Australian Open Men 2017 – Preview

Australian Open Men 2017 – Preview

Novak Djokovic has won this title six times.  Andy Murray has been in the final five times without a win.  Federer and Nadal are both returning from injury.  Del Potro is out with injury, and Wawrinka is at his customary #4 in the world.  Djokovic slumped at the end of last year, allowing Murray to claim the yearend #1 spot.  But Novak beat Andy in the final of Doha last week.  Is Djokovic ‘back’ or is Murray still the ‘real’ #1?  Brad Gilbert says he would be shocked if one of these two doesn’t win, but which is the favourite?  The bookies have them at dead even odds.

First Quarter

Murray gets the #1 seed at a slam tournament for the first time in his career.  His first few rounds look pretty tame.  Seventeen-year-old Alex De Minaur won a round this week in Sydney and is nearby in the draw, but is of interest likely to only true geeks of the sport.  Sam Querrey (seeded #31) lurks as potential foil for Murray in the third round (3R), the same round that Querrey used to oust Djokovic at last year’s Wimbledon.  John Isner (19) and his big serve should never be overlooked, and he could face Lucas Pouille (16) in 3R.  Pouille made the quarter-finals (QF) of the last two slams he played, so must be considered dangerous, even if his results have been rather middling since then.  Their winner might face Murray in the fourth.

The lower half of this quarter is extremely interesting with the names of Kei Nishikori (5) and the redoubtable Roger Federer, seeded at a shocking #17 – Federer’s lowest seeding for a decade and a half.  The mighty Fed hasn’t played in half a year and watched his ranking plummet during that time.  He has had relatively bad luck to end up with two top 5 players in his quarter, three from the top 10.  Although his first few rounds look to be relatively easy and he can face no higher than a qualifier until 3R, that first round qualifier is Jurgen Melzer who won their last match (albeit in 2011) and has been ranked as high as #8.

In round 3, Fed could face Tomas Berdych (10).  Roger has mostly owned Berdych, even if Tomas has six wins over him.  Nothing should be taken for granted and Berdych has been strongest at the Aus Open, making at least the QF here for the last six years, twice in the SF.  On the other hand, Federer has been in the semis or better for all but one of the last 13 years.  I give a slight edge to Roger, although it is far from certain.

The fourth round (4R) could pit Federer/Berdych against Nishikori.  Kei has been in the QF here three times, but never higher.  That match is pretty much a toss-up among any of these three players.  I might give an edge to a match-tough Federer over Nishikori, but after such a long layoff for Roger, I think a healthy Nishikori should be slightly favoured.  Is Nishikori healthy?  The winner of this adder’s nest will likely have the ‘privilege’ of facing Murray.  It’s a tough quarter and heavy-sledding all around.

Murray d. Federer

Second Quarter

Major winners Stan Wawrinka (4) and Marin Cilic (7) are the top seeds in the second quarter.  Wawrinka’s first match against Martin Klizan is far from a ‘gimme’, and likewise is his 2R against either Federico Delbonis or Steve Johnson (the highest-ranked unseeded man in the draw).  Should Stan survive, he could face semi-finalist in Sydney this week, Victor Troicki (29) in the third.  Next up could come a very challenging match in 4R against Nick Kyrgios (14).  Kyrgios is massively talented, aged 21, and has history with Wawrinka.  Two years ago in Canada, Nick said nasty things to Stan about Stan’s girlfriend on a changeover and it was caught by the courtside microphone.  A debacle and fine ensued.  Their head-to-head is tied at 2-2.  Wawrinka probably has more depth and maturity in both his head and his game, but Kyrgios’ talent is undeniable.  It looks to be a challenging ride to the QF.

The lower half of this quarter features Cilic (7) potentially against Bernard Tomic (27) in 3R, and Jack Sock (23) possibly against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12) in the other third rounder.  All are about equally dangerous here by my estimation.  Normally I would place Tomic a fair bit behind the other three, but he has generally thriven at his home slam, making 4R three times.  Tsonga, finalist here in 2008, has not looked particularly up-to-snuff of late, but generally raises his game for slams.  Sock made only 2R in both previous times he played here, but has been on a bit of a roll and is into the Auckland final this week.  And while Cilic has done little at the AO in the last few years, he was in the SF in 2010 and holds a US Open title from 2014.  Just slightly I favour Tsonga of this group.

Wawrinka d. Tsonga

Third Quarter

This quarter is chock full of rising young talents like Coric, Tiafoe, Nishioka, Medvedev, Escobedo, Jasika, Mmoh, Donaldson, Fritz, and Alexander Zverev (24).  It would seemingly defy the odds if one of them didn’t get to at least the third round.  Zverev is surely the most likely to live up to his seeding and do so.  His opponent there could be Rafael Nadal (9).  Nadal has struggled mightily the last two years, especially at the slams, but everything about his game suggests that he is still capable of a very deep run here.  Will he be able to stay focussed and make smart shots? 

Getting past 3R might be tougher than what lies ahead in the fourth where Nadal is seeded to meet either streaky Philipp Kohlschreiber (32) or terminally inconsistent Gael Monfils (6) fresh off his most consistent year.

Milos Raonic (3) is the highest seed in the third quarter and faces tricky Dustin Brown in the first round.  Overall it could be fairly smooth sailing for the Canadian, until he runs into Roberto Bautista-Agut (13) in the fourth.

It will probably come down to Nadal or AZverev for the right to face Raonic…  although another consistent run from Monfils is not impossible.  After all he did make the QF here last here.

Raonic d. AZverev

Fourth Quarter

It’s strange to see Djokovic (2) at the bottom of a draw and not in the top drawer where we’ve grown accustomed to his name over most of the last five years.  His first rounder could be a very exciting tussle with Fernando Verdasco, who took Nadal out of the first round here last year in a display of shot-making prowess rarely seen.  Verdasco made the semis here in 2009, losing deep into the night in five very close sets to Nadal.  Novak will not be thrilled for this tough opener, but will surely be worked into a fever of psychological readiness.  I expect he will crush Fernando.

After that there should be little to trouble Novak until Round 4 where he could meet Grigor Dimitrov (15) or Richard Gasquet (18).  Of these two, Gasquet surely has the better long term record, but whereas he is on the way down (it seems), Dimitrov is rapidly regaining lost ground.  Last week in Brisbane, Dimitrov took out Johnson, Thiem, Raonic, and Nishikori in an impressive run to the title.  Again Djokovic should be on high alert.  It could be a real test of Djokovic’s resolve, but if he’s concentrating, he should pull through.

The other portion of this quarter is led by Dominic Thiem (8) and David Goffin (11).  Thiem had (another) breakout year last year, settling into the top 10, but has wallowed over the last six months.  Nearby, 38-year old Tommy Haas returns, and could face 35-year old Feliciano Lopez (28) in the second.  And 37-year old Ivo Karlovic (20) is also in this section.  Karlovic’s likely 3R would be against Goffin.  It’s a rather fluffy eighth that would be a golden opportunity for an in-form Thiem.  But I think Goffin is more likely to take advantage.

Djokovic d. Goffin

Semi-finals

Murray and Wawrinka have a head-to-head of 10-7 in favour of Murray.  That’s pretty close.  On hard courts they are 8-5 for Murray.  At slams they are 3-2 for Murray.  There is little to choose between them.  Based on recent form, I think it more likely Murray will get this far, making it to his sixth final.

Murray d. Wawrinka

A match between the #2 and #3 players might seem tough to call, but Djokovic has more than double Raonic’s total of ATP points.  He also owns an 8-0 h2h over the Canadian, not to mention 12 slam titles.  But Raonic is determined, and his consistent path of improvement over the last five years means no one is taking him for granted.  If Djokovic is in a funky head space, this could go either way.  But recent signs from last week’s Doha tournament were very positive for Novak.

Djokovic d. Raonic

Final

Given Djokovic's six titles and Murray's five runner-ups, the choice would seem clear were it not for Novak’s shaky play over the last half year, and the rock solid dependability of Murray.  But when they are facing each other on the big stage, all the gains of the recent past may fade away, and I expect that Murray will remember his many losses here in the final, four of them to Djokovic, and history will repeat itself.  I dearly hope that I am wrong.

Djokovic d. Murray

The draw is here.

Odds from bet365.com on 12 Jan 2017

1	Djokovic	2.62
2	Murray	2.62
3	Wawrinka	13
4	Nadal	15
5	Raonic	17
6	Federer	21
7	Nishikori	26
8	Kyrgios	34
9	Dimitrov	34
10	Cilic	51
11	Tsonga	67
12	AZverev	67
13	Berdych	81
14	Thiem	81
15	Ferrer	126
16	Monfils	126
17	Isner	151
18	Gasquet	151
19	Sock	151
20	Goffin	151
21	Bautista-Agut	151
22	Simon	201
23	Troicki	251
24	FLopez	301
25	Dolgopolov	301
26	Paire	301
27	Fognini	301
28	Verdasco	301
29	Donaldson	301
30	Brown	751
31	De Minaur	1001
32	Escobedo	1001