Australian Open Women 2017 – Preview

Australian Open Women 2017 – Preview

Sharapova is out on a drug suspension, Kvitova is recovering from a knife attack, Azarenka is off being a mother, Keys is out with an injury, a bunch of recent slam winners have retired (Pennetta, Li, Bartoli, Clijsters, even Ivanovic), in fact only one other former champion will play in Australia – is there any chance Serena Williams will NOT win this Australian Open?

The best bets to deny Serena the title are probably last year’s defending champ Angelique Kerber, US Open runner up Karolina Pliskova, last year’s French Open champ Garbine Muguruza, world #3 Aggie Radwanska, #4 Simona Halep, Yearend Championship winner Dominika Cibulkova, or last year’s semi-finalist here #10 Johanna Konta.

First Quarter

The #1 seed is last year’s champ, Angelique Kerber.  She’s got a forgettable 1-2 (win-loss) record this year, but that might be all she needs as a warm up to defending her first major title.  Her first round opponent, Lesia Tsurenko, is no slouch, featuring in the semi-final (SF) of Hobart this week.  In the third, Krystina Pliskova (twin of world #5, Karolina) or Shvedova could be dangerous.  Things only get tougher from there, with dangerous young 19-year old Daria Kasatkina (#23 seed) or maybe a revitalized Eugenie Bouchard in the fourth.

In the lower section of this quarter, Garbine Muguruza (7) could have a straight-forward run to the fourth round, where she is seeded to meet Carla Suarez Navarro (10).  The head to head between these Spaniards is 1-1, so anything is possible.  The winner could give Kerber an almighty tussle, the head-to-heads favour Muguruza 4-3 and Kerber over CSN 5-3.  Muguruza has been in questionable form since her Roland Garros triumph in June, but has looked much sharper already this year.  CSN has never been past the quarters of a major.  I think Kerber might get nervous and her early rounds look dangerous.

Muguruza d. Kasatkina

Second Quarter

The highest seeds here are Simona Halep (4) and Svetlana Kuznetsova (8).  Kuznetsova ended last year strongly and used to be a good player.  She finished in third round or better at Melbourne Park for 10 straight years, ending in 2013.  In the last three years, she’s won only one match here.  Halep has been to the quarters twice here, and a deep run would surprise no one.  Nor would a first round exit, like in 2016 and 2013.  In short this section is wide open.

Taking advantage could be Venus Williams (13) who made the quarters here in 2015 and the Wimbledon semis last year – putting to bed any doubts she can still rise up for the big occasion at age 36.  Also here is Monica Puig (29), Olympic gold medalist, a possible third round opponent for Halep.  Halep’s opener against Shelby Rogers could be tricky, but if she gets through, I’d favour her to win a 4R encounter with Venus.

Kuznetsova could face last week’s Shenzhen winner, Katerina Siniakova, in the third round, and possibly Elina Svitolina in the fourth.  I consider Svitolina an extremely dangerous player.  She’s already notched a win over #1 Kerber this year, adding to last year’s collection of scalps from all of 2016’s slam winners:  Kerber, Muguruza, and most surprisingly, Serena, whom she took out of the Olympics.

Svitolina d. Halep

Third Quarter

Perennial top-fiver, Aggie Radwanska (3), leads this quarter and faces dangerous Pironkova (a former Wimbledon semi-finalist) in the first round.  The third round could bring up wildly unpredictable Alize Cornet (28) for Aggie, and the fourth could pit her against former US Open winner Samantha Stosur (18), now 32 years old, or streaky Elena Vesnina (14) who made the semis of Wimbledon in 2016.  Radwanska is always reasonably solid and has been in the semis here two of the last three years.  But she is vulnerable to big-hitters who can blast through her stylish collection of spins, impossible gets, and weird angles.

The other half of this quarter is head-lined by US Open runner-up Karolina Pliskova (5) who just took the title in Brisbane, beating Svitolina and Cornet in the last two rounds.  Dangerous 19-year old Jelena Ostapenko could meet Pliskova in the third round.  The fourth could bring up another 19-year old, Ana Konjuh, who is the highest ranked player not to be seeded in this draw.  Daria Gavrilova (22) and Timea Bacsinszky (12) are other possible fourth-rounders for Pliskova.  I expect Pliskova to mow down the competition with her smooth and powerful stroking.  She will have her hands full however, overcoming a 0-7 deficit in head to head with Radwanska.

KaPliskova d ARadwanska

Fourth Quarter

Here at last is the reigning Doyenne of tennis, 22-time slam champion Serena Williams (2), relegated ignominiously to the bottom of the draw.  Serena has a potentially tricky opening against yet another dangerous 19-year old, Belinda Bencic, who beat her two years ago in Canada.  The second round might feature Lucie Safarova, French Open runner-up to Serena in 2015.  Caroline Garcia (21) and Barbora Strycova (16) are potential fourth round opponents for the mighty queen.

The top half of this section is anchored by Dominika Cibulkova (6) who was a finalist here in 2014, won the season-ending Championships in 2016, but who has looked shaky this year.  In women’s tennis, recent form can mean almost nothing, so I’m not sure what to make of Cibulkova’s chances.  Her opener against Denisa Allertova is a landmine, and a possible 3R against Ekaterina Makarova who has been to the round of 16 or better here for the last six years, including a SF showing and a defeat of Serena, is far from straight forward.

If that wasn’t enough, last year’s semifinalist, Johanna Konta (9), and two-time US Open runner-up, Caroline Wozniacki (17) also feature in this section of the draw.  Throw in yet another dangerous 19-year old in Naomi Osaka, and it’s a real hornet’s nest.  Konta has been in good form in the two weeks that contribute to this year, but it would be hard to bet against a confident Cibulkova.

Serena Williams d. Konta

Semi-finals

I’m not at all confident in my first quarter prediction naming Muguruza to the semi, and could easily see Kerber finding a way through.  The top half looks quite open to me, and Svitolina is far from a sure bet for the second quarter.  But I have to pick someone so it will be inexperience over inconsistency.

Svitolina d. Muguruza

At the US Open, Pliskova stunned Serena in the semis to make her first slam final.  Serena rarely loses to the same person twice in a row, but such is Pliskova’s prowess that I think it a possibility.  Serena will have on her side the experience of having been in this situation so many times before, plus I’m counting on a bloodlust for revenge.

SWilliams d. KaPliskova

Final

I think Serena must be the favourite to claim a 23^rd slam singles title, but seeing a newcomer like Svitolina or Pliskova rise up for their first would not be a surprise, especially since that happened twice last year.

SWilliams d. Svitolina

The draw is here.

Odds from bet365.com on 12 Jan 2017

1	SWilliams	4.00
2	Kerber	4.50
3	KaPliskova	8
4	Muguruza	11
5	Halep	11
6	ARadwanska	21
7	Cibulkova	26
8	Wozniacki	26
9	Konta	26
10	Svitolina	34
11	Bouchard	41
12	Bencic	51
13	Kasatkina	51
14	Safarova	67
15	Osaka	67
16	Kuznetsova	67
17	Puig	81
18	VWilliams	81
19	Makarova	101
20	Garcia	101
21	Stosur	101
22	Ostapenko	101
23	Bertens	126
24	Siniakova	126
25	Konjuh	126
26	Mladenovic	151
27	SuarezNavarro	151
28	Gavrilova	151
29	Pavlyuchenkova	151
30	Vandeweghe	151
31	Giorgi	151
32	SZhang	151