouchard.  Timea’s 3R could feature the wily slices of Monica Niculescu (31). 

I’ll also have an eye out for Louisa Chirico who’s rocketed up to #77 in the rankings on the back of a SF showing in the Madrid 1000 – after working through qualies.  She’s near Venus in the draw.

Kerber is capable of anything, as she showed by beating Serena in Australia, and all eyes will be watching how she handles the pressure of being a slam winner.  A fourth-rounder with Keys could be anyone’s guess.  Nor should Bacsinszky be underestimated.  It could be a toss-up among these three.

Keys d. Bacsinszky

Third Quarter

2009 champ, Svetlana Kuznetsova (13) had the temerity to beat Serena in Miami, but is by no means a lock for her 1R against Yaroslava Shvedova.  Garbine Muguruza (4) gets top billing in this quarter and could face slam-loving Ekaterina Makarova (27) in 3R, owner of six QF-or-better slam appearances.

The next highest seed, Roberta Vinci (7), has not thriven at Roland Garros, making 4R only once.  By far her best slam results have been at the US Open where she’s made her only slam quarter-finals:  three times, including last year’s runner-up.  Czech mates Petra Kvitova (10) and Karolina Pliskova (17) could battle it out in 3R, giving the winner an excellent shot at the QF in the Vinci section.

To be honest, all the favourites in this section look flaky for one reason or another with the possible exception of Muguruza, who beat Serena at the French two years ago and made the Wimbledon final last year.  I’ll pick her over that incredibly talented but maddeningly inconsistent two-time Wimbledon champ.

Muguruza d. Kvitova

Fourth Quarter

Agnieszka Radwanska (2) is the top seed here.  She’s only ever made one QF at Roland Garros, despite 11 QF-or-better at the other slams (although none at USO!)  She’s been a paragon of consistency for the last eight months, racking up four titles including the “Fifth biggest” WTA finals.  But she crashed out in her first round in Madrid and didn’t play Rome… not to mention that clay is far from her best surface.  I’ll expect an early exit.

Taking advantage could be this week’s Strasbourg finalist Caroline Garcia, or possibly Barbora Strycova (30) who’s slated to meet ARad in the third round.  The other seeds in this half of the quarter are Sara Errani (16) who’s been dreadful all year (but did make the RG final in 2012), and Sloane Stephens (19) who’s been blowing hot and cold this year with three tournament wins but also four first-round losses.

The next highest seed is Simona Halep (6), the 2014 French Open runner-up.  She’s been quite inconsistent the last year and a half, but finally pulled things together to claim the clay title in Madrid, only to follow it up with a first-round loss in Rome.  I’m not sure whether she’s more likely to win the title or lose in the first round.

Halep could get an interesting test in 3R from 18-year old Jelena Ostapenko (32) who gave very sharp notice of her potential by making the final of the 900-point event in Doha and taking the first set from Suarez Navarro before succumbing.  Also here is Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (Wimbledon SF 1999!) who has just blasted into the Strasbourg final losing only 3 games total in her last two matches – the definition of a dangerous wildcard.  She is a possible 2R opponent for Ostapenko.

And let’s not forget last year’s Roland Garros finalist Lucie Safarova (11).   She’s struggled mightily with injury and form since last year’s breakout run, but showed signs of life with a clay title in Prague at the beginning of May.  Her final round opponent there was 2010 French runner-up Samantha Stosur (21), whom Safarova could meet here in 3R.  Either of them or Halep are most likely to emerge from this quarter in my opinion.

Halep d. Stephens

Semi-finals

Professing any degree of certainty in women’s draws these days seems a little fatuous, but of the four semi-finalists I’ve picked I feel the least uncertainty about Serena and Muguruza, so I’ll pick them for the final.  In an actual match between Muguruza and Halep I would probably pick Halep, but I think Muguruza has a better chance of actually making it this far.

SWilliams d. Keys

Muguruza d. Halep

Final

When Serena is on, she’s just about unstoppable.  Her record in slam finals is an astonishing 21-5.  So it’s hard to pick against her.  The head to head stands at 3-1 for Muguruza.  Against Halep, Serena is 7-1.

SWilliams d. Muguruza 

This would be Serena’s 22^nd slam singles title, tying her with Steffi Graf but still two behind Margaret Court’s total of 24.  Serena would also tie Graf’s unique achievement of winning each of the slam titles at least four times.

Bookies odds from bet365.com on May 19 before the draw was made:

1	SWilliams	3
2	Azarenka	6
3	Halep	7
4	Muguruza	11
5	Kerber	17
6	Kvitova	21
7	Suarez Navarro	26
8	Keys	34
9	Bacsinszky	41
10	ARadwanska	41
11	Safarova	41
12	Bouchard	41
13	Stephens	41
14	Ivanovic	51
15	Makarova	67
16	Kuznetsova	67
17	Mladenovic	67
18	KaPliskova	67
19	Kasatkina	67
20	Cibulkova	67
21	Konta	81
22	Siegemund	81
23	Svitolina	81
24	Gavrilova	81
25	Stosur	101
26	Errani	101
27	Begu	101
28	Vinci	101
29	Garcia	126
30	Lisicki	126
31	Petkovic	126
32	VWilliams	126
33	Jankovic	151
34	Cornet	151
35	Konjuh	201
36	Babos	201
37	Strycova	201
38	Giorgi	201
39	Ostapenko	201
40	Cirstea	201
41	Watson	251
42	Pavlyuchenkova	251
43	Vesnina	251
44	Peng	251
45	McHale	251
46	Puig	251
47	Vekic	501
48	Diyas	501
49	Tsurenko	501
50	Beck	501
51	Van Uytvanck	501
52	Robson	501
53	Lucic-Baroni	501
54	Flipkens	501